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2026-05-07 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Iran agreed to give up nuclear weapons, Trump said

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Posted by badanov 2026-05-07 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [1841 views ] Top
File under: Govt of Iran

1 If you can't believe the Iranians and Regnum news , who can you believe?

Posted by chris 2026-05-07 00:53|| 2026-05-07 00:53|| Front Page Top

2 Nothing less than regime change will work.
Death to Iran!

Posted by Unerert Jiper3466 2026-05-07 00:58|| 2026-05-07 00:58|| Front Page Top

3 Taqiyya

Posted by Seeking Cure For Ignorance 2026-05-07 03:41|| 2026-05-07 03:41|| Front Page Top

4 He does talk too much.

Posted by European Conservative 2026-05-07 07:13|| 2026-05-07 07:13|| Front Page Top

5 To whom do you refer, EC?

Posted by Whiskey Mike 2026-05-07 07:17|| 2026-05-07 07:17|| Front Page Top

6 Trump. He should not announce things that Iran will deny the next day because he announced them prematurely. If there are serious negotiations let them run their course silently until a true agreement is reached.

Posted by European Conservative 2026-05-07 07:23|| 2026-05-07 07:23|| Front Page Top

7 OR...he's creating a rift among the lying politicians and IRGC

Posted by Frank G 2026-05-07 07:25|| 2026-05-07 07:25|| Front Page Top

8 I guess he doesn't have to create that.
The problem I see is that Trump wants to humiliate the Iranian negotiators. This can't work because this would be deadly in a rogue state where nobody can't survive when being perceived as "weak".

Negotiations are give and take or they aren't negotiations.

Posted by European Conservative 2026-05-07 07:47|| 2026-05-07 07:47|| Front Page Top

9 EC, you don't seem to grasp that Trump negotiates differently.
(Art of the Deal: never take a reasonable position.)

Posted by ed in texas 2026-05-07 08:12|| 2026-05-07 08:12|| Front Page Top

10 Diplomacy between nation follows different rules.

Posted by European Conservative 2026-05-07 08:43|| 2026-05-07 08:43|| Front Page Top

11 ^Rules only work if everyone abides.

Posted by Grom the Affective 2026-05-07 09:01|| 2026-05-07 09:01|| Front Page Top

12 It seems that neither side intends to do that.

Posted by European Conservative 2026-05-07 09:04|| 2026-05-07 09:04|| Front Page Top

13 The only peaceful Muslim is a dead one.

Posted by Grom the Affective 2026-05-07 09:07|| 2026-05-07 09:07|| Front Page Top

14 I can understand how some might like their daily news less Trumpy, but from where I sit, Trump is playing this straight out of Schelling's The Strategy of Conflict. *spoiler alert* He is winning. (I know, a bitter pill)

Modern game theory has moved beyond simply figuring out the best move to bigger questions like threats, signaling, negotiations, bargains, and cooperation. What distinguishes a real threat from "cheap talk"? What makes a deal work? How do you signal that you are williing to cooperate?

Mainstream news will proclaim everything as chaos, TACOs, humiliation, and disaster, but Trump's moves are by the book. They may appear crazy, but they all fit the framework for signaling a willingness to make a deal:
Be nice.
Be provocable
Be forgiving
Be straightforward

And what is with this "humiliation" thing? Current events are constantly reported in terms of someone being humiliated. Daily Mail headlines are a great example. Putin is humiliated by this, Trump is humiliated by that, oh noes, something humiliated Stramer. The news is being pitched like a Mean Girls soap opera. I find it tiresome and lacking in expanatory power. Where is the humiliation in "We've had very good talks"?

tl;dr: Trump's superpower is making deals. Let the man cook.

Posted by SteveS 2026-05-07 09:41|| 2026-05-07 09:41|| Front Page Top

15 Neither sides intends to play 'by the rules', but our side should anyways?

Doesn't seem so long ago certain other countries declared a peace alongside, if not even beforehand, Trump.

Posted by swksvolFF 2026-05-07 09:42|| 2026-05-07 09:42|| Front Page Top

16 When I peak a iranian news feeds, they categorically reject the idea of uranium transfers to the US.

"Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman has clearly stated that enriched uranium is “as sacred as Iranian soil” and will not be transferred anywhere under any circumstances, directly rejecting claims of any agreement with the United States."

Posted by mossomo 2026-05-07 12:28|| 2026-05-07 12:28|| Front Page Top

17 If we reach an agreement with non-IRGC government officials, will we see a civil war in Iran between the IRGC and the non IRGC?

Posted by Chantry 2026-05-07 13:59|| 2026-05-07 13:59|| Front Page Top

18 ^ Is that a question, a discussion point or just filler?

[AI]
Iran Civil War After Deal?

**An agreement with non-IRGC government officials does not guarantee the avoidance of civil war, as the IRGC holds dominant military, economic, and political power and may resist civilian authority.** The IRGC is **independent of Iran’s regular army (Artesh)** and **accountable only to the Supreme Leader**, making it a state-within-a-state that controls over 50% of Iran’s economy through front companies and religious foundations. Recent tensions highlight this divide, with officials like Pezeshkian demanding that war decisions be made by the civilian government rather than the IRGC—a demand rejected by IRGC leadership.

**The IRGC is unlikely to relinquish power peacefully**, as it has repeatedly intervened in politics to block reform, maintains armed loyalist forces like the Basij, and has deep ideological and institutional entrenchment. Even if a diplomatic agreement is reached with civilian figures, the IRGC could continue waging asymmetric warfare or suppress dissent through force, as seen during recent protests where thousands were killed or imprisoned. Key factors that could trigger broader conflict include:
- **Refusal of IRGC commanders to cede control** over military and economic assets.
- **Potential defections or infighting** between the IRGC and Artesh or other factions.
- **Empowerment of ethnic insurgent groups** (e.g., Kurds, Baluchis) amid central state collapse.
- **Foreign intervention or sanctions** further destabilizing the regime’s cohesion.

Thus, **without dismantling the IRGC’s autonomy**, any agreement with civilian officials may only produce a façade of change while **increasing the risk of internal conflict**.

Posted by Skidmark 2026-05-07 15:24|| 2026-05-07 15:24|| Front Page Top

19 "a question, a discussion point?" A bit of both, I don't keep as current with Iranian internal politics as others here do.

Posted by Chantry 2026-05-07 16:16|| 2026-05-07 16:16|| Front Page Top

20 I think the lack of financials in paying their salaries will help both self-destruct

Posted by Frank G 2026-05-07 19:15|| 2026-05-07 19:15|| Front Page Top

21 If we reach an agreement with non-IRGC government officials, will we see a civil war in Iran between the IRGC and the non IRGC?

A good question. Given the players, I would expect to see the civil war play out a bit first before we reach an end agreement.

Previously, the Ayatollah ran the country thru the IRGC. The top layer of mullahs has been scraped off, which would leave the IRGC as the big dog among the factions. They can influence the other factions with credible threats of death and violence. Severely reducing the number of IRGC personnel is one way to reduce their power. Running guns to the natives might help, but that is probably better left to Mossad.

I'm expecting some US vs IRGC kinetic activity soon. Probably not Bridges and Power Plants Day though, since it sounds like the civilian government will deal. Anyone up for some convoy escort duty in contested waters? Guaranteed to get spicy quick! Which is why I think the Saudis and Kuwait closed their airspace until they could get some security commitments from the US.

Posted by SteveS 2026-05-07 19:47|| 2026-05-07 19:47|| Front Page Top

23:38 Skidmark
23:32 Skidmark
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22:59 SteveS
22:58 The Walking Unvaxed
22:44 trailing wife
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21:54 Woodrow
21:29 Difar Dave
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20:42 Mullah Richard OTR
20:42 Mullah Richard OTR
19:47 SteveS
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18:54 Difar Dave
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