Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
[RIA] Russian Armed Forces have taken control of the entire territory of the LPR, the Ministry of Defense reported.
"Units of the West military group have completed the liberation of the Luhansk People's Republic," the report states.
In addition, the fighters defeated the enemy in the area of Grushevka, Gusinka, Mayak, Monachinovka, Nechvolodovka, Palamarevka and Prosyanka in the Kharkiv region, as well as near Krasny Liman and Yatskovka in the DPR.
Over the course of a day, the enemy lost up to 170 soldiers, an infantry fighting vehicle, an armored personnel carrier, two Cossack armored fighting vehicles, 16 vehicles, six field artillery pieces, and an ammunition depot in the group's area of responsibility.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
[KorrespondentJ 22.53 Russian troops attacked Kryvyi Rih with drones, a 22-year-old was injured.
"The enemy attacked the city's infrastructure with rocket launchers. We have begun an emergency rescue operation and extinguishing the fire. At the moment, one 22-year-old guy is injured, lightly," said Oleksandr Vilkul, head of the Kryvyi Rih Defense Council.
22.03 On the evening of March 31, Russian forces launched a drone strike on the center of Nikopol. The attack injured 11 people. Multi-story buildings, shops, and cars were damaged.
21:54 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had a telephone conversation with German Federal Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Zelenskyy informed about his visit to the countries of the Middle East and the protection system that Ukraine offers to partners.
"I am grateful for the high assessment of our contribution to strengthening the protection of lives. Ukraine is ready for similar cooperation with European countries for the sake of the security of our continent," the president noted.
Merz, in turn, spoke about his diplomatic contacts. The leaders discussed in detail the negotiation process to end Russia's war against Ukraine and the communication of the Ukrainian team with the American side. The President thanked the Chancellor for her principled position - Ukraine has never been and will not be an obstacle to peace.
Ukraine is preparing contacts with partners in a wider circle to coordinate positions and develop joint steps. In particular, there will be a lot of bilateral work with Germany next month.
20.12 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a video conversation with the American side on April 1. From the Ukrainian side, the head of state and Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov will participate in the conversation, from the American side - Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner.
The conversation will be about "where we are" and preparations for a possible "at least a trilateral meeting," Zelenskyy noted.
The president said he would convey a proposal for an energy truce to the US, but there were no such signals from the Russian side.
"There were no signals from the Russian side to us. At least, we didn't receive any. I will definitely convey this to the US tomorrow... I will ask them to convey this proposal to the Russian side," the Ukrainian leader said.
19.45 Ukraine hopes that the US will help involve Russia in a trilateral meeting and support the proposal for a ceasefire for the Easter holidays. This was stated by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
18.29 In Krasnoyarsk, Russia, a cemetery where, in particular, military personnel who went to war against Ukraine are buried is rapidly increasing in size. A video is spreading online in which a Russian man is surprised by the size of the new cemetery.
"There is no end, no end. The new Shinny cemetery in Krasnoyarsk... Everything is like this, in flags. This is only what is in the field of view of the camera. It's just f***ing. Just look at the scale of this burial ground," the man says in the video.
Krasnoyarsk is located in Siberia, a considerable distance from Ukraine. The straight-line distance from Krasnoyarsk to the central regions of Ukraine is approximately 3,500-4,000 km.
18.15 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will hold a video conversation with the American side on Wednesday, April 1. He said this during a summit in the city of Bucha near Kyiv, Interfax-Ukraine reports.
The conversation will be about "where we are" and preparations for a possible "at least a trilateral meeting."
17.51 The aggressor country Russia demands that the Ukrainian army leave Donbas within two months . President Volodymyr Zelensky said this during a summit in the city of Bucha near Kyiv, Interfax-Ukraine reports.
17.43 DeepState analysts stated that the Russians allegedly occupied the villages of Sviato-Pokrovske and Vasyukivka, and advanced near Riznykivka and Bondarne. However, the East group of troops denied the information about the "occupation of the village of Vasyukivka." This is evidenced by the corresponding reports of Deepstate and the Defense Forces.
The Group of Forces East stressed that the report about the capture of Vasyukivka "does not correspond to reality." According to the military, Ukrainian units continue to hold the settlement, inflicting constant fire damage on the enemy.
However, in the area of Svyato-Pokrovsky, Ukrainian units did indeed withdraw to more western positions. This happened a few weeks ago. This decision was made to preserve the lives and health of servicemen, as well as to improve interaction between units.
17.43 More than 87,500 Ukrainian servicemen have been trained as part of the European Union Military Assistance Mission to Ukraine - EUMAM Ukraine, starting in 2022.
The mission's mandate includes: individual, collective and specialized training for the Armed Forces of Ukraine; coordination and synchronization of member states' activities in the field of training; EUMAM Ukraine covers a wide range of training programs (tactical medicine, CBRN protection (radiation, chemical, biological, nuclear), demining, logistics and communications, tactical planning and preparation for maneuver operations, live fire coordination).
17.27 In Chernivtsi region, an organized group was exposed that smuggled men of military age abroad. The scheme was organized by a 43-year-old border resident, involving six more accomplices familiar with the area.
A "hub" was set up in the village, where the men were collected, instructed and prepared for illegal crossing. Later, they were taken out through the forest to Romania in small groups of 5-7 people, coordinating their actions with walkie-talkies and using thermal imagers and night vision devices.
The cost of the service ranged from 5,000 to 15,000 euros per person. At least four episodes were documented, and more than 20 people were identified as using the scheme. Some of them were detained while trying to cross the border. The total profit exceeded 200,000 euros.
Nearly 40 searches resulted in the seizure of cash, communications equipment, and equipment. Six more men were found in one of the houses, ready for the crossing.
17.00 According to the evidence base of the Security Service, an FSB agent, whom the SBU exposed in March in Kherson, received 15 years in prison with confiscation of property.
The special services arrested the attacker "red-handed" when he tried to leave a bag with a homemade bomb at the entrance to the regional shopping center. Later, the Russian special services planned to remotely detonate it together with their agent.
The executor of the FSB order turned out to be an unemployed resident of Cherkasy, who came into the enemy's sights through Telegram channels in search of "easy money."
During the search, a homemade bomb and a phone with evidence of his contacts with an FSB supervisor were seized from the detainee.
16.53 Since the beginning of the day and as of 16:00, 88 Russian attacks have taken place on the front. Half of the enemy assaults were recorded in the Pokrovsk area, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine informs in an operational summary .
16.41 Russian troops are using dangerous types of ammunition in the Kharkiv region, in particular, cumulative-fragmentation.
"According to information from our explosives units, we have recorded the use of Russian cumulative fragmentation munitions in the region. They have a characteristic shape, similar to a bell, and are equipped with a self-destruction mechanism, which makes them especially dangerous for the civilian population," said Oleg Synegubov, head of the OVA.
Sinegubov noted that mines with a magnetic target sensor were also discovered: round in shape, green in color, which also have the property of self-destruction.
16.20 In Belgorod, Russia, a drone attacked the regional government building, damaging the facade and glazing of the building. Three people were injured. This was reported by the head of the region, Vyacheslav Gladkov, on social networks.
"As a result, three people were injured. Two more women sought medical attention. One of them is an employee, and the other is a visitor to the administration. Both were diagnosed with mine-blast injuries and barotrauma," he wrote.
The administration employee was hospitalized, while the visitor will be treated as an outpatient.
Earlier, Gladkov reported that the head of the administrative and economic department was injured in the building. The man received shrapnel wounds to his legs, abdomen, and arm. He was hospitalized.
Local media noted that it was likely a strike by an FPV drone.
15.51 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and First Lady Olena Zelenska, on the fourth anniversary of the liberation of Bucha in the Kyiv region from Russian occupiers, honored the memory of Ukrainians who were killed and tortured by Russian invaders in February-March 2022.
Volodymyr and Olena Zelensky installed lamps at the memorial located on the territory of the Church of the Holy Apostle Andrew the First-Called and All Saints of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine.
Russian invaders occupied Bucha for 33 days: from February 27 to March 31, 2022. During this time, 561 civilians died, including 12 children.
15.45 In the Russian Tatarstan , one person was killed and 50 others were injured in an explosion in the city of Nizhnekamsk at the Nizhnekamskneftekhim plant . This was reported by the press service of the SIBUR holding company, which owns the plant.
The explosion allegedly occurred due to an "equipment failure." A large-scale fire is being extinguished at Nizhny Kamskneftekhim.
15.24 The Ministry of Defense codified and admitted to operation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine the domestically produced Shvidun unmanned aerial vehicle complex. It was developed specifically to defeat attack drones such as Shahed-136, Geran, Gerber, and reconnaissance drones such as Zala, Supercam, and Skat.
The Shvidun unmanned aerial vehicle complex is made of durable composite material. It weighs about 8 kg and has a wingspan of almost 2 m. The drone can climb to a height of up to 6 km and reach speeds of over 250 km/h.
The range of this drone is over 70 km, which is enough to cover the skies over any Ukrainian city. The Shvidun can stay in the air for over two hours.
Currently, the Shvidun UAV has one of the highest kill rates of Russian Shahed drones among Ukrainian-made interceptor drones. In particular, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have already destroyed about a hundred enemy drones with the help of this drone.
15.00 Moscow will take measures if European Union countries provide their airspace for Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a briefing.
14.57 As a result of the drone attack on March 28 in Odessa, the number of dead has increased to eight people. This was reported by the head of the OVA, Oleg Kiper.
"A 76-year-old man who suffered serious injuries died in the hospital. His condition remained extremely serious from the beginning," Kiper noted.
This brings the death toll from the attack to three. Another 14 people, including a 9-year-old boy, were injured.
14:45 Russian aggressors twice attacked the city of Chuguev in Kharkiv region with strike drones. Five people are known to have been injured, including police officers, the National Police reported.
14.28 Attempts by the occupiers to use fog and mist for a covert advance into Hryshyne, northwest of Pokrovsk, are fruitless. This was reported by the 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Airborne Assault Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is noted that units in the area of responsibility of the 7th Airborne Assault Corps are working out enemy targets on the approaches to the settlement. According to preliminary information, the Defense Forces destroyed a company-level officer in the area of Hryshyne.
This caused disorganization in enemy units and reduced combat capabilities.
14.21 In the Russian republic of Tatarstan, a powerful explosion occurred in the city of Nizhnekamsk on the territory of the Nizhnekamskneftekhim plant. Six victims are currently known.
14.09 There were fewer than 10 foreign drones in Estonian airspace on the night of March 31, and the Police and Border Guard Department (PPA) is checking three places where they could have crashed, ERR reports. As Colonel Uku Arold, Head of the Strategic Communications Department of the Estonian Defence Forces General Staff, told a press conference, this was the fourth night of a massive attack by Ukrainian drones on military and war-supporting infrastructure in northwestern Russia.
13.58 A Ukrainian citizen was detained by FSB representatives in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation on charges of espionage, according to the Russian publication Astra, which positions itself as independent.
13.50 Four more Kremlin supporters who justified Russia's armed aggression and spread fake news about the Defense Forces of Ukraine have been detained, the SBU reported on March 31.
13.39 The Ukrainian authorities should focus on achieving peace, not offering a truce. This was the cynical statement made by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, commenting on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's readiness to agree to a truce for Easter.
13.10 Russians struck the railway infrastructure of the city of Sloviansk in Donetsk region. Four people are known to have been injured , Ukrzaliznytsia informs.
12.52 State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) officers, with the support of the Western Territorial Department of the Military Law Enforcement Service, have exposed an organized group that has established a systematic "business" of helping servicemen leave service. The scheme operated at the training center of the National Academy of the Land Forces. The SBI reported this on March 31.
It is noted that for 10-15 thousand US dollars, the defendants provided full support: instruction, removal from the unit, transportation and delivery home. The group included a serviceman in the SZCh, a former law enforcement officer and a civilian. They looked for clients directly at the training ground and persuaded them to voluntarily leave the service.
The organizer was a military man who had previously used this scheme himself and later began to earn money from others.
12.30 In the 4 years since the de-occupation of Bucha in the Kyiv region, 124 of the most audacious crimes committed by the Russian occupiers have been revealed, including 84 murders and 40 cases of cruel treatment of civilians. This was reported by the National Police.
11.59 The Russian occupation administration of Donbas has systematically promoted the thesis that a stable water supply will allegedly become possible only after the capture of Sloviansk, through which the Seversky Donets - Donbas canal passes. But now the occupiers have come up with a new version: Ukraine allegedly mined the water canal. This is reported by the Center for Countering Disinformation.
11.24 The Agreement on Security Cooperation between Ukraine and Bulgaria became the 29th security document that Kyiv signed in implementation of the G7 Joint Declaration. This was announced the day before by the Deputy Head of the OPU, Ihor Zhovkva, on Facebook.
10.56 Law enforcement officers have exposed a Russian spy network in Kyiv that was preparing contract killings of military personnel and volunteers . The group members were detained immediately before the crime was committed, the Prosecutor General's Office reported.
10.38 On Tuesday morning, five regions of Ukraine experienced power outages due to new Russian shelling. Ukrenergo reported this. Emergency restoration work is already underway wherever security conditions currently allow.
10.32 Information that the mobilization process will enter a new stage of administration from April 1 is not true. The Ministry of Defense has developed a comprehensive plan for the transformation of the mobilization system, which will be announced later. This was stated by Deputy Minister of Defense Yevhen Moysiuk, Ukrinform reports.
9.42 Russian troops shelled Sloviansk at night. Three people, including a child, were injured in a Russian airstrike. This was reported on March 31 by the head of the Sloviansk city military administration, Vadim Lyakh. According to him, the Russians struck the city at night with two FAB-250s.
The private sector was hit. At least 22 private houses and three cars were damaged. Currently, three people are known to have been injured. Among them is a 12-year-old girl. All of them have been provided with the necessary medical assistance.
9.21 On the front line over the past 24 hours, 140 combat clashes between the Ukrainian Defense Forces and Russian invaders were recorded. This was reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on March 31. Aviation, missile troops and artillery of the Defense Forces struck two areas of concentration of manpower and one Russian UAV control point.
8.40 Air defense forces neutralized 267 of the 289 drones used by Russian forces to attack Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported this on March 31. 20 strike UAVs were hit at 11 locations, as well as downed drones (fragments) falling at six locations.
8.19 On March 31, a Russian drone hit the balcony of an apartment on the third floor of an apartment building in Odessa, injuring a man. This was reported by the head of the Odessa OVA, Oleg Kiper. According to him, the facade was damaged, the glazing was broken, and the balconies from the second to fourth floors were destroyed. A fire broke out. It was quickly extinguished by rescuers. The injured 50-year-old man has a cut wound to his forearm. He is being provided with all necessary medical assistance.
7.51 Over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian Defense Forces killed and wounded 970 Russian occupiers, bringing the total enemy losses in the war to 1,297,670 people. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported this on March 31.
03.00 In the Poltava region, a person died and three people were injured, including a child, as a result of the fall of debris from a Russian UAV.
02.24 Ukrainian developers have tested a new generation of bomber drones that have a longer range, increased payload, and secure communications. The new developments allow operators to work from safer positions thanks to secure communications and increased flight range.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
[NewsFront] 20:39 From 09:00 to 20:00 Moscow time by air defense systems on duty destroyed1 8 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles of the aircraft type:
14 over the territory of the Belgorod region,
Two over the territory of the Bryansk region,
Two over the territory of the Kursk region.
19:10 Advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the southwestern part of Konstantinovka, –MAP
18:52 122mm D-30 howitzer crew of the Sever group destroyed stronghold of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Khar'kov region.
Servicemen from the Southern Group of Forces hit an enemy stronghold with fire from a towed 152mm Msta-B howitzer in the Konstantinovsky direction.
16:15 Video: Combat operations by the 3rd Army Corps of the Southern Group of Forces against targets in the village of Konstantinovka. A fuel depot and two antitank guns of the Ukrainian Armed Forces were destroyed during the firefight.
15:21 Dobropillya direction. Assault units of the Central Guard continue to advance northeast of Grishino, MAP.
14:31 Crews of long-range anti-submarine aircraft Tu-142 of the Northern Fleet's mixed aviation corps worked out in-flight refueling.
13:07 Drive the enemy out of the village of Malaya Korchakivka in Sumy Oblast succeeded as a result of the coordinated work of the 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 44th Army Corps.
12:39 Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of March 31, 2026)
The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct a special military operation.
As a result of active operations, units of the North military group established control over the village of Malaya Korchakovka in the Sumy region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces sustained losses in the mechanized brigade and territorial defense brigade near Potapovka, Myropillia, Chervona Zarya, and Kondratovka in Sumy Oblast. In Khar'kov Oblast, units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' mechanized and motorized infantry brigades and two territorial defense brigades were defeated near Zhovtneve, Bily Kolodez, Vovchanski Khutora, Verkhnyaya Pisarevka, and Izbitskoye in Khar'kov Oblast. The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost over 270 service members and seven vehicles. Three ammunition depots, a fuel and lubricants depot, and eight supply depots were destroyed.
Units of the West group of forces took up a more advantageous tactical position.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces defeated the personnel and equipment of two mechanized brigades and two territorial defense brigades near the settlements of Osinovo, Chervony Oskol, and Novy Mir in the Khar'kov region, and Krasny Liman, Krymki, Svyatogorsk, and Stary Karavan in the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy lost up to 170 servicemen, an armored combat vehicle, 27 vehicles, three artillery pieces, and a counter-battery radar. Three ammunition depots were destroyed.
Units of the Southern group of forces occupied more advantageous lines and positions.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces defeated formations of two mechanized brigades, a mountain assault brigade, a motorized infantry brigade, an assault brigade, an unmanned aerial systems brigade, and a territorial defense brigade near the settlements of Konstantinovka, Orekhovatka, Slavyansk, Ilyinovka, Lipovka, Rai-Aleksandrovka, Krivaya Luka, Golubovka, and Artema in the Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy lost up to 135 service members, three armored combat vehicles, 12 vehicles, three artillery pieces, and three electronic warfare stations. Five supply depots were destroyed.
Units of the Center group of forces have improved their position along the forward edge.
They inflicted losses on the personnel and equipment of two mechanized brigades, an infantry brigade, three assault regiments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a naval infantry brigade, a National Guard brigade, and two territorial defense brigades near the settlements of Novopavlivka, Serhiivka, Priyut, and Grishino Krasnoyarskoye in the Donetsk People's Republic and Novopidgorodnoye in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Ukrainian armed forces lost over 375 service members, 14 armored combat vehicles, 19 vehicles, a field artillery gun, and four electronic warfare stations.
Units of the Eastern Group of Forces continued to advance into the depths of the enemy's defenses.
They defeated formations of a mechanized and a naval infantry brigade near the settlements of Boykovo, Vozdvizhevka, Dolinka, Kopani, and Yehorivka in the Zaporizhzhia region and Gavrilovka in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The enemy lost over 270 servicemen, two armored combat vehicles, 10 vehicles, two artillery pieces, and two ammunition and supply depots.
Units of the Dnepr group of forces improved their tactical position and defeated the manpower and equipment of two mechanized brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the areas of the settlements of Preobrazhenka and Orekhov in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Over 40 military personnel, nine vehicles, two electronic warfare stations, three ammunition depots, and two materiel depots were destroyed. Tactical aviation, strike drones, missile forces, and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces struck Ukrainian energy, fuel, and transport infrastructure facilities used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, launch sites and storage sites for long-range unmanned aerial vehicles, as well as temporary deployment sites for Ukrainian armed forces and foreign mercenaries in 158 districts. Air defense assets shot down six guided bombs and 255 fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicles.
12:07 As a result of the joint work of the Rubicon Center crews and the Russian Aerospace Forces crews destroyed temporary deployment points for Ukrainian Armed Forces personnel and enemy UAV control points.
10:43 GV "Sever" liberated Malaya Korchakivka in the Sumy region, MAP
10:38 Changes on map over the past 24 hours:
Advance in Konstantinovka
Advance in Kurilovka
Enemy counterattacks in Belitsky and Novy
08:55 During the past night, from 23:00 Moscow time on March 30 to 7:00 Moscow time on March 31, air defense systems on duty intercepted and destroyed 92 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles of the fixed-wing type over the territories of the Bryansk, Belgorod, Leningrad, Kursk, Novgorod, Rostov, Samara, Smolensk, Oryol, Kaluga, Tver regions and the Moscow region.
07:30 AGS-17 "Flame" Combined Arms Army of the West group of forcestore off an attempt by Ukrainian Armed Forces militants to attack one of the strongholds of the formation in the Krasnolimansk direction.
During aerial reconnaissance, small groups of Ukrainian Armed Forces militants were detected moving within the reconnaissance team's area of responsibility. In an attempt to outflank the attack aircraft entrenched in the stronghold, the enemy made the mistake of moving into open terrain. An AGS-17 crew took up a favorable firing position and, using UAV-aided targeting, engaged the militant group. Suffering losses, the enemy hastily retreated, leaving their wounded behind.
06:05 Naval infantry 122mm BM-21 Grad MLRS crews of the Center group torn caught rotation of the enemy in the Dobropolsky direction.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited by Mikhail Pavliv
[REGNUM] As soon as the Gulf War began, behind the wave of Ukrainian joy, even the most sober-minded predicted the very grave consequences of the US's "new infatuation."
And they turned out to be right on a number of points, where the air defense system comes first – in this area, the situation is, without exaggeration, already catastrophic.
Without any journalistic exaggeration, the point is that in repelling the Iranian attacks, the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Kuwait, according to data that is now being actively discussed in the American press, used about 2,400 interceptor missiles out of the approximately 2,800 they had in stock.
This primarily refers to the Patriot missiles that are the main ones for Ukraine, namely the PAC 2 GEM T and PAC 3 MSE.
And in the first days of hostilities alone, hundreds of PAC 3s were produced—up to eight hundred units. This means that a single high-intensity regional conflict literally burns through stockpiles that took years to build up in just a few weeks.
And it's impossible to replenish them quickly—to the great regret of Zelenskyy, who is begging for these very expensive munitions literally wherever he can. Although the Patriot systems, of course, have only one owner—the United States. And the situation there is tense.
Missile manufacturer Lockheed Martin reached annual production of approximately 620 PAC 3 missiles (another 30 are produced under license in Japan) by 2025 alone. And only in the long term (by 2030) does it plan to increase production to 2,000 units.
For PAC 2, the picture is even more modest: we are talking about approximately twenty missiles per month, with the intention of increasing to thirty-five by the end of 2027.
In other words, a modern full-scale war (not a local conflict with limited contingents, as NATO countries have become accustomed to in recent decades) with the active use of long-range drones has demonstrated the inability of production to keep up with consumption.
Already in the naked, crude, accounting reality.
But the problems for American and allied air defenses don't end there; they're just beginning. Because the shortage isn't limited to Patriots. AIM 120 AMRAAM missiles, used on both F-16 fighters and NASAMS systems, are also being sucked into the same vortex. And this munition is also needed by two key elements of that same Ukrainian air defense system.
Manufacturers are claiming to increase AMRAAM production to around 1,900 per year, but only in a couple of years. For the AIM 9X Sidewinder, the target is 2,500 per year (at the same time), but even that is unlikely to be sufficient in the new environment—there's not just Ukraine, but also European countries. Plus, there's a pressing need for ammunition in the Middle East, for the US itself, and for its Asian allies.
And also to replenish depleted arsenals around the world.
Until recently, the Ukrainian government believed that the West was a vast military machine that could supply it with missiles, launchers, spare parts, and new solutions almost endlessly. "A land dripping with milk and honey."
But it turned out that there is no infinity there - just like there is no milk.
There are queues, there is competition for resources, there are US allies who also need to cover their skies, and there is a hard limit to industry that cannot be exceeded with the snap of a finger.
Indeed, this is precisely why the Ukrainian situation is quickly becoming part of a global air defense crisis. Although for Ukraine itself, this is essentially a death sentence.
It's no secret that the "success of the defense forces" relies entirely on external supplies—the Soviet resource has long since run out, and there are none of our own. This means that the longer the Gulf War continues, the more PAC 2 and PAC 3 are burned, and the more actively the US and its allies begin to patch their own holes, the faster the Ukrainian skies will turn into a sieve.
So even if we beg for new Patriot batteries, there is nowhere to get the missiles for them.
Despite the world being treated to Ukraine's "our specialists will protect your skies" charade, their own air defense system is in crisis. This is evident from the regime's own public statements, which are clearly not being disingenuous. Back in February, at the Munich Security Conference, Zelenskyy publicly admitted that "the units remain essentially 'empty.'"
"Sometimes we manage to bring in new Patriot or NASAMS missiles right before a strike, sometimes literally at the last minute," he complained to his "allies." But life was different in February.
Now Ukraine's missile consumption has reached a level that cannot be compensated for even by past deliveries. Even the most conservative estimates put the number at 60-70 Patriot missiles per month, while more stringent European estimates put the figure at 2,000 interceptor missiles per year.
The shortage is not limited to Patriots, although they remain a key tool for protecting critical installations.
The entire Ukrainian air defense system currently rests on several interconnected elements, each of which is reaching the same ceiling. The most expensive and scarce systems have already been discussed. Next come NASAMS and aviation. And finally, the few remnants of the Soviet legacy, such as the S-300 and Buk systems.
There have already been instances where Ukrainian F-16s were left with literally just a few AIM-9 missiles for the entire squadron. Meanwhile, the aircraft themselves are actively used to intercept not only missiles but also drones—a similar task now being carried out by Israeli aircraft, the air forces of Arab monarchies, and the US Air Force.
The priority here is obvious.
Moreover, the Polish press recently reported that Washington even received a request to move one of Poland's Patriot systems to the Iranian conflict zone. The Poles have so far refused.
At the same time, European media are trumpeting a US request for the return of ammunition and weapons already supplied to Ukraine under the PURL program. Although Secretary of State Marco Rubio has so far denied it.
Bankova is reacting to these signals with extreme nervousness, and against this backdrop, the logic behind the decisions the Ukrainian side is now being forced to make becomes clear. It's an attempt to plug growing holes by any means available, including patently outdated solutions.
First and foremost, this is a return to previous-generation missiles. This refers to the AIM 7 Sparrow and its European variants, the Skyflash and Aspide. These missiles were retired after the introduction of the AIM 120 because they are inferior in virtually every respect, require constant target illumination, and perform significantly worse in electronic countermeasure environments.
But they have one quality that is becoming crucial in the current situation: they are in stockpiles and used by adapting Soviet-era Buk missile systems. However, they are unsuitable for NASAMS, meaning Ukraine is guaranteed to lose 12 such batteries (approximately 100 launchers).
A hole in the air defense, and what a hole.
At the same time, Kyiv is promoting the idea of interceptor drones, which are intended to compensate for the shortage of missiles. In practice, however, these are still "garage-build" solutions, as Armin Papperger, head of the German defense concern Rheinmetall, was quick to point out :
"Who's the largest drone manufacturer in Ukraine? Ukrainian housewives. They have 3D printers in their kitchens, and they print drone parts. What kind of innovation is Ukraine experiencing? They haven't achieved any technological breakthroughs. They make small drones and say, 'Wow!' That's great, but it's not the technology of Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, or Rheinmetall... It's like playing with Lego."
Separately, the Ukrainian government has rushed to discuss European projects. First and foremost, those related to the IRIS T SLM systems, where Spain, British investors, and Ukrainian entities are attempting to expand production and move toward a full-cycle missile production.
At the same time, London, through the German government, is negotiating with Diehl Defence, the manufacturer of the systems, to change the production order and prioritize supplies to Ukraine. However, this is a slow process, with a time horizon of several years.
And it certainly doesn't close the current gap of 2026.
At the same time, another factor arises, which is still underestimated in the public sphere, but it can play a key role.
Washington is well aware of the scale of the interceptor missile shortage and its obligations to its allies. And it is against this backdrop that American policy is already shaping a course toward reducing or revising the remaining aid to Kyiv.
We are talking about the narrative of “Ukrainian corruption”.
Donald Trump Jr.’s recent statements about a "massive fraud against the American people," investigative journalist John Solomon's reporting on a "decade of corruption," accusations from members of Congress, including Anna Paulina Luna, and the harsh rhetoric of administration officials directed at Zelenskyy create a backdrop that is difficult to ignore.
According to this logic, refusing any supplies to Ukraine receives political cover. It's enough to cite the lack of transparency in Ukrainian schemes, the risks of misuse of aid, and the need for investigations—and this alleviates significant pressure from both European allies and the domestic opposition in the United States. The end result is a beautifully crafted scheme.
Shifting priorities, the problems with Iran, which have the Americans bogged down, and the global shortage of super-expensive weapons used to bombard drones are all quite naturally hitting Ukraine's main problem—its complete lack of independence. The lack of "competence," which Kyiv officials puff out their cheeks and talk about.
Therefore, as early as this year, Ukraine is highly likely to face a situation in which it still has launchers, but nothing to fire them with. Beautiful Patriot and NASAMS aircraft without missiles, F-16s with minimal armament.
But there was an endless supply of jars of cucumbers, which, according to legend, Ukrainian citizens deftly used to shoot down everything in the sky during the first year of the war.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
