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2026-08-08 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Report: Iranian Leaders Fear Mojtaba Khamenei's Decline ‐ Officials ‘Would Not Be Surprised' by His Martyrdom

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Posted by Skidmark 2026-08-08 05:29|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [233 views ] Top
File under: Govt of Iran

1 Revolutionary Guards: 'Strait of Hormuz will open when US accepts Iran's conditions'

Posted by Grom the Reflective 2026-08-08 06:48|| 2026-08-08 06:48|| Front Page Top

2 End it! Put them all to the sword.

Posted by Besoeker 2026-08-08 07:25|| 2026-08-08 07:25|| Front Page Top

3 Lack of any public appearance by Ayatollah Mojito suggests he is either deceased or so badly damaged that he cannot be shown in public.
(What's Persian for "He done got his face blowed off"?)
Otherwise, at the very least, we would see pix of Mojito smiling bravely from his hospital bed surrounded by his trusted advisors, his survival yet another demonstration that the Great Satan has lost the war.

It is curious the Iranians cannot admit Mojito is no longer in the game. Sure, it would be a loss in the media war, but they admit Big Cheese Ayatollah and a bunch of important dudes are ~~croaked~~ martyred. So why not him, too?

I think the answer lies in the other Iran war, the one we cannot quite see, the one between the Ayatollahs/IRGC and the Civilian Government/Economic Interests over who gets to run the country.

Political science dude Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has created a group dynamics model based on expected utility. Leaving aside the mathy bits, the model is basically a spreadsheet of who the players are, their stated or inferred position on the topic of interest, how import it is to them, how much power they have, and their influence to recruit (or coerce) other players to their side. The model is repeated recalculated until it reaches an equilibrium with no one changing position. The model has a good record predicting things like the fall of the Shah in Iran, and some business negotiations. Using historical data, it was able to "predict" the outcome of the Cold War.

In a dictatorship, personal relationships are important. The guy at the top has a handful of trusted henchmen he needs to stay in power. Likewise, the henchmen have their own hench minions, and so on.

When somebody dies, their henchmen are up for grabs. With Mojito officially gone, his guys would need a new patron to hench for. Who exactly depends on which group or faction can offer them the best deal.

The other day there was a curious news blurb about sanctions being dropped on an IRGC-affiliated airline. Being "news", there was no context or backstory provided. Perhaps a carrot for someone thinking of changing sides, part of an on-going negotiation...

tl;dr: It may be too early to put them all to the sword. We can always play that card later. And if it finally does come to pass, won't the anticipation make it all the sweeter?

Posted by SteveS 2026-08-08 19:13|| 2026-08-08 19:13|| Front Page Top

4 I definitely agree that at least the public is not getting all the information about what is going on in Iran. I only hope Mossad is giving the US the information their agents inside Iran are collecting. The US has always relied on technology for intelligence gathering at the expense of human assets. From what I have read, the US and Israel have not attacked any or not very many regular Iranian Arny bases or equipment.

Posted by Chantry 2026-08-08 19:53|| 2026-08-08 19:53|| Front Page Top

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