[RedState] On Sunday, the Department of Justice (DOJ) filed a memorandum in support of the pretrial detention of accused pipebomberBrian Cole Jr.,
…age 30 and probably autistic, he worked a few hours a day at his father’s bail bond company, which specializes in getting illegal aliens off, and lived with his mother in a sprawling, expensive house in Northern Virginia. Apparently he was a fan of My Little Pony and his beloved chihuahua, which he walked every day in the neighbourhood until it recently died…
and it's liable to raise some eyebrows (and possibly some folks' blood pressure).
You'll note that the headline referenc "J5," not "J6" — there's a reason for that. A rather important reason. We'll get to that.
But first, to refresh: On December 4, 2025, nearly five years after the infamous incident in which pipe bombs were found near both the DNC and RNC headquarters, just as all hell was breaking loose at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, authorities arrested the man they allege planted those bombs: 30-year-old Brian Cole Jr. of Woodbridge, Virginia.
Cole was charged with two felonies:
Explosive Device — transportation in interstate commerce with intent to kill, injure, or intimidate any individual or unlawfully to damage or destroy any building, vehicle, or other real or personal property (in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 844(d))
Explosive Device — malicious destruction or attempted malicious destruction by means of fire and explosive materials (in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 844(i))
Cole made his initial appearance in court the following day but did not enter a plea. His detention hearing was initially set for December 15, 2025, then continued to December 30, 2025.
Ahead of that detention hearing, the DOJ filed its memorandum in support of Cole's pre-trial detention. The memorandum is only 23 pages long and worth the read for those with a keen interest in the case, but I'm going to highlight the key assertions in the document, which, bear in mind, was submitted on behalf of the Trump Justice Department by U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro. After walking through, in great detail, Cole's alleged acquisition of the materials used in constructing the bombs and his actions in and around the evening of January 5, we get into the heart of his motivation:
During the interview, which was video-recorded, the defendant initially denied manufacturing, transporting, and planting the pipe bombs. When asked about his whereabouts on January 5, 2021, the defendant stated that he drove his Nissan Sentra to Washington, D.C. by himself that evening to attend a protest concerning the outcome of the 2020 election.
The defendant explained: “I didn’t agree with what people were doing, like just telling half the country that they – that their – that they just need to ignore it. I didn’t think that was a good idea, so I went to the protest.”
The defendant “has never really been an openly political person” and does not discuss politics often with his family to avoid conflict. According to the defendant, “no one knows” his political views, including his family.
Later in the interview, the defendant explained that after the 2020 election, “when it first seemed like something was wrong” and “stuff started happening,” he began following the issue closely on YouTube and Reddit and felt “bewildered.” In the defendant’s view, if people “feel that, you know, something as important as voting in the federal election is being tampered with, is being, you know, being – you know, relegated null and void, then, like, someone needs to speak up, right? Someone up top. You know, just to, just to at the very least calm things down.”
The defendant felt that “the people up top,” including “people on both sides, public figures,” should not “ignore[e] people’s grievances” or call them “conspiracy theorists,” “bad people,” “Nazis,” or “fascists.” Instead, “if people feel that their votes are like just being thrown away, then . . . at the very least someone should address it.”
Up until that point, Cole maintained he had not planted the pipe bombs, but later, after being confronted with the surveillance video and/or a still image from it, Cole eventually admitted that he was the individual shown on the video. He then walked the investigators through his process of constructing, transporting, and planting the bombs.
The defendant stated that he assembled the devices in the hours before he drove to Washington, D.C. on January 5, 2021, and that he cleaned the devices with disinfectant wipes. Eventually, the defendant admitted that he did not go to Washington, D.C. to attend a protest but in fact traveled there to plant the devices.
The defendant placed one of the devices in his backpack, exited his car, and walked toward the DNC. He set the timer on the first device to the maximum duration (60 minutes) and planted the device near the DNC. The defendant then returned to his car, retrieved the second device and placed it in his backpack, and walked to the RNC, where he set the timer for 60 minutes and planted the device.
According to the defendant, he was not really thinking about how people would react when the bombs detonated, although he hoped there would be news about it.
The defendant stated that he had not tested the devices before planting them. He claimed that when he learned that the devices did not detonate, he was “pretty relieved,” and asserted that he placed the devices at night because he did not want to kill people.
The defendant stated that he did not tell anyone about the pipe bombs before planting them or in the years since.
When the interviewing agents returned to the defendant’s motive, he explained that “something just snapped” after “watching everything, just everything getting worse.” The defendant wanted to do something “to the parties” because “they were in charge.” When asked why he placed the devices at the RNC and DNC, the defendant responded, “I really don’t like either party at this point.”
The defendant also explained that the idea to use pipe bombs came from his interest in history, specifically the Troubles in Ireland. The defendant denied that his actions were directed toward Congress or related to the proceedings scheduled to take place on January 6.
Politico, of course, ran an article following the DOJ's filing of the memorandum headlined:
Well, no, it doesn't. Look for yourself in the excerpts above — or in the linked memorandum if you're concerned that anything critical in that regard was omitted. Yes, Cole expressed concern about the election and frustration that people's concerns about the election weren't being addressed. But...I suppose to Politico, any questions raised about the election are simply "conspiracy theories" — and must be dismissed. Either way, the DOJ memo doesn't say what Politico says it says. Maybe I'm picking nits, but that headline is misleading at best.
That said, no doubt there are many who remain unconvinced that Cole is the culprit, and that's certainly understandable. This investigation was left to moulder, and the lack of information surrounding the incident for years allowed all manner of speculation to build. That, combined with the Biden DOJ's fervor directed at anyone in the vicinity of the Capitol on January 6th, has probably ensured that, for many, the questions will never be resolved.
But...for those willing to accept what the current DOJ has to say about it at face value:
Cole acted alone
Cole was upset about the 2020 election
Cole blamed both of the parties
Cole planted the bombs, intending for them to go off on the night of January 5
Of course, that is taking Cole's account at face value, as well. But if one does, it's no longer accurate to refer to him as the (alleged) J6 pipebomber.
Posted by: trailing wife ||
12/30/2025 2025-12-30 01:15 ||
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#1
Between the corrupt DC federal court judges and the brain dead DC jury pool, he get off very very lightly. Unless Congress awakens from its decades-long stupor and takes the clearly indicated step of abolishing the current DC federal district court and rendered all current DC federal judges unemployed, just as once happened in 1863.
All Congressional Reps and 1/3 of current Senators are up for re-election or replacement 3 Nov 2026. Talk this issue up with the candidates starting now.
Way back in the day, while I was researching units in WWII, I had the devil of a time trying to find information about the Italian involvement (especially Italian units part of the Afrika Korps), including data on uniforms and the like.
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics.
[ColonelCassad] Retired Saudi Colonel Jassim Abu Abdelrahman made a number of high-profile statements regarding the UAE's role in the Middle East.
1. The UAE operates in very close alliance with Israel and acts as a conduit for its policies in the region.
2. The UAE seeks to dismember Saudi Arabia into several states, which is in line with Israel's interests.
3. The UAE seeks to dismember Yemen (I wrote about the UAE's plans to annex Socotra Island and separate the Hadramaut province from Yemen back in the early 1920s).
4. The UAE actively supports the civil war in Sudan by sponsoring the RRF against the Burhan military government.
Overall, this is more or less the case. Israel and the UAE have agreements to train mercenaries in the Negev Desert. Israel was interested in destabilizing Sudan, which was in the midst of improving relations with Iran.
Israel is interested in dismembering Yemen to prevent the Houthis from establishing control over all of Yemen.
Furthermore, an Israeli intelligence base has been established on the island of Socotra, which is effectively occupied by the Emirates. Israel's recognition of Somaliland and the recent conflict between the Saudis and the Emiratis in southern Yemen are part of this same game.
None of this makes sense to me, but no doubt that’s my ignorance showing.
Posted by: badanov ||
12/30/2025 00:00 ||
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[1808 views]
Top|| File under: Govt of Saudi Arabia
#2
Grom, you missed it.
It's always the Jews, even when it's not the Jews, because the Jews aren't there.
Posted by: ed in texas ||
12/30/2025 8:32 Comments ||
Top||
#3
Re #2: because the Jews aren't there
Antigonish
by William Hughes Mearns
Yesterday, upon the stair,
I met a man who wasn't there!
He wasn't there again today,
I wish, I wish he'd go away!
When I came home last night at three,
The man was waiting there for me
But when I looked around the hall,
I couldn't see him there at all!
Go away, go away, don't you come back any more!
Go away, go away, and please don't slam the door... (slam!)
Last night I saw upon the stair,
A little man who wasn't there
He wasn't there again today
Oh, how I wish he'd go away....
[Breitbart] An African-heritage lawmaker in France has sparked outrage by seemingly hailing the so-called ‘Great Replacement’ of the native people of the country by foreigners.
Carlos Martens Bilongo, a member of the National Assembly for the far-left La France Insoumise (France in Rebellion/LFI), in an appearance on the “African Bookstore” podcast, appeared to boast that minorities are outbreeding the native French people, Le Journal du Dimanche reported.
Without explicitly stating the groups he was discussing, the Val-d’Oise MP, who was born in France to Congolese (DRC) and Angolan parents, urged people to “show them that we are more numerous and that we are more intelligent.”
“If we’ve had more children than them, too bad for them. If they wanted to have children, they should have just loved each other, made love, and had children. We managed to have them. Our mothers managed to raise us properly,” Bilongo continued.
Unfortunately, that’s fair. Of course, the immigrants have gotten a lot of government financial and other support that the natives weren’t given, raising their cost per child, but in the end decline is a choice. It’s just rude for the replacers to be smug about it.
While the LFI lawmaker was seemingly attempting to keep his comments sufficiently vague, one of the interviewers even noted that his comments appeared to vindicate the concept of the “Great Replacement” coined by French philosopher Renaud Camus, which stipulates that global elites see their populations as fungible economic units rather than human beings with a right to preserve their cultures in their homelands.
Although Western legacy media outlets and establishment politicians have sought to cast the view as a “far-right conspiracy theory”, a recent national survey has found that half of the French public believe that the Great Replacement is real and that elites are actively attempting to replace them in their own country.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited by Gregor Spitzen
[REGNUM] The current state of the Federal Republic of Germany is such that a year without major setbacks or upheavals can already be considered a remarkable achievement. On the other hand, the country has seen negative GDP growth for the third consecutive year.
The year was marred by the bankruptcies of nearly 24,000 companies and the closure of several plants of leading German automakers. These results hardly provide a good reason to look forward to 2026 with optimism.
BARELY CHANCELLOR
On February 23, 2025, elections for a new Bundestag were held in Germany, which were postponed to an earlier date because the coalition of the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP fell apart in November 2024.
The CDU/CSU emerged as the strongest party with 22.6%. The AfD showed the second-strongest result, with 20.8%.
Germany's oldest party, the SPD, posted its worst-ever federal election results, with 16.4%.
The Greens lost ground compared to the 2021 elections, receiving 11.6% of the vote. The Left Party entered parliament with 8.8%, a significant increase.
And the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance party, which was tipped for a bright future just a few months before the elections, failed to enter the Bundestag with a disappointing 4.9% result, falling just 13,000 votes short of the threshold.
The CDU/CSU and the SPD ultimately formed a two-party government coalition, which, on the second attempt to be approved in the Bundestag, was headed by Friedrich Merz, who earned the offensive nickname "Barely Chancellor".
Merz avoided making overtly offensive remarks about Trump and, like British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, did not call himself an anti-Trumpist. However, his first inaugural visit to Washington was marked by a distinctly tense atmosphere.
After Trump gave Volodymyr Zelensky a good dressing down in the Oval Office, Mertz was even given a short course in psychology and nonverbal communication, so as not to inadvertently anger the eccentric leader of the American nation with a careless word or gesture.
DEFENSE AND "SPECIAL ASSETS"
On March 18, a few days before the start of the first session of the new Bundestag, the deputies of the old convocation adopted an amendment to the Basic Law, which was voted for by the CDU, CSU, SPD and the Greens.
Under this amendment, investments in defence, civil defence and civil protection, as well as expenditure on German intelligence services, can be financed through loans without being subject to the debt brake.
At the same time, the federal government intends to create a special fund of €500 billion for infrastructure development and climate protection.
The voting that took place also became a technological device bordering on voter deception.
The law had to be implemented during the outgoing parliament, providing guarantees to the Green Party, which would not be included in the new Bundestag.
In its new composition, the CDU/CSU and SPD no longer had the votes to implement the law. This was especially true given that the opposition parties Die Linke and AfD were vehemently opposed.
What was particularly piquant was that the CDU/CSU bloc, led by Friedrich Merz, won the elections largely thanks to slogans about budget discipline and the inadmissibility of raising the debt threshold, while actively criticizing his predecessor, Olaf Scholz, for his intention to loosen the “debt brake” by €60 billion.
A few weeks after the elections, Merz weakened it by €500 billion, to which another €300 billion was subsequently added.
MILITARY SERVICE REFORM
In early December 2025, the Bundestag voted to reform military service. While it will remain formally voluntary, in the future, young men born after 2008 will once again be subject to mandatory military service.
Currently, all school graduates, starting in 2026, will be required to undergo a mandatory medical examination and complete a questionnaire about their readiness for military service.
By 2035, the Bundeswehr's strength is expected to grow to approximately 460,000 active-duty soldiers and reservists. If the army fails to find enough volunteers, the Bundestag will be able to pass a resolution introducing compulsory military service. The Bundesrat approved the military service law on December 19.
Judging by the nationwide schoolchildren's rally against military reform that took place in all German federal state capitals on December 5, the Bundeswehr is expected to face serious problems with recruiting new soldiers.
Just before Christmas, the German military decided to tighten the screws early, announcing that future conscripts' failure to fill out the questionnaire would be punishable by law.
Initially, those who dodge the form will be reminded of their obligation. Failure to complete the form will still be considered an administrative offense, punishable by a fine of up to €1,000. The same applies to knowingly providing false information on the form and failing to appear for a medical examination.
If conscripts miss their scheduled time without a valid reason, police may be called to "bring them in," a ministry spokesman emphasized.
Thus, the German state, realizing that no young person wants to voluntarily serve in an army that could potentially be sent abroad to participate in an armed conflict, is already beginning to tighten the conditions.
THE BALKAN GUESTS' SCAMS
In 2025, European countries, including Germany, increasingly introduced border checks at internal Schengen borders, citing the risks associated with illegal migration.
People arriving from countries that had newly joined the agreement – Bulgaria and Romania – were also subject to checks.
Given that organized crime from the Balkan countries controls a significant portion of prostitution, drug trafficking, begging and petty theft on the streets of tourist cities, as well as telephone fraud, many politicians in Western European countries were strongly opposed to such a move.
Furthermore, in Germany, the Romanian mafia is often behind contract fraud, which can be briefly described as follows.
A seasonal worker from Romania arrives on a short-term contract for minimum wage. After several months of work, the contract is terminated, and the worker officially becomes unemployed, qualifying for unemployment benefits and a package of benefits from the German welfare state.
However, as a rule, both the person and their contract exist only on paper, and all social benefits are taken by the organizers of the scheme, who belong to criminal groups.
So, further integration of Bulgaria and Romania into pan-European structures is rather bad news for Germany.
TIGHTENING OF MIGRATION POLICY
On January 29, 2025, the Bundestag voted in favor of a CDU/CSU resolution aimed at tightening immigration policy. It proposed establishing permanent controls at Germany's borders and introducing a "de facto entry ban" for people without valid entry documents, regardless of whether they seek protection.
The CDU/CSU base their demands on the violence in Aschaffenburg: on January 22, 2025, an Afghan asylum seeker diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia stabbed to death a small child and an adult who tried to intercede for him.
The vote led to protests across Germany, as the proposal was passed by the CDU/CSU with the help of the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Two days later, on January 31, the bill to "restrict the illegal influx of third-country nationals into Germany" failed in the Bundestag.
Under the new federal government, made up of representatives of the CDU/CSU and SPD, the Federal Ministry of the Interior has significantly strengthened border controls since May and has begun denying entry to people seeking protection.
As a result, thousands of people were denied entry into the country. In some cases, these people were even asylum seekers, which is technically contrary to German law.
However, in reality, the flow of refugees heading to Germany has thinned only slightly, if at all. As it turns out, the Christian Democrats' anti-immigration rhetoric was merely an election ploy aimed at siphoning votes from the Alternative for Germany (AfD) by playing into a popular agenda.
It worked: a significant portion of the electorate, which had previously turned away from the established political parties, voted for the CDU/CSU instead of the AfD.
However, as the CDU/CSU bloc leaders subsequently demonstrated convincingly during the first year of the new government coalition, “promising is not the same as marrying.”
AUTUMN OF BROKEN PROMISES
The first seven months of Friedrich Merz's chancellorship have ended, and the interim results of the head of the federal government's work have not been very impressive.
In fact, the only thing that is clearly credited to the Chancellor is that he has so far managed to keep the United States on Europe's side, avoiding the collapse of transatlantic cooperation and the North Atlantic Alliance.
However, Merz, with no experience in public administration in his political history, is not a great power strategist like Adenauer, Brandt, Kohl, or even, with certain reservations, Angela Merkel. He lacks experience in working with power and building alliances.
German political scientists agree that Merz consistently raises too much hope in society and then fails to deliver on his promises.
Thus, very little remains of the “autumn of reforms” that was hyped at the highest level and was intended to restart the German economy.
The closing of the Volkswagen plant in Dresden in December became the epitaph of the Federal Chancellor's PR project.
The German auto industry giant never managed to reap the benefits of the promised reforms and maintain production.
Given the AfD's expected success in the upcoming state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the Chancellor will have to face a number of unpleasant political challenges in the new year.
Among them is a further decline in both his personal ratings, which have now dropped to 23%, and the ratings of the coalition he leads.
***
Despite all the hardships and disappointments, Germany remains the financial and industrial engine of the EU. However, the ongoing recession, deindustrialization, and declining public trust in democratic institutions threaten Germany with serious social, economic, and political upheaval in 2026.
Of course, it's unlikely that disciplined citizens will resort to mass protests like the French "yellow vest" movement. However, growing public disillusionment could very well lead to the premature collapse of the ruling red-black coalition as early as 2026.
#5
With all those businesses going bankrupt it might appear to a young man that the best employment opportunity would be the Bundeswehr. Gotta wonder if that's by design.
Posted by: Abu Uluque ||
12/30/2025 13:53 Comments ||
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[Bee] ST. PAUL, MN — In response to growing allegations of fraud tied to Minnesota's Somali community, Governor Tim Walz announced he had awarded an $8 billion grant to a Somali company to find the perpetrators.
"I'm sparing no expense to find those responsible," Governor Walz announced. "That's why I'm consulting with a Somali private detective agency. They know when to run a mean pick-six."
"They also run a nifty daycare center," he added.
To date, approximately $18 billion has been lost to fraud in Minnesota through fake social service programs run by Somalis, some of whom may be in the country illegally. Walz hopes to get to the bottom of the scandal with a lucrative grant to the newly formed Osman Farah Private Eye Detective Agency for Finding Welfare Fraud
"Look at me. Look at me. I am the detective now," said Detective Osman Farah.
Democrats praised Walz for rising above politics to get to the bottom of the fraud case. "Well, I'm convinced," said Minnesota Congressional Representative Ilhan Omar. "Nothing to see here. As usual, America is the real villain."
Previously, Republicans questioned Walz's leadership throughout the Somali daycare fraud scandal, even going so far as to suggest he's involved. Now, however, they're certain he's just mentally handicapped and unable to run an elaborate money laundering scheme himself.
"We should probably have him arrested, but honestly, this is all so entertaining," House Speaker Mike Johnson said as he ate a bag of popcorn while watching the news. "Ha, they just found another billion. Hilarious."
At publishing time, Somali detectives announced they were close to cracking the case and just needed another $8 billion in funds to be sure.
Posted by: Frank G ||
12/30/2025 00:00 ||
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[1810 views]
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#3
Over the last 6+ years the B's joke articles have hit closer to the likely underlaying truth and have become more beliveable than the liberal socialist Democrap owned and controlled Media.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited by Kirill Semenov
[REGNUM] 2025 has become a year of bitter paradoxes and agonizing impasse for the Gaza Strip and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. However, the shaky de-escalation, unfairly called a "truce" or "ceasefire," leaves some hope for a fragile calm that could last for several more months.
The word "peace" in this case would sound too pompous and unrealistic. And trying to peer beyond the horizons of the first month of spring 2026 would be like reading tea leaves.
In 2025, Hamas once again stood firm, and Israel once again failed to achieve its goals. However, this resilience of the Palestinian resistance came at the cost of nearly 30,000 lives lost in Gaza by the Israeli army in 2025, as well as hunger, disease, and other suffering among the enclave's residents, which devalues Hamas's achievements.
TRUCE PAST AND PRESENT
The outgoing year was marked by two truces.
Clearly, without the January ceasefire, the October one would not have happened. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu needed further confirmation of the futility of attempts to end the Gaza war with a "resounding victory."
However, the failure to resolve the tasks set by Israel threatens to result in a new military campaign, despite its obvious senselessness and the fact that it is incomprehensible to most Israelis after the liberation of the last remaining captive citizens.
However, for now, Netanyahu is leaving the possibility of a military scenario open: the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) is establishing staging areas along the Yellow Line for a future offensive. An open zone hundreds of meters wide is being formed in the adjacent outer territory, where all buildings are being systematically destroyed, which also constitutes a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
This zone could allow the IDF to make a first deep push while avoiding losses if a decision is made to resume the war.
With diplomatic breakthroughs failing to materialise due to incessant bombing, political squabbles and winter storms, the prospect of renewed fighting seems very real.
Thus, the confrontation that began in 2023 had not been resolved by the end of 2025, entering a phase of unstable, bloody, and “frozen” pause, teetering on the brink of a full-scale resumption of war.
The formal ceasefire, which took effect on October 11, 2025, is violated daily: the IDF carries out almost daily bombing and artillery strikes, attempting to hunt Hamas commanders. Nearly 900 ceasefire violations have been recorded, resulting in the deaths of over 400 Palestinians, including 157 children, and the wounding of over 1,075.
This growing trend is confirmed by recent reports: on December 23, Israeli aircraft carried out strikes on the eastern Gaza Strip, Deir el-Balah, and Khan Yunis. On December 24–25, additional civilian casualties were recorded as a result of Israeli attacks, and apartment buildings were bombed in Rafah, among other places.
Israel also tried to alternate tactics of limited military pressure with provoking divisions within the Palestinian ranks, but apparently was ultimately forced to abandon its support for Palestinian groups operating against Hamas in Gaza.
Each of these groups saw a growing number of supporters of unification with Hamas, which eroded these factions from within. Some militants even helped Hamas organize the assassination of their leaders.
In particular, Yasser Abu Shabab, the leader of the largest pro-Israeli group, the Popular Forces, was killed in a Hamas ambush in this way, and the faction itself disintegrated.
At the same time, the humanitarian consequences of the war reached monstrous proportions by the end of the year.
Since October 2023, more than 70,000 Palestinians have been killed, not counting the bodies still recovered from the rubble and debris, and the number of injured has exceeded 171,000.
Despite the ceasefire, humanitarian aid continues to arrive intermittently. Israel is deliberately restricting its flow. To avoid criticism, the Israelis have slightly increased the number of cargoes allowed through, but it turns out that up to 60% of the trucks allowed through are carrying commercial goods, not life-saving aid.
The targeted blockade continues: at least 475 people have died of starvation, 165 of whom are children.
Meanwhile, Gaza remains in a state of medical collapse and the risk of epidemics: all hospitals have been destroyed. The shortage of medical supplies has reached 71%.
Winter storms and floods are exacerbating the situation. Floods have damaged hundreds of tents in overcrowded camps, and deaths from hypothermia have been recorded, including infants. Fifteen people died in the last days of December alone from the collapse of damaged buildings due to severe weather.
POLITICAL IMPASSE: THE ARCHITECTURE OF TRUMP'S PLAN AND THE STUMBLING BLOCKS
The year's political results also offer little cause for optimism. Trump's plan, despite its ambitions, found itself in a deep implementation crisis by the end of December 2025 and was effectively frozen before the start of the second phase.
The key provisions of this stage of the agreement—the disarmament of Hamas and the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops—remain unfulfilled and are the subject of fierce debate. The same applies to the third provision, the creation of the International Stabilization Force (ISF).
No one wants to participate in this project with an unclear mandate, much less disarm Hamas.
On the other hand, discussions about the participation of Indonesia, Turkey, and Egypt in the ISF are blocked by questions of command, rules of engagement, and Israel's position.
The UN Security Council, while adopting the relevant resolution, which calls for the formation of an ISF and an interim international administration, criticised it for its “vagueness” and the lack of a path to a two-state solution, which appears “further away than ever”.
In particular, Russian representatives stated that they did not vote against, but abstained only because they could not be more Arab than the Arabs themselves, who for some reason supported it.
Thus, the second phase of the plan (troop withdrawal, deployment of the ISF, creation of a temporary "Peace Council") has fallen into a logistical and political trap. The US role as mediator appears ambiguous: the Trump administration, having achieved a temporary lull, is demonstrating "flexibility" that prioritizes the deal, but is unable to move the process of resolving fundamental contradictions forward.
Israel and Hamas, for their part, approach 2026 with different sets of cards and are not ready to part with their trump cards.
HAMAS'S STRATEGIC RESILIENCE
By the end of 2025, the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) demonstrates impressive strategic resilience and adaptability, turning challenges into opportunities to strengthen its position.
Its resilience is the result of a well-thought-out model of “hard pragmatism,” which combines unconditional loyalty to ideological principles with flexible tactics, deep social roots, and the ability to undergo military-political regeneration.
Hamas has proven capable of skillfully combining tactical adaptability with intransigence on key principles such as the right to resistance and the pursuit of Palestinian unity.
This allows the movement to engage in negotiations, reaching temporary agreements (such as a ceasefire and prisoner exchange) without giving up its long-term goals, such as the liberation of Palestine from occupation.
Hamas consistently demonstrates this line, issuing policy documents that emphasize the national liberation struggle. However, they also express a willingness to embrace transitional political solutions, including the transfer of administrative control over Gaza to an independent Palestinian Authority unaffiliated with the Palestinian Authority, but in which Hamas will not participate.
Hamas is also prepared to make other concessions, but these should not lead to the dissolution of the organization that acts as the vanguard of the Palestinian resistance movement. For example, as a compromise, Hamas is prepared to transfer its heavy weapons to Egypt, so that this move could be presented as disarmament, in accordance with Trump's plan.
But these measures will not affect small arms, which will allow Hamas to remain a military organization.
Thus, the movement links the issue of disarmament to the achievement of a broad Palestinian consensus and the end of the occupation, demonstrating a willingness to discuss the status of heavy weapons while maintaining self-defense means to ensure internal stability.
Such Hamas initiatives are welcomed in Washington, but they put Tel Aviv in an awkward position, for which the only acceptable option is complete disarmament and the dissolution of the movement. However, Israel's refusal to accept compromise solutions is increasingly irritating Washington.
TIME TO RESTORE POTENTIAL
Moreover, Hamas effectively uses periods of reduced conflict intensity to restructure and build up its forces.
Israeli sources record that even in areas that the army considered "cleared," the movement successfully rebuilt its forces.
Experts estimate that it continued to swell its ranks even during the war. Hamas's numbers not only haven't declined, but have actually increased compared to October 7, 2023. According to movement representatives, Hamas could have up to 40,000 fighters by the end of 2025, up from 25,000 two years ago.
Since the ceasefire was launched in October 2025, the movement has been regrouping its disparate units and groups, merging them and reorganizing them into regular battalions and brigades.
The restoration and development of underground infrastructure is underway, including the continued construction of tunnels.
Should a multinational force be deployed and Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza, Hamas will be prepared to destroy these facilities. But as long as the risk of renewed IDF operations remains high, the Palestinian resistance will prepare to repel further attacks.
This also concerns replenishing arsenals, including establishing our own production of ammunition.
Hamas is turning time into a strategic asset for the movement, which is causing serious concern among its opponents.
As senior Republican Senator Lindsey Graham stated after meeting with Netanyahu in Jerusalem: “I got the impression that Hamas is not disarming, but rearming… ”
POLITICAL RECOGNITION
Hamas's political viability is ensured by its ability to conduct complex negotiations while maintaining key positions.
Regional partners Qatar, Türkiye and Egypt play a key role in facilitating dialogue.
Here, the unconditional success of the movement, whose roots go back to the Muslim Brotherhood*, was the transformation of Egypt from an ally of Israel in the fight against Hamas into, in fact, the new patron of the movement, despite the historical enmity between Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and the Muslim Brotherhood*.
And now the Egyptian side declares that it “considers demands for the disarmament of Hamas premature,” etc.
This is due to Hamas demonstrating a responsible approach, heeding constructive pressure from Cairo itself. This speaks to the organization's maturation and its ability to adapt to changing conditions, using them to its advantage.
Moreover, Hamas has de facto become a direct participant in the dialogue with the United States. The Trump administration personally brokered the peace plan, coordinating it equally with both sides—Israel and Hamas—and managed to persuade them to sign on to its first phase.
The discussion of Gaza's post-war structure, now involving Washington, by default makes Hamas a key player that cannot be ignored. This creates a strategic reality for the movement, where time is on its side, allowing it to maneuver and strengthen its position.
ISRAEL'S STRATEGIC FAILURE
By 2026, the results of the Gaza war for Israel had become a mosaic of massive strategic failure.
The promises of "total victory" made by Benjamin Netanyahu's government were not only not fulfilled, but also led to profound negative transformations that affected all areas: from the country's moral authority on the world stage to internal instability.
Despite the unprecedented use of force, the war's key stated objectives have not been achieved. Two years after its beginning, Hamas has not been destroyed, but has transformed into a successful, decentralized guerrilla movement with which negotiations are underway.
Israel, however, had the chance to reach a deal without resorting to a "confession parade." To do so, Netanyahu simply needed to show restraint during the first ceasefire in early 2025. At that time, he could have returned more Israeli prisoners alive.
However, the Israeli prime minister could not come to terms with the way Hamas celebrated its victory in Gaza with colorful military parades and presented the return of every prisoner as a propaganda show.
Netanyahu's nerves then gave out, and he was forced to return to a useless and bloody military campaign that was destroying the remnants of Israel's international authority.
The release of hostages by the end of 2025 is largely complete, but the fact that most of those released were the result of exchanges rather than military operations also works against Israel.
Hamas has also managed to return hundreds of its prisoners, including those serving life sentences, and can also report success.
A BLOW TO INTERNATIONAL REPUTATION AND LEGITIMACY
The war in Gaza has led to unprecedented moral and diplomatic isolation for Israel. The narrative of a victim state, protected by the memory of the Holocaust, has been shattered. Instead, it has been firmly entrenched in the global media as an "executioner": international courts are considering charges of genocide, and images of destruction and murdered children in Gaza have irreparably damaged the country's reputation.
Israel is increasingly seen as a pariah state, with even traditional allies distancing themselves from it.
A striking manifestation of this isolation was the “parade of recognitions” of the State of Palestine in September 2025.
Under pressure from public opinion and in opposition to Israeli policies, a number of key Western countries, including France, Belgium, Canada, Australia and the United Kingdom, have officially recognized Palestinian statehood.
This move, which brought the number of countries recognizing Palestine to 157 out of 193 UN members, was a clear diplomatic defeat for Tel Aviv and a signal of the collapse of its traditional foreign policy.
Meanwhile, American support, long unconditional, began to wane: the bipartisan consensus on Israel in the US disintegrated, and the AIPAC lobby group lost its former influence.
In fact, Washington was forced to put forward terms for a ceasefire acceptable to Hamas in order to stop geopolitical losses and prevent a complete break with its allies in the Persian Gulf after the incident with the Israeli bombing of Qatar.
It is now also clear that without American protection, Israel is incapable of independently determining the course of the campaign.
DEEPENING INTERNAL CRISIS AND SOCIAL DIVISION
On the other hand, for the Israeli prime minister, agreeing to Trump's plan, which he publicly presented as a forced concession to an ally, was a political salvation.
This allowed him to shift responsibility for military failures and the inability to defeat Hamas to external forces, under whose pressure he supposedly agreed to the peace plan. In this way, he avoided facing direct responsibility before his electorate for the failure of his "total victory" slogan.
Paradoxically, Netanyahu's coalition was threatened precisely by agreeing to this ceasefire, which far-right ministers viewed as capitulation. Thus, the Israeli prime minister's greatest achievement was not military success, but the temporary preservation of his power.
The war did not bring the promised unity to the country, but instead deepened existing divisions. Public opinion is polarized between demands to continue fighting "until the bitter end" and growing protests calling for an end to the bloodshed now that all hostages have been returned.
Netanyahu, seeking to retain power and avoid responsibility for the intelligence failures of October 7, 2023, shifted the blame to the military, leading to a conflict between the political and military leadership and paralysis in decision-making.
Despite the prime minister's surge in popularity on the back of his militaristic rhetoric, Israel's long-term political stability remains in question.
Even the military achievements of 2025, such as the weakening of Hezbollah and the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, are tactical and temporary. Moreover, in the end, neither Iran nor Hezbollah has been defeated, but has rebuilt its strength and is ready to continue the war.
These actions do not compensate for Israel's strategic failure: Hamas has not been eliminated, the Palestinian issue has returned to the center of the international agenda, and border security has not been ensured. The country finds itself in a situation of permanent low-intensity confrontation with no clear prospects for a political settlement.
The year ended with a "Pyrrhic victory" for Israel,
…that’s certainly one perspective. Not Israel’s, whose alternative to this victory is defeat followed by rivers of blood flowing from all the inhabitants of the land, not just the Jews, from the Mediterranean to the Jordan as a first step…
which paves the way for even more devastating conflicts in the future.
For Gaza and the rest of the Iran axis, yes, which lost entire levels of personnel and even more equipment, including serious damage to Iran’s nuclear bomb program. Not for Israel, which faces significantly weakened enemies while having stronger weapons and better unity on key issues than before 10/7.
The country faced a triple strategic defeat: military (the failure to defeat Hamas), moral (the collapse of its victimhood and its transformation into the "executioner" in the eyes of the world), and diplomatic (unprecedented isolation and a wave of Palestinian recognition).
Idiots believe the propaganda. Non-idiots noticed that it failed both logically and factually. And the cowardly who went along to get along with the Jew-haters have been shocked that President Trump is imposing a high price, both domestically and abroad, for what used to be a rewarded position.
***
The main outcome of 2025 for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict as a whole was the transition from a phase of high-intensity war to a phase of limited conflict, not yet fully “frozen,” which continues to claim lives daily, deepen the humanitarian catastrophe, and postpone any hopes for sustainable peace.
As long as Hamas exists in the Palestinian Territories there is no hope for even a temporary peace, let alone a sustainable one, because they remain determined to erase the Jewish state. After 10/7 even the Israelis on the left have come to understand this.
Any serious provocation could lead to a new round of violence in a matter of days, the consequences of which for the exhausted population of Gaza would be even more catastrophic, but are unlikely to bring Netanyahu the victory he hopes for.
The exhausted population of Gaza could have peace and freedom immediately, just by laying down their arms, turning over that last hostage corpse, and turning in the Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad leadership or escorting them to the Rafah border crossing. But they refuse to do any of that, and so by their choice the war continues.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
