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Africa Horn
Eritrea pays warlord to influence Somalia
2013-07-18
NAIROBI -- Eritrea is undermining stability in conflict-ravaged Somalia by paying political agents and a warlord linked to Islamist militants to influence the Mogadishu government, U.N. sanctions experts said in a confidential report.
No surprise here. The Eritreans are a radical Islamic government and since breaking away from Ætheopia have been causing trouble throughout the Horn. They and the Shaboobs have a lot in common.
The Eritrean government has long denied playing any negative role in Somalia, saying it has no links to Islamist al Shabaab militants fighting to overthrow the Somali government. It says the U.N. sanctions imposed on it in 2009 for supporting al Shabaab were based on lies and has called for the sanctions to be lifted.

The latest annual report by the U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea to the Security Council's Somalia/Eritrea sanctions committee casts fresh doubt on Asmara's denials, undermining its case for lifting the sanctions against it.

"The Monitoring Group has received numerous reports about the warming of relations between Asmara and Mogadishu, and has obtained evidence of Asmara's control of political agents close to the Somali presidency and some of the individual spoilers," the group said in the report, seen by Reuters.

One such operative, the monitors said, is "Eritrean agent of influence Abdi Nur Siad 'Abdi Wal,' ... who is reported to have a close relationship with a senior al Shabaab commander."

The monitors describe Abdi Wal as a "warlord."

"Abdi Wal is now a close ally of former ARS-Asmara (a Somali Islamist network in Eritrea) leader Zakaria Mohamed Haji Abdi, for whom he provides security in Mogadishu," the monitors said. "He is known to command the allegiance of about 100 fighters in Mogadishu and is involved in contract killings."

The monitors said in their report that they have "obtained direct testimonies and concrete evidence of Eritrean support to Abdi Wal and Mohamed Wali Sheikh Ahmed Nuur." The Monitoring Group has reported on Ahmed Nuur in the past, describing him as a "political coordinator for al Shabaab" and a recipient of funds from Eritrea.

"A source on the Eritrean payroll in direct contact with Abdi Wal has confirmed that Abdi Wal has admitted in closed-door meetings that he is acting as an agent for the Eritrean government," the group said in its latest report.

The latest report said that Ahmed Nuur, also known as Ugas Mohamed Wali Sheikh, has repeatedly held meetings in Khartoum with Mohamed Mantai, Eritrea's ambassador to Sudan and, since December, Iran.

"During these meetings, options for Eritrean financial support to Ahmed Nuur were discussed," the report said.

"Mantai, a former military intelligence officer, has a history of operating in Somalia and was expelled from Kenya in 2009 after he returned from Somalia following meetings with al Shabaab agents," the monitors said.

In addition to their nearly 500-page report on Somalia and Eritrea, the Monitoring Group produced a separate report of around 80 pages focusing solely on Eritrea.

Council diplomats said the longer Somalia/Eritrea report will be made public soon, but the shorter Eritrea report will not be published because of Russian objections.
Perhaps Eritrea will become a new Soviet Russian client-state?
According to a letter the Russian delegation sent to Ambassador Kim Sook, chairman of the Somalia/Eritrea sanctions committee, Russia "objects to the publication of the (Eritrea) report due to the biased and groundless conclusions and recommendations contained in it."

Italian Ambassador Cesare Maria Ragaglini also wrote to Kim complaining about the report because of "misleading information and undocumented implications of violations of the arms embargo." Reuters has obtained both letters.

According to diplomats familiar with the U.N. monitors' shorter Eritrea report, an Italian helicopter exported to Eritrea for mining survey purposes was seen at a military facility there, raising the possibility of a sanctions breach. The monitors said Italian authorities failed to provide additional information as requested, the diplomats added.

Ragaglini dismissed that allegation, saying "we did provide the information they requested (e.g. on financial flows), but there is no evidence whatsoever of military assistance from Italy to sustain the undocumented claims of the experts."

China, diplomats say, is annoyed about references in the Eritrea report to Chinese machine tools procured for a large government depot in Eritrea that houses tanks, missiles and dual-use civilian trucks. But the envoys said there was no suggestion the Chinese government was violating U.N. sanctions.
Link


Africa Horn
Arms ship seized by Yemen may have been Somalia-bound
2013-07-03
An Iranian ship laden with arms seized by Yemeni authorities in January may also have been bound for Somalia, according to a confidential U.N. report seen by Reuters on Monday. Yemeni forces intercepted the ship, the Jihan 1, off Yemen's coast on January 23. U.S. and Yemeni officials said it was carrying a large cache of weapons, including surface-to-air missiles, being smuggled from Iran to insurgents in Yemen.

The confidential U.N. report, by the U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea, cited Yemeni officials as saying that it was possible diesel carried aboard the ship could have been intended for shipment to Somalia.

The group, which tracks compliance with Security Council sanctions, raised concerns in the report about the flow of weapons to Islamist al-Shabaab militants since the U.N. Security Council eased an arms embargo on Somalia's fragile Western-backed government earlier this year.

The report did not explicitly say that weapons on the ship were headed for Somalia, but one U.N. Security Council diplomat said that if it was true that the diesel was intended for Somalia, it could not be ruled out that other items on the ship, including weapons, might also have been intended for there.
What the Iranians should have done was to allow the ship to be 'hijacked'. Then they would have delivered the weapons and diesel, and gotten world sympathy to boot...
Alireza Miryousefi, a spokesman for Iran's U.N. mission, rejected the suggestion that Iran could be connected in any way with arms supplies to al-Shabaab.

"These are some baseless allegations and ridiculous fabrications about the Islamic Republic of Iran," he said. "This alleged report by the Monitoring Group on Somalia on arms shipments from Iran carries no basis or the minimum rationality."
"No, no, certainly not!"
A Western diplomat said that the fact that there were 16,716 blocks of C4 explosive on the Jihan 1 suggested a potential connection between Iran and al-Shabaab in Somalia, as Huthi rebels, unlike al-Shabaab, were not known to use C4.

The U.N. experts wrote that according to Yemeni security officials, the arms and ammunition were well-packed in small containers concealed inside several large compartments filled with diesel fuel.

"Yemeni officials indicated that this arms consignment was to be delivered to the Huthi rebellion in north Yemen," the report to the Security Council's sanctions committee said. "However the Monitoring Group investigated if some of the Jihan 1 cargo could have been intended for delivery in Somalia."

"When asked about this, security officials confirmed that the diesel could have been bound for Somalia," the report said. "Members of the crew have also divulged to a diplomatic source who interviewed them in Aden that the diesel was bound for Somalia."

The potential Somalia connection was not raised in a recent report by the U.N. Panel of Experts on Iran that monitors compliance with the U.N. sanctions regime against Tehran. That report said five of the Iran panel's eight members found that all available information clearly placed Tehran at the center of the Jihan arms smuggling operation. But three panel members - who U.N. diplomats said were from Russia, China and Nigeria - said the Jihan incident was a "probable", not definite, violation of the U.N. ban on Iranian arms exports.
Thus allowing them to close their eyes to the whole situation.
The latest experts' report said Yemen was the top source of arms in Somalia.

The group wrote that authorities in Puntland - a semi-autonomous region of Somalia which has a fractious relationship with Mogadishu - had said that one reason they had passed a law banning Yemeni petroleum imports the ease with which arms were smuggled in diesel containers like the ones on the Jihan 1.
So everyone except the U.N. knows how the scam works. Typical...
"Additional evidence indicates the involvement of an individual entity based in Djibouti as part of a network that supplies arms and ammunition to al-Shabaab in Somalia," it said.

The monitoring group said it was concerned about the possible export from Somalia of know-how in the manufacture of suicide vests and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) to Kenya and Uganda. It said it had analyzed a suicide vest discovered in Kenya in March, which was similar to ones used by al-Shabaab.

This, the group said, "suggests a transfer of know-how between al-Shabaab in Somalia and al-Shabaab members or its sympathizers operating in Kenya."

Although piracy off Somalia's coast had decreased, it said some of the demobilized pirates were providing private security services to unlicensed fishing vessels off Somalia's coast.

"Puntland officials estimate that tens of thousands of metric tons (1 metric ton = 1.1023 tons) of illegal catch has been fished from Puntland's coastline between 2012 and 2013 by hundreds of illegal fishing vessels," the report said.

"The vessels are predominantly Iranian and Yemeni owned and all use Somali armed security," it said.

The Monitoring Group said it was investigating reports that illegal fishing vessels were also being used to smuggle weapons. While the reports were unconfirmed, the group had established "other connections between the illegal fishing networks and networks involved in the arms trade and connected to al-Shabaab in northeastern Somalia," the report said.

The Monitoring Group said Puntland officials estimated that as many as 180 illegal Iranian and 300 illegal Yemeni vessels were fishing in Somali waters, along with a small number of Chinese, Taiwanese, Korean and European-owned vessels.
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Africa Horn
Drone operations over Somalia pose danger to air traffic, U.N. says
2012-07-26
The skies over Somalia have become so congested with drones that the unmanned aircraft pose a danger to air traffic and potentially violate a long-standing arms embargo against the war-torn country, according to United Nations officials.
Let's just grant that the U.N. report may be a tad hysterical and overblown...
In a recently completed report, U.N. officials describe several narrowly averted disasters in which drones crashed into a refu­gee camp, flew dangerously close to a fuel dump and almost collided with a large passenger plane over Mogadishu, the capital.

Although U.N. investigators did not directly pin the blame for the mishaps on the United States, the report noted that at least two of the unmanned aircraft appeared to be U.S.-manufactured and suggested that Washington had been less than forthcoming about its drone operations in Somalia.
Not that we're particularly obligated to be forthcoming, especially to the U.N....
The U.S. military has conducted clandestine
'Clandestine' means we generally aren't forthcoming, you see...
drone flights over Somalia for years as part of a broader counterterrorism campaign against al-Shabab, a group of crazed Islamist terrorists fighters that controls much of the country and is affiliated with al-Qaeda.

Although the drone missions have long been an open secret, the Obama administration acknowledged last month for the first time that it “is engaged in a robust range of operations to target al-Qaeda and associated forces, including in Somalia.”
And we shouldn't have acknowledged even that...
The number of military drone flights over Somalia has increased substantially since the Air Force opened a new base last year in next-door Ethi­o­pia. The military opened a similar base in late 2009 in the Seychelles, an Indian Ocean archipelago off the eastern coast of Somalia.
Both operations previously revealed by WaPo...
Both of those operations complement a much bigger U.S. military drone base in Djibouti, a small country on Somalia’s northwestern border on the Horn of Africa.

In recent years, small teams of Special Operations forces and CIA operatives have gradually stepped up secret missions inside Somalia to rescue hostages and hunt for al-Shabab leaders.

The U.N. Security Council imposed an arms embargo on Somalia in 1992, although it has carved out an exception for an African Union military force that has been battling al-Shabab and propping up a transitional Somali government based in Mogadishu.

The U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia, which prepared the new report,
And which claimed all of its per-diems...
said that it considered the use of drones in that country “a potential violation of the arms embargo” because the aircraft are “exclusively military” in nature.
The arms embargo meant that people wouldn't sell the Somalis, and especially al-Shabab, arms. It doesn't say anything about us using drones, or supplying drones to our pals who might use them there on a peacekeeping (actually peacemaking) mission.
The Pentagon has supplied several small, hand-launched surveillance drones, known as Ravens, to the African Union troops in Somalia. But any other drones — such as the Predator and Reaper unmanned aircraft that the U.S. military flies at higher altitudes — would “be operating in violation of the embargo,” said Matthew Bryden, a Canadian official and coordinator for the U.N. Monitoring Group.
Only if we sold them to al-Shabab...
Spokesmen for the Pentagon and the State Department declined to comment on U.S. drone operations in Somalia.

The U.S. military has plans to send more surveillance drones to Somalia. Earlier this month, the Pentagon notified Congress that it will give eight additional hand-launched Ravens to Kenyan forces deployed to Somalia as part of the African Union mission.
Which also doesn't violate the embargo, since we're giving them to the Kenyans and not to the Somalis.
The U.N. report said that unmanned aircraft now “routinely operate in Somali airspace.” Confirmations are elusive, however, because it can be difficult for people on the ground to distinguish between drones and regular planes flying high overhead.

The United Nations said it had documented 64 unauthorized flights of drones, fighter jets or attack helicopters in Somalia since June 2011.
Unauthorized according to whom?
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Africa Horn
Somali President: UN Monitoring Group is the enemy of Somalia
2012-07-20
Bet you didn't see this coming...
MOGADISHU-The president of Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, has accused the UN monitoring group of being the enemy of the people of Somalia, and describing its contents as "unsubstantiated allegations."

While reacting to Monitoring Group charges of fraud, President Sharif said: " I asked why the UN monitoring group hasn't released such report against Somali leaders accused of corruption and misuse in the last twenty-years of conflict and civil war in the country?".. Many innocent have been killed and their properties looted and uncountable women were raped. Obviously, the group has failed its report on somalia.

"The current Transitional Federal government was established through a difficult time in neighboring Djibouti and at that moment nothing was provided to us by the international community, but the local Somali business community was the people who helped and stood with the government shoulder to shoulder to perform the national task," Somali president added.

Mr. Ahmed stressed that Every TFG official is in personal money owing, because they have a loan of funds to keep the government functioning. Even the soldiers, sometimes the salary is late or the salary does not come, and the soldiers continue to work because they are defending their country and their dignity.

Lastly, the president expressed his dissatisfaction that the recent Monitoring Group report was leaked at such a time whenSomaliais ending the transitional period for the first time.

The statement came after U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea suggested rampant theft of public funds is behind efforts by some political leaders to "hijack or derail" the ongoing transition process. The report said 70 percent of money donated never made it into public coffers in 2009 and 2010.
Link


Africa Horn
Eritrea reduces support for al Shabaab -- U.N. report
2012-07-17
(Sh.M.Network)-Eritrea
...is run by the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), with about the amounts of democracy and justice you'd expect from a party with that name. National elections have been periodically scheduled and cancelled; none have ever been held in the country. The president, Isaias Afewerki, has been in office since independence in 1993 and will probably die there of old age. ...
has reduced its support for the al Qaeda-allied al-Shabaab
... the personification of Somali state failure...
bully boy group in Somalia under international pressure, but still violates U.N. Security Council resolutions and remains a destabilizing influence, a U.N. report says.

The U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia and Eritrea, which investigates violations of an arms embargo on both nations, said in a report to the Council, seen by Rooters, that it had found no evidence of direct Eritrean support for al-Shabaab in the last year.

The Council imposed the embargo on the tiny east African state ofEritreain 2009 over concerns its government was providing finance and weapons to al-Shabaab -- charges Asmara denied. The Monitoring Group now says that support has evaporated.

This was "a symptom of growing friction between the authorities in Asmara and al-Shabaab's leadership" as well as the "result of enhanced international scrutiny, which has made direct support ... a much riskier undertaking than in the past", said the report, which is scheduled to be published this week.

"Although it is possible that the Eritrean authorities have continued to provide financial and other forms of assistance to (Somali) armed opposition groups, without their activities being detected, it is the Monitoring Group's assessment that any such assistance is negligible," the report said.

Instead, the panel presented evidence thatAsmaradeployed Æthiopian rebel groups via Somalia, sold weapons to smuggling rings in Sudan that do business with Paleostinian arms dealers, and imported spare parts for its air force.

The report also alleged that ethnic Afar rebels responsible for the killing of five European tourists in eastern Æthiopia in January were hosted and trained inEritrea, though there was no evidence theRed Seastate had a direct role in the killings.

It said the escape last year of Djiboutian prisoners of war held in Eritrea proved Asmara had violated a U.N. resolution calling on it to disclose information on their whereabouts after their capture following a border clash in 2008.

"Eritrea has failed to comply with Security Council resolutions and remains a destabilizing influence across much of the region," the report said.

The Red Sea state has previously rejected these allegations and has called for the replacement of the panel's members over what it calls their bias in favor of its arch-foe Æthiopia.

Eritrean envoys to the AU declined to comment specifically on the latest U.N. report.

Al-Shabaab has controlled much of southernSomaliasince 2007, imposing a strict version of Islamic law in areas under its control. But over the last year it has been forced out of the Somali capital Mogadishu and other parts of the south by the coordinated military operations of U.N.-backed African troops.

"TOO EARLY TO LIFT SANCTIONS"

Last year, the Monitoring Group alleged Eritrea was behind a failed plot to bomb an African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
summit in Æthiopia, had bankrolled known members of al-Shabaab in Kenya and had been involved in the smuggling of weapons through Sudan and Egypt.

As a result, the Council prolonged the arms embargo and assets freeze on Eritrea, in addition to a travel ban on some officials, amid an escalation in operations against al-Shabaab by AU, Kenyan and Æthiopian troops and their Somali allies.

Matthew Bryden, the Monitoring Group's coordinator, told Rooters that Eritrea was lobbying its allies at the Security Council to push for a removal of the arms embargo, but he said other Council members were reluctant to do this.

"We're trying to make the case that any improvement inEritrea's conduct is the result of sanctions, and that it's too early to lift them because of the other violations they have committed," Bryden said.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Treasury Department issued sanctions against Colonels Tewolde Habte Negash and Teame Abraham Goitom, two senior Eritrean military officers Washingtonsays have worked closely with al-Shabaab in the past.

Diplomats at the U.N. say theU.S.move against the two officers, who have not been subject to full Security Council sanctions, suggests thatEritreawill face sustained pressure from the United States and its allies in the Council.

Eritrean officials routinely deny involvement in Somalia and say the Council embargo decision was based on "fabricated lies" made up by theU.S. government and its ally Æthiopia.

In a letter obtained by Rooters in December, Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh accused the U.N. panel of bias and urged the Council's chair to establish an "independent, impartial and credible body".

TAXES, TRAFFICKING AND GOLD REVENUES

European and North American governments have also been concerned aboutEritrea's use of revenues from the taxation of Eritrean citizens in the diaspora, from human trafficking of refugees through Sudan andEgypt, and from gold mining.

The Monitoring Group reported that both the British and German governments had taken action to prevent taxes being collected from diaspora Eritreans in their territories, in which Eritrean government agents often use coercion.

"Individuals who refuse to make payment may have their inheritance rights voided, their family members may be penalized, and they may be subject to detention or denial of an exit visa if they return toEritrea," it said.

Asmara denies coercing its citizens, but insists it has the right to encourage its diaspora to contribute to the national budget, including for defense.

The report said Eritrean officials involved in the smuggling of weapons through Sudan and Egypt were also part of a people trafficking network that delivered tens of thousands of Eritrean refugees to Israel between 2009 and 2011.

Refugees interviewed in Israel said they were smuggled through Sudan by ethnic Rashaida gangs which the Monitoring Group says work with General Tekle Kiflai, the commander of Eritrea's western military zone.

Asmara says its fleeing nationals, often escaping unlimited military conscription, were being lured to leave the country by sustained American "propaganda".

The panel also urged the U.N. Security Council to consider measures to regulateEritrea's opaque gold mining sector, which it said has generated hundreds of millions of dollars.

The Monitoring Group recommended that the Council either askEritreato publish its revenues from gold mining or demand that private gold companies publish all payments to Asmara or pay into a monitored escrow account.
Link


Africa Horn
UN says Somali rebels using internet for fundraising, recruiting
2010-03-20
[Al Arabiya Latest] Armed rebel groups in Somalia are using the Internet for fundraising and recruitment, and they achieve better results through the Web than they do on the ground, a United Nations report said.

The report by the U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia also highlighted how the rebels use the Internet to spread information about making bombs and religious rulings.

It cited a three-day, live fundraiser in May last year and another online forum in March 2009 attended by senior members of al-Shabaab and Hizbul Islam, the two main rebel groups fighting the Western-backed government of President Sheikh Sharif Ahmed.
Link


Africa Horn
4 suspected Somali pirates arrested
2007-02-27

NAIROBI, Kenya - Somali authorities have arrested four suspects in the hijacking of a U.N.-chartered cargo ship delivering food aid, the U.N. said Tuesday. The MV Rozen, however, was still under the control of four pirates who remained aboard with 12 crew members as hostage, said the U.N's food agency.
"Yarrrr! One step closer an' we keelhauls the lot of 'em!"
The ship had been contracted to deliver aid to Somalia, where around 1 million people are suffering from a drought that hit the region last year. It had just delivered 1,800 metric tons of food when it was seized. The suspected pirates were arrested after they went ashore to buy supplies, Peter Goossens, the head of the U.N.'s World Food Program in Somalia, said in a statement.
"Whaddya mean, ye swabs? Yez offloaded all the food?"
"All of it, Black Pete! Sorry."
"Arrrrr! We'll just have to go ashore to buy groceries, then!"
"We're almost out of balogna, Cap'n!"
"Eh?"
"An' we need detergent!"
"Get me some Pringles, too, okay, Cap'n?"

Yarrrrr! We be stupid pirates!! Yarrrrrrrr!!!
The pirates are armed with AK-47 assault rifles and rocket-propelled grenade launchers, said Andrew Mwangura, head of the Kenyan chapter of the Seafarers Assistance Program, an independent group that monitors piracy in the region. "Negotiations are under way to try and secure the release of the vessel," he added. The conditions of the six Sri Lankan and six Kenyan crew members were unknown. The ship, hijacked Sunday, has been anchored six miles off the coast of the semiautonomous Puntland region in northeastern Somalia, near Bargal.

Three Somali police speedboats have surrounded the boat and a U.S. military vessel is patrolling the area and monitoring the situation. "We are appealing for the safe return of the crew and the vessel as soon as possible, and for people to respect the need for humanitarian delivery corridors," Goossens said. "Somalia is one of the poorest countries in the world, and there are families whose lives depend on our ability to get food aid through."
"Yarrrrr!! Well why didn't ya say so, matey? If we knew that we never would've attacked it fer it's booty. Yarrr!"
Somali pirates are trained fighters, often dressed in military fatigues, using speedboats equipped with satellite phones and Global Positioning System equipment. They are typically armed with automatic weapons, anti-tank rocket launchers and various types of grenades, according to the U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia. The bandits target passenger, cargo and fishing vessels for ransom or loot.
Yarrr! Cuz that's what pirates do! Yarrrr!
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Africa Horn
Somalia: U.S. Navy closes on pirated ship
2007-02-26
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AP) -- Three Somali police speedboats and a U.S. military vessel were headed Monday toward a U.N.-chartered cargo ship hijacked by pirates, a senior police official said.

Somali pirates boarded the MV Rozen -- which had just delivered a total of 1,800 metric tons (1,884 US tons) of food aid in northern Somalia -- on Sunday, taking the crew hostage, officials said.

It is the third U.N.-chartered ship to be hijacked in Somali waters since 2005.

Police boats were within sight of the ship "but we asked them to stop going further because our biggest concern is the safety of the crew of 12 on board," said Col. Abdi Ali Hagaafe, police chief of the Bari region.

"We have asked the U.S. Navy in the Red Sea ... to help us in the operation, and they told us they have started to move towards the ship," he said.

Somali pirates are trained fighters, often dressed in military fatigues, using speedboats equipped with satellite phones and Global Positioning System equipment. They typically are armed with automatic weapons, anti-tank rocket launchers and various types of grenades, according to the U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia.

The militiamen target passenger, cargo and fishing vessels for ransom or loot, using the money to buy weapons. Somalia's 3,000-kilometer (1,860-mile) coastline is Africa's longest.
Hmm... I wonder which side they are buying weapons for
Link


Africa: Horn
Somalia Faces Threat of New Civil War
2005-10-23
With too many weapons, too little food and three factions vying for control, Somalia's anarchy is overwhelming its new government even before it can establish itself. The competition for power, which threatens to trigger another civil war, could combine with a potential food crisis and repeat the disaster that followed the collapse of Somalia's last regime in 1991. U.S. forces under U.N. command went into the Horn of Africa nation to help the starving, and other nations joined them, but the U.N. failed to set up a viable government.

Already, at least one al-Qaida cell is believed to have set itself up, and experts agree that another civil war could create an opportunity for Islamic extremists to take power. Homegrown fundamentalists have set up an Islamic court system, and militias move freely in some parts of Mogadishu, the capital, enforcing the court's rulings by shutting bars and destroying shops that sell pirated DVDs and music cassettes. The United States has long feared that Islamic militants may take advantage of the clan-fueled anarchy to replicate the Taliban's Afghanistan.

Heightened tensions in the capital come as poor rainfall, mass displacement of farmers due to fighting and extensive environmental destruction set the stage for widespread hunger. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization is calling for contingency planning for southern Somalia. "Civil insecurity and unrest continues to be one of the main factors contributing to food and livelihood insecurity throughout the region," the FAO's Food Security Analysis Unit said in its October report. Most Somalis already depend on handouts. Many live in wretched camps, their homes destroyed in clan fighting. The feared crop failure could increase their dependency on foreign food aid, already made tenuous by the instability.

A year-old transitional government is meant to bring peace and the first central government in 14 years, but has split in two. The secular president and prime minister are based in the small town of Jowhar, while the warlords of Mogadishu, some of them also Cabinet ministers, have stopped cooperating until they get some concessions from the president. Forming a third force are fundamentalists who will settle for no less than an Islamic government, one of its leaders, Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, told The Associated Press in an interview this month. All three sides have received large shipments of arms — often from neighboring countries hoping to gain influence with Somalia's competing clans — setting the stage for renewed war, according to the U.N. Monitoring Group on Somalia. It has reported to the Security Council that there is a "severely elevated threat of widespread violence in central and southern Somalia."

Since none of the three factions is believed to have sufficient firepower to defeat the other, no one knows how long the stalemate might last. Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi's government, the product of the 14th peace process in 15 years, originally included all of the key warlords and received a great deal of international backing. "We are trying to calm the militias, but it is not an easy task to restore security and stability in the country," Gedi said in an interview in neighboring Kenya. He dismissed the schism within his Cabinet, pointing out that out of 42 members, only five were in Mogadishu and refusing to cooperate with him. "It is not as bad as people are saying," he said.

But it is bad enough to split the international community. Diplomats can't agree on whether to throw their full weight behind Gedi and President Abdulahi Yusuf, or wait and hope the Mogadishu warlords can be coaxed back into the peace process, officials familiar with ongoing discussions said. While the four key militia leaders in Mogadishu control the only city in the country and most of Somalia's economy, the only thing they seem to share is a hatred for Yusuf, and what they say are his dictatorial inclinations. While reconciliation efforts are under way, few hold out any hope of success.

Waiting in the wings are Somalia's fundamentalist Muslims, some of whom are listed by the U.S. State Department as al-Qaida collaborators. The most prominent is Aweys. While he won't address allegations he's had contacts with al-Qaida, he doesn't hide his opposition to Yusuf, his readiness to declare a jihad should foreign peacekeepers enter Somalia, or his plans to establish an Islamic government.
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