Friday night rantburg.com experienced a massive flooding attack which overwhelmed the web server's log to nearly 95 percent of the total disk space available ~ 950 gigabytes, almost a terabyte.
I accidentally found out as I was trying to get the backup server to accept new data from the main server.
Ordinarily, FreeBSD automatically rotates logs when they reach a certain size, but I guess FreeBSD no longer does that.
To borrow a quote from a sci fi TV series, "It's all hands on here...", so I'll probably write a script timed to reduce the logs after they reach a certain size.
BACKUP SERVER
It took the hosting company nearly six hours to install FreeBSD 15.0 to a metal server, but they all failed after trying with four different machines, so much so, one of their operators said the processor I was using would not accept FreeBSD 15.0, only later to discover it did indeed accept FreeBSD 15.0. I told them that at the time I was using an internal server with a much older processor and it worked fine. But there's a trick to it.
So, I wound up installing the server myself on their remote KVM web application (took about two hours). The tech guys are all Linux/Windows people, so they are not familiar with FreeBSD units.
Getting the base websites running has been a challenge because for the advance version of FreeBSD, and the advanced scripting language (php 8.33), many of the conventions I have ignored in the past reared their ugly heads, reminding me what a lazy individual I have become.
I have zero clue how long it will be before the backup website and the O-club are ready, but now that the server will be receiving hourly updates it is not as urgent a task.
The task now is to debug the many scripts, to get them to conform with the new, stricter standards.
I will no doubt accidentally do my usual thing of revealing some of the more interesting bugs. I apologize in advance for the trouble that will cause.
Posted by: Frank G ||
04/19/2026 2:16 Comments ||
Top||
#3
badanov, in my sysadmin days I wrote a fairly simple perl script for the apache web server's cgi-bin directory in conjunction with iptables that would automatically place the ip addresses that were responsible for spurious requests in the iptable firewall database. Further requests from these ip address were dropped into the bit bucket without any log entries being made. By spurious request, I mean obvious probes for vulnerabilities that were being made by bad actors in countries like China, Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, Malaysia and Romania among others. They would send requests for services that we did not have such as WordPress or php. I see that Rantburg uses php but we didn't use either of those so I knew these people had no business looking for them on our server. I could tell by looking at the error log entries that they were not legitimate errors but deliberate hacking or DOS attempts or probes for any vulnerabilities that the server might have. I forget all the crap they were looking for but it was all stuff they thought they could hack. An option in the apache settings file directed Not Found requests to my script and if certain strings were found in the request, the ip address was automatically added to the iptable database. I don't know what web server software you're using but it was incredible how well that script cleaned up the apache log files.
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
04/19/2026 19:41 Comments ||
Top||
#4
Whatever the question is, a Rantburg expert soon appears…
Text taken from the Telegram channel of darpaandcia
Commentary by Russian military jounralist Boris Rozhin is in italics.
[ColonelCassad] Disruption Through Intelligent Strategies Algorithm vs. Algorithm: DARPA Prepares for a War Where Humans Are Redundant DARPA is launching a new program called DISCORD — which stands for "Disruption Through Intelligent Strategies, Countermeasures, and Resilient Defenses."
The goal is to create an AI tactical planning engine that ingests data from combat sensors in real time, runs it through high-fidelity simulations, and instantly generates action options.
DISCORD is just one part of the larger umbrella project "Ender's Forge." The reference to Orson Scott Card's novel is clear: in the book, a child genius was taught to command fleets in a simulator, and in the finale, it turns out that the "exercises" have long since become a real war. Kinda like CULEX
DARPA essentially states: we are building a system in which the line between simulation and combat is blurred. DARPA is not looking for a single "optimal" solution. The goal is to generate a multitude of different tactics, which the system switches between on the fly. This is the doctrine of controlled chaos: the enemy should not be able to predict the next move, because even the commander himself does not know it—the algorithm will suggest it instantly.
The term "AI-native" in the document is compared to the shift to computer processes in the 1980s and to internet processes in the 2000s. In other words: in ten to fifteen years, an army without AI tactics will be as helpless as an army without communications is today.
DISCORD is an autonomous tactical brain. It does not tire, does not panic, learns from every battle, and suggests moves to the commander that no headquarters could calculate manually. If the program reaches the battlefield, we will see a new type of war: algorithm versus algorithm. The winner won't be the one with the most soldiers, but the one whose AI is faster and more inventive. Humans remain in the picture, but no longer as strategists, but as the one who clicks "agree."
If we assume that the US really did use something similar to plan operations in Iran, then of course, "the experiment was a failure" if we're talking about strategic decision support. At the tactical level, it might work, of course, but then again, the system isn't immune to neural network hallucinations.
In fact, the US already tried to blame its war crime in Minab (the attack on a girls' school) on an "AI error," although, as they previously claimed, the final decision is still made by humans. So, AI will certainly appear on the battlefield, but all of these are still very crude technologies that are still being tested.
[Facebook] Today’s feel-good story comes courtesy of acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, who has only been in the role for less than two weeks. Yesterday, CNN reported, “Justice Department moves to dismiss Proud Boys and Oath Keepers’ seditious conspiracy convictions.” It was the final thread plucked from the great January 6th unwinding.
Yesterday, Trump’s DOJ (via US Attorney Jeanine Pirro’s office in DC) filed unopposed motions in the DC Circuit Court of Appeals to vacate all seditious conspiracy convictions for 12 remaining Proud Boys and Oath Keepers members and dismiss their indictments with prejudice— meaning they can never be recharged.
Enrique Tarrio —the Proud Boys’ national chairman, who wasn’t even in Washington on January 6th but got 22 years, the longest J6 sentence— celebrated on X: “Jeanine Pirro has moved to dismiss all charges. This is my happiest day since the pardon that released us from the jaws of injustice!”
On President Trump’s first day in office, he pardoned 1,000+ January 6th defendants, but not these 12. They only got commutations— their sentences were slashed, but the convictions stayed on the books. But now, vacating their convictions is even better than pardons, which forgive the crime but leave the criminal records in place.
Now, it will be as though the convictions never happened. They get their good names back.
The Twelve traveled a rough road. Each served years in prison following their convictions. Enrique Tarrio was sentenced to 22 years and served 3. Stewart Rhodes was sentenced to 18 and served 3.5. Joe Biggs did 4 years —including 2 full years in pretrial solitary. The others endured similar experiences.
For the several military veterans among the 12, vacatur means full restoration of military benefits, reinstatement of rank, full back pay, restoration of gun rights and security clearances, and no felony record to interfere with job prospects or voting rights.
Now it is clear why Trump didn’t immediately pardon the 12: their appeals were still pending. The President could give them something better than a pardon. At the time, they got immediate commutations —the emergency rescue they needed; he snatched them out of jail— but yesterday’s vacatur was the permanent fix.
These twelve convictions were the crown jewels of Biden’s J6 prosecution. Seditious conspiracy hadn’t been successfully prosecuted in decades (or longer). Biden’s DOJ held three separate trials and won all three. Corporate media cackled that it was “the most important domestic terrorism prosecution since Oklahoma City.” Now there are no political prosecutions left for Democrats to brag about. It’s all come untrue.
CNN’s article yesterday quoted Biden’s former DOJ comms director, who called it, “a slap in the face to the American people and American democracy.” It might not be a slap in democracy’s face, but it’s a slap in the face of something, all right. Meanwhile, BlueSkyers felt depressed and hopeless. (And outrage, of course.)
The Proud Boys just went around beating up violent communist terrorists.
That’s it. They just beat up communist domestic terrorists.
And that made them public enemy number one, because Antifa’s whole organizing strategy fails if CIVILIANS bash them up instead of police. https://t.co/pDvcw6PnCS
Yes, Jeremy Bertino recanted via a sworn affidavit in August 2025. He claims the FBI threatened him with 25+ years in prison, coached his testimony, and pressured him to lie about the Proud Boys' seditious conspiracy plans for Jan. 6.
[HotAir] It seems like every son and daughter of a top Iranian official winds up as a United States resident, living the high life as they remain loyal and helpful to the Iranian regime.
Marco Rubio ...The diminutive 13-year-old Republican U.S. Senator from Florida, Secretary of State in the second Trump administration... is clearing them out, and one hopes that he does something about Iran's premier social media propagandist, who currently runs the social media accounts of Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament and one of Iran's chief negotiators with the United States.
Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf is posting in perfect English, with memes, hashtags & emojis, straight from CALIFORNIA.
IranWire just published an article claiming that Ghalibaf's X account is run by ex-advisor Meysam Zamanabadi, living in Glendora, LA for a decade.
Meysam is the son of one of the Islamic Theocratic Republic’s first intelligence censors, the guy who shut down journalists right after the Revolution.
Even after moving to America, he was still getting 40 million Tomans (~$11,000) every month from Tehran, wired in foreign cash through a shady Ferdowsi Square exchange. His dad’s old colleague funneled another 30 million from every official check straight to Meysam’s family.
This is the same guy who helped pick Ghalibaf’s current top advisor, and who presents himself as "PhD in Media Psychology" from a U.S. university.
The slick propaganda style you have been seeing in his posts is not Ghalibaf. It's Iranian regime's ghostwriter in Caliphornia, an impregnable bastion of the Democratic Party,The regime’s loudest voice is being run from the country it claims to hate.
Zamanabadi's father was one of the founders of Iran's Islamic Coalition Party and an intelligence officer who ran Iran's censorship apparatus. So I guess it shouldn't surprise us that the apple didn't fall far from the tree, with his son becoming a propagandist for Ghalibaf, rising in stature by riding on the coattails of a man known for using corruption to gain power.
When Ghalibaf became Speaker of Parliament in 2020, IranWire published a report titled "Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf’s Footprints in Iranian Sports: Destruction and Corruption," detailing the financial misconduct associated with him and his inner circle during his time as Police Chief and Mayor of Tehran. That report first named Meysam Zamanabadi as a pivotal advisor.
In 2003, while Ghalibaf was the head of the Law Enforcement Forces (FARAJA), he found a legal loophole to fund his ambitions at the Pas Sports Club. He funneled a portion of the national budget, specifically the "one percent allocation for cultural affairs and anti-drug efforts," directly into the club. This resulted in the birth of two lavishly funded media outlets: the IPNA news agency and the Pas-e Javan newspaper.
Who ran this operation? A trio consisting of Meysam Zamanabadi, Mahmoud Abdollahi, and Saied Ajarlou (nephew of General Mostafa Ajarlou).
The Zamanabadi Legacy: Father and Son
Meysam is the son of Gholamhossein Zamanabadi, a man who claims to be one of the original members of the Islamic Coalition Party in the 1980s. While true, it is not the whole story.
Gholamhossein was among the first Ministry of Intelligence officers tasked with censoring journalists and social and sports writers after the Revolution. He is cited as the man responsible for the long-term purging of influential pre-revolutionary media figures like the late Ata’ollah Bahmanesh and Ardeshir Laroudi. During Mohammad Dadkan’s presidency of the Football Federation, Gholamhossein was the PR director in name, but a media watchdog in practice.
Leveraging his father’s influence, Meysam became the editor-in-chief of IPNA and Pas-e Javan in 2003, using the position to embed himself within Ghalibaf’s circle of trust.
That trust has paid off big. Zamanabadi is living in luxury in Glendora, California, and is now the social media guru who is the English-language front man for one of the most powerful men in Iran.
Now it's just possible that this propagandist remains in the United States because the administration wants to cut a deal with Ghalibaf, who is one of the top dogs negotiating with Vance and company. But that doesn't answer the question of why he has been allowed to live in the United States for so long.
Zamanabadi has lived in Glendora, a city in Los Angeles County, California, for nearly a decade. He presents himself as a "PhD graduate in Media Psychology" from an American university. In his biographies, he claims to have studied media psychology, media team training, the effects of digital media, social dynamics in the modern era, and the psychological impacts of contemporary communications on the new generation at U.S. institutions. These are the exact elements observed in the English tweets, memes, hashtags, and emojis used by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf during the war with the United States.
Zamanabadi gets tens of thousands of dollars a month for doing this dirty work for the Iranian regime, which even in California affords you a rather nice life. And no doubt it is useful to have your propagandist embedded within the society you are working to bring down.
🧵 1- The main strategist and content architect behind the account associated with Ghalibaf resides in the United States, and his identity has now been exposed: Meisam Zamanabadi. https://t.co/mU4uKHP9Pmpic.twitter.com/r3dqdi2xLC
For some reason, the United States seems especially good at importing and welcoming its enemies. We welcome hundreds of thousands of Chinese students, host the children of our most dedicated enemies, and embed some of the very worst of them in our education system.
New IMF data for 2026 shows Israel’s GDP has crossed $719.85 billion for the first time, marking a historic milestone. Despite over two years of war, the economy continues to expand at a rapid pace, with projections pointing… pic.twitter.com/DSUdNpEmwF
Shekel hits 30-year high against US dollar
[IsraelTimes] Israel’s shekel gains, hitting a 30-year high against the US dollar as the local currency’s strength continues to be driven by cautious optimism about a resumption of Iran talks and prospects for Lebanon talks. The shekel is trading at NIS 3.01 to the dollar and is close to breaking its psychological barrier of NIS 3/$. It marks the shekel’s strongest value since 1995.
“There are expectations for an improvement in Israel’s geopolitical situation, along with expectations of a sharp increase in defense exports,” says Leader Capital Markets chief economist Jonathan Katz. “Meanwhile, the high-tech sector continues to raise funds abroad.”
#1
Maybe he could address something germaine like Boko Haram or Kony.
The group has been known for its brutality, and since the insurgency started in 2009, Boko Haram has killed tens of thousands of people, in frequent attacks against the police, armed forces and civilians. The conflict has resulted in the deaths of more than 300,000 children and has displaced 2.3 million from their homes. Boko Haram has contributed to regional food crises and famines.
Kony has long been one of Africa's most notorious and most wanted militant warlords. He has been accused by government entities of ordering the abduction of children to become child soldiers and sex slaves. Approximately 66,000 children became soldiers, and 2 million people were displaced internally from 1986 to 2009 by his forces. Kony was indicted in 2005 for war crimes and crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, but he has evaded capture.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited by Andrey Bulkin
[REGNUM] April 18, 1941, is a significant day in aviation history. On this day, 85 years ago, the prototype of the world's first jet aircraft took to the skies.
The Messerschmitt Me 262 fighter's flight lasted only a few minutes. But the customers had high hopes. However, the Me 262 never became the "wonder weapon" that could have turned the tide of the air war in Germany's favor, and there were good reasons for that.
But this “product” opened a new, jet-powered era.
Development of the aircraft, known internally as "Project 1065" by Messerschmitt, began in late 1938. At that time, the German Air Ministry commissioned the creation of an experimental aircraft powered by two new BMW P 3302 turbojet engines.
But the very first rig tests of these engines proved disappointing: the thrust was half the expected value. A temporary solution to begin flight testing of the airframe was the installation of a Jumo 210G piston engine.
The first flight with BMW 003 jet engines mounted under the wing took place on March 25, 1942, and almost ended in disaster.
The engines failed mid-flight, and the aircraft was saved only by the foresight of retaining the piston engine in the nose. This accident definitively put an end to plans to use the BMW powerplant on the Me 262, as its development was delayed, and forced the designers to consider an alternative—the Jumo 004 engine, which Junkers was simultaneously developing.
The first successful flight of the Me 262 with two Jumo 004s took place on July 18, 1942. Flugkapitän Fritz Wendel, who was piloting the aircraft, reported with satisfaction after landing:
"The turbojet engines ran like clockwork, and the handling was exceptionally pleasant. Indeed, I have rarely felt such enthusiasm during my first flight in any aircraft as I did in the Me 262. "
However, this engine was not without serious flaws. The Jumo 004B, which went into production, had a service life of no more than 25 hours, after which it required maintenance. And due to a shortage of necessary materials—nickel and chromium—the turbine and compressor blades often failed under intense operating conditions and failed.
Furthermore, there was a problem with the so-called "zwiebel"—the central part of the nozzle used to regulate thrust. This element could come loose from its mount and block the jet exhaust, leading to numerous accidents.
PINPRICKS
By the autumn of 1943, the aircraft demonstrated impressive results: a speed of over 800 km/h, excellent rate of climb, and the ability to climb vertically.
Leading German pilots, including the commander of the Luftwaffe fighter units, Lieutenant General Adolf Galland, saw the new fighter as a fighter capable of radically changing the situation in the air.
"This machine is a real stroke of luck! It gives us an advantage while our opponents are using piston-engined aircraft. … This aircraft opens a new chapter in combat use," Galland wrote to Reich Aviation Minister Hermann Göring.
However, on November 26, 1943, a demonstration of the aircraft took place in front of Adolf Hitler, which changed the fate of the latest development.
Upon seeing the Me 262, the Führer asked designer Willy Messerschmitt whether the aircraft could carry bombs. After receiving an affirmative answer, Hitler, preoccupied with the impending Allied invasion of Europe, demanded that the initial production runs be exclusively as a fighter-bomber.
This decision has become the subject of heated debate among historians. Some believe it delayed the aircraft's entry into service, while others argue that Hitler's order was effectively ignored by Luftwaffe command.
Objectively, the main limiting factor remained the Jumo 004 engine's unreadiness for mass production: its refinement dragged on, and this became the main obstacle to the program.
The Me 262 was an all-metal cantilever monoplane with two engines mounted under the center section of the swept wing. A notable feature was the triangular fuselage cross-section with rounded corners.
The production Me 262A-1a fighter, unofficially nicknamed "Schwalbe" ("Swallow"), carried four 30mm MK 108 cannons in the nose with a total of 360 rounds of ammunition, allowing it to shoot down any Allied aircraft. Its maximum speed at 6,000 meters reached 870 km/h (543 mph), which was 100–150 km/h (62–90 mph) higher than the best piston-engine fighters of the time. The aircraft had a service ceiling of 11,500 meters (36,500 ft).
The bomber version, designated Me 262A-2a and nicknamed "Sturmvogel" (Storm Petrel), proved far less effective. The aircraft could carry either a single 500-kilogram bomb or two 250-kilogram bombs on an external sling.
Therefore, the Me 262 bombing raids that the Fuhrer dreamed of became nothing more than “pin pricks” for the Allies, although their high speed made intercepting these machines extremely difficult.
A MISSED TRIUMPH
By the time the Allies landed in Normandy on June 6, 1944, the Luftwaffe had no more than 30 Me 262 aircraft in combat units. All of them were fighter-equipped.
However, not a single pilot or aircraft was ready for combat missions. The first production Me 262A-1a fighters began arriving at Test Team "262" at Lechfeld Airfield only in July 1944.
Staffed by factory test pilots, Team 262 began training pilots and refining tactics. As early as June, the first attempts to intercept Allied reconnaissance aircraft were made, and soon the team was credited with shooting down American Lightning reconnaissance aircraft and British Mosquito bombers.
But losses followed immediately: the team commander, Captain Werner Thierfelder, died in a crash landing of the damaged aircraft. And on July 25, 1944, a demonstrative air battle took place: a lone Mosquito successfully evaded attacks by an Me 262 for several minutes, eventually escaping into the clouds.
This episode clearly demonstrated that even a colossal advantage in speed does not guarantee victory if the pilot does not have sufficient experience.
Meanwhile, in August 1944, "Command Schenk" began operating in the skies over France, armed with Me 262A-2a fighter-bombers.
Its debut was short-lived: on August 28, two American Thunderbolt fighters, diving on an Me 262 flying at low altitude near Brussels, scored the first confirmed victory of the US Air Force over a jet aircraft – the German pilot noticed the danger too late and was shot down.
In the autumn of 1944, the first full-fledged combat unit using the Me 262 was formed on the basis of the 262 test team: the Nowotny Team, named after its commander, Luftwaffe ace Major Walter Nowotny.
The unit had a nominal complement of 40 aircraft, of which only 30 were combat-ready, and was based near the city of Osnabrück, on the main routes of American bombers.
However, their combat debut proved disappointing. Over a month of fighting, "Novotny's Team" claimed 22 victories but lost 27 of their 30 combat-ready aircraft.
Most of the losses, however, were not due to combat engagements, but to accidents caused by malfunctions and errors by poorly trained pilots. On November 8, 1944, Nowotny himself was killed—his plane was either shot down by American Mustangs or crashed due to a malfunction.
In total, over 1,400 Me 262s of all variants were produced during the war. However, no more than 150–200 aircraft were in combat units at any one time, of which less than 100 were in combat readiness.
Some of the planes became stranded on railways blocked by Allied air forces (to save fuel, the planes were dismantled after acceptance and sent to their units by rail). Another 150 were shot down, lost in accidents, or on the ground.
Me 262 fighters, according to various estimates, shot down between 150 and 300 aircraft, a very modest result considering the losses and the advantage these aircraft had over their piston-engine counterparts. The combat results of the bomber versions were so insignificant that they were practically not mentioned in military reports.
AT THE DAWN OF THE JET AGE
Despite its modest combat results, the Me 262's impact on global aircraft manufacturing is difficult to overstate. It was the first production turbojet-powered combat aircraft to take to the skies and fire, and its design served as a starting point for development in many countries.
The Japanese equivalent, the Nakajima J8N1 "Kikka" fighter, first flew on August 7, 1945, the day after the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and just a few days before Japan's surrender. This aircraft never entered production.
In the Soviet Union, the Sukhoi Design Bureau created the Su-9 fighter (1946), which also did not go into production—by the time its testing was completed, production capacity was already occupied by more advanced developments by Soviet designers, the MiG-9 and Yak-15.
The most direct "heir" was Czechoslovakia. During the war, Czechoslovakian factories produced the full range of components for this aircraft for the Luftwaffe, including engines.
After the war, aircraft production continued for the Czechoslovak Air Force. Under the designations Avia S-92 (single-seat fighter) and Avia CS-92 (two-seat trainer), these aircraft remained in service until the mid-1950s, when they were replaced by Soviet MiG-9s and Yak-23s.
The fate of the Messerschmitt Me 262 became a clear illustration of the fact that even the most advanced weapons are unable to change the course of a war if their production and use are not supported by a resource base, proven tactics, and well-trained personnel.
[NewsMax] Military expert Robert Pape argues that the glimmer of a possible peace deal this weekend was illusory — and that a ceasefire is unlikely to hold because the conflict is driven by a fundamentally "zero-sum" dynamic rather than negotiable differences.
Pape, a professor at the University of Chicago known for his work on coercive diplomacy, air power, and suicide terrorism, has long studied how conflicts escalate when core strategic interests are perceived as indivisible. His analysis and predictions since the war began on February 28 have been highly accurate.
In his recent analysis published on Substack, Pape contends that what appears to be fragile diplomacy is in fact something deeper and more intractable, writing that "this is not a story about fragile diplomacy or poor sequencing" but rather one rooted in structural conflict.
According to Pape, the brief ceasefire between Israel, Hezbollah, and broader regional actors initially suggested a potential shift toward stabilization, as signals from Iran and early tanker traffic hinted at de-escalation.
However, that moment quickly unraveled when the United States maintained its naval pressure on Iran, prompting Tehran to reassert control over the Strait of Hormuz and escalate militarily.
Pape describes this rapid reversal as evidence that "in a matter of a day, the system snapped back to escalation," underscoring how deeply embedded the incentives for conflict have become.
At the heart of his argument is the claim that the conflict revolves around issues that cannot be compromised without one side accepting a strategic defeat.
He identifies Iran’s nuclear capability as one such issue, arguing that "Iran either retains a nuclear capability on the threshold of weapons, or it does not," leaving no stable middle ground.
He suggests if the current Iranian leadership were to agree to such a deal, they would likely face internal revolt. I'm not so sure about that. Appears to be little evidence of an "internal revolt" of any kind.
For the United States, allowing Iran to maintain the potential for nuclear capability would shift the regional balance of power, while for Iran, relinquishing it would expose the regime to vulnerability.
Because of this, Pape argues, "any ceasefire that leaves this issue unresolved is therefore structurally unstable," serving only as a temporary pause rather than a solution.
He extends the same logic to control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint that cannot simultaneously be governed by Iran and remain an open international passage.
In his words, "either Hormuz operates as an open international passage, or it is governed by Iran," reinforcing the idea that both sides are locked in a direct contest over power.
This structural incompatibility, Pape argues, creates a situation where both sides see escalation as preferable to concession.
"Zero-sum conflicts do not automatically escalate," he writes, "they escalate when both sides reveal that losing is worse than fighting," a threshold he believes has already been crossed.
Recent actions by both the United States and Iran, including expanded military operations and enforcement measures, are interpreted by Pape as clear signals of that preference.
"These actions are not reluctant or reactive," he notes, but rather deliberate indications that each side is willing to bear the costs of continued escalation.
As a result, ceasefires lose their traditional role as pathways to peace and instead become temporary interruptions in an ongoing cycle of confrontation.
Pape describes the recent pattern as "incremental escalation, brief pauses, renewed escalation," which he sees as the natural rhythm of a zero-sum conflict.
He concludes that external pressures for stability, including diplomatic efforts and market concerns, are unlikely to overcome the underlying structural forces driving the conflict.
Ultimately, Pape warns that "this war is not stabilizing," but rather tightening over time, pointing toward continued escalation rather than lasting resolution.
President Donald Trump has issued several positive announcements about a potential deal. Still, the U.S. is preparing for the worst as the Pentagon continues to move thousands of U.S. troops to the region.
The Navy carrier USS George H.W. Bush is expected to arrive near the Gulf of Oman in the coming days. The carrier group includes 6,000 additional combat troops.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
...The diminutive 13-year-old Republican U.S. Senator from Florida, Secretary of State in the second Trump administration...
