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2022-04-11 Economy

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Posted by Mullah Richard 2022-04-11 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [1785 views ] Top

1 Pozsar's research note came out a week ago. Everyone with a brain for economics or finance predicted this a MONTH ago -- everyone outside Washington, that is.

Enjoy!

Mocked as 'rubble' by Biden, Russia's rouble comes roaring back

Ruble Surges To 5-Month Highs After Russia Unexpectedly Slashes Rates By 300bps

"While the rest of the world is engaged in tightening monetary policy to tame the self-inflicted inflation beast, Russia’s central bank unexpectedly cut its key interest rate the most in nearly two decades last night."

Bloomberg, April 8:
"Russia’s central bank unexpectedly slashed its key interest rate in a sign of confidence that the worst of the financial turmoil triggered by the invasion of Ukraine is past."

NYTimes:
"EU Is Reaching Its Pain Threshold: Fatigue Sets In As EU Considers New Sanctions"
😂
"The U.K. is taking a hawkish lead on Russia, but will Europe follow?" "NEIN!"
🙃
"The U.S. is attacking Russia's economy. Critics question its effectiveness"
🤣

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 03:07|| 2022-04-11 03:07|| Front Page Top

2 Three members of Congress get it. But 432 others are clueless. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene votes against Biden's foolish sanctions and tweets:

"Sanctions will do nothing to stop the war in Ukraine, but WILL continue to drive up inflation, cause food famines"

"Sanctions aren’t working, they only cause people to suffer.”

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 03:11|| 2022-04-11 03:11|| Front Page Top

3 Financial headlines:
#21 "Russia cuts interest rate as ruble settles despite sanctions. Russia’s central bank says more cuts to interest rates are on the way"
😃

"US investors brace for more pain as Fed signals continued interest rate hikes"
😢

Zero Hedge:

"Most Sanctions Fail". DUH

"Where Will The Food Riots Start?"
Egypt? Sudan? Or Paris?

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 03:16|| 2022-04-11 03:16|| Front Page Top

4 The sanctions have been mocked from the outset as a bad joke. The notion that the US could dictate to the world's nations a policy of starving their own people and crippling their indistries - all to punish a country that most of the Hlobal South considers a friend - was always ludicrous.

But the carveouts for Germany are beyond laughable. They reek of western cynicism. Now the EU us carving even more out and pushing back deadlines for inaugurating the sanctions in Germany:

"The European Union's proposed ban on Russian coal imports is expected to take full effect a month later than initially planned due to pressure from Germany, two EU sources were quoted by Reuters as saying.

According to the initial plan, the EU set a 90-day transition before a complete ban on Russian coal, but the period has been extended to four months, Reuters said. That followed pressure mostly from Germany, although the report didn't elaborate.

Germany is heavily reliant on Russia's energy products such as coal, oil and gas. Germany bought 21.5% of its coal from Russia in 2020. That number rose to 35.2% for oil imports and to 58.9% for natural gas, according to data from the European statistics office.

Posted by Slineling Chusong5031 2022-04-11 03:37|| 2022-04-11 03:37|| Front Page Top

5 #1 Everyone with a brain for economics or finance predicted this a MONTH ago -- everyone outside Washington, that is.

It's hard to fathom the stupidity of the Biden people. Everyone knows that sanctions have failed again and again. Thus is because sanctions cannot change a proud nation's foreign policies. They only create bitterness that lasts for decades.

And the inevitable carveouts (like those allowing greener-than-thou Germany to continue breaking sanctions and buying tons of coal and oil from Russia) only increase popular contempt, while making corrupt politicians rich.

Posted by Slineling Chusong5031 2022-04-11 03:55|| 2022-04-11 03:55|| Front Page Top

6 2 Corinthians 6:14
... For what partnership has righteousness with lawlessness? Or what fellowship has light with darkness?

Posted by Clusosh Floluter6074 2022-04-11 04:09|| 2022-04-11 04:09|| Front Page Top

7 Everyone with a brain for economics or finance

"When you find one, ask him if he's seen that honest man I'm looking for."

- Diogenes

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-04-11 07:22|| 2022-04-11 07:22|| Front Page Top

8 Everyone with a brain for economics or finance

I guess that disqualifies anyone in the Federal Reserve system

Posted by Procopius2k 2022-04-11 07:56|| 2022-04-11 07:56|| Front Page Top

9 It's hard to fathom the stupidity of the Biden people.

Yes.

Posted by Skidmark 2022-04-11 08:21|| 2022-04-11 08:21|| Front Page Top

10 ^ Sometimes, getting inside your opponent's head is a bad idea.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-04-11 08:24|| 2022-04-11 08:24|| Front Page Top

11 "Intelligence has its limits, but stupidity doesn't have."

Posted by Procopius2k 2022-04-11 09:08|| 2022-04-11 09:08|| Front Page Top

12 "Western sanctions and condemnations intended to pile pressure on Vladimir Putin instead seem to be rallying Russians behind him."
😄

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 09:31|| 2022-04-11 09:31|| Front Page Top

13 "The Loopholes and Backdoors That Keep Russian Oil Flowing Into Europe"
😜

When is a cargo of Russian diesel not a cargo of Russian diesel? The answer is when Shell Plc, the largest European oil company, turns it into what traders refer to as a Latvian blend.

The point is to market a barrel in which only 49.99% comes from Russia; in Shell’s eyes, as long as the other 50.01 percent is sourced elsewhere, the oil cargo isn’t technically of Russian origin.
🙃

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 09:36|| 2022-04-11 09:36|| Front Page Top

14 The sanctions are counterproductive. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is absolutely correct to vote against them (btw it was 9 not 3 congressmen, the others include Matt Gaetz). MTG said, the sanctions just hurt Americans and millions of people outside Russia while forcing Russia to build stronger relationships with China and other enemies of the US:

"These bills are not going to stop Putin and his invasion into Ukraine, they aren't going to change his mind... They look tough and they sound tough, but it's actually going to hurt many, many people."

Posted by Sheack Unereter9719 2022-04-11 09:48|| 2022-04-11 09:48|| Front Page Top

15 #12 - well that leaves out the "Good ~~Germans~~ Russians" argument against collective punishment

Posted by Frank G 2022-04-11 09:48|| 2022-04-11 09:48|| Front Page Top

16 Latvian blend
in Shell’s eyes, as long as the other 50.01 percent is sourced elsewhere, the oil cargo isn’t technically of Russian origin.

What a fucking joke. Clowns designed these sanctions

Posted by Sheack Unereter9719 2022-04-11 09:57|| 2022-04-11 09:57|| Front Page Top

17 "Europe Moves to Arm Ukraine as Sanctions Fail to Sway Putin"

"EU faces split over push by members to sanction Russian oil"
🤡

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 10:00|| 2022-04-11 10:00|| Front Page Top

18 "Western sanctions policy is the worst of all worlds. We are suffering an energy shock that is further inflating Russia’s war-fighting revenues."

"The current situation is intolerable. We are allowing Putin to exploit Russia’s leverage as a full-spectrum commodity superpower."
💪

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 10:12|| 2022-04-11 10:12|| Front Page Top

19 a fucking joke. Clowns designed these sanctions

The Biden Administration is a clown circus. Imagine trying to isolate a "full-spectrum commodity superpower" with sanctions from which your own corporations are exempt.

Posted by Grinesing Trotsky1090 2022-04-11 10:27|| 2022-04-11 10:27|| Front Page Top

20 So, Bill, as an investment proposition you recommend that everyone here sell all stocks and bonds they may own and buy gold or commodities? Is that what Credit Suisse -- Mr. Pozsar's employer -- recommends? To get down to cases, I can buy an ounce of gold for a little more than I can buy 100 shares of JNJ, an AAA rated company that pays a pretty solid dividend. I should buy the ounce of gold, right?

Also, you refer to a "slash" in Russian interest rates. Are you referring to the cut from 20% to 17%? You realize that an average consumer credit card charges a lower rate than that? Or in other words, the credit market assesses Frank G to be a better risk than Russian government debt. I wonder why that is.

Posted by Matt 2022-04-11 10:36|| 2022-04-11 10:36|| Front Page Top

21 But I will say that if we're moving to a system in which the value of a country's currency is determined solely by the commodities the country has, the best bet is Zimbabwe. Vast mineral wealth, and I don't see what could go wrong.

Posted by Matt 2022-04-11 10:47|| 2022-04-11 10:47|| Front Page Top

22 If Biden wants to sanction Russia he can begin by not sanctioning the US oilfield. I'm tired of the lying sanctimonious pieces of shit who pretend that the billion dollars a day isn't happening and wasn't a completely optional decision on Biden's part.

Posted by Thing From Snowy Mountain 2022-04-11 10:50|| 2022-04-11 10:50|| Front Page Top

23 Buy all the US defence manufacturers that have US generals on their board

But short the hell out of every western stock index

Can you say, "RECESSION"? I knew you could!
🤑

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 11:01|| 2022-04-11 11:01|| Front Page Top

24 Bill, is that what you're doing with your portfolio?

Posted by Matt 2022-04-11 11:04|| 2022-04-11 11:04|| Front Page Top

25 Bill let me make it easy for you. You can short the S&P 500 by buying SH, here. I you had bought it at the beginning of the year you'd be up 5%+. If you had bought it a year ago you'd be down 10%. But go ahead, buy a couple of thousand SH. It's a sure thing, right? Or do you only invest with OPM?

Posted by Matt 2022-04-11 11:17|| 2022-04-11 11:17|| Front Page Top

26 I'm putting every spare krugerrand into fentanyl futures. I'm gonna make a killing!

Posted by SteveS 2022-04-11 11:18|| 2022-04-11 11:18|| Front Page Top

27 I trade oil ..and any other commodity where I can score quick profits. Sunflower and rapeseed oils have made me lots of money lately

The US Clown Sanctions are a trader's dream come true. Everyone's making big money off of this war and the sanctions. You could fly a 737 through all the loopholes and exemptions

THANK YOU, JOE BIDEN!
❤️

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 11:19|| 2022-04-11 11:19|| Front Page Top

28 Matt, do you live in the US? If not, you're fine, you can score big $$$. Especially trading from Asia.

If you're American you can still make good money off the war if you're a general or if you trade for Goldman Sachs. Otherwise you're screwed (sorry) 😢

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 11:24|| 2022-04-11 11:24|| Front Page Top

29 So you're a commodities trader? I assume you mean you trade futures contracts. What's the volume on rapeseed futures contracts, and how do you hedge your risk?

Posted by Matt 2022-04-11 11:31|| 2022-04-11 11:31|| Front Page Top

30 Matt, where are you putting your money? Hope it's not NASDAQ shit. Do you work for Lockheed?

Posted by Glomoque Flomomp8750 2022-04-11 11:36|| 2022-04-11 11:36|| Front Page Top

31 Anyplace except Russia. If Russians would steal from their own troops, they'd certainly steal from me.

Posted by Matt 2022-04-11 11:50|| 2022-04-11 11:50|| Front Page Top

32 What would stop Bidet from confiscating any "war profits" made from investing in anything Russian right now?

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-04-11 11:54|| 2022-04-11 11:54|| Front Page Top

33 ^ private transactions
😎

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 12:08|| 2022-04-11 12:08|| Front Page Top

34 It's not an investment, it's a trade
The only good investments for the next several years are land H2O and US defence manufacturers

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 12:12|| 2022-04-11 12:12|| Front Page Top

35 land H2O and US ~~defence~~ defense manufacturers

Ha, that's a nice portfolio. Lockheed + Russian land. Soon Russia will own lots of really valuable black earth and natural gas reserves in the Donbas. Possession, 9/10ths etc

Posted by Jeremiah Stalin9464 2022-04-11 12:19|| 2022-04-11 12:19|| Front Page Top

36 Lockheed + Russian land.
Now you're talking!

Biden + Putin are working hand in hand. Russia invades Ukraine, so Biden sanctions Russia. Russia destroys Ukraine, so Biden destroys the US economy. Russia takes more territory, so Biden prolongs the war.

At every stage, Russia gets more territory and rakes in more revenue while Lockheed books more orders and racks up more profit. Russian land + Lockheed: there you have it, Matt!
🤑

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 12:27|| 2022-04-11 12:27|| Front Page Top

37 So Russia's motive for the "special military operation" was to kill the Ukrainians and steal their land? I'd rather invest in tobaco companies.

Posted by Matt 2022-04-11 12:47|| 2022-04-11 12:47|| Front Page Top

38 Lock[heed] and load, heh

Posted by Jumbo Bluetooth4745 2022-04-11 12:50|| 2022-04-11 12:50|| Front Page Top

39 "I'd rather invest in tobaco companies."

Do you mean tobacco? Or is that American simplified spelling? I'm not opposed. Those aboriginal words' spellings are just arbitrary, anyway

The US/Third World tobacco trade was a good one. Sell America (tort lawsuits), buy Third World (sell cigs to a billion children! Hooked for life!). Philip Morris made a killing overseas, much more than they lost in the US.

Posted by Bill Whans8276 2022-04-11 12:56|| 2022-04-11 12:56|| Front Page Top

40 Russia's motive for the "special military operation" was to kill the Ukrainians and steal their land?

Well DUH. No shit, Sherlock. Good for Russia, great for Lockheed and the MIC.

Why do you think Biden appointed a noob ambassador in Kyiv and looked the other way when Zelensky began saying crazy provocative shit?

"Pivot to Asia," LOL. Biden greenlighted the invasion. Just like April Glaspie with Saddam.

Posted by Croger B. Hayes6317 2022-04-11 13:02|| 2022-04-11 13:02|| Front Page Top

41 "If you subscribe to X, that automatically means you subscribe to Y and Z."

Ayn Rand called that formulation "package dealing." It's dishonest and a sure sign the person pushing that statement has an agenda and they are twisting the dial looking for some way to make you admit it's the right agenda.

Ignore. It's a waste of time to refute.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-04-11 13:05|| 2022-04-11 13:05|| Front Page Top

42 And yet my typo will not kill any Ukrainians or any Russian soldiers.

Posted by Matt 2022-04-11 13:08|| 2022-04-11 13:08|| Front Page Top

43 #39 tobaco tobacco
is that American simplified spelling? I'm not opposed. Those aboriginal words' spellings are just arbitrary, anyway

The repeated consonant changes the pronunciation. One consonant makes the preceding stressed vowel long; two consonants makes it short.

'tobaco' would be pronounced like 'Waco'
'tobacco' is pronounced like 'wacko'

Posted by Omaitch Panda3973 2022-04-11 13:09|| 2022-04-11 13:09|| Front Page Top

44 #41 "If you subscribe to X, that automatically means you subscribe to Y and Z."

Who subscribes to anything these days? Just watch a few ads. Get it for free.

Posted by Omaitch Panda3973 2022-04-11 13:13|| 2022-04-11 13:13|| Front Page Top

45 What they lack in common sense they make up in volume.

Posted by Bobby 2022-04-11 14:22|| 2022-04-11 14:22|| Front Page Top

46 #27 The US Clown Sanctions are a trader's dream come true. Everyone's making big money off of this war and the sanctions. You could fly a 737 through all the loopholes and exemptions

Didn't Soros say the best time to make a fortune is when there's blood flowing in the streets?

Posted by Glomoque Flomomp8750 2022-04-11 14:56|| 2022-04-11 14:56|| Front Page Top

47 ^ No. Or if he did, he stole it. Yandex is your friend.

Posted by Glusoth Glereling8225 2022-04-11 15:01|| 2022-04-11 15:01|| Front Page Top

48 "yandex"??

I still use Windex. Don't know "yandex"

Posted by Glomoque Flomomp8750 2022-04-11 15:12|| 2022-04-11 15:12|| Front Page Top

49 Don't know "yandex"

They're a food delivery robot company that has contracts with colleges to give the kiddies their bad dorm food. Slop on wheels.

Posted by Croger B. Hayes6317 2022-04-11 15:18|| 2022-04-11 15:18|| Front Page Top

50 ^ DormDash LOL

Posted by Croger B. Hayes6317 2022-04-11 15:20|| 2022-04-11 15:20|| Front Page Top

51 So, is this the great commodity switch, where the commodity trade currency market introduces the World to Soylent Green due to uncontrollable food inflation and long term food shortages?

Posted by Don Vito Javirong6167 2022-04-11 16:10|| 2022-04-11 16:10|| Front Page Top

52 This’ll be the year, then, when all those bourgeois Americans in the suburbs plant ornamental edibles in the flower beds and add a few pots of tomatoes, peppers, and herbs near the front door, and the city folk ditto in window boxes?

Burpee it is, then.

Posted by trailing wife 2022-04-11 17:15|| 2022-04-11 17:15|| Front Page Top

53 I would not be surprised if Biden and advisors were heavily invested in commodities.

Posted by ruprecht 2022-04-11 17:42|| 2022-04-11 17:42|| Front Page Top

54 Food Shortage? That's basically the 4000 year history of mankind with short interludes of decent harvests. Shows how 'entitled and privileged' so many have become accustomed to in less than a hundred years.

Posted by Procopius2k 2022-04-11 17:54|| 2022-04-11 17:54|| Front Page Top

55 What I want to see is whether the obesity rate goes down. My initial gut take is no real change.

Posted by M. Murcek 2022-04-11 18:08|| 2022-04-11 18:08|| Front Page Top

56 #13 when Shell Plc, the largest European oil company, turns it into what traders refer to as a Latvian blend. ...to bring to market a barrel in which only 49.99% comes from Russia; in Shell’s eyes, as long as the other 50.01 percent is sourced elsewhere, the oil cargo isn’t technically of Russian origin.

I want me some o' dat Latvian Blend mmm $$$ ah kin smell it

Posted by Croger B. Hayes6317 2022-04-11 18:10|| 2022-04-11 18:10|| Front Page Top

57 #51 is this the great commodity switch, where the commodity trade currency market introduces the World to Soylent Green due to uncontrollable food inflation and long term food shortages?

Yes. Why do you ask? What is your Social Credit Score?

Posted by Rupert Shegum6360 2022-04-11 18:20|| 2022-04-11 18:20|| Front Page Top

58 WTSHTF:

White House warns of "extraordinarily elevated" inflation data

Posted by Croger B. Hayes6317 2022-04-11 19:27|| 2022-04-11 19:27|| Front Page Top

59 Not just inflation. Not just "elevated inflation."
"EXTRAORDINARILY
ELEVATED"
inflation numbers

Tomorrow will be a doozy. As will the next 2-3 years

Posted by Croger B. Hayes6317 2022-04-11 19:30|| 2022-04-11 19:30|| Front Page Top

60 Did the coppertop girl say "extraordinarily elevated inflation"? I think she meant to say stagflation. Yep, tomorrow will be a mother of a doozy

A 'recession shock' is coming to the US, Bank of America says

The U.S. economic outlook is darkening so rapidly that a recession may be on the horizon as the Federal Reserve makes an aggressive pivot to tame the hottest inflation in four decades, according to economists at Bank of America.

In an analyst note to clients, BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett warned that surging consumer prices, combined with an increasingly hawkish central bank, could precipitate an economic downturn in the U.S.

Posted by Glomoque Flomomp8750 2022-04-11 20:02|| 2022-04-11 20:02|| Front Page Top

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