[Conservative Tree House] The Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen reportedly hit Saudi Arabia’s east/west pipeline with drones. President Trump did not strike the Houthi’s. Despite knowing oil prices would jump, President Trump told Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon to approach the issue carefully.
Reuters, citing an Axios report based on two US officials, said Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump twice on Thursday and pressed for military action. Trump rejected the request, according to the report.
Why would President Trump ‘not’ strike back against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, knowing the drone attack on the Saudi pipeline would only worsen the oil issue? Well, you won’t read this anywhere else…. However, if Saudi Arabia shut down the east/west pipeline for a while (they just did), then the oil flowing to the Red Sea that ends up in Europe would be halted (it just was).
Think about it. All of a sudden Europe cannot get oil from Mohammed bin Salmon. So, how does that change the dynamic of President Trump’s desired leverage toward Europe in his approach to bringing Russian oil back into the market.
I hope everyone can see the dynamic. All of a sudden that Russian oil Europe hates so much, turns into dependency leverage against EU antagonisms against solving the Ukraine-Russia conflict. This is not happening accidentally.
Oil Price News – Saudi Aramco has canceled or delayed crude deliveries to European refiners after the shutdown of the kingdom’s East-West pipeline cut into one of its remaining routes around the Strait of Hormuz.
At least three European refiners have had late-September cargoes canceled or pushed as far out as November, according to market sources cited by Argus. Two more expect notices covering September supplies.
The 7-million-bpd East-West pipeline has been offline since a September 10 attack. The pipeline carries crude from eastern Saudi oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, bypassing Hormuz.
One market source told Argus that every Saudi cargo scheduled for the final 10 days of September could be at risk. The same source estimated that Yanbu had roughly five days of crude inventories remaining. Argus could not independently confirm that estimate, and Aramco declined to comment.
In August, Bloomberg had reported that Aramco would supply full contractual crude volumes to at least three European refiners for September.
But no Saudi crude has departed Yanbu since September 11, according to Vortexa data cited by Argus. (read more)
Essentially, the Houthi “attack” on the Saudi pipeline just shut down oil going to Europe.
Europe needs oil. This is not an optional dynamic.
Russia has the oil that Europe now desperately needs.
Suddenly, the geopolitical dynamic has shifted, as an outcome of the economic/energy dynamic shifting, at a very opportune time for President Trump to hold optimal leverage to get Europe to reconsider their opposition to a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire.
If there is a silver lining for the global LNG market, it's that the slump in Asian demand is freeing up cargoes for Europe, which is battling to ensure sufficient natural gas storage ahead of the northern winter.
Natural gas inventories in the European Union are around 68% full, which is about 16 percentage points below the five-year average.
Europe is starting to draw more LNG cargoes, with Kpler estimating September imports will rise to 7.98 million tons, the most since May and up from 7.55 million in August.
The upward trend is forecast to continue, with Kpler estimating October arrivals at 10.53 million tons and November at 10.62 million, which are levels largely in line with the same months in 2025.
The data show Asia is once again forgoing cargoes, which allows Europe to buy more LNG, albeit at a significant price premium.
The ongoing loss of Qatar's LNG because of the war between the United States and Iran and the resulting conflict over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has tightened the market.
Prior to the start of the war on February 28, Qatar supplied nearly 20% of global LNG and vied with Australia as the second-biggest shipper behind the United States.
#3
I may be naïve or geographically challenged, but other than the damaged pipeline(hit by Iraqi based forces) what is stopping oil tankers from going north through the Suez canal to reach Europe through the Mediterranean?
It would seem that mostly Asian deliveries would be delayed by blockade of the southern entrance/egress through the Red Sea. Perhaps this would increase leverage on China to not support Iranian interests, although there may be increased risk that China would become more dependent on Russian oil and encourage Sino-Russian cooperation?
**Oil tankers often avoid the Suez Canal due to vessel size limitations, high transit costs, and regional security risks.**
* **Size Constraints**: The Suez Canal cannot accommodate fully laden **VLCCs** (Very Large Crude Carriers) or **ULCCs** (Ultra Large Crude Carriers) because these massive ships sit too deep in the water. While **Suezmax** tankers can transit, they carry significantly less cargo than VLCCs, reducing shipping efficiency.
* **Economic Factors**: Transit fees are substantial (e.g., ~$465,000 per typical tanker), and when oil prices are low, shippers may find it cheaper to bypass the canal and take the longer route around the **Cape of Good Hope**.
* **Security Risks**: Recent **Houthi attacks** in the **Red Sea** and **Bab al-Mandeb** have made the canal route dangerous. Many shipowners prefer the longer but safer route around Africa to avoid potential damage or seizure, even though this adds weeks to delivery times.
This is simply a joint Canada/Europe response to the geopolitical realignment currently underway by U.S. President Donald Trump.
At the core of the CA/EU association is the insufferable leftist mindset. A pontificating pretense that elites and globalists should determine the outcomes and values for the rest of the world.
Together both Europe and Canada convey a mindset and worldview that organizes fabricated problems to keep control of their populations. It’s a corporatist structure of modern Fascism where instead of govt telling the corporations what to do, the World Economic Forum of multinationals tell the governments what to do. It’s a constructed social and economic model where Western bankers are in charge of the proles beneath them.
#3
Given EU's Open Borders problems will likely be adopted Canada. Plus joining the EU, will allow the EU to temporarily bypass certain trade restrictions. Trade issues the US has with the EU & CCP by using Canada as a backdoor.
That's gonna be one heck of US Border Wall to put up and enforce.
#11
ref 9 above - suddenly not quite a mere thought exercise for staff officers somewhere in the NORTHCOM Headquarters as they dust off the NOFORN stamp and add NOCAN as a new acronym?
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