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2026-11-14 Economy

Lord Garth summarizes for us. Graphs and discussion at the link.

[DeptOfLabor] link goes to weekly unemployment insurance filings

- New Unemployment filings are at historically low rates
- The BLS measured CPI in October was up 0.4% fro September
- Yield Curve shows relatively steep increases in yield with time to maturity

this and other info make the odds high (Kalshi and Polymarket) for a Fed Funds interest rate hike at the Dec 8-9 meeting of the Federal Reserve

The recent decrease in gasoline prices hasn't changed the betting much on this. However, if these prices go down another 10 cents/gallon, I think the Fed might hold off. # id) ?>

Posted by Lord Garth 2026-11-14 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| ||Comments [112 views ] Top

1 I predict the new US Congress will vote to increase its pay and benefits and will continue massive spending.

Posted by Glomble Jomosh5216 2026-11-14 00:07|| 2026-11-14 00:07|| Front Page || Comments Top

2 /\ There appears to be some historical precedent for your prediction. Well done Glomble.

Posted by Besoeker 2026-11-14 03:22|| 2026-11-14 03:22|| Front Page || Comments Top

3 Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR) is only 61%.

If only 61% are participating, does the unemployment rate just pretend the other 39% don't exist? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Posted by mossomo 2026-11-14 10:51|| 2026-11-14 10:51|| Front Page || Comments Top

4 How many of those not working are retired, mossomo?

Posted by trailing wife 2026-11-14 13:01|| 2026-11-14 13:01|| Front Page || Comments Top

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