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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Putin raises the stakes on ‘ghost fleet' security, as NATO launches war games in the Baltic Sea

2025-06-09

[FoxNews] 'There's a growing importance of the shadow fleet to Russia's wartime economy, and a growing awareness that NATO needs to stop it,' expert says.

NATO navies are putting on a display of maritime might in the Baltic Sea this month, as thousands of personnel from 17 countries aboard 50 vessels take part in war games led by the U.S. Navy's 6th Fleet.

Of the nine countries that share a Baltic Sea coastline, only Russia is not a NATO member, and June's BALTOPS exercise aims to ensure those other countries can work together to defend the area, at a time when Moscow is turning up the heat.

"This year’s BALTOPS is more than just an exercise," said U.S. Vice Admiral J.T. Anderson in a press release this week. "It’s a visible demonstration of our Alliance’s resolve, adaptability and maritime strength."

Over the last year there's been growing disquiet about Russia's malign influence in the Baltic Sea region, with several incidents of severed undersea cables. Suspicion has fallen on Russia's fleet of so-called "ghost" or "shadow" ships: hundreds of aging vessels, mostly oil tankers flying under foreign flags that are used to circumvent Western sanctions or trade in military hardware.

There are also well-founded concerns that some of these ships are used for covert intelligence gathering, communication intercepts or to sabotage undersea infrastructure like internet cables or gas and electricity pipelines. Three crew members from a Cook Islands-registered vessel, believed to be part of Russia’s ghost fleet, are currently facing charges in Finland over damage to an undersea cable that prosecutors say happened when the ship dragged its anchor for 60 miles along the floor of the Baltic Sea.

"There's a growing importance of the shadow fleet to Russia's wartime economy, and a growing awareness that NATO needs to stop it," Tony Lawrence, a naval expert and researcher at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Estonia, told Fox News Digital.

But after a number of NATO navies adopted a tougher stance against the ghost ships through stop-and-search tactics, the Russians announced they would use their own navy to escort the fleet through the Baltic Sea.

"The Russian military presence in the region has always been visible, this is not a new feature. However, what is new is that Russia is protecting its shadow fleet tankers in the narrow pass of the Gulf of Finland," Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen said in a recent television interview with Finland's YLE TV.

NATO governments are keeping a close eye on the latest Baltic Sea developments and preparing for any possible increase in tensions. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen spoke at a meeting of NATO's Nordic and Baltic members this week, and described the Russian threat as real and serious. "We see a more aggressive Russian approach in the Baltic Sea region," she told reporters.

The Baltic Sea has relatively narrow waterways, where international maritime boundaries extend 12 miles from the coast, and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) incorporate valuable fishing grounds or offshore wind farms. Add to this some of the busiest ferry routes in the world, commercial shipping traffic, military warships and civilian craft, and it raises the possibility that a more robust Russian naval posture in the area could increase the possibility of conflict.

"This is the risk of having more warships floating around the Baltic Sea, there is a potential for miscalculations that could escalate, and risk-reduction mechanisms that used to exist don't work any more because the [NATO and Russian] navies aren't talking to each other anymore," Lawrence told Fox News Digital.

Does the Russian navy even have the capacity to escort every single ghost fleet ship in the Baltic? That seems unlikely, according to some.

"It's an escalation, of course, of Russian misbehavior in the Baltic Sea. But in practical terms I'm not sure it's going to make that much difference," Lawrence said.

"Russia's Baltic Sea fleet has always been the junior cousin of the Russian navy, and it's never been particularly well-equipped or enlarged, but it's still the biggest national navy operating in the Baltic, and they have ships that are attuned to the Baltic Sea, which is shallow, and its salinity is such that you need special kinds of sensors. And they know how to hide ships in the archipelagos of Sweden or Finland, so in that regard, they have a certain amount of specialist capability," Lawrence explained.

The Baltic Sea war games this month – with the U.S. Navy's Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Paul Ignatius and the Blue Ridge-class command and control ship USS Mount Whitney taking part – serve to remind the Russians of the power of NATO's combined naval assets in the region.

Link

Europe

German arrest warrant over Nord Stream blast mystery

2024-08-15

[BBC] German state prosecutors trying to solve the mystery of who blew up the Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic Sea in 2022 have issued an arrest warrant for a Ukrainian diving instructor.

The suspect has been named as Volodymyr Z by German media, who have treated the sabotage like a sensational true crime drama.

Ines Peterson, a spokeswoman for Germany’s prosecutor general, declined to confirm the arrest warrant, telling the BBC that her office never commented so as not to jeopardise the investigation by giving the suspect a chance to escape.

But the Polish prosecutor general's spokeswoman, Anna Adamiak, in Warsaw told the BBC's Adam Easton that a European Arrest Warrant had indeed been passed to them by German prosecutors.

When Polish officers went to Volodymyr Z’s home in early July, he had already left the country for Ukraine, she said.

He had until then been living in a quiet residential area of Pruszków, a town near Warsaw, German media say.

According to an investigation by three German media outlets, including public broadcaster ARD, Volodymyr Z was part of a team of experienced Ukrainian divers who in September 2022 hired a German yacht, sailed out into the Baltic Sea and planted the explosives, blowing up three of the four Nord Stream pipelines.

A Ukrainian man and a Ukrainian woman are also suspected of involvement.

If the latest media reports are true, that a group of Ukrainian divers blew up the pipelines, it still doesn’t answer the broader question of who ordered the attack.

There is so far no public evidence linking it to the Ukrainian or Russian state or for that matter any other country or individual group.

For years there have been conspiracy theories around the attack, with unconfirmed rumours that governments in Kyiv, Moscow or Washington were behind the attack.

There has also been speculation that Ukrainian or Russian military groups, acting without the knowledge of the Ukrainian government, might have been responsible.
Underwater drone footage of the damage to the Nord Stream pipeline

The Nord Stream pipelines carried gas from Russia to Germany under the Baltic Sea and were a controversial and unpopular symbol of European energy dependence on Moscow. In other words it’s easy to imagine motives for such an attack.

For years Eastern Europeans warned Berlin that this dependence on Russian gas made Europe vulnerable.

But successive German governments, from Gerhard Schröder’s left-wing coalition to Angela Merkel’s conservative-led administrations, argued that binding Russia to Europe with energy and trade links would help both countries economically and ensure peace.

Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 destroyed that hope and mainstream politicians across the political spectrum in Germany have now admitted they were wrong.

Link

Home Front: Politix

Seymour Hersh: Obama and Kamala threatened to invoke the 25th Amendment on Biden before he dropped out

2024-07-28

[PM] Yeah, Sy Hersh... But he's OK to remain POTUS til the inauguration?

Mr. Hersh is forever chasing the feeling of getting a prestigious award for whatever it was he got right that first time, except ever since he’s been neglecting the getting right part. But he hates America, which is all that matters for some people.

Link

Europe

Zakharova calls on Poland to name the role of the United States in the terrorist attack on Nord Streams

2024-05-26

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] Poland, instead of commenting on the conflict in Ukraine, should publish the data it has on US participation in undermining the Nord Streams.Official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova stated this on May 25 in an interview with Izvestia.

“It would be better if the Polish Foreign Minister told us what he knows about the bombings of Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 and Washington’s role in this crime,” the diplomat urged.

This is how Zakharova responded to the statements of Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, who in an interview with The Guardian said that the United States allegedly threatened Russia to strike military positions in the special operation zone if Moscow used nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

As Regnum reported, according to Sikorsky, if the ban on the use of nuclear weapons is violated, then several countries, including Japan and South Korea, will become “nuclear.” NATO countries need to “learn to play the game of escalation better” so that Russian President Vladimir Putin can only guess about the alliance’s intentions, the head of the Polish Foreign Ministry added.

On April 26, China's Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Geng Shuang, said at a meeting of the Security Council of the world organization that the terrorist attack on Nord Stream should be investigated under the auspices of the UN. He called on the relevant countries to actively interact and cooperate with Russia in the joint investigation of the terrorist attack.

According to American journalist Seymour Hersh, the US authorities decided to blow up Nord Stream because they feared Germany would resume gas purchases along this route in winter conditions. US President Joe Biden wanted to be sure that Germany “will not leave the game” and will remain a participant in the confrontation with Russia, the journalist believes.

On April 3, the Russian Prosecutor General's Office appealed to the United States, Germany, France and Cyprus in the case of undermining the Nord Streams. The department expressed the hope that their Western colleagues will consider these materials in good faith and fulfill their obligations to conduct an investigation into the information provided, assist in obtaining evidence and ensure the inevitability of punishment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin in November 2022 called the bombing of Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 an obvious terrorist attack. He also stated that, theoretically, the United States was interested in the explosions at the SP, which, as a result of the terrorist attack, expanded the possibilities for selling liquefied natural gas in Europe.

The Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines were blown up in September 2022. As a result, both SP threads and one of the two SP-2 threads completely failed. The incident occurred in the exclusive economic zones of Sweden and Denmark. The FSB opened a criminal case under the article on international terrorism (Part 1 of Article 361 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation).

Related from regnum.ru
Polish Foreign Minister threatens Russia with an American strike over nuclear weapons

After the start of the special operation, the United States threatened Russia with a strike on its positions in Ukraine, which would allegedly be delivered if the Russian military used nuclear weapons, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview with The Guardian.

“The Americans told the Russians that if you detonate a nuclear weapon, even if it doesn’t kill anyone, we will hit all your targets in Ukraine with conventional weapons,” he said, without specifying who allegedly made the statement.

If the ban on the use of nuclear weapons is violated, Sikorsky said, then several countries, including Japan and South Korea, will immediately become “nuclear.” He also said NATO countries need to "learn to play the escalation game better" so that Russian President Vladimir Putin can only guess at the alliance's intentions.

As reported by IA Regnum, earlier Deputy Head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sergei Ryabkov stated that Russia would move away from the topic of “red lines” and would respond to the West in a mirror manner in matters of nuclear threats.

The diplomat also stated the need to strengthen nuclear deterrence measures due to Western actions. He called exercises to develop skills in the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons one of the necessary steps.

On May 6, the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, on behalf of President Vladimir Putin, began preparations for exercises with missile formations of the Southern Military District, involving aviation and the navy. During the exercises, activities will be held to practice the preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons.

The Ministry of Defense noted that the exercises should support the readiness of personnel and equipment of units for the combat use of non-strategic nuclear weapons to respond and in order to unconditionally ensure the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Russian state in response to provocative statements and threats of individual Western officials against Russia.

Link

Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Will the Americans stage a coup in Ukraine?

2024-02-06

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Vladimir Kornilov

[RIA] The words “coup” and “rebellion” have become very popular among commentators on the situation in Ukraine. The further the open conflict between Vladimir Zelensky and General Valery Zaluzhny develops, the more often scenarios for the forceful removal of the Ukrainian president from his post are discussed.

“Zelensky will become a walking dead man for the army, which stands for the general. He will get a mutiny,” American investigative journalist Seymour Hersh quotes an unnamed Ukrainian official. “There could be a coup in Ukraine. Neither Nuland nor the CIA will be able to protect Zelensky if the right comes to power. They tolerated Zelensky only because of Zaluzhny,” says German businessman and popular blogger Kim Dotcom.

Former adviser to the President of Ukraine Oleg Soskin, in his video blog, draws historical parallels with the current situation, comparing Zelensky with the ideologist and leader of the Central Rada Vladimir Vinnychenko, and Zaluzhny with Ataman Simon Petlyura. Just one of these days will mark the 105th anniversary of the coup in the leadership of the UPR, when, at the direction of the Western allies (their wording was extremely frank: “Drive out like dogs!”), the ataman removed the once popular playwright Vinnychenko from power, taking on dictatorial powers. The wounded artist, from whom the head of the state did not emerge, went abroad, declaring: “I am leaving as a writer, but as a politician I want to die.” Petlyura continued the war with Soviet Russia, eventually surrendering Ukraine to the Poles. A classic scenario for this area!

It is no coincidence that former Verkhovna Rada deputy Andrei Derkach, who recently returned to the media space with accusations against Biden, also refers to the classics of the Ukrainian past. Analyzing the squabble between Zelensky, Zaluzhny and the sharply revived Poroshenko, he called it “the classic Ukrainian struggle for power of “three hetmans,” which we have seen many times in history: the hetman of Left Bank Ukraine, the hetman of Right Bank Ukraine, the hetman “wandering” abroad in search of support ". “In fact, Ze is being drained,” Derkach comes to the conclusion, speaking about the future fate of Zelensky.

Of course, in Ukraine all such arguments are dismissed, attributing them exclusively to “Russian propaganda.” But it is curious that on the pages of the British The Times at the same time an article appears by “expert on Russia and Ukraine” Mark Galeotti, who is difficult to suspect of playing along with Moscow. The title of his material alone is worth it: “The Ukrainian war has changed, so Zelensky must reinvent himself.” The author directly writes that the President of Ukraine has outlived his usefulness as a “military leader” and must do something to “adapt again” to changes at the front and in politics.

It also cites the words of a certain former Ukrainian diplomat: “The country sees that he is more of a leader than a politician - these qualities that made him indispensable in 2022 may not be so valuable in 2024.” A direct hint that now Zelensky can be replaced. Galeotti modestly keeps silent about who and how will change this “more leader than politician.” But, citing a British diplomat who worked in Kiev, he suggests that the corresponding changes will occur this spring. I wonder where the Briton got this information from? For some reason, analogies again arise with the call of the Europeans in 1919 to kick out the head of the then Ukraine “like a dog.”

When you consider all these conspiracy theories of overthrows and coups, you involuntarily ask the question: can Americans really agree to the forced removal from power of the man they recently idolized in 2022? It is enough to remember how Zelensky was received in the US Congress, and its speaker kissed his hands to drive away these thoughts. After all this, Washington cannot give the go-ahead for the overthrow of such an authoritative leader there, the Ukrainian Churchill!

But history knows many examples when Americans without hesitation eliminated their former allies. We have already mentioned the classic example of the assassination of an Asian Churchill approved by the United States in the 1960s - the leader of South Vietnam Ngo Dinh Diem, who faithfully served America. To understand how Americans feel about their allies, you don’t have to go far into history. Just look at how they are now bombing the territory of Iraq, their official “strategic partner.” There is no need to doubt that if the goals and objectives in Ukraine change, they will treat Zelensky and the entire Kyiv regime in exactly the same way.

Moreover, no one in the US leadership has any special illusions about the essence of this regime. According to the well-informed Hersh, last year the head of the CIA, William Burns, directly told Zelensky that Washington was aware of “his personal sins of corruption” and demanded that he moderate his appetite for dividing up the stolen goods. Judging by the campaign that then unfolded in the Western media against Zelensky, he misunderstood Burns’ warning.

So the United States probably has both a plan B and a plan C regarding the Ukrainian Churchill, who has fallen out of favor. If something happens, their hand will not tremble. And the only choice will be whether Zelensky will turn into a “wandering hetman” or follow the beaten path of the Asian Churchill.

Link

Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

'Schrödinger's Zaluzhny'. Why Ukrainians love him so much, but Zelensky doesn’t

2024-02-06

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Anatoly Savenko

[REGNUM] Judging by the situation today, resignation is already a done deal: The Washington Post writes that Kyiv has informed Washington of its intention to dismiss the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But the resignation itself has not yet taken place. This gave rise to a popular meme in Ukraine about “Schrödinger’s Zaluzhny.”

If Schrödinger’s cat is equally likely to be alive and dead, then the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is simultaneously acting and dismissed. Every day the media reports new details: “they fired” - “not yet”, “they will exchange for Syrsky!” - “no, it’s Budanov!”, “it’s all fake” - “no, they’ll be filming it very soon.” In general, a typical Ukrainian story. But still, there is a grain of truth in all this mouse fuss - otherwise the fuss itself would not exist.

WHY DO THEY KICK YOU OUT?
You can start from two events. Firstly, from the version that journalist Seymour Hersh published on his blog.

According to his column, the reason for the fuss around Zaluzhny was Zaluzhny’s alleged negotiations with representatives of the West on a ceasefire and some version of a truce with Russia. And all this behind Zelensky’s back and without prior discussion with him.

Well, that is, something like Himler in “17 Moments of Spring,” only here Stirlitz found out about everything and told Borman.

It is always difficult to prove such things, but there is nothing incredible in such conversations between Zaluzhny and the West.

Suffice it to recall Zaluzhny’s interview with The Economist, published in November 2023 : “As in the First World War, we have reached a level of technological development that baffles us <...> There will most likely not be a deep and beautiful breakthrough.” And since there won’t be a deadlock, then what? We need to negotiate.

Even if Hersh is mistaken and nothing like this happened, there is a second event, and it definitely happened: Zaluzhny’s article for CNN. Where he talks about the tasks for 2024.

At first glance, these are tasks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine: providing the army with high-tech equipment; a new philosophy of training and conducting combat operations; introduction of new combat capabilities. But if you think about it, all of the above goes far beyond the boundaries of his competence. Tasks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but only the one who is at the head of the state can set them and ensure their implementation.

It turns out that the article itself is already an open application for the Hetman’s mace.

Moreover, there have been conversations about this since the summer of 2023, and they are very much not in favor of Zelensky.

According to the results of a survey by the sociological group “Rating”, Zaluzhny is ahead of Zelensky in the trust rating. Moreover, the option “I completely trust” in relation to Zaluzhny was chosen by 63% of respondents, while only 39% of respondents answered this way in relation to Zelensky.

Trust does not equal votes in elections, therefore (according to the same group “Rating”) Zelensky in the second round of hypothetical elections gains more votes than Zaluzhny (42% versus 40%). But it should be more than 50%! Besides, 42/40 is practically parity. And that means Zelensky has an equal rival. And all this against the backdrop of the fact that Zaluzhny actually didn’t even mention his presidential ambitions officially.

The only question is, what did Zaluzhny do in order to equal Zelensky in popularity, becoming a threat to him? As often happens, Zelensky himself created the Zaluzhny problem.

WHY THEY LOVE YOU
To begin with, let us remember that it was Zelensky who made Zaluzhny commander-in-chief in 2021 on the advice of the head of his Office Andriy Yermak.

Secondly, the events of 2022 played to Zaluzhny’s advantage. Paradoxical as it may seem, the first year of the war was much more successful for the Ukrainian Armed Forces than the second. After all, then they managed (as a result of battles or retreat of the Russian Armed Forces in the Kyiv, Kharkov, and Kherson regions) to recapture 40 thousand square meters. km of territory. While in 2023 it will be a little more than 300 sq. km.

Thirdly, against the backdrop of the successes of 2022, Zaluzhny has turned from a general and commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into a kind of symbol.

Musician Oisho BTZ dedicated a musical composition to him, and graffiti “God and Zaluzhny are with us” began to appear in cities (with Zelensky, we note, no such graffiti appeared). Ukrainian patriotic public pages distribute memes with Zaluzhny (mostly adaptations of memes about Chuck Norris).

At the same time, Zaluzhny himself is not very active in the media. The same Budanov is confidently ahead of him in the number of interviews distributed, although the position of head of intelligence does not imply publicity.

Zaluzhny’s appearance, origin, and career all play into his advantage.

Unlike Zelensky, Zaluzhny is a stereotypical “average Ukrainian”: a broad-faced, gentle joker. If you didn’t know that he was the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, he could easily be mistaken for the owner of a tire repair shop in Novograd-Volynsky, where he is from. After school - technical school, then - Odessa Institute of Ground Forces, the path from platoon commander to commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He has soared high, but at the same time he is understandable and close to any Ukrainian. Closer than the artist and KVN member Zelensky.

Apparently, all these factors inflated Zaluzhny’s rating as a political figure. Zelensky himself completed the job.

According to a survey by KIIS, another Ukrainian sociological center, 72% of respondents would react negatively to the news about Zaluzhny being replaced by another general. Only 2% would support such a replacement.

Although this is not even the main thing.

The resignation frees Zaluzhny and not only relieves him of responsibility, but also deprives Zelensky’s Office of the opportunity to intrigue, putting negative pressure on the commander for military failures.

Somewhat reminiscent of the story of Klitschko’s election as mayor of Kyiv. As a politician and city manager, he was an absolute zero. And all the technologists asked him to do during the campaign: “Be quiet.” His personal rating was enough to win, and the main task was not to destroy this rating with stupid statements.

Zaluzhny will have approximately the same task: to remain silent and maintain his rating until the elections. And any disadvantages of Zelensky will be a plus for Zaluzhny. However, at one time Zelensky himself also received the presidential post. If he had frankly told voters what he was really going to do as president, he would still have remained a popular comedian.

Link

Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

What kind of world does Zaluzhny want?

2024-02-04

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Andrey Dobrov

[REGNUM] We talk so much about General Zaluzhny, whom Zelensky wants to fire. They say that the general has bypassed him politically and can become the new president. But no one really knows what Zaluzhny himself wants. Does he want to remain commander in chief? Or does he really want to be fired? Who is Zaluzhny?

The son of a Soviet officer, he went on military business. The ATO began on May 22. Ukrainian troops were sent to Donbass. Zaluzhny becomes deputy commander of sector “C” in July. The appointment took place under Poroshenko.

And then the first puncture. In August there were battles for Ilovaisk. Kyiv troops are surrounded and defeated. In September, the Minsk Agreements were signed on 1.2015, Ukrainian troops lost the airport in Donetsk. Then the encirclement in Debaltsevo. After this, Poroshenko signed Minsk Protocol 2.

January 2017, new military actions. Zaluzhny receives the rank of major general. Becomes first deputy commander of the operational command "West". Then, in 1919, he was the commander of the troops of the operational command “North”. That is, he was responsible, for example, for repelling an attack not only from Russia, but also from Belarus. As we remember, at the very beginning of the military operation, servicemen of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this area fled from there.

On July 27, 2021, he was appointed Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. And already in October, the Ukrainian Armed Forces launched an offensive in the Donbass. And when the military operation began, he tried to lead the entire front. But even Russia’s not-largest army quickly occupied vast territories. Ours were withdrawn only at the time of signing the Istanbul Agreements. That is, there were no military actions in the Kyiv region. And ours retreated from Kharkov and Kherson on their own.

The problem in the command of the Ukrainian army was described in his blog by military medic Gleb Bityukov:

“In the Ukrainian army, it is not those who are proactive and strive for development who reach the top, but those who are literate, drink no more than others and wash themselves at least sometimes.”

And also: “There are no better, more motivated people anymore. They either died or left the army in one way or another.”

And one more thing: “How many cauldrons did the Ukrainian army create during the 10 years of war? How many people received officer and, in addition, general ranks?”

Indeed, look, while the war was going on with the rebels in Donbass and Lugansk, Zaluzhny’s career simply flourished. But at the time of the battle with Russian troops, all he could hope for was constant mobilizations and supplies of Western weapons. And yet he began to lose. Despite the fact that he studied precisely on Russian military thought.

September 2022. Zaluzhny, in an interview with Time, said that he “grew up on Russian military doctrine” and keeps in his office the collected works of the head of the Russian General Staff, Gerasimov.

“I read everything he ever wrote... He is the smartest of people, and my expectations from him were enormous,” Zaluzhny added. He probably felt that he had made a big mistake in his idol. But Gerasimov had not yet become the leader of the troops in the Northern Military District. He became one in January 2023. And a few months later, in May 2023, during a conversation with a reporter, Zaluzhny unexpectedly stated that he considered the Russian general and head of the General Staff of the Russian Army Valery Gerasimov to be an “unpredictable and strong enemy,” again admitting that he was reading treatises on the military tactics of his colleague and complaining that he does not publish new books: “He is strong, cunning, unpredictable. This is a strong enemy, which we, the military, also need to respect - for the sake of victory."

But the summer counteroffensive fizzled out and there was no victory. Zaluzhny, in an interview with the Economist magazine, said that Kyiv is exhausted. That there are no shells, and the West does not want to supply them. In December 2023, the media wrote that American journalist Seymour Hersh, citing a Washington official, said that Gerasimov and Zaluzhny were negotiating. Moreover, Zaluzhny does not inform Zelensky. They were allegedly talking about a peace treaty with Ukraine, where the regions we occupied would remain with Russia. Zaluzhny demanded consent for Ukraine to join NATO, albeit without the deployment of troops and weapons.

In reality, Hersh wrote it a little differently.

Hersh is a slender reed to support anything, let alone an argument, but do go on.

Zaluzhny negotiated with American and other Western officials. But it’s about how to end the war and sign a truce.

And this was definitely not a secret for Zelensky. Last year, CIA Director William Burns allegedly made a secret trip to Kiev and personally warned Zelensky that the United States knew about his corruption. They know that Zelensky takes huge sums of Western money.

As we see, lost battles do not change anything in the careers of the Kyiv leaders. But negotiations behind the back of the Kyiv president... And even with those officials with whom Zelensky thought he was on short terms...

And what’s interesting is that if you look at the Western media, you can see how they actually keep Zaluzhny as the main speaker. After the article in the Economist, the media immediately began writing that the counteroffensive had failed. Then they began to write about the fact that Russia needed to agree on a truce along the front line. And information about Zaluzhny’s resignation brought Victoria Nuland to Kiev. That is, for the United States and its allies, Zaluzhny is the main informant and the main character.

Not Zelensky.

In theory, Zaluzhny’s resignation deprives Ukraine of some military component. And even Budanov, who was going to be appointed commander-in-chief, is not inspiring. He has already stated that Kyiv will launch a new offensive in the spring after Russian troops finish their winter campaign, but the West does not seem to be inspired by this.

Perhaps the United States wants to remove Zelensky altogether and put Zaluzhny in his place. But does Zaluzhny himself want this?

It seems to me that in reality he wants something completely different. He plans to continue serving in NATO. He needs Zelensky to fire him. And then he lost. Then Zaluzhny will remain the only military leader who actually fought with the Russians. And this may work for European officials. He will become a most valuable military adviser. With a good salary, a house in Brussels and so on.

It is quite possible that Zaluzhny does not want Ukraine to win or lose the war. He wants peace for himself.

Link

Europe

Poland's Obstruction In Nord Stream Pipeline Probe Raises Alarm For Investigators

2024-01-11

Lots of allegations, apparently no solid evidence thus far.

[ZeroHedge] At this point, one might be forgiven for thinking that the Nord Stream pipelines sabotage is already ancient history. After all, mainstream media and prime time TV news coverage has by and large 'moved on' as soon as it became clear that Russia had nothing to do with it.

At this point, the consensus even among Moscow's vehement enemies is that the September 26, 2022 series of blasts which disabled the Russia to Germany NS-1 and NS-2 natural gas pipelines had Ukrainian and/or Western involvement. While MSM sources have favored the theory that it was a mystery group of pro-Ukraine operatives on a small yacht, legendary investigative journalist Seymour Hersh has reported that it was a CIA and US Navy special operation with help from Norwegian intelligence services.

Since then, the ongoing investigation by Germany, Denmark and Sweden into the details of what happened has continued to yield very interesting, incremental developments. The latest was revealed in a Wall Street Journal report this week, and involves apparent Polish obstruction of the probe, which has been deemed by officials to be highly suspicious.

Reports WSJ, "Polish officials have resisted cooperating with an international probe into the sabotage of the Nord Stream natural-gas pipelines and failed to disclose potentially crucial evidence, according to European investigators working on the case."

Cover-up?... you don't say:

Those Polish officials have been slow to provide information and withheld key evidence about the alleged saboteurs’ movements on Polish soil, investigators said. They are now hoping the new government in Warsaw, which took office in December, will help shed light on the attack.

European investigators have long believed the attack was launched from Ukraine via Poland. But they say Warsaw’s failure to fully cooperate has made it hard to establish whether the attack happened with or without the former Polish government’s knowledge, according to senior officials.

And further, "Some senior European officials say they are considering approaching the office of Donald Tusk, Poland’s new prime minister, for help in investigating the biggest act of sabotage on the European continent since World War II."

According to more from the report:

Investigators haven’t offered evidence linking the Polish government to the explosions and say that even if some Polish officials were involved, it could have been without the knowledge of the political leadership. Yet they say efforts by Polish officials to hinder their investigation have made them increasingly suspicious of Warsaw’s role and motives.

Link

The Grand Turk

'Against all odds.' Erdogan emerged victorious from all battles in 2023

2024-01-02

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kamran Hasanov

[REGNUM] If we talk about the history of Turkey as a whole, then, probably, none of the events that happened in 2023 will compare with the fact that the country celebrated its 100th anniversary. This is a long time. Considering that the very preservation of the current borders was in doubt due to the Treaty of Sèvres , even supporters of Pan-Osmanism should be satisfied with 780 thousand square kilometers.

The outgoing year for Turkey was largely built around three pillars: presidential and parliamentary elections, the financial crisis and the stabilization of relations with the outside world.

RELATIONS WITH THE WEST ARE STABLE
Unlike previous ones, the 2023 elections have proven to be very difficult for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP). After all, not only traditional oppositionists from the Republican People's Party (CHP), but also former comrades Ahmet Davutoglu and Ali Babacan spoke out against him in May .

In parliament, the AKP and its junior partner, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), were opposed by a coalition of six parties. But Erdogan survived, although victory was given to him only in the second round. The success of his party coalition was even more confident.

Erdogan's triumph was achieved against all odds. Despite the financial crisis, the fall of the lira and double-digit inflation. Despite the largest earthquake in the 21st century in the east, which claimed the lives of 30 thousand citizens. And, of course, despite foreign pressure.

Western media and politicians did not hide the fact that they wished the victory of the secular opposition, which would save the West from Erdogan’s constant blackmail on issues of migration and NATO expansion. What can I say, even Joe Biden, back in his election campaign, announced the goal of removing the Turkish president through elections.

Türkiye is too strong to ignore, much less isolate.

Having understood these realities, the West was forced to accept and recognize Erdogan’s victory. American credit institutions upgraded Turkey's rating, and the economy began to breathe again. Turkey's GDP looked quite decent due to export growth. Its rise in the third quarter accelerated to 5.9% and turned out to be better than forecast.

Partly, there is a role for the West in this.

After all, at the July NATO summit, Erdogan unexpectedly supported Sweden’s membership in NATO and even invited Ukraine there - even Biden and Olaf Scholz did not dare to do the latter .

Well-known journalist Seymour Hersh

...forever chasing the feeling of getting a prestigious award for whatever it was he got right that first time, except ever since he’s been neglecting the getting right part. But he hates America, which is all that matters for some people...

reported that Biden promised Turkey $11-13 billion “for Sweden.” The information is confidential, but what is known for sure is Biden’s agreement to transfer F-16 fighter jets to Ankara. However, both issues - the transfer of the F-16 and Sweden's entry into NATO - are still blocked by the American and Turkish parliaments.

For the sake of the economy, Erdogan made another concession to the globalists - he allowed his Central Bank to raise the key rate. As a result, inflation in the country fell from 80 percent to less than 40 percent.

RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA ON THE RISE
Turkey’s relations with Russia this year were as pragmatic as in all recent years. Trade turnover grew and reached a record $60 billion. The Akkuyu NPP project is being successfully implemented - the first reactor is already ready for launch.

On September 5, the long-awaited meeting between Vladimir Putin and Erdogan took place in Sochi - an important moment given that Putin has seen few foreign leaders in the past two years. Erdogan showed understanding and came to Russia himself.

A certain chill in relations appeared after the NATO summit. In addition, in addition to agreeing to expand the alliance, Turkey gave the “Azovites” to Ukraine (“Azov” is an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation).

But joint projects - trade, a new nuclear power plant in Snopa, a gas hub, “synchronizing watches” in Transcaucasia and the Middle East - maintain a partnership level of relations.

True, Russia refused to extend the grain deal, which Erdogan strongly insisted on. But at the same time, in March, for the sake of his victory in the elections, Russia already extended the deal by 60 days.

Due to the focus on internal problems, post-earthquake recovery and efforts to rehabilitate the economy, Turkey had less and less energy for an active foreign policy this year.

If at the initial stage of the NWO it was Ankara that seized the initiative from everyone in mediation, now it has serious competitors.

The Saudis held their summit in Jeddah, Xi Jinping proposed a 12-point formula, and African countries, India and Brazil are coming forward with peace initiatives.

RELATIONS IN THE REGION ARE SUCCESSFUL
Where Erdogan's success is most convincing is in the Middle East.

This year, relations with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which had been shaken due to the events in Syria and Libya, were finally restored. Immediately after winning the elections, Erdogan went to Abu Dhabi. UAE President Emir Mohammed bin Zayed warmly received his colleague and concluded a deal with him worth more than $50 billion. As part of that tour, the Turkish president visited Saudi Arabia, which contributed $5 billion to the Turkish Central Bank.

Relations with Egypt are also being restored. In November, amid events in Gaza, Erdoğan met again with President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi . Erdogan’s relations with Egypt were even more strained than with the UAE and KSA, since the Turkish leader supported Al-Sisi’s direct opponents in the person of the Muslim Brotherhood (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation).

The attitude towards Hamas in the KSA, UAE and Egypt, although not as positive as that of Erdogan’s party, still the tragedy and death of thousands of Palestinians creates a kind of Muslim unity, which brings Turkey even closer to its former rivals.

The return to the “zero problems” policy with neighbors was also taking place on other fronts.

Erdogan recently visited Athens, the second visit by a Turkish president to Greece in 70 years. The two countries have been on the brink of war in recent years over disputed islands in the Aegean Sea, exploration in the Mediterranean and Cyprus. But the leaders found the strength to go to peace.

A certain positivity can be observed this year in relations with Iran. Tehran has softened its tone towards Ankara's ally Baku. Although at the beginning of 2023, there was a hint of conflict on Iran’s northern borders after an attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran.

Iran has come to terms with the defeat of Armenia and the complete transfer of control over Karabakh to Azerbaijan. Tehran and Baku agreed to create their own “Zangezur Corridor”. In October, a meeting was held in Tehran at the level of the foreign ministers of Iran, Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan and Armenia. After the creation of the 3+3 format, fears of Iran's isolation in the region were dispelled.

Iran also did not like the fact that Turkey was restoring ties with Damascus through the mediation of Moscow. But there is progress here too.

In May, Moscow hosted the foreign ministers of four countries, including Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Abdollahian . Against the backdrop of the Gaza crisis, Turkey and Iran have become closer, as they are more active in supporting Hamas than others. However, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi still canceled his visit to Ankara. According to rumors, due to its demands on the Turkish side to more actively support Palestine.

The resolution of the Karabakh issue contributes to the rapprochement between Turkey and Armenia. In June, Erdogan confirmed that he would continue efforts to normalize bilateral relations.

If it were not for the war in Gaza, there would not be a single country with which Turkey would not have found a common language this year. However, Erdogan could not look indifferently at the death of more than 20 thousand Palestinians in Gaza and the defeat of his ideological ally Hamas.

He canceled his visit to Israel, declared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu a war criminal and assembled an army of international lawyers to bring the leaders of the Jewish state to justice.

How’s that going?

Thus, based on the results of the past year, the economic crisis in Turkey has been partially brought under control. At the same time, Turkey needs to spend half of its GDP to eliminate the consequences of the earthquake and other natural disasters. Relations with the West have stabilized somewhat, with Russia they are progressing, and neighboring countries, with the exception of Israel, no longer sharpen their grudge against Erdogan.

The main domestic political result of the year is Erdogan’s confident retention of power.

Of course. All his possible rivals are in prison or fled, and his people aren’t having babies because who would want to in that totalitarian society he created?

Link

Government Corruption

Journalist Hersh reveals new details about the Nord Stream explosion

2023-12-23

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

[Regnum] American journalist Seymour Hersh

...often wrong, always certain — he’s been trying to recapture the feeling since his first big story broke. And he hates America, so that’s a plus for his followers...

made another statement - the United States began preparing to undermine Nord Stream long before the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. He wrote about this in an article for the American online platform Substack.

In his opinion, the initial goal could have been to contain Russia, but the date of September 2022 suggests that the sabotage was probably reoriented against Germany, which was considered a “weak link” in the coalition supporting Ukraine.

Hersh believes that the United States, weeks before the start of the special operation, ordered the American team in Norway to continue working and find a way to bring it to completion.

The journalist claims that the sabotage was prepared for the end of May, but US President Joe Biden postponed it without explanation.

“Biden’s order came at the end of September. Three of four pipeline branches were destroyed after explosive devices were detonated by a low-frequency sonar device,” Seymour Hersh wrote.

He also suggested that Biden's timing was aimed at German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

According to intelligence sources, the head of the White House feared that Scholz, whose voters were hesitant in supporting Kiev, could “slack” before the approaching winter and he decided that keeping his people warm and his industry prosperous was more important than helping Ukraine in fight against Russia.

As Regnum reported, the situation in European countries is heating up, this time due to the intention of the Ukrainian authorities to turn off the “gas tap” from Russia. This means that Europeans will inevitably face many problems.

Kyiv will not renew the agreement on the transit of Russian gas to Europe, which expires at the end of 2024. The head of the Ukrainian company Naftogaz, Alexey Chernyshov, announced this on October 29.

The transit contract between Russia and Ukraine concluded in 2019 is valid until December 31, 2024. Currently, gas transits through Ukraine to the states of Eastern Europe, primarily to Slovakia, Hungary and Austria.

Earlier, the head of the German Wintershall Dea, Mario Mehren, said that stopping the transit of Russian gas to Europe through the territory of Ukraine would at least lead to an increase in gas prices. There are still a number of countries in Europe that receive significant volumes of gas from Russia, he recalled.

Link

Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

The version of the negotiations between Zaluzhny and Gerasimov called considered a conspiracy theory

2023-12-03

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] At present, it is unrealistic to assume that the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Army Valery Gerasimov and the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny are conducting some kind of secret negotiations on the possible fixation of borders. The head of the department of political science and sociology of the Russian Economic University named after IA Regnum told this to a correspondentPlekhanov, expert of the Association of Military Political Scientists Andrey Koshkin.

Earlier, journalist Seymour Hersh said that, according to information given to him by anonymous American officials, Zaluzhny and Gerasimov secretly began serious negotiations on concluding peace between Russia and Ukraine.

“This information does not inspire confidence. It is unrealistic to assume that Zaluzhny and Gerasimov will somehow secretly reach an agreement and sign some kind of document. But communications through the military are possible. At all times they were somehow provided for, mainly by intelligence officers. And here this is also possible, but only in the sense of tactical influence on the situation on the line of combat contact. But not political,” Koshkin said.

He emphasized that communications at the military level are normal.

“Even on the battlefield, they already know each other by their call signs. Sometimes they talk, and at different levels. Including at the level of platoon commanders, battalions, and so on . Most likely, some private issues may be discussed, which Western media interpreted as attempts by Zaluzhny and Gerasimov to agree on ending the conflict. It’s hard to believe that the military of the two countries are already preparing to sign some documents. No, we will not sign anything with the illegitimate government,” Koshkin explained.

The political scientist emphasized that the situation is now in a state of uncertainty. And in such a situation there are always a lot of options, mostly conspiracy theories.

Earlier, IA Regnum reported that, according to Hersh, peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are ongoing, despite the objections of the White House and the head of the Kiev regime, Vladimir Zelensky . According to the American journalist, the driving force behind this dialogue was the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny and the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov.

If Hersh is to be believed, the negotiators are allegedly discussing the possibility of fixing the borders along the current line of contact, that is, with the preservation of Crimea and new regions within Russia - the DPR and LPR, as well as the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. In exchange for the territory, Russia will supposedly not object to Ukraine's possible entry into NATO, but with a clear commitment that the alliance will not station its troops or offensive weapons there.

There is also information that Ukrainian residents have begun to trust Zaluzhny more than Zelensky. Experts noted that the decline in Ukrainians’ trust in Zelensky began in July 2023. At the same time, as follows from the survey results, if presidential elections in the country were to take place in the near future with the participation of Zelensky and Zaluzhny, none of the candidates would be able to win in the first round of voting.

Link

Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

United States reveals secret negotiations at the level of Gerasimov and Zaluzhny on peace

2023-12-02

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

Hersh. Shoulda known.

I suspect Col. General Gerasimov has his hands full being Shoigu's chief of staff.
[Regnum] Secret peace negotiations are being conducted by Moscow and Kiev at the level of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Valery Zaluzhny and the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valery Gerasimov . American journalist, Pulitzer Prize winner Seymour Hersh

...often wrong, always certain — he’s been trying to recapture the feeling since his first big story broke. And he hates America, so that’s a plus for his followers...

made this statement in his article on his blog on Substack.

The journalist announced secret negotiations that are being conducted bypassing the head of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky, citing anonymous sources in the American administration and Americans familiar with the situation in the Ukrainian government.

“The driving force behind these negotiations was not Washington or Moscow, not [US President Joseph] Biden or [Russian President Vladimir] Putin , but the two senior generals who are running the war, Valery Gerasimov for Russia and Valery Zaluzhny for Ukraine,” Hersh explained.

According to Hersh, citing a high-ranking official, Zaluzhny was pushed to the decision to negotiate peace with Russia by certain key figures on the American side. At the same time, Zelensky was made to understand that negotiations would be held regardless of his wishes.

According to the journalist, the agreement discussed at the negotiations assumes that the Russian-Ukrainian border will be fixed along the current front line. The Republic of Crimea, as well as the territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics (DPR and LPR), Kherson and Zaporozhye regions will remain Russian, but in return it is assumed that Russia will not object to Ukraine joining NATO without the right to station troops and offensive weapons of the alliance on its territory.

Earlier, IA Regnum reported that, as political scientist Alexander Asafov, a member of the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation , said, the West is not ready to end the Ukrainian conflict, therefore the head of the Kiev regime Zelensky continues to actively deny the possibility of an early truce with Moscow.

The Ukrainian leader, in an interview with The Sun magazine, said that he is not ready to sit down at the negotiating table with Russia now. He acknowledged the difficult situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the battlefield, but the head of the Kyiv regime flatly refused to enter into a peace treaty with Moscow.

Link

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