| India-Pakistan |
| Back from the brink |
| 2008-12-14 |
| After sabre-rattling, India sidesteps Pak army trap to start a war The dying year could have ended in a nuclear war. Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari picked up his phone and thought he heard Indian External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee threatening him, as loan recovery agents do. A scared Zardari alerted Pakistan's air defence, and told US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice what he had done. Had Zardari alerted his strategic nuclear command (Pakistan believes in first use), Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, too, would have. One miscalculation could have led to one of them pressing the launch button. Anyway, the comic episode demonstrated to the world how fragile Pakistan's politico-military higher command is, and how immature its leaders are. They did not even seem to know that foreign ministers normally call up their counterparts. Even if Mukherjee wanted to speak to Zardari, he would have first informed the diplomatic missions and checked if the president was willing to take his call. Naturally, Mukherjee was more amused than livid when he was told of the episode. While niceties of diplomacy were lost on Pakistani leaders, India deliberately shed nuances of diplomacy. Minister of State for External Affairs E. Ahmed read the charge-sheet in plain English at the United Nations Security Council: "A group of 10 terrorists from the global terrorist organisation Lashkar-e-Toiba reached Mumbai in the evening of November 26, 2008. The group divided themselves into four smaller groups and proceeded to pre-selected targets, which included a café and two major hotels . The attack was conducted like a commando operation indicating that the perpetrators had received professional training.... Nine terrorists were killed by our security forces while one of them was apprehended. His interrogation has revealed that they were trained in Pakistan and were launched from a ship from Karachi." No statement could have been more straight, putting the blame squarely on Pakistan. Ahmed then rattled the sabre: "India will act to safeguard and protect its people from such heinous attacks.... The Charter of the United Nations and provisions of international law, including the right of self-defence, give us the framework to fulfil these responsibilities." By now Washington put pressure on Islamabad to act against terror groups and rogue ISI elements, while Moscow advised Delhi to exercise caution. "Do not yield to provocation, is our advice," said Russian Ambassador Vyacheslav Trubnikov. Islamabad saw an opportunity in heeding Washington's advice. By arresting Lashkar and Jaish-e-Mohammad commanders, it thought it could effectively deflect attention from its army and ISI who had given the terrorists "professional training" as Ahmed had alleged. Delhi saw through the game and said it was "not satisfied". As Parliament debated the issue, indications from South Block were that India might move to cancel the dialogue process, while holding out the threat of surgical strikes on terror camps. In fact, a quick assessment made in the war room in South Block revealed that most targets were within India's artillery (45km) or Prithvi (250km) range. "We can inflict punishment without crossing the border or LoC," said an Army officer. All the same, India's attempt was not to fall into the trap set by the ISI and the Pak army, who wanted to enter into some sort of a truce with the insurgents on the Afghan border and move east. Interestingly, an all-party meeting held in Islamabad after the Indian sabre-rattling took note of a report that quoted an army official that the problems between Pakistan and the Taliban were based on "miscommunication and misunderstanding" and that Taliban leaders like Baitullah Mahsud and Jalaluddin Haqqani were great Pakistani patriots who would fight alongside the army against India. The politico-strategic logic was simple: If the Taliban were Pakistan's boy-scouts, why kill them at the instance of the Americans who have a problem with them in Afghanistan? Pakistan could leave that war to the US, and move 80,000 soldiers from the Afghan border to the east to confront India. The Pak army had other problems, too, in the west. Nearly 2,000 soldiers had died in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas war in which 80,000 heavily armed troops are facing 3.5 million people. More alarmingly, since the locals are mostly Pushtuns, there is grumbling among the Pushtun elements within the army itself. The army brass had to post out several battalion commanders (colonels) for having openly spoken out in favour of the Pushtun cause. Nearly one-fourth of the army consists of Pushtuns, with Pushtun officers consisting of 15 to 22 per cent in most units. Indian agencies are now convinced that the ISI had timed the attack also to influence the Obama team's Afghanistan-Pakistan policy, which is yet to be formulated. "The US does not know how to exit from Afghanistan," said an intelligence analyst in Delhi. "Islamabad is trying to tell Washington that both Afghanistan and Pakistan's western frontiers can be managed if a moderate, Pakistan-friendly Taliban is allowed to take control of Afghanistan. That would leave the US free to wage its global war on al Qaeda." Many in the Obama team are willing to have a negotiated settlement with the Taliban elements. Recently, The Washington Post reported, "Obama is open to supporting discussions between the Afghan government and 'reconcilable' elements of the Taliban, a nascent effort of which the state department [under George Bush] has been fairly dismissive." The Zardari establishment in Islamabad has reportedly been telling the Obama team that a substantial portion of the Taliban is "more opportunistic than ideologically committed". Apparently, sensing the mood of the new administration, General David McKiernan, commander of NATO and US troops in Afghanistan, recently said that the idea of "reconciliation, I think, is appropriate, and we'll be there to provide support within our mandate." If Obama is willing to do business with a Pakistan-controlled, 'moderate' Taliban, there is no need for the Pakistani army to be fighting a human-costly war on its western border. The danger for India in this approach is that, Islamabad, while seeking what is called a 'regional approach' to the Afghanistan issue would also like to drag the Kashmir issue into it. Already, pro-Pakistan think tanks in the United States believe that a world-innocent Obama could be brought around to this line of thinking, which even envisages formation of a 'control group' to address not only the Pakistan-Afghanistan problems but also Kashmir. Already, Islamabad and its backers in Beijing have raised the issue of Kashmir in the context of the Mumbai attacks. For India, the only way to keep Kashmir a bilateral issue is to continue talking. After all, that is what politicians, taking in a lot of vitriol of late, are good at. |
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| Afghanistan/South Asia |
| Russian diplomat on Chechen hit list |
| 2005-09-06 |
| Russia wants its ambassador here to be allowed to have Russian âarmedâ security personnel. The reason: a threat to his life from certain militant groups having links with extremist organisations in Chechnya. After being warned by Russian agencies of a âhigh threat perceptionâ to Vyacheslav Trubnikov, the embassy recently routed the request through the Foreign Office to the Home Ministry. Indian intelligence and security agencies too have warned the Home Ministry that militant groups are planning to eliminate Trubnikov. According to a Home Ministry note on the issue, Trubnikov was associated with an intelligence agency in the erstwhile USSR â possibly the KGB, which might explain the threat from Chechen militant outfits. Intelligence sources confirmed that there were reports indicating a possible link between Chechen rebels and militant outfits like the Jaish-e-Mohammed and the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba which operate in the Kashmir Valley. Following the inputs, security for the Russian ambassador and at the embassy has been beefed up. The Russian Embassy asked for two armed security personnel to guard Trubnikov. âWeâve made security arrangements for the ambassador till a final decision is taken on the issue,â said a ministry official. Though an ambassador can have his own private security personnel, permission is required from the Home Ministry if armed personnel are needed. A similar permission has been granted to the Israeli ambassador, who is also in the âhigh security riskâ category. Following the input on the Russian ambassador, the Home Ministry has directed the Indian intelligence agencies to do a security review of diplomats, particularly those from the US, the UK, France, Japan and some Islamic countries. Currently, the Delhi Police provide the security cover to most of them. Providing security to diplomats is the responsibility of the host country. But within the compound of the embassy, the country concerned can have its own security arrangements. The Americans, for instance, have the US Marines guarding the embassy premises. |
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| Caucasus |
| Turkish cannon fodder, Saudi cash driving Chechen jihad |
| 2004-04-26 |
| The Foreign Ministry on Friday reiterated its concern over alleged Turkish and Saudi support for rebels fighting federal forces in Chechnya. "We remain concerned over the activities of a series of nongovernmental social organizations on Turkish territory and individuals who, according to our information, are continuing to provide political, material and other support to the terrorists operating in Chechnya," Deputy Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Trubnikov said. He said there were "certain forces" in Saudi Arabia "who see the events in the Northern Caucasus from the position of Islamic extremists." He said that charity organizations and other social and religious groups frequently gave financial and material help to Chechen separatists. |
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| International | |
| Diplomat Confident About Return Of Russians At Guantanamo | |
| 2004-02-02 | |
Moscow expects the eight Russian citizens being held at the U.S. detention center at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, to be handed over to Russia soon for trial, a senior Russian diplomat said in comments published Monday.
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| Caucasus |
| Russia Says Turkish Grps Continuing Aid To Chechen Jihadis |
| 2004-01-25 |
| A top Russian diplomat on Friday accused Turkish non-governmental organizations of aiding Chechen rebels, and said some unnamed foreign governments were doing too little to stop funds, weapons and new cadres from reaching terrorists. "We are still concerned about the activity on Turkish territory of a series of non-governmental organizations and individuals who according to our information are continuing to provide political, material and other support to terrorists operating in Chechnya," Deputy Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Trubnikov was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. He said that Moscow had frequently raised the issue with Turkish authorities. "We are counting on a reaction based on the commonality of approaches to the problem of the fight against international terrorism," he said. Trubnikov said that the government regularly informed other states that their citizens were providing money and mercenaries to the Chechens. "I wonât hide that officials from these states donât always act on the facts we present to them actively or effectively enough, with the professionalism required," he said. |
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| Axis of Evil |
| Russian deputy FM: Iran not part of 'evil axis' |
| 2003-01-05 |
| Russia believes the branding of Iran as part of an evil axis is unjustified, First Deputy Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Trubnikov said. For the US to reckon Iran among its so-called "axis of evil" does not have a sufficient foundation. On the other hand, Russia sees Iran as an important regional partner, Trubnikov said. "Dont worry. We like you. Say! Is that... cash?" He added: "Tehran not only denounces international terrorism in words but has demonstrated in deed, in particular in Afghanistan, its readiness to participate in the struggle against this global evil." Assuming it suits their purposes... He noted that "the Iranian side immediately denounced the recent hostage-taking by Chechen terrorists in Moscow." While the semiofficial press enthused about the heroism of the Chechens... "Moreover, our experience of cooperation with Iran confirms that this state is able to play a positive role in the settlement of conflict situations, in consolidation of stability and security in the region," Trubnikov said. "They just haven't. But we're sure they could." "Russia is continuing regular political dialogue with Iran, encouraging the constructive participation of Tehran in international and regional affairs with an accent on the fight against terrorism, drug business, disarmament, non-proliferation and export control," he further said. "Mmmm... Looks like butter on that side of the bread..." |
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| The Alliance |
| Armitage in Russia |
| 2001-10-04 |
Richard L. Armitage flew through the night from Washington, landing in Moscow just after sunrise. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell's deputy and dearest friend headed for a government mansion, where he was closeted with his Russian counterpart, Vyacheslav Trubnikov, a senior deputy foreign minister and former head of the Kremlin's Foreign Intelligence Service. Just a week after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Armitage had been dispatched on a hastily arranged mission to ask for Russia's help in tracking down Saudi exile Osama bin Laden and his militant cadres and in mounting a military reprisal against them. But beyond the specific requests made during a full day of discussions that included midday talks over a buffet of traditional Russian meats and potato dishes, Armitage was posing a far more fundamental question: Were the two former Cold War adversaries prepared -- 12 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall -- to transform their still antagonistic relations? What the two men discussed that day, according to accounts by U.S. and Russian officials, led to one of the most intensive series of meetings, telephone conversations and back-channel communications between the two governments in many years. Emboldened by their united front against terrorism, the Bush and Putin administrations embarked on a course that could fundamentally recast U.S.-Russia relations. |
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