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2026-07-12 Science & Technology

America and Iran are fighting a stochastic war

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Posted by Skidmark 2026-07-12 06:21|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [1871 views ] Top
File under: Govt of Iran

1 Had to look it up:

Stochastic - Having a random probability distribution or pattern that may be analysed statistically but may not be predicted precisely.

Posted by Besoeker 2026-07-12 08:45|| 2026-07-12 08:45|| Front Page Top

2 its not as 'chancy' as it was in 1960

both sides have near precision munitions

USA's are more precision

Posted by Lord Garth 2026-07-12 09:49|| 2026-07-12 09:49|| Front Page Top

3 Iran’s are more precise than Yemen’s, certainly, but are they precise, Lord Garth?

Posted by trailing wife 2026-07-12 10:14|| 2026-07-12 10:14|| Front Page Top

4 A little long but a nice exploration of the miscalculations both Iran and the US have been making in their recent altercation:

https://blog.roninsgrips.com/intelligence-assessment-the-resilience-of-the-islamic-republic-of-iran-and-u-s-policy-miscalculations/

Posted by Dopey Photch2701 2026-07-12 10:21|| 2026-07-12 10:21|| Front Page Top

5 https://blog.roninsgrips.com/intelligence-assessment-the-resilience-of-the-islamic-republic-of-iran-and-u-s-policy-miscalculations/

Posted by Skidmark 2026-07-12 13:40|| 2026-07-12 13:40|| Front Page Top

6 /\ Very informative, thanks Skid.

Posted by Besoeker 2026-07-12 13:47|| 2026-07-12 13:47|| Front Page Top

7 You know WWII's war in the Pacific was a similar model. US bombs had taken out most of Japan's military strongholds and infrastructure. The Japs armed 10 year old girls with sharpened stick to stave off the Marines in anticipation of a mainland invasion.

And then we dropped the sun on their asses.

Posted by Regular joe 2026-07-12 14:45|| 2026-07-12 14:45|| Front Page Top

8 Thomas Schelling had a name for what is happening in the Gulf. In The Strategy of Conflict, published in 1960, the economist described deterrence as "the threat that leaves something to chance". A state does not need to promise war to move an adversary. It needs only to create a risk of war that neither side fully controls. The threat works because the outcome is uncertain, and because both parties know it.

Schelling is a smart guy and had a lot to say about deterrence, signalling, threats, and compliance. He is one of the godfathers of modern Game Theory. Definitely worth reading.

Deterrence is "Don't nobody do any stupid shit and we may all live thru this". Deterrence got us through the Cold War with the Soviet Union under the brand name Mutual Assured Destruction. It worked.

With Iran, our goal is compliance, not deterrence. Compliance is "Stop doing that or we will kill you and blow up your stuff". We have demonstrated that is a believable threat.

A generic problem with threats is that they are often ineffective with young children and crazy people. The other, more specific problem, depends on what the meaning of "Iran" is.

As Mike Kowalski pointed out the other day, there is currently a struggle in Iran between the Ayatollahs/IRGC faction(aka the Crazies) on one side, and the Civil Government/Economic powers (the Grownups) on the other. The Crazies are happy to engage in an apocalyptic showdown with the infidels. The Grownups would like to survive and retain their fortunes.

The on and off nature of this war comes from trying to prune back the IRGC while giving the Grownups time to resolve the question of who is running Iran. It may seem chaotic, but the plays are straight out of Schelling's advice on signaling a willingness to make a deal:
* Be nice
* Be provocable
* Be forgiving
* Be straightforward

Every time the IRGC acts out, we hit them hard but then we back off. Unsatisfying, no doubt, but if it gets us to our goal, it is cheaper in the long run.

'Tis a pity we cannot see inside Iranian politics, but from out here, it currently looks like the Crazies will stay in charge. The result will be big war, but Iran will not have nukes and the Strait will be open.

Posted by SteveS 2026-07-12 16:09|| 2026-07-12 16:09|| Front Page Top

9 The one flaw Trump has is that he trust the people in his circle and give them the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. He trusted his advisors during COVID, he is trusting his advisors with regard to Iran. Everyone knows Iran will not surrender or agree to anything if they think one person might survive to fight on. This is historically proven for 100's of years. Trump trusted the CIA and NSA on this and he should not have. He is still being measured in his response in hopes, false hopes, that Iran will man up and come to the table. They will never honestly come to the table for negotiations. We are in a war with Iran, proxies included, The only way to get them out of our hair is to reduce them to the point where their survival is all that matter, not surrender, they will never surrender in a western sense. Attrit them until they can not wage war, and as they grow back, attrit them again, take note of the crusades, follow that model

Posted by 49 Pan 2026-07-12 18:22|| 2026-07-12 18:22|| Front Page Top

10 ^ Attrit their ability to pay mercenary proxies. You'll still get true believers who'll fight to the death. Accommodate them.

Posted by Frank G 2026-07-12 18:29|| 2026-07-12 18:29|| Front Page Top

22:36 Skidmark
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