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2026-10-01 Iraq
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Last Americans leave Iraq, leaving dangerous vacuum in region
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[CapitalBG] After more than two decades, the US is closing its last bases in Iraq in the midst of war with Iran
Removing targets
The Americans who arrived in 2003 to topple Saddam Hussein are now leaving Iraq. According to available information, American forces are due to leave their last bases by the end of the week, with Reuters reporting that Iran and its allies are celebrating the withdrawal as a victory. The coalition mission, which began as a central element of the post-September 11, 2001 strategy, is ending without a triumph.
The withdrawal was not improvised, but agreed upon in 2024 under Joe Biden and is now being implemented by the Donald Trump administration, which is at war with Iran. By mid-2025, about 2,500 American soldiers remained, of which approximately 2,000 were at the Ain al-Assad base, which has repeatedly been the target of attacks by Tehran and its proxies. The framework program, finalized in July 2025, withdrew combat forces from central and western Iraq and redirected the remaining counterterrorism activities and training to Iraqi Kurdistan. The final withdrawal is also the moment when the mission against the Islamic State officially ends.
WHY IS WASHINGTON LEAVING?
Capital sources in Baghdad point to two forces behind the decision. Iran's influence in Iraq has grown since the US toppled Saddam, making a permanent American presence increasingly difficult to justify. Trump also promised during his campaign to end the country's long wars abroad. Washington now says it wants economic relations with Iraq - a major oil producer and a significant market - rather than a military engagement.
It should be noted that the withdrawal is not truly complete, as a significant diplomatic presence and solid US military capacity remain in the region. Supporters of the withdrawal frame this argument in a friendlier way. They interpret it as a move away from permanent garrisons that militias could regularly attack, towards a more flexible deterrent system.
A VICTORY THAT TEHRAN WILL NOT SQUANDER
For Iran and its partners, the symbolism is the biggest prize. A commander of the pro-Iranian Islamic Resistance in Iraq alliance called the withdrawal a historic victory and a crushing defeat for the American project. Iran has said its ultimate goal is to expel American troops from the entire Middle East, and now it is presenting Iraq as proof that its “Axis of Resistance” is working. Iraqi analyst Jassim al-Bahadli believes Tehran stands to gain the most, as the coalition has been a check on Iranian influence for years.
Baghdad's position is more delicate. The Iraqi government must balance pressure from armed groups linked to Iran, remnants of the Islamic State group and its own security institutions. Iraqi security experts who spoke to Capital warned that the withdrawal could allow other US enemies to return, including the Islamic State group.
KURDISTAN AND THE GAPS IN AIR DEFENSE
The most specific danger is in the north. The Iraqi Kurdistan region, once a key U.S. security partner, is now a major target for Iran and its proxies. Kurdish sources say nearly a thousand drones and missiles have hit the region since the start of the Israeli-U.S. military campaign against Iran in February. They say the region has no air defenses of its own and forces on the ground feel extremely vulnerable.
The coalition is withdrawing all its personnel and equipment, including Patriot systems and the Kurdistan Regional Government missile defense system, which had been intercepting Iranian missiles and drones. The UAE-based newspaper The National reports that this could lead to a wider gap in regional security, as these weapons have repeatedly crossed Iraqi airspace on their way to other targets, so the loss of interceptors and radar coverage has implications beyond Iraq’s borders. Iraq’s plan to build a national air defense system within three years has drawn skepticism, with no Iraqi force yet able to replace the American capability.
Experts at the US Atlantic Council are also looking at the implications for Syria, where they see both risks and opportunities, as each of these areas was linked to the US presence in Iraq. Now that Damascus is seen as a transit hub for Iraqi oil exports in the context of the shutdown of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the stakes are higher - as is the danger of attacks on infrastructure.
WHAT DOES ALL THIS MEAN FOR AMERICAN POWER?
The withdrawal comes at an awkward time for U.S. prestige. Analysts have long warned that sudden withdrawals create a strategic vacuum that rivals are rushing to fill. They add that Washington fears a repeat of Kabul or Saigon, which could damage its position in the international hierarchy. Moscow and Beijing will not miss the opportunity to claim that a superpower has left the war under fire from a rival, although the United States may respond that the timetable was set in 2024, before the current war with Iran began, and that leaving on schedule is a show of control, not weakness.
The practical effect on the US position is likely to be a reallocation of resources. With fewer troops in Iraq, there are fewer places where proxy forces can strike against Americans and draw Washington into an escalation. This helps the goal of ending wars with an uncertain end. But it also deprives the US of access to intelligence, early warning, and the depth of basing in close proximity to Iran. Much of the burden now falls on bases in the Persian Gulf, Jordan, the Navy, and long-range strike and missile defense. The lapse in Iraq’s air defenses shows how one weak spot weakens the entire regional system.
Iraq borders Turkey, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, all of which have already been targeted by Iranian airstrikes. Analysts are unanimous in their assessment that the consequences of the US withdrawal will not be long in coming.
The last American convoy will cross the border this week, but the question it raises will remain open. The US chose to leave and now must show that it can still influence events in Iraq and the region from the outside, and Iran will spend the coming months trying to prove that the US is losing ground.
United States has ended Operation Inherent Resolve
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin
[ColonelCassad] The US has completed Operation Inherent Resolve.
The Pentagon announced that it has completed the withdrawal of American troops from bases in Iraqi Kurdistan and concluded Operation Inherent Resolve (the official pretext being the fight against ISIS). These bases have been used against Iran in recent years and have received a significant number of missiles and drones over the past year. Iran has long sought their withdrawal through a combination of political pressure from pro-Iranian forces in Iraq, strikes against Iranian proxies in Iraq, and its own strikes against them.
The US's failures in its aggression against Iran accelerated the withdrawal process. The remaining bases were handed over to the Iraqi army and other Iraqi security forces. Meanwhile, the US is effectively abandoning the Kurdish project, which has already sparked widespread complaints, claiming that we once again trusted the Americans, and they have screwed us over again. The US hopes that by losing the pretext to fight against the American occupation, Iranian proxy forces in Iraq will be weakened.
During the aggression against Iran, they regularly attacked American assets in Iraq and launched drones against Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The Iraqi government hopes to integrate them into the regular security forces. The process of handing over heavy weapons is planned to be completed by March 2027, and full integration by mid-summer 2027.
In my opinion, as long as the aggression against Iran continues, this will be problematic, especially since there are numerous ways to sabotage such integration, especially given the special position of the already integrated Hashd al-Shaabi and the Shiite bloc. In any case, the struggle for influence in Iraq between the US and Iran will continue.
The US has simply lost one of the most important tools in this struggle. Iraq, due to its own weakness, is effectively serving as a platform for this confrontation. P.S. At the same time, the ISIS terrorist network in Iraq has not gone away. Terrorist attacks are organized more or less regularly.
More from regnum.ru
The US and its allies have officially ended the operation against ISIS in Iraq.
The United States and coalition allies have officially concluded Operation Inherent Resolve against ISIS (ISIS, a terrorist organization banned in Russia) in Iraq. This was announced by Pentagon Chief Spokesman Sean Parnell on September 30.
According to him, the campaign concluded in accordance with the joint US-Iraqi statement of September 2024. The organized withdrawal of coalition forces and equipment from the Erbil airbase marked the successful completion of the military mission to defeat ISIS in Iraq.
"This milestone reflects the success of the 12-year campaign to defeat ISIS as an organized military threat in Iraq and throughout the region. It also marks the transition from a wartime coalition mission to an Iraqi-led security effort supported by a more normal bilateral security relationship, " the Pentagon quoted Parnell as saying.
He added that the primary responsibility for addressing Iraq's remaining security challenges, including the remnants of ISIS, now rests with the Iraqi government. The United States will continue to provide targeted training and intelligence support and cooperate with Iraq to prevent the resurgence of ISIS.
On May 16, US President Donald Trump announced that, at his direction, US forces had killed Abu Bilal al-Minouqi, the second-most powerful ISIS commander in the world, in Nigeria, whom he called the most active terrorist. According to Trump, al-Minouqi was unaware that the US had sources reporting on all his actions.
In January, the Pentagon announced a shift to a resource-conserving approach in the fight against Islamic terrorist organizations. The department emphasized its commitment to hunting and neutralizing Islamic terrorists.
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Posted by badanov 2026-10-01 00:00||
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