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2026-06-29 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

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Posted by badanov 2026-06-29 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [1946 views ] Top
File under: Govt of Iran

1

The US ~~attacked~~ retaliate on Iran again, because it fails to honor its own truce agreement.

It is clear there is no Iranian central command and authority. But just how many feudal lords or groups are there?

Posted by NN2N1 2026-06-29 04:21|| 2026-06-29 04:21|| Front Page Top

2 It is clear there is no Iranian central command and authority. But just how many feudal lords or groups are there?Posted by: NN2N1 2026-06-29 04:21

NN2N1,

You don't want to know. When religious purity is the standard rather than competence, everybody with a couple of stripes and a gun is positive that they're the Chosen One.

At this point, I'm reasonably sure that there are at least three groups right now:

*Whatever's left of the old 'civilian' government.
They are utterly without power or influence outside of the capital, but they know how to yell.

*IRGC(1), which would be the remnants of the prewar chain of command. Yeah, we've sent a lot of these guys to commune with Allan, but their staffs can very quietly keep things moving, though at a very slow pace. I would guess that their power and influence would be immediately around Tehran and Qom, though it's likely that some units elsewhere are still following orders.

*IRGC(2) - the units out in the boonies who were cut off from adult supervision when stuff started getting bombed. They're going to be up in the mountains and along the coast; and they'll do whatever the hell they want. I'd call them as the ones with the most influence and actual military power at this point - also the ones probably calling the shots in Lebanon. They aren't going to knock it off until they're dead.

There are also almost certainly some good sized towns/small cities that are under warlord control, who obey no one but Allan, when and if he dispenses his wisdom. Until then, the local HMFIC is calling the shots.

Mike

Posted by MikeKozlowski 2026-06-29 06:47|| 2026-06-29 06:47|| Front Page Top

3 Thanks Mike, a very likely scenario. I suspect we'll plod along until after the midterms, then some sort of ground action could possibly begin. Just my guess.

Posted by Besoeker 2026-06-29 07:03|| 2026-06-29 07:03|| Front Page Top

4 Solid read Mike

Posted by Clem+Elmish4239 2026-06-29 07:22|| 2026-06-29 07:22|| Front Page Top

5 ^^ #2 That's some medieval shit!

Posted by badanov 2026-06-29 08:49|| 2026-06-29 08:49|| Front Page Top

6 Likely special operations will be dropped in to support the Kurds anyone else in Iran that opposes the IRGC. They can call in airstrikes against the IRGC. (presuming of course they aren't already there).

Posted by Chantry 2026-06-29 10:14|| 2026-06-29 10:14|| Front Page Top

7 That's some medieval shit!

They may have blown back to the Middle Ages but after the mid-terms they need to be blown all the way back to the Stone Ages.

Posted by Abu Uluque 2026-06-29 16:09|| 2026-06-29 16:09|| Front Page Top

8 There is a large and prosperous Iranian diaspora, at least some of whom are eager to finance rebuilding once the Mad Mullahs have been driven out, including the royal court in exile. Iran just needs to get through this difficult bit.

Posted by trailing wife 2026-06-29 16:41|| 2026-06-29 16:41|| Front Page Top

9 Adding on to Mike's most excellent summary of the players in #2...

The Players:
1) Civ-Gov - Whatever's left of the old 'civilian' government.
2) IRGC(1) - remnants of the prewar chain of command.
3) IRGC(2) - the units out in the boonies who were cut off from adult supervision

We also have the
4) the Bonyads
News to me, the AI Summary of le Wiki is not bad:
In Iran, bonyads are opaque, quasi-governmental charitable foundations that dominate the country's economy and report directly to the Supreme Leader. While ostensibly created to redistribute wealth and conduct social welfare, these sprawling conglomerates wield massive political and economic power, controlling an estimated 20% of Iran's GDP.

Nobody talks about these guys since they have no guns and don't make proclamations. They are wealthy and influential and presumably, would like to stay that way.

5) the People - last and pretty much least, since they have no guns, no influence, and no persuasive power. Not a faction so much as scenery, but some possibilities for 5th column activities

We can lump the major factions into two categories:

True Believers - IRGC(1) & IRGC(2)
They want nukes. They will fight. Especially IRGC(2) who lack parental guidance. They are the "Iranians" we are skirmishing with. I suspect the Grownups and IRGC(1) would like them to tone it down a bit.

Grownups - the Civ-Gov and the Bonyads
This group would like to survive the war, hopefully with something to rule over and some wealth and power. These are the "Iranians" we are negotiating with.

Prediction:
As IRGC(2) gets whittled down, I would expect IRGC(1) to move closer to the Grownup position. Eventually, the kinetic distractions will die down and everyone can get back to doing the Power & Money thing.

It is a pity we cannot see inside Iranian politics. Probably some Mexican telenovela class scheming and back-stabbing going on.

tl;dr: Forecast calls for scattered, localized kinetic festivities followed by compliance later on.

Posted by SteveS 2026-06-29 19:13|| 2026-06-29 19:13|| Front Page Top

10 ^ BOOM. You and Mike. I'll just stick to snark with occasional accidents of facts

Posted by Frank G 2026-06-29 19:31|| 2026-06-29 19:31|| Front Page Top

23:12 trailing wife
22:42 Spats Whereck2759
22:37 Spats Whereck2759
21:42 Woodrow
21:33 Bangkok Billy
21:13 Besoeker
20:51 Glenmore
19:31 Frank G
19:17 Bangkok Billy
19:13 SteveS
18:58 Frank G
18:29 Jack Guelph2611
18:22 ed in texas
17:50 Skidmark
17:45 Chris
17:43 Chris
17:38 Frank G
16:41 trailing wife
16:22 SteveS
16:19 ed in texas
16:17 trailing wife
16:15 ed in texas
16:09 Abu Uluque
16:03 Abu Uluque
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