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2026-04-29 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Reuters: Political and military power in Iran has effectively passed into the hands of the IRGC

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Posted by badanov 2026-04-29 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [1833 views ] Top
File under: Govt of Iran

1 Elimination of the old guard has brought to power Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, Speaker of the Iranian Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and CINC of the IRGC Ahmad Vahidi. All of these individuals fought (not served as REMFs) in the Iran-Iraq war of 1980-1988. They are all combat veterans with first hand knowledge of "consequences" of peer-to-peer conflict. With that experience, they are electing to continue to resist the Israeli and US forces attacking and blockading Iran.

US military leaders have not been engaged in peer-to-peer conflict for 60+ years (and Israel for 40 years). The US political side of the house has not even had personal significant experience in the GWOT or DS/DS operating "outside the wire." The mindset of the two sets of leaders is worlds apart when recognizing the "on the ground" implications of political / military decisions.

These two sets of attitudes are shaping the course of the war.

Posted by Clem+Elmish4239 2026-04-29 05:51|| 2026-04-29 05:51|| Front Page Top

2 [Reuters]Iran's Guards seize wartime power, weakening Supreme Leader's role

[Tehran Times]
The Strait of Hormuz and Iran at the Forefront of West Asian Geopolitics

Posted by Skidmark 2026-04-29 07:19|| 2026-04-29 07:19|| Front Page Top

3 As opposed to what??

Seems to me that the IRGC has been in control for a long time already.

Posted by alanc 2026-04-29 08:22|| 2026-04-29 08:22|| Front Page Top

4 It was always going to come down to this.
The bureaucrats and their enforcers have fundamentally different goals.

Posted by ed in texas 2026-04-29 12:36|| 2026-04-29 12:36|| Front Page Top

5 This is a new round of Byzantine politics where any player can snitch the location of an antagonist to a third party (US or Israel) for elimination.

Posted by Procopius2k 2026-04-29 17:13|| 2026-04-29 17:13|| Front Page Top

6 With that experience, they are electing to continue to resist the Israeli and US forces attacking and blockading Iran.

Experience teaches that logistics wins wars, not religious fervor. Resistance is continuing because the IRGC are running the show at the moment.

I expect Iranian political dynamics to change soon, partly thru the 1-800-MOSSAD target sharing program and partly thru some renewed bombing because the IRGC can't stop themselves. Time is not on Iran's side, despite the woofing about midterm elections.

The bureaucrats and their enforcers have fundamentally different goals.

This is a key point. Players don't necessarily have the same payoff matrix. Differing payoffs means differing deals are possible.

Posted by SteveS 2026-04-29 17:40|| 2026-04-29 17:40|| Front Page Top

7 any player can snitch the location of an antagonist to a third party (US or Israel) for elimination.

Ali the Weasel™

Posted by Frank G 2026-04-29 18:06|| 2026-04-29 18:06|| Front Page Top

8 The Borg are in charge.

Posted by Bobby 2026-04-29 20:06|| 2026-04-29 20:06|| Front Page Top

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