Warning: Undefined array key "rbname" in /data/rantburg.com/www/rantburg/pgrecentorg.php on line 14
Hello !
Recent Appearances... Rantburg

Arabia
Media reports preparations for ground operation against Houthis in Yemen
2025-04-07
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] Opponents of the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) are preparing a ground military operation that could be supported by Saudi Arabia and the United States.
Not by American troops, one hopes.
This was reported on April 6 by the American television channel CNN, citing sources.
CNN? Quite possibly there is no need for the Yemenis to worry about invasion, though continued air raids appear a sure thing.
Such a military operation could begin from the south and east, as well as along the coastline, and could be supported by Saudi and US naval forces, they said.

"Whether such an operation is feasible remains unclear, as the past decade has shown mixed results, with successes in some areas and failures in others," said Ahmed Nagy, a leading analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG).

It is not yet clear whether forces loyal to Yemen's recognized government will be able to fight the Houthis, said Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

He specified that the internationally recognized government based in Aden, southern Yemen, is supported in the fight against the Houthis primarily by the UAE, which could provide “quiet support” in the event of a ground operation.

As reported by Regnum News Agency, the US Army launched a large-scale operation against the Houthis in Yemen on March 15, during which strikes were carried out on the western regions of the country. Later, on March 22, during a missile strike by US aircraft on the Hodeidah International Airport in western Yemen, the Houthi naval commander Mansour al-Saadi was wounded. In addition, at least seven more members of Ansar Allah were injured.

On April 4, the Houthis launched another attack on the US aircraft carrier Harry Truman and other US Navy ships in the Red Sea. Later, on April 6, Ansar Allah again attacked the Harry Truman and its escort ships.
That is to say, the Houthis launched things in the general direction of the sea, piously trusting Allah to effect an intersection with the American ships, were that indeed his will. As it turned out — as always — it was not.

Link


Home Front: Politix
Eric Trager reportedly tapped for Mideast slot on Trump’s National Security Council
2025-01-09
[IsraelTimes] Eric Trager, a Republican staffer on the Senate Armed Services Committee, will reportedly become the next White House National Security Council senior director for the Middle East and North Africa.

Trager, who previously worked at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, will replace Brett McGurk, who played a massive role in crafting outgoing US President Joe Biden’s Mideast policy, Jewish Insider reports.
A "Total Success"...
Trager has staked out hawkish foreign policy positions regarding the Middle East with his research focusing on Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Related:
Eric Trager 09/19/2013 Muslim Brotherhood Official, Former Clinton Foundation Employee Arrested

Eric Trager 08/16/2013 Totten interview: The Truth About Egypt
Eric Trager 07/03/2013 Morsi, Brøderbünd prepare 'defense' force
Link


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Defanged but still dangerous, Hezbollah will try to regain its bite, experts predict
2025-01-08
[IsraelTimes] Focused for now on reconstructing Lebanon and rebuilding support, the terror group will also seek to reconstitute its arsenal in hopes of fighting Israel another day

As a fragile 60-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah approaches its end, the expectation that the prevailing calm along the Lebanese border will continue and transform into a long-term detente is suddenly being challenged by tough talk from both sides.
It’s a hudna — that’s to be expected.
In Israel, officials are concerned that the terror group is not pulling out of southern Leb
...The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. Only one of those statements is an exaggeration....
, and that the Lebanese Armed Forces, or LAF, which is supposed to move in, is moving too slowly to take over control of the area by the January 26 deadline. On Sunday, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that the Israel Defense Forces could be "forced to act" in response, and some in the military are apparently preparing for the possibility that the army could remain deployed north of the border beyond the 60-day deadline.

In the meantime, the IDF is continuing to carry out strikes against Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure in south Lebanon, accusing Hezbollah of repeatedly violated the terms of the agreement.

On the Hezbollah side, the Iran-backed group’s new leader Naim Qassem
... the Grand Vizier of the Hezbullies...
 threatened in a Saturday speech that its "patience may run out" with Israeli behavior even before the end of the 60-day withdrawal period.

The comments have sparked worries that the deal could fall apart sooner rather than later, sending US special envoy Amos Hochstein back to Beirut in a bid to get the deal back on track.

But even if Qassem wanted to make good on his threat, it remains unclear what kind of actions the Shiite terror group would be able to undertake once its "patience" runs out, with its leadership largely decapitated and its rocket and missile stock reportedly reduced by at least 80%.

"Hezbollah is in an extremely unenviable position," Hezbollah expert Matthew Levitt told The Times of Israel by phone recently. "It’s on life support right now."

"The Axis of Resistance® stood [on] a three-legged stool of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. Two of those legs don’t exist anymore," said Levitt, who is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former FBI counterterrorism expert.

However,
ars longa, vita brevis...
 there are multiple indications that the terror group has only been temporarily deterred, and could resume fighting if it is allowed to reconstitute its arsenal. The process will also involve rebuilding its base in Lebanon by helping stabilize and reconstruct the country after bringing about widespread destruction and turmoil at the service of a foreign entity, angering many Lebanese.

In a December 14 speech, Qassem indicated that the group’s agenda moving forward was to focus on domestic Lebanese issues, namely "the implementation of the agreement south of the Litani River, reconstruction, the election of a head of state on January 9, and positive dialogue on the problematic issues."

The political crisis has been particularly daunting. The country has been without a president for over two years, chiefly due to Hezbollah’s political arm insisting on elevating its candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, though he lacks the support of other political parties.

"Hezbollah understands that the country is already quite angry and quite worried, especially with the fall of the [neighboring] Assad regime. There is now a regime in Syria that hates Hezbollah. Hezbollah doesn’t want another civil war. It doesn’t have the support that it had before," Levitt said. "It will fight to protect its position."

While the ceasefire agreement — backed by international guarantors — may keep Hezbollah from regrouping in areas south of the Litani River, from which it poses the most direct threat to Israel, there is no reason to think the terror group will lay down its weapons or desist from regrouping militarily anywhere else in the country; renouncing its arsenal would imply losing clout and power, and ultimately its raison d’être.

And despite Western backing and funding, Lebanon’s military has yet to actively confront the terror group or seize its weapons as far as is known.

Earlier this month, four sources briefed on updated US intelligence told Rooters that the Iran-backed Lebanese terror group will likely try to rebuild its arms and forces, allowing it to once again pose a long-term threat to Israel.

"If the LAF goes after Hezbollah in a way that makes it feel threatened, then Hezbollah will open fire against them," David Daoud, a Lebanon expert at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank. "But there has not been a single move against them. So Hezbollah will try and get what it wants quietly, through political means. The resistance prefers the path of least resistance."

THE DANGER FOR ISRAEL HAS NOT SUBSIDED
Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah began in earnest in mid-September, when thousands of the group’s pagers and walkie-talkies booby-trapped by Israel went kaboom!.

The operation followed nearly a year of almost-daily rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel starting on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah, unprovoked, began firing at Israel in support of fellow Iran-backed terror group Hamas
..a regional Iranian catspaw,...
, which a day earlier had stormed southern Israel to kill some 1,200 people and take 251 hostages, starting the war in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
But while the autumn 2024 offensive saw Israel take out much of the group’s rocket arsenal and command and control structure, it has not been completely defanged.

"In terms of the threat to Israel, [Hezbollah] has become more of a traditional terrorist organization," said Levitt. "They can still do a cross-border raid. They will try to move material south of the demarcation line. At some point in the not-too-distant future, they can still shoot a rocket. They can certainly carry out attacks abroad."

"Those are very dangerous things that are not to be minimized. But they are nothing like the full-scale rocket and missile threat that Hezbollah posed before," he added.

Consequently, the IDF will need to remain vigilant even after the 60-day truce during which it is allowed to remain on Lebanese territory, and to continue targeting Hezbollah operatives violating the late November ceasefire agreement.

"Israel is not going to be expected to sit back and watch as enemies begin to prepare over time to be able to strike at Israeli civilians again," Levitt said.

Israel also does not have the luxury of complacency based on the fact that the new Syrian regime helmed by rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa is hostile to Hezbollah and Iran.

Sharaa and his government are currently bent on gaining international legitimacy, but the new regime’s overstretched security forces will need time to extend their control over the whole of Syria’s territory. In the meantime, Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
is expected to exploit the power vacuum in parts of the country to attempt to smuggle weapons to its Lebanese proxy, according to Mike Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and an expert on Iran-backed militias

"Although the collapse of Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
Leveler of Latakia...
’s regime is certainly encouraging, this does not mean its former patron Iran will simply give up on using Syria as a corridor for reconstituting Hezbollah next door in Lebanon," Knights wrote in a recent analysis. "Quite the opposite: Iranian arms smuggling has historically thrived in collapsed or weak state environments."

"As Syria presumably reopens post-Assad, it will see an influx of people, vehicles, money, humanitarian aid, reconstruction supplies, and consumer goods, much of it via truck transport from neighboring states. Iran could easily use this influx to reconstitute both Hezbollah and its proxy factions in Syria," Knights wrote.

HEZBOLLAH’S DOMESTIC BASE STILL PERSISTS, ALBEIT ERODED
While many Lebanese have raised their voice against Hezbollah’s military adventures and for dragging the country into a destructive war, popular support for the terror group has not completely eroded, particularly among Shiites, who make up about a third of the country’s population of over 5 million.

An Arab Barometer survey conducted between February and April 2024 found that 85% of Lebanon’s Shiites have "quite a bit or a great deal of trust in Hezbollah," while only nine percent of Sunnis and six percent of Christians expressed the same sentiment.

Scenes of Lebanese waving Hezbollah flags in jubilation after the ceasefire suggest that base may still be solid.

"Hezbollah is at the weakest it’s ever been, but finishing it off requires a ’final squeeze’ from within Lebanon — and that’s not going to happen," said Daoud, pointing to images of displaced Shiites returning to their homes in Hezbollah strongholds hailing the "resistance" and its slain leader His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
...The late, lamented satrap of the Medes and the Persians in Leb...>
"They still have a bit of breathing room in which they can learn to maneuver," he added.

One of the tools with which Hezbollah has managed to attract and maintain a vast base among Shiites is through financial assistance. While the terror group’s finances were hard hit in the war — branches of its bank al-Qard al-Hassan were targeted in IDF Arclight airstrike
...KABOOM!...
s — Hezbollah still has liquidity at its disposal.

In early December, Qassem said the terror group had paid more than $50 million in cash to families affected by the war, almost all of them Shiites, giving out $300 and $400 per person. He said the group planned to pay out more than $77 million in total, plus lump sums between $4,000 and $8,000 to those whose primary homes were destroyed.

The payments would be financed mainly by Iran, he added.
Can Iran afford it?
In the upcoming reconstruction phase, Hezbollah will also be able to draw from foreign contributions made to Lebanon’s state coffers, and will receive donations from the Shiite Lebanese diaspora abroad, Daoud predicted.

In addition, Hezbollah will continue to play a prominent role in Lebanese politics as a legitimate political party. It still sits in the government and still has 15 members of parliament (13 from its ranks and two independent Hezbollah supporters), and maintains alliances with other political factions.

In 2022, the last time Lebanon held an election, Hezbollah and pro-Hezbollah independents received over 356,000 votes, more than any other party.

"Other political forces cannot just tell a party that got that many votes, from the sect that is Lebanon’s largest and fastest growing, that ’we don’t want to listen to you,'" Daoud said.

While Hezbollah attempts to repair its reputation and mend ties with its domestic allies, Israel will need to stay vigilant, watching the group’s movements and preventing any attempt at reconstituting its military capabilities, the expert said.

"Lebanon is giving them time to rest and relax. And that’s that’s the scary part. The more time they have, the more they can rearm and go back to where we were," Daoud said. "So what Israel should do is not let them rest and relax."
See? Hudna.
Link


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Can Syria’s dwindling Christian community survive under jihadi rebel rule?
2024-12-15
[IsraelTimes] Once loyal to the regime, Syrian Christians have ostensibly joined the national celebration after the ouster of Bashar al-Assad. But can they trust the new Islamist rulers’ pledges?

The lightning power grab by the Sunni jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Nusra, before that it was called something else
...al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, from which sprang the Islamic State...
 (HTS) in Syria has raised concerns about the fate of the Christian minority in the country.

Numbering 1.5 million before the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, Christians made up about 10 percent of the Syrian population. Within the span of a decade, their numbers dwindled dramatically, and in 2022, there were only 300,000 left, or about 2% of the current population of Syria, according to a report by the US-based NGO "Aid to Church in Need."

Traditionally wealthier and more educated than the average Syrian population, Christians emigrated en masse to escape persecution by ISIS, but also to flee Syria’s spiraling economic situation.

The new HTS leaders have repeatedly reassured Syrians and the international community that it will protect all minorities — which also include Shiites, Alawites, Druze, Kurds and others — and the new Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir has urged millions of Syrian refugees abroad to return home, vowing "the rights of all people and all sects in Syria" will be guaranteed.

However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
 it remains to be seen whether the country will once again become a tolerant, pluralistic place as its new leaders claim. Concern for the fate of Syria’s millennia-long Christian presence has been recently expressed by the Washington DC-based NGO In Defense of Christians.

In a statement issued after the rebels’ capture of Aleppo two weeks ago, IDC quoted sources in Aleppo saying that Christians were "living in fear" and had been the "target of widespread crime and vandalism."

However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
 Christian residents of Aleppo were recently interviewed by the Center for Peace Communications, a New York nonprofit, on the occasion of the Festival of Saint Barbara, a celebration observed by Middle East Christians. They said that they were afraid for the first two or three days after the HTS takeover, but now feel they do not have any reason to be concerned, and churches are operating normally.

During the 13 years of the civil war, Christians largely remained loyal to the Assad regime, which portrayed itself as a secular defender of religious minorities. Christians didn’t actively take action to support the regime, such as organizing armed militias to defend it, said Syrian analyst Hazem Alghabra, a former Senior Advisor to the US Department of State who runs a Washington DC-based Middle East security consultancy.

"For the most part, [Christians] were afraid. They were concerned about the Islamist elements of the Syrian uprising — and that is hard to ignore. But also, they repeated the regime messaging that anybody who stood up against the regime was an Islamist terrorist," Damascus-born Alghabra told The Times of Israel. He noted that describing them as regime supporters today, after the ousting of Bashir al-Assad, would "amount to an insult."

REBELS RETURN CONFISCATED CHRISTIAN PROPERTY
Like most other Syrians, Christians appeared elated at the fall of the brutal dictatorship. Bahjat Karakach, a Franciscan friar who serves as Aleppo’s Latin-rite parish priest, told Vatican News this week that Christians had been "completely exhausted by living under the regime" due to the economic hardships.

The holy man also noted that over the past years, rebels had shown increased tolerance to Christians, and returned confiscated property. In the Idlib area, controlled by HTS for the past decade, Christians had reportedly been allowed to continue practicing their faith.

Archbishop Hanna Jallouf, Apostolic Vicar of Aleppo, told Vatican News that he had met with HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, who had given him "assurances that Christians and their possessions will not be touched, and that [the murderous Moslems] will meet all our legitimate requests."

However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
 in 2015, al-Sharaa, back then known only by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Julani, said in a prescient interview with Al Jazeera that once the group took control of all of Syria, it would impose shari’a law over the country.

Christians, as "people of the book," would enjoy a privileged status and be allowed to practice their faith, the jihadi leader said, but per Islamic law, they would be obligated to pay the per capita jizya tax — even though HTS at the time was not imposing it in the areas it controlled.

At the time, al-Julani said that a different fate awaited other religious minorities in Syria, such as Alawites and Druze, whose doctrines originated from Islam centuries ago but then departed from Moslem Orthodoxy. Those two groups would have to "correct their doctrinal mistakes and embrace Islam," Julani said.

In 2013, two years prior to the interview, the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s Syrian branch that al-Julani led at the time, kidnapped 13 nuns amid fighting with regime forces. They were freed three months later after Qatar
...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates. Home of nutbag holy manYusuf al-Qaradawi...
 agreed to pay the kidnappers $16 million.

Today, al-Julani appears to eschew those fundamentalist positions. He renounced ties to al-Qaeda in 2016 and now depicts himself as a champion of pluralism and tolerance.

In recent days, the insurgency leader dropped his nom de guerre and began referring to him by his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa. He shed his garb as a hardline Islamist guerrilla and put on suits for press interviews, talking of building state institutions and decentralizing power to reflect Syria’s diversity.

SALVATION IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER?
The transitional government appointed on Tuesday only includes members from the HTS administration of Idlib, known as the "Salvation Government," and no representatives from secular rebel factions or religious groups other than Sunni Moslems.

"The concerns are not exclusive to Christians. They are also shared by the average moderate Sunni population," Alghabra told The Times of Israel. "If we end up with a Taliban
...Arabic for students...
-style governance in Syria, then Christians will be targeted first, but down the line, moderate Sunnis will be targeted as well."

HTS’s experience ruling the Idlib area over the past years could provide an indicator for its future behavior governing the country.

Aaron Zelin, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said in a recent interview with La Belle France 24 that HTS’s rule in Idlib was "an authoritarian governance model, not quite as bad as the totalitarianism of the Assad regime. It wasn’t a liberal democracy by any stretch of the imagination." But the Islamist group had apparently abandoned any aspirations for "global jihad," Zelin noted.

In a recent article, Zelin said that Christians in those areas were treated as second-class citizens, as they were not represented in the local government, the General Shura Council, and their interests were dealt with by a "Directorate of Minority Affairs."

La Belle France24 journalist Wassim Nasr visited Idlib in 2023 and reported that the few hundred Christians who remained in the region were allowed to hold masses, but not to display crosses or ring church bells.

Syrian analyst Alghabra remained optimistic that once HTS becomes the internationally recognized government of Syria, it will have to make compromises and show more openness.

"In Idlib, HTS did not have to deal with the concerns of the international community," Alghabra said. "It will need technical support, aid, fuel, a lot of things. So the international community’s approach will need to be transactional. HTS will have to allow every religious group to practice unobstructedly in order to get outside help."

[X]
Link


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Lebanon’s Shiites increasingly reject role of scapegoat in Hezbollah’s war on Israel
2024-11-27
[IsraelTimes] Over 1.4 million Lebanese from Hezbollah’s support base have fled their homes. And while the terror group attempts to retain their loyalty, some are calling for its demise

Ahmad Yassine, a Lebanese Shiite commentator with a large following on the social media platform X, wrote last Thursday that Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassem
... the Grand Vizier of the Hezbullies...
, signaled the group’s capitulation as a military force in his latest address last week.

"It was clear to anyone who heard the pre-recorded speech that it was a declaration of complete surrender," Yassine wrote. "Hezbollah has fallen, all it has to do now is announce the date of the funeral," he wrote.

While Yassine’s remarks accord with the group’s heavily diminished military capabilities and decimated leadership, not everyone within Hezbollah’s Shiite support base shares his conclusion — despite bearing the brunt of Israel’s ongoing escalation against the Iran-backed organization.

Over 1.4 million people — nearly a quarter of Leb
...an Iranian satrapy until recently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else? It is the home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...
’s population — have fled their homes since Hezbollah initiated hostilities against Israel on October 8, 2023, according to recent figures published by the UN quoting Lebanese government data.

The overwhelming majority of those currently displaced fled after Israel escalated strikes two months ago, targeting largely Shiite Hezbollah strongholds across southern Lebanon, the eastern Beqaa Valley, and Beirut’s Dahiyeh district. In the first 11 months of the conflict that Hezbollah instigated, approximately 110,000 Lebanese had evacuated.

Lebanese citizens fleeing southern villages amid Israeli Moslem — has stressed the importance of maintaining "civil peace," and even Hezbollah’s rivals, including the Christian Lebanese Forces
A Christian political party founded by Bashir Gemayel, who was then bumped off when he was elected president of Leb...
 party, have largely complied by moderating their political rhetoric and urging supporters not to stoke tensions, the danger on the ground remains.

Residents recently told Rooters that conflict often centers around schools that have welcomed displaced people. Hezbollah-allied parties are said to have seized control of who comes and goes and what enters some of those institutions.

Sectarian tensions have resurfaced regularly in recent years, and some analysts have already warned of a possible outbreak of a new civil war.

Hezbollah expert Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, recently told The Times of Israel that as the terror group loses ground on the battlefield, it may resort to using guns to maintain its grip over Lebanon.

Some pundits have warned that a marginalization of Hezbollah from the Lebanese political scene after it is defanged militarily could have strong repercussions on Hezbollah’s Shiite support base.

"The community is traumatized, dislocated, and heavily armed, without a leader capable of controlling the widespread resentment and humiliation Shiites must feel as the only community targeted by Israel," wrote Michael Young, a Beirut-based Lebanon expert for the Carnegie Endowment, in a recent commentary.

"Hezbollah will spread a narrative that they [Lebanese politicians] exploited the Israeli onslaught to once again marginalize Shiites, and this message will allow Hezbollah to absorb and redirect internally the anger many in the community must feel for having lost everything," he added.

GROWING DISCONTENT WITH HEZBOLLAH AMONG SOME SHIITES
Hezbollah has positioned itself as the defender of Shiites, capitalizing on the community’s anger and vulnerability to maintain loyalty.

However,
death is not the end. There remains the litigation over the estate...
 prominent voices within the Shiite community are challenging the terror group’s authority, echoing the criticism of several Lebanese Christian leaders.

Prominent Lebanese Shia holy man Ali al-Amin, a longstanding thorn in the side of Hezbollah, has consistently called for the terror group to disarm and hand control to the Lebanese state.

In a recent interview with the Saudi al-Arabiya channel, al-Amin argued that Hezbollah is a permanent threat to stability, and its actions have endangered Lebanon without benefiting Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
In a video address on November 14 published on his website, the holy man praised Lebanon as a "model of coexistence based on openness and tolerance among the various religious groups," and condemned "those who took advantage of the weakness of the Lebanese state to establish mini-states."

"As long as there are weapons outside the control of the state, there will always be unrest," he said.
Link


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Hezbollah’s military is weakened, but its civil branches are deeply embedded in Lebanon
2024-10-31
[IsraelTimes] Terror group likely to feel pinch after strikes on banking arm, but its network of charities is too entrenched in Lebanon’s Shiite community to be extracted easily, expert says

Last week, Israel’s military launched a series of Arclight airstrike
...KABOOM!...
s across Leb
...an Iranian satrapy until recently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else? It is the home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...
 targeting branches of al-Qard al-Hassan, an unlicensed credit association considered to be Hezbollah’s bank.

The sorties marked a shift from strikes against military objectives alone to targeting infrastructure ostensibly in the civilian realm, underlining the challenges posed by the terror group’s deep integration in Lebanese society.

Due to its networks of welfare organizations, clinics, and extensive patronage system among Shiites, extricating Hezbollah from Lebanon’s civil fabric could prove a more complicated and daunting task than destroying the Iran-backed group’s military capabilities.

The Hezbollah that existed before the launch of the ground offensive no longer exists, "but it still is dangerous and it’s not going to disappear," Hezbollah expert Matthew Levitt told The Times of Israel in a recent phone conversation.

"Hezbollah really is a movement. It’s not just a terrorist organization, or a militia, or a political party. It’s also deeply involved in social and religious activities," said Levitt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former FBI counterterrorism expert.

Hezbollah’s military capabilities are weakened and ostensibly crumbling. Last week, the IDF said it had killed over 2,000 members of the Iran-backed group since October 2023, including many of its commanders, and destroyed about 70-80% of the rockets it possessed before the war. It also said it defeated Hezbollah’s forces in every area where its troops operated in southern Lebanon.

And while the terror group recently appointed a new leader, Naim Qassem
... the Grand Vizier of the Hezbullies...
, to replace its slain Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
...The late, lamented satrap of the Medes and the Persians in Leb...>
, it is not clear who is leading the terror groups’ military strategy on the ground.

However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
 "much of Hezbollah’s social welfare infrastructure remains intact, because the IDF is targeting its weapons caches and command and control centers. They are not targeting Hezbollah-run medical clinics and welfare programs," Levitt said.

The Hezbollah expert described the terror group’s wide range of social activities as a "shadow governance," providing critical services to a country long on the brink of financial and political collapse, plagued by perennial corruption and sectarian strife. This has created a "shadow constituency" dependent on its assistance, Levitt said.

"Hezbollah today has the best of both worlds — it is part of the Lebanese state, with members holding cabinet positions and seats in parliament, but remains an independent group that operates apart from the state," Levitt wrote in a recent article for the Washington Institute. Thus, "it avoids the accountability that typically comes with holding elected office."

HEZBOLLAH’S VAST NETWORK OF CHARITIES
The financial group al-Qard al-Hassan, or AQAH, was founded by Hezbollah in 1983, one year after the terror group’s establishment, to provide interest-free loans in line with Islamic principles. Over the years, AQAH grew into a major financial institution with branches throughout Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon.

The US blacklisted AQAH in 2007, saying Hezbollah uses it as a cover to manage the group’s financial activities and gain access to the international financial system.

However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
 Hezbollah’s civilian infrastructure extends far beyond, constituting a system of patronage that fills the gaps left by the inefficient Lebanese government and strengthens its clout over the country’s Shiite community of some 2 million, effectively creating a Shiite "mini-state."

It includes a network of medical centers known as the Islamic Health Organization, which provides healthcare services for free or at a reduced cost to Shiites, while also treating maimed Hezbollah fighters, according to the Israeli Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.

In 2021, Hezbollah also launched the al-Sajjad supermarket chain, named after a revered figure in Shiite Islam. These supermarkets sell products (often of Iranian, Syrian or Iraqi origin) at significantly reduced prices for customers who present Hezbollah-issued cards.

Additionally, Hezbollah controls a chain of gas stations, the Amana Petroleum Company, which sells Iranian fuel at discounted rates, sometimes in defiance of the Lebanese government. It has been under US sanctions since 2020.

Hezbollah’s construction arm, Jihad al-Bina, was instrumental in rebuilding areas destroyed in the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Today, the foundation, established in 1988, manages various large-scale projects in civil engineering, agriculture, and industry, and runs vocational training centers, according to the Meir Amit Center.

On the propaganda front, Hezbollah runs its own TV channel, al-Manar, and various educational programs, including a youth group known as the Mahdi Scouts, used to indoctrinate young Shiites, according to the IDF.

The terror group also claims to be involved in environmental sustainability. It operates Green Without Borders, a nonprofit, which claims to manage reforestation projects in southern Lebanon. According to Israel, the group actually provides cover to Hezbollah positions; it was sanctioned by the US for alleged terror activities last year.

HEZBOLLAH’S FINANCIAL STRUGGLES
Last week, the IDF revealed that it had located a Hezbollah bunker under a Beirut hospital. Inside, the army said, was more than $500 million in gold and cash being stored by the terror group.

Despite its fortune, though, Hezbollah is reportedly undergoing a liquidity crisis, with the IDF’s airstrikes on branches of AQAH likely adding to the growing financial strain on the Iranian proxy.

Lebanese and foreign sources cited in a recent Voice of America report claimed Hezbollah was running out of cash and unable to pay its members. Its access to Lebanon’s formal banking system is also reportedly curtailed, as the country’s wealthiest bankers have fled abroad, fearing they could be targeted next by Israel for helping Hezbollah, according to VOA.

Until recently, the terror group was awash in cash, thanks to Iranian money transfers and its own illicit activities — chief among them its vast international drug smuggling network, according to experts. Hezbollah used that liquidity to keep its Shiite constituents happy, handing out monthly stipends in stable foreign currency.

A Shiite woman who recently evacuated from south Lebanon to Beirut told The Guardian that the group had doled out monthly cash payments of $200, as well as food parcels, praising them for "taking incredible care" of her family.

It is not clear how long Hezbollah will be able to continue disbursing those payments. The social welfare network also faces a labor shortage, as many of Hezbollah’s members whose day jobs were in its charities have been called up to fight or are incapacitated due to injuries sustained in pager and walkie-talkie explosions in September.

Furthermore, the displacement of over a million people from Shiite-majority areas in southern Lebanon and elsewhere has put additional pressure on the informal welfare system.

"This is going to be another significant layer of demands at a time of diminishing resources and competing demands for those resources," Levitt said.

WILL HEZBOLLAH TURN ITS WEAPONS AGAINST THE LEBANESE?
As Israel works to dismantle Hezbollah’s military and financial capabilities, the terror group may resort to using guns instead of butter to maintain its grip over Lebanon, Levitt warned. The group has a long history of using violence to suppress its critics.

With Iran’s backing, the terror group is likely to attempt to rearm and refill its coffers at the earliest opportunity. It remains unclear whether the international community would be able to step in and keep Tehran’s influence from infiltrating Lebanon, and whether the Lebanese Armed Forces would be capable of reasserting illusory sovereignty and a state monopoly over the legitimate use of force, Levitt said.

"Hezbollah will fight hard to prevent it," he predicted, "and it will still have the means to do so even after Israel removes a significant proportion of its strategic threat."
Link


Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Abbas treads tightrope as PA cracks down on terror groups in the West Bank
2024-10-27
[IsraelTimes] Campaign in Tubas shows authority’s resolve to disprove its many skeptics, but represents ‘low-hanging fruit’ unlikely to loosen Hamas, PIJ grip on West Bank’s north, says analyst

In the West Bank city of Tubas, the Paleostinian Authority has been rounding up terror operatives who are spoiling for a fight with Israel and challenging its own rule, seeking to show it can help shape the future for Paleostinians after the war in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
PA President the ineffectual Mahmoud Abbas
...aka Abu Mazen, a graduate of the prestigious unaccredited Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow with a doctorate in Holocaust Denial. While no Yasser Arafat, he has his own brand of evil, just a little more lowercase....>
 has poured forces into Tubas in an avowed push to quash lawlessness and deny Israel pretexts to raid the city.

His adversaries, Hamas
..not a terrorist organization, even though it kidnaps people, holds hostages, and tries to negotiate by executing them,...
 and Paleostinian Islamic Jihad
...created after many members of the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood decided the organization was becoming too moderate. Operations were conducted out of Egypt until 1981 when the group was exiled after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat. They worked out of Gaza until they were exiled to Lebanon in 1987, where they clove tightly to Hezbollah. In 1989 they moved to Damascus, where they remain a subsidiary of Hezbollah...
 (PIJ), say the PA is serving Israel’s agenda at a time when Israel is going after their operatives in the West Bank as they battle Israel in Gaza, sharpening old divisions between Abbas and the terror groups.

Residents of Tubas said festivities between the murderous Moslems and the PA this month involved heavy machine guns and bombs in some of the worst violence they can remember.

It highlights the precarious position of the PA, which was established by the 1994 Oslo Accords with Israel, as a stepping stone to a Paleostinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

The so-called two-state solution appears as far as ever, though it has come back into international focus of late as a way to bring peace. Israel, however, mistrusts Abbas and the PA, accusing it of incitement to terrorism in its education system and by paying stipends to tossed in the calaboose
Drop the rod and step away witcher hands up!
 terror operatives and families of slain terrorists.

Abbas’s secularist Fatah faction also recently issued condolences on the "martyrdom" of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, hailing as "a great national leader" the architect of the assault that sparked the Gaza war on October 7, 2023, when thousands of Hamas-led murderous Moslems stormed southern Israel to kill some 1,200 people and take 251 hostages.

Amid the war in Gaza, Israel has also launched several counterterrorism raids across the West Bank, especially in the north. The army says it has arrested 5,250 wanted Paleostinians, including 2,050 affiliated with Hamas.

According to the PA health ministry, 716 Paleostinians have been killed in the raids. Israel says the vast majority were button men killed in exchanges of fire, rioters who clashed with troops or murderous Moslems carrying out attacks.

The Ramallah-based PA controlled Gaza until 2007, when Hamas routed forces loyal to Abbas, but is now confined to running patches of the West Bank — often in coordination with Israeli security forces, who control the territory.

The United States has said it wants to see the war in Gaza end with the Strip and the West Bank unified under a reformed and revitalized PA.

For Abbas, 88, the Tubas campaign is partly about weakening the grip Hamas and PIJ have gained over the northern West Bank, in what his Fatah sees as an Iran-backed attempt to undermine its position, according to Fatah officials and security sources.

It is also about disproving critics who view the PA as ineffective — a reputation that has overshadowed US-led diplomatic contacts over the role it might eventually play in Gaza, according to a former PA security official and an analyst.

A US State Department spokesperson declined comment on the Tubas operation, but acknowledged that US security cooperation with the PA includes funding, training and equipment.

Tubas Governor Ahmed al-Asaad said the PA had decided to strike with "an iron fist" against what he described as lawlessness and anarchy.

Two PA coppers have been maimed as their forces fought members of the "Tubas Battalion," an gang dominated by PIJ, and detained at least three of its members, including its leader.

STANDOFF
Al-Asaad said the PA was responding to public concern, giving the example of a bomb that had been recently planted near a school — apparently in preparation for an attack on Israeli forces.

"We don’t want — under the slogan of resistance or any other slogan — to destroy our country and to destroy Tubas," he said.

"Our approach is clear and is the approach of the president: the approach of peaceful, popular resistance and safeguarding security and order," he told Rooters in an interview.

The Paleostinian Authority has overhauled its operations in a variety of areas, assuaging some of the concern expressed by countries that provide aid.
On the whole, the revitalization effort had been "pretty well received," a European diplomat said.

On Saturday, dozens of PA coppers surrounded a building near Tubas where two Battalion button men were holed up, with one of them, Obada al-Masri, threatening to blow himself up, a source familiar with the incident said.

"We negotiated with him for almost five hours," said his father, Abdel Majid al-Masri, who was called to the scene to help convince his son to surrender.

He said his son eventually agreed after receiving guarantees he would be held in Tubas rather than at another PA jail where he was previously incarcerated and had suffered mistreatment.

Masri expressed relief that his son had been taken into PA custody rather than killed by Israeli forces, which have also been raiding Tubas in search of terror operatives and had previously tossed in the calaboose
Drop the rod and step away witcher hands up!
 his son for three years.

His son had chosen "the route of struggle to liberate Paleostine," he said, rejecting PA accusations that Battalion members were engaged in lawlessness.

PIJ condemned the operation, saying PA forces appeared to be aiming to eliminate resistance to Israel and their methods were no different.

LOW-HANGING FRUIT
PA security forces were heavily deployed, with a checkpoint on a road into the city, when Rooters visited Tubas this week, but the city was calm.

Ghaith al-Omari, an expert on PA affairs at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said the Tubas campaign was a much-needed attempt by the PA to assert itself in a part of the West Bank where its control had been "practically absent."

"The PA understands that nobody sees it as being capable of running Gaza and everyone cites the fact that they can’t even run the northern West Bank," said Omari, who has advised both Abbas and his predecessor, Yasser Arafat.

But one operation did not make a reputation, Omari said, noting that Tubas represented "low-hanging fruit" and that Hamas and PIJ were weaker there than in Jenin, also in the northern West Bank.

With US support, the 35,000-strong PA security forces were reconstituted after the 2007 Hamas takeover of Gaza.

Yet, the Washington Institute said in a July policy note, for the PA to assume governance in Gaza it would need extensive recruitment, equipment, vetting and training, a process it said would take years.

Israel, which accuses the PA of support for terrorism, has also rejected the notion of PA governance in Gaza.

While declining to comment on a potential role for PA security forces in post-war Gaza, the US State Department spokesperson reiterated that sustained peace in Gaza "must include Paleostinian-led governance and Gaza unified with the West Bank under the Paleostinian Authority."

In the West Bank, the biggest issue was that PA security forces were "really, really unpopular in the north," Omari said.

A September opinion poll showed that 89% of Paleostinians in the West Bank want Abbas to resign, and that Hamas has more support than Fatah there. Polls by the Paleostinian Center for Policy and Survey Research have consistently shown that Marwan Barghouti, a Fatah leader tossed in the calaboose
Drop the rod and step away witcher hands up!
 by Israel for murder, would win any presidential vote.

Omari said: "To do effective security you need both capabilities but also you need credibility and legitimacy."
Related:
Tubas: 2024-09-14 IDF: UNRWA staffer killed in West Bank raid was hurling explosives at troops
Tubas: 2024-09-11 Man critically injured as Palestinian tanker rams West Bank bus stop
Tubas: 2024-09-11 IDF renews major crackdown in northern West Bank, now operating in Tulkarem area
Link


Terror Networks
Foiled attack on Chabad Athens offers glimpse into Iran’s anti-Jewish terror plots
2024-10-06
[IsraelTimes] Since 2020, Islamic Republic is thought to be behind at least 33 thwarted kidnappings and murders of officials, Jewish and Israeli targets in West — likely an undercount

As the Iran-Israel conflict intensifies, Tehran is roiling the West with a wave of attempted hits and kidnappings against targets in Europa
...the land mass occupying the space between the English Channel and the Urals, also known as Moslem Lebensraum...
and the United States. Washington and its allies have reported a sharp rise in such plots linked to the Islamic Theocratic Republic in recent years. Since 2020, there have been at least 33 liquidation or abduction attempts in the West in which local or Israeli authorities allege an Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
link, Rooters found in an examination of court documents and public statements by government officials.

Among recent alleged targets: a building that houses a Jewish center and kosher restaurant in downtown Athens.

From his perch in Iran, a Pak named Sayed Fakhar Abbas recruited an old acquaintance living in Greece and directed him to attack the site, Sherlocks allege in documents submitted to judicial authorities in the case and viewed by Rooters. Abbas told his contact that he was working for a group that would pay some 15,000 euros per kill.

In a January 2023 WhatsApp exchange detailed in the documents, the two men discussed whether to use explosives or arson in the attack. Abbas stressed the need to provide proof of casualties after the strike.

"There are secret agencies" involved, he said, without naming names. "Do the job in a way that does not leave any room for complaints by them."

The previously unreported documents include hundreds of pages of evidence gathered during Greece’s pre-trial probe, including witness testimony, police statements and details of WhatsApp messages. They purport to show how Abbas groomed his contact, a slim-built fellow Pak named Syed Irtaza Haider, as the two drifted between prosaic talk of life back home and plotting attacks.

Greek authorities arrested Haider and another Pak last year, saying police helped dismantle a terrorist network directed from abroad that intended to inflict "human loss." The two men face terrorism-related charges. They deny wrongdoing.

Haider, released from pre-trial detention this spring with restrictions, says he’s innocent. In an interview, the 28-year-old told Rooters he sent Abbas images of the building but intentionally stalled on carrying out any attack, hoping to get paid without harming anyone.

"It was all talk but no action," he said. His lawyer, Zacharias Kesses, said Haider "never participated substantially" in illegal activity.

Alleged ringleader Abbas also faces terrorism-related charges. Back home in Pakistain, he is wanted on suspicion of murder, a Pak police official said. Abbas remains on the lam and couldn’t be reached for comment. The third suspect also couldn’t be reached. That man has denied wrongdoing, according to Iraklis Stavaris, a lawyer who represented him when he was charged.

Greek police declined to comment. The case awaits a decision by judicial authorities about whether to proceed to trial, according to Haider’s lawyer.

The Mossad, which assisted the Greek probe, has said the planned attack was orchestrated by Iran as part of a multinational network operated from the Islamic Theocratic Republic. Israel declined to comment on the case or other Mossad activities.

Iran denies the Mossad’s claim. The operational techniques fit patterns seen in some other alleged Iranian plots, however. That includes the type of target — Israeli or Jewish civilians — and the use of hired non-Iranian assassins. At least two other cases tallied by Rooters allegedly involved Pak nationals.

Targets of other recent alleged plots include senior US officials as well as Iranian journalists and others in the diaspora. Former US president Donald Trump
...They hit him with slander, they impeached him twice. Nancy Pelosi tore up his State of the Union address on national TV. They stole an election and put his adherents in jail. They vilified him. They couldn't crucify him, so they shot him. Still, they can't keep him down...
 was briefed by US intelligence on "real and specific threats from Iran to assassinate him," his campaign recently said. Tehran has publicly denied involvement in some alleged plots in the US.

The shadow war is also playing out in Europe, site of most of the alleged plots tallied by Rooters.

"Since 2020, Iran has dramatically intensified lethal plotting against former US officials, Iranian dissidents and Jewish and Israeli interests in the United States and abroad," said Brett Holmgren, acting director of the National Counterterrorism Center, a US intelligence-coordinating agency.

Tehran has in turn accused its rivals of terrorist acts, pointing to killings of senior members of its security forces by Israel and the US.

The Iranian mission to the United Nations
...a formerly good idea gone bad...
 in New York told Rooters that the Islamic Theocratic Republic "harbors neither the intent nor the plan to engage in liquidation or abduction operations, whether in the West or any other country." It called such allegations "fabrications" meant "to divert attention from the atrocities committed by the Israeli regime" in the conflict in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
...the very aged actual dictator of Iran, successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini...>
, has over the years repeatedly called for an end to Israel, and Tehran has been accused of antisemitism by US and other Western politicians. Iran has said it respects Judaism but opposes Israel.

The recent rise in alleged hit attempts comes amid escalating tensions between the Islamic Theocratic Republic and Israel.

Iran on Tuesday fired a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday, driving millions into bomb shelters, amid Israel’s escalation against Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah over the past two weeks. Israel also recently said it thwarted an Iranian-backed liquidation plot targeting prominent people.

HIRED ASSASSINS
The Rooters tally of Iranian plots includes incidents that were alleged or found to have been orchestrated by the Islamic Theocratic Republic, conducted on its behalf, or directed by someone in Iran or with close ties to it.

It is likely an undercount, because it captures only cases in which authorities have publicly alleged an Iran connection. Some governments are wary of publicly calling out Iran due to diplomatic considerations, said Matthew Levitt, director of the counterterrorism program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank.

Mossad director David Barnea said last year that over the previous year, Israeli intelligence had worked with international partners to disrupt 27 teams that tried to mount attacks abroad that were "orchestrated, criminal masterminded, and directed by Iran." Israel declined to provide details.

One key trend among the alleged plots reviewed by Rooters is the use of hired hit men, including organized criminals and gang members. Washington and its allies say the outsourcing is an attempt to obscure links to the Islamic Theocratic Republic.

In December, a German court sentenced a German-Iranian man to two years and nine months in prison for planning an arson attack on a synagogue on behalf of the Iranian state. After learning of the security measures around the synagogue in Bochum, he threw a Molotov cocktail at a building next door, the Higher Regional Court in Dusseldorf found. The man admitted throwing the device at the building, according to the court’s ruling.

In echoes of the Greek case, he was recruited by a man living in Iran, another German-Iranian who is being investigated in Germany for two unrelated murders there, the court found. It said the Iran-based man was following orders by Iranian "government agencies." Tehran has called the allegation "baseless."

In the US, there have been at least five alleged Iran-linked liquidation or abduction cases brought by prosecutors since 2020. Three involved murder-for-hire plots.

Prosecutors recently charged a Pak man who they say had close ties to Iran in connection with a foiled attempt to assassinate a US politician or government official in retaliation for the US killing in January 2020 of Tehran’s most prominent military commander, Qassem Soleimani
.

Former US president Trump was discussed by the suspect as a potential target, but the 2024 scheme wasn’t conceived as a plot to assassinate him, according to a person familiar with the matter, as Rooters previously reported.

After spending time in Iran, the suspect, Asif Merchant, flew from Pakistain to the United States to recruit hit men for the plot, according to a July criminal complaint. Merchant was indicted last month for allegedly attempting to commit terrorism and murder-for-hire. Merchant has pleaded not guilty
"Wudn't me."
. His lawyer didn’t respond to requests for comment.

After Soleimani’s death, Iran’s Khamenei said harsh Dire Revenge awaited the "criminals" responsible. Iran’s UN mission told Rooters that Tehran’s policy is to lawfully prosecute those responsible for killing Soleimani.

’LETHAL OPERATIONS’
The target of another murder-for-hire plot in the US was an Iranian-American journalist and prominent critic of the Islamic Theocratic Republic.

Prosecutors allege members of an Eastern European crime group attempted to assassinate the journalist under the direction of a man in Iran. An Azeri living in the US allegedly received instructions and a $30,000 payment from the Iran-based man. The Azeri turned up at the journalist’s Brooklyn home with an AK-47-style assault rifle, prosecutors say.

The target, Masih Alinejad, told Rooters she was shocked when US authorities informed her the armed man had come to her house. She said she had heard someone at the door but hadn’t answered because she was engrossed in a video call.

Alinejad, a vocal critic of Iran’s head-covering laws for women, was previously the target of what prosecutors say was a foiled Tehran-backed kidnapping plot. Iran has denied that.

Alinejad, 48, said she was forced to abandon her home, leaving behind friends and neighbors for a series of temporary hideouts. She said she’s had to relocate nearly 20 times in recent years under US law-enforcement protection. In one long stint, she and her husband were separated from her stepchildren.

"We don’t feel safe anymore," Alinejad said of Iranian dissidents living in the US.

US prosecutors have charged three men in the murder plot. A fourth — the Azeri man, Khalid Mehdiyev — was named as a co-conspirator in an indictment filed last month. The Justice Department had no comment; Mehdiyev’s lawyer didn’t respond to comment requests.

Two of the other men have pleaded not guilty in the case. The third man faces charges of aiding murder and other crimes in his home country of Georgia, according to Czech authorities, who arrested him last year.

Matthew Olsen, the US assistant attorney general for national security, said Tehran has failed to hide its hand in the wave of plots on American soil.

"We’ve managed in a number of these cases to identify the malicious actors who are part of these proxy groups, but also to expose their direct ties back to the Iranian regime," Olsen said in an interview.

Among the Iranian officials named by Washington as responsible for directing attack planning is Mohammad Reza Ansari. The US says he is part of a Revolutionary Guards unit focused on "lethal operations" in the United States, Europe and elsewhere.

Ansari tried to kill two top former US government officials beginning in late 2021 with the help of another Iranian, Shahram Poursafi, according to Washington.

US prosecutors have charged Poursafi, who they say is a Revolutionary Guards member, with plotting to murder former US National Security Adviser John Bolton and another unnamed individual. Former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo identified himself as the second target in one of his books.

Bolton, in an interview, said he believes he remains a target of Iran. "I think this is the most unprecedented campaign of attempted liquidations against American officials and former officials in our history," he said.

Iran has called the allegations "ridiculous and baseless." Poursafi remains on the lam. He, Ansari and the Revolutionary Guards didn’t respond to requests for comment.

HEIGHTENED TENSION
At least six of the plots tallied by Rooters in Europe since 2020 involve Israeli or Jewish targets. Nearly all of those allegedly involve hired hit men.

It was during this time that Abbas contacted Haider from Iran. Haider was living in Greece as an undocumented migrant, according to the legal records Rooters viewed. Haider told Rooters that the two knew each other from back home. Both came from the same town of Alipur in Punjab
...1. Little Orphan Annie's bodyguard
2. A province of Pakistain ruled by one of the Sharif brothers
3. A province of India. It is majority (60 percent) Sikh and Hindoo (37 percent), which means it has relatively few Moslem riots
....
 province, eastern Pakistain. Both are Shi’ite Moslems, the faith of Iran’s theocracy, he told Greek authorities.

Haider studied engineering in Pakistain and arrived in Greece in 2019, he told Rooters. He settled on the island of Zakynthos, a popular tourist destination. He lived in an apartment building with other Pak nationals and found work in an olive grove and other seasonal jobs.

Abbas also came from Pakistain. Authorities there suspect him of criminal masterminding an October 2021 abduction and murder, according to a police official who works in Punjab province.

Greek police identified an Instagram account in the documents under the name Shani Shah Sherazi that they say belongs to Abbas. The last post to the account was in mid-October 2021.

Abbas, a married father of two, crossed into Iran by road in February 2022 and hasn’t returned, a Punjab intelligence official told Rooters.

It was after arriving in Iran that Abbas recruited Haider. By April 2022, the two were in contact via WhatsApp, according to Haider’s testimony to the investigative magistrate and messages detailed in the legal documents.

In a November 2022 WhatsApp exchange, the two men discussed targets and methods of lethal attacks. Abbas told Haider to emphasize to other potential recruits what the group was willing to pay: "The reward per head is five million rupees" — roughly 16,000 euros at the time.

The men frequently discussed money. Haider badgered Abbas to send funds, according to the WhatsApp records. Abbas complained in December 2022 that he couldn’t pay his rent and had to borrow cash.

"When the job is done, for the rest of our lives, we won’t want money again," Abbas wrote to Haider that month.

A STAGED MURDER
As 2022 drew to a close, Abbas pressed Haider to obtain images of the Chabad of Athens. The two-story building, on a side street in a bustling part of the capital, houses the Jewish center, which has a prayer area and a kosher restaurant.

Haider enlisted the help of the third suspect to supply photos and video of the building in December 2022, the man testified to the magistrate. The third suspect also told authorities he was unaware the building was a Jewish center. The third man said it was only later that Haider relayed Abbas’s proposal to pay for killings, whereupon he immediately refused.

In early January 2023, Haider traveled to Athens and recorded videos of the Chabad of Athens and surrounding area, he testified. In forwarding the footage to Abbas, Haider described the area as full of shops and tourists. Abbas responded by saying "good job."

Their methods were amateurish at times.

Haider staged a fake murder in an apparent effort to hoodwink Abbas and his bosses. While in Athens, Haider convinced a Nepalese-born man to play the part of the victim in a mock execution, promising to pay him 2,500 euros, according to testimony by the Nepalese man contained in the documents. Haider dressed him in clothes stained in what he said was blood from a slaughtered goat, then told him to lie on the floor and play dead so Haider could video him, the man testified. The Nepalese man couldn’t be reached for comment.

Haider told the investigating magistrate that he staged the ruse because Abbas was pressuring him to kill people.

MOUNTING PRESSURE
By the second week of January 2023, Abbas and Haider were focused on the Chabad of Athens restaurant, Sherlocks allege in the documents. Abbas suggested arson, the messages indicate.

"Anything you can, do it quickly, I won’t be given much time," Abbas wrote on January 9.

"It will be done, I promise," Haider responded.

Within weeks, authorities swooped in. Acting on an anonymous tip, Greek police searched Haider’s apartment and detained him for possessing fake identity papers. Prosecutors filed terrorism-related charges the next month. In testimony after his arrest, Haider described the group Abbas recruited him into as a large but unnamed Iran-based organization.

As he awaits trial, Haider says he is working two jobs on Zakynthos — in a restaurant kitchen and as a security watchman. He has trouble sleeping. He faces prison in Greece, but if he beats the charges, home isn’t an option, he said, because he fears retribution from Abbas or his circle.

"I am afraid because I don’t know what will happen here," he said, "and I cannot go back to Pakistain."
Link


Arabia
Drone strike damages ship off Yemen
2024-07-22
[NEWARAB] A commercial vessel was attacked twice by drones off the coast of Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of...
 on Saturday but proceeded with its voyage despite sustaining damage, a British maritime security agency said.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations, run by the British Navy, said the attack happened 64 nautical miles northwest of Mokha, Yemen, near the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

The vessel was first hit by an uncrewed aerial system that went kaboom! close by, causing minor damage, UKMTO said.

The second attack involved an uncrewed surface vessel that also went kaboom! nearby, it said, adding both the crew and vessel were safe.

The vessel later reported a missile "splashing in close proximity," which appears to have been a failed missile strike, said UKMTO.

The agency did not identify the vessel or say who was behind the attacks.

Yemen's Iran-backed Iran's Houthi sock puppets
...a Zaidi Shia insurgent group operating in Yemen. They have also been referred to as the Believing Youth. Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi is said to be the spiritual leader of the group and most of the military leaders are his relatives. The legitimate Yemeni government has accused the them of having ties to the Iranian government. Honest they did. The group has managed to gain control over all of Saada Governorate and parts of Amran, Al Jawf and Hajjah Governorates. Its slogan is God is Great, Death to America™, Death to Israel, a curse on the Jews They like shooting off... ummm... missiles that they would have us believe they make at home in their basements. On the plus side, they did murder Ali Abdullah Saleh, which was the only way the country was ever going to be rid of him...
 rebels have launched dozens of drone and missile strikes against Israel-linked shipping since November in a campaign they say is intended to signal solidarity with Paleostinians amid the war on Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with an iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
The Houthis have attacked at least 88 commercial vessels in nine months, according to a tally by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy think tank.

On Friday, the rebels struck a Singapore-flagged container ship with missiles and drones, sparking a fire that the crew later extinguished.

The Houthi attacks have prompted some shipping companies to detour around southern Africa to avoid the Red Sea, a vital route that usually carries about 12 percent of global trade.

Egypt's Suez Canal reported a 23.4 percent drop in annual revenues on Thursday, attributed to Red Sea shipping disruptions.
Link


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Islamic State claims responsibility for attacks in Iran, death toll revised down to 84
2024-01-05
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Follow up to this story from yesterday, when it was claimed around 200 were killed.
[Regnum] The Islamic Statt claimed responsibility for two terrorist attacks in the Iranian city of Kerman, in which 103 people were killed. This was reported by Reuters, citing a statement from the organization.

"Islamic State claimed responsibility on Thursday for two bombings that killed nearly 100 people and wounded many more at a ceremony in Iran commemorating commander Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by a US drone in 2020," it said.

As reported by Regnum news agency, on January 3, in the Iranian city of Kerman, an explosion occurred on the road leading to the cemetery where General Qasem Soleimani is buried. Ambulances were sent to the scene. The media also reported a second explosion.

The number of victims of a terrorist attack near a cemetery in Iran where Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) General Qassem Soleimani is buried has risen to 211 people. Previously it was reported that 103 were killed and 142 were injured.

According to media reports, Red Crescent employees were among the dead.

Following the terrorist attack, the Iranian government declared January 4 a day of universal mourning.

In turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin on January 3 expressed deep condolences to the leadership of Iran in connection with the tragic consequences of the terrorist attack in Kerman. The President's message was sent to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ali Khamenei, and the country's President, Ibrahim Raisi.
The Times of Israel adds:
The Islamic State group grabbed credit Thursday for two suicide kabooms targeting a commemoration for an Iranian general slain in a 2020 US dronezap, the worst terror attack to strike Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
in decades as the wider Middle East remains on edge.

Experts who follow the group confirmed that the statement, circulated online among jihadists, came from the murderous Moslems, who likely hope to take advantage of the chaos gripping the region amid Israel’s war on Hamas
...always the voice of sweet reason...
 in the Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with an iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
 Strip.

Wednesday’s attack in Kerman killed at least 84 people and maimed another 284. It targeted a ceremony honoring Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani
, held as an icon by supporters of the country’s theocracy and viewed by the US military as a deadly foe who aided gunnies who killed American troops in Iraq.

The Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not really Moslems....
 group identified the two attackers as Omar al-Mowahed and Seif-Allah al-Mujahed. The claim said the men carried out the attacks with explosive vests. It also used disparaging language when discussing Shiites, whom the Islamic State group views as heretics.

The statement did not mention which regional arm of the bully boyz carried out the attack, which other claims in the past have had. But Aaron Y. Zelin, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said that some previous claims have not specified the regional arm, and that the latest claim came directly from an account associated with the group.

The group likely hoped to see Iran strike at Israel, widening its war on Hamas into a regional conflict that Islamic State could potentially take advantage of, Zelin said.

"This falls under the modus operandi of IS, especially since it was such a mass casualty attack," Zelin said. "They are kind of like the Joker. They want to see the world burn. They don’t care how it happens as long as it benefits them."

An earlier report by the state-run IRNA news agency, later aired by state television
... and if you can't believe state television who can you believe?
, quoted an unnamed "informed source" as saying that surveillance footage from the route to the commemoration at Kerman’s Matryrs Cemetery clearly showed a male jacket wallah detonating explosives.

The official said the second blast "probably" came from another suicide bomber, though it hadn’t been determined beyond doubt.

The Iranian state media reports also gave new distances for how far apart the blasts happened, describing them as occurring 1.5 kilometers (about a mile) and 2.7 kilometers (1.68 miles) away from Soleimani’s crypt. The official said the bombers likely chose the locations because they were outside of the security perimeter for the commemoration.

An earlier corpse count of 103 was twice revised lower after officials realized that some names had been repeated on a list of victims and due to the severity of wounds suffered by some of the dead, health authorities said.

Many of the maimed were at death's door, however, so the corpse count could rise.
Related:
Kerman: 2024-01-04 Death toll of the terrorist attack near a cemetery in Iran more than 200 people
Kerman: 2024-01-03 At least 103 killed in Iran 'terrorist attack' at event honoring general taken out in US drone strike
Kerman: 2023-11-26 More than 400,000 Afghan migrants return home from Iran
Link


Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Iraqi militia attempts drone attack on Eilat, drone intercepted over Jordan
2023-12-22
[JPost] This hints that the IRGC is likely coordinating the attacks and "corralling" Iran's proxies which would normally argue over public leadership.
No doubt.
Iraqi militias launched a drone attack on Eilat, but the drone never made it and was intercepted by Jordan in its airspace.

An X (formerly Twitter) account associated with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella term for multiple pro-iran militias, announced that they had launched a drone attack on Eilat in Israel.

The Jordanian Defence Ministry announced that it had shot down the drone after it had crossed into Jordanian airspace, according to Maariv.

The document, signed by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), says that this attack is a continuation of their resistance to the occupation as well as to support the people of Gaza in response to "the massacres committed by the usurping entity against Palestinian civilians".

The IRI is not a fixed group according to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, "but rather a generic name used to denote unity among Iran-backed armed groups and deemphasize their individual identities during attacks spurred by the Gaza crisis."

The Institute recorded a series of attacks against American bases in Iraq launched by the IRI since October 17, with all of them being attributed to this "generic, no-logo brand" militia, this is part of Iran's "facade strategy" to avoid accountability for attacks on Americans.

IRGC LIKELY BEHIND ATTACKS FROM IRAQ
They suggest this hints that Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is likely coordinating the attacks and "corralling" Iran's proxies which would normally argue over public leadership.

The Institute highlights three main militias likely operating under the IRI umbrella, Kataib Hezbollah (who kidnapped Israeli Elizabeth Tsurkov earlier this year), Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada. Indeed the original account that tweeted about the drone attack is affiliated with Asaib Ahl al-Haq.

This escalation is likely part of Iran's attempts to use proxy groups around the Middle East to put pressure on the US and Israel, as has been the case with increased Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.

Further complicating the situation groups such as Asaib Ahl al-Haq also hold 17 seats in the Iraqi parliament as part of the Fatah Alliance (unrelated to the Palestinian party of the same name).
Related:
Islamic Resistance in Iraq: 2023-12-17 US Congress passes bill to equip Peshmerga with air defenses
Islamic Resistance in Iraq: 2023-12-04 Five members of Al-Nujaba Movement killed in American air strike in Kirkuk
Islamic Resistance in Iraq: 2023-11-23 Missile attack hits American base in Al-Shaddadi in Syria
Link


Home Front: Politix
US Congress passes bill to equip Peshmerga with air defenses
2023-12-17
[Rudaw] The United States Congress has passed a bill that includes equipping Peshmerga and Iraqi forces with air defense systems next year. The bill, the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), is now waiting for President Joe Biden’s signature.

“Not later than February 1, 2024, the Secretary of Defense, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall develop a plan of action to equip and train Iraqi security forces and Kurdish Peshmerga forces to defend against attack by missiles, rockets, and unmanned systems,” reads a provision in the $886 billion defense policy bill that was passed this week by both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

The plan must include “provision of available equipment to Iraq and the Iraqi Kurdistan Region to counter the air and missile threats addressed in the report, to include air defense systems, to counter attack by missiles, rockets, and unmanned systems,” as well as training on using the equipment.

The plan must be implemented by the defense secretary within 90 days of its development, however, implementation can be delayed if it “would adversely impact United States stock and readiness,” the bill reads.

Representative Don Bacon, who introduced the provision, said it was to increase the defensive capabilities of Kurdish and Iraqi forces “under frequent attack by Iran and its proxy forces in the region.”

Iran-backed militias in Iraq have frequently carried out rocket and drone attacks on bases housing US forces in Iraq and the Kurdistan Region, demanding the Americans leave the country. The militias renewed their attacks in mid-October, angry over Washington’s support for Israel in its war against Palestinian Hamas in the Gaza Strip. US troops have come under at least 89 separate attacks in the past two months, according to the Pentagon.

A pro-Iran Iraqi militia group under the name of “the Islamic Resistance in Iraq” has claimed responsibility. Washington has repeatedly condemned the strikes and called on Baghdad to put a stop to them. The US has also stated that it reserves the right to self-defense and has retaliated with air and drone strikes.

Last week, the US embassy in Baghdad was the target of a rocket attack. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani condemned attacks on diplomatic missions as terrorism. He issued a directive to pursue the perpetrators and reiterated Iraq’s commitment to protect diplomatic missions, but warned against any direct response without Baghdad’s approval.

The increase in attacks has imposed on the US a need to defend itself and its interests in the region, according to Bilal Wahab, a researcher at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

“The threat is tough… and the attacks are less random… The number of attacks has increased and became more dangerous, in terms of quality,” Wahab told Rudaw’s Nwenar Fatih on Friday.

“Maybe the US does not want to get into a war with the militias or get into a war with Iran, these are strategic topics and big questions, but the matter of protecting itself, it is the basics of every force,” he said.

In June, after the air defense provision was introduced into the NDAA, Iran was not happy and requested an explanation from the Iraqi government.

“Both the Iraqi government and the Kurdish regional authorities should act responsibly and adhere to maintaining the neighborly policy in relations with Iran," Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Nasser Kanaani was quoted by the Tehran Times.

"The Iraqi government will definitely clarify this issue and the regional authorities should also explain in this regard and we should see what their explanation is in this regard," he added.

Both Iraq and the Kurdistan Region maintain good neighborly relations with Iran. The two countries have a new border security pact in which Iraq promised to disarm Iranian Kurdish opposition forces on the border. Iran has fired ballistic missiles at these groups in the Kurdistan Region. Tehran accuses them of stoking unrest in Iran.

On Thursday, Kurdistan Region’s Interior Minister Rebar Ahmed met with Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian who commended Iraq for implementing the security agreement.
Related:
National Defense Authorization Act: 2023-12-16 10 Key Measures In The Mammoth Defense Policy Bill
National Defense Authorization Act: 2023-12-14 Congress passes $886 billion defense policy bill, Biden to sign into law
National Defense Authorization Act: 2023-11-24 Don't Endanger American Drone Technology with Bad Industrial Policy
Link



Warning: Undefined property: stdClass::$T in /data/rantburg.com/www/rantburg/pgrecentorg.php on line 132
-12 More