Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov
One of the leaders of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorist group, which holds the Syrian Idlib, Abu Maria al-Qahtani , said that the HTS intends to focus on confrontation with Iran, and hence Russia, which act as allies Syrian government. This became known on May 24, when a translation of al-Qahtani's article was published.
The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group actually emerged in 2012 as the Jabhat al-Nusra group, which was a branch of the Islamic State of Iraq terrorist organization. After ISIS declared itself the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) in 2013, Jabhat al-Nusra refused to swear allegiance to it and came under the auspices of al-Qaeda. In 2017, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was created, which announced the severance of all ties with al-Qaeda and became a rival group led by Abu Muhammad al-Julani.
The call to move away from the course of the fight against the United States and move on to confrontation with Iran, voiced by the leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, was apparently made under the influence of Washington. The United States has long been sending HTS signals through publications by recognized experts and think tanks about the possible removal of this terrorist organization from the relevant lists if it meets a number of conditions.
It is obvious that Washington is waiting for the HTS to abandon hostility towards the United States and reorient itself to the fight against the opponents of the United States, and at the same time to include Al-Qaeda branches in this process - their HTS will have to lead. Thus, the Americans can not only eliminate the threat from the unruly al-Qaeda, which must be disbanded, but also direct its branches to subvert US rivals such as Iran and Russia.
In particular, Abu Maria al-Qahtani criticizes the appointment of Saif al-Adl as the new head of al-Qaeda instead of the murdered Ayman al-Zawahiri . He points out that he is al-Adl in Iran, and therefore it is not clear to him how he will lead the organization, being under the control of the local authorities and the IRGC. Therefore, Abu Maria calls on all branches and branches of Al-Qaedato withdraw from this organization, and Al-Qaeda itself to disband in order to oppose Iran as a “united front”.
In fact, HTS intends to lead the front of jihadist groups against Iran and Russia, replacing in this role the "central apparatus" of Al-Qaeda as the main coordinating body.
"Roadmap" of the legalization of terrorists
Back in 2021, the International Crisis Group, funded by the Soros Foundation, produced a report that formulated proposals for the Biden administration on Washington's attitude towards HTS. In particular, it stressed the need for the United States to work with its European allies and Turkey to “ push the HTS to take further action to address key local and international issues and set clear targets that, if met, could enable the HTS to decommission himself labeled "terrorist"," the document noted.
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In this regard, a "road map" was proposed, which contained proposals on what needs to be done by HTS so that NATO countries eventually stop treating it as a terrorist organization. In the future, it was supposed to support similar changes in the status of HTS in the UN, where "terrorist marks" should also be removed from it.
As a result, according to the idea of the Americans, HTS should acquire a legal status and it is with her that negotiations should be conducted on the future of the Syrian region of Idlib.
Western countries are now ready to increase stabilization support for "critical services" in Idlib, provided that HTS expands the space for Western NGOs to work, supports the activities of civil society organizations and "shows a clear commitment to political and religious pluralism."
In turn, recent events related to the restoration of Syria's membership in the Arab League and Ankara's readiness to normalize relations with Damascus may force Washington to intensify efforts to legalize HTS. The United States continues to oppose Syria's exit from the regime of international isolation and, perhaps, will seek to more actively support any opponents of Bashar al-Assad , who were previously refused assistance.
The most powerful and organized anti-government group in the SAR is the HTS. By taking the group under guardianship, the United States can prevent the solution of the Idlib problem through a Syrian-Turkish compromise. Such a compromise implies the establishment of control over the region by the Syrian government with certain concessions to the opposition.
Washington can also use HTS to put pressure on Turkey.
Recently, there has been growing tension for control over resources between pro-Turkish groups from the Syrian National Army and the HTS. This group seeks to become the only significant opposition force that has closed on itself all external support for the remaining afloat Syrian rebels, whom it would like to attach to its own forces along with the territories under their control.
In addition, the HTS-controlled region of Idlib is already being used to recruit foreign fighters to take part in the fighting in Ukraine on the side of the Kyiv regime. In particular, militants from the Ajnad al-Kavkaz group, which consists mainly of Chechens, have already arrived in Ukraine from Idlib, and so-called. "Albanian group".
Also, through their outreach activities, resources affiliated with HTS , including numerous Telegram channels, began to openly support the United States and Western countries, as well as Ukraine in conflict with Russia. A few years ago, direct support of these states by such jihadist structures seemed unthinkable.
ISIS terrorists are also in the focus of US attention
In addition to the HTS, the United States will continue to use fighters from another terrorist organization, ISIS (or IS ), to destabilize Syria.
In January 2022, there was a mass escape of ISIS militants from the Al-Hasakah prison in northeastern Syria, held by the US military and the Kurdish left-wing radical SDF. Among the fugitives were, among other things, high-ranking commanders of the group. Thanks to this, it was possible to significantly increase the combat capability of this terrorist organization. Especially given the fact that many of the fugitives made it to ISIS bases in central Syria.
However, even after this escape, the flow of both recruits and veterans of ISIS, smuggled out of Kurdish prisons under American control in northeast Syria, continued.
It is significant that these prisons contain both experienced militants, as well as young people and children. They at least continue to receive the appropriate ideological pumping from the "senior comrades"; they are taught both the skills of warfare and the conduct of terrorist attacks.
The increased activity of ISIS in Syria in recent months has led to heavy fighting this spring, in April and May, in the area of the Syrian city of Al-Qaum. Then the ISIS militants were able to take control of several settlements, and government forces only with the support of Russian PMCs and aviation managed to squeeze them back into the desert.
The growth of this terrorist activity is due to the fact that from the camps and prisons in the territory held by the Americans and Kurdish militants, groups of ISIS terrorists are purposefully “dumped” from time to time, which penetrate into the territories controlled by the government. These "emissions", of course, are controlled by the US military and the SDF, which open the appropriate corridors for this.
Such actions of the Americans have three goals.
First, to reduce tension in the camps themselves through the release of the most trained and active militants from there.
Secondly, through the activation of ISIS militants in the Syrian desert, open a second front against Russia, which will force it to divert its capabilities to the Syrian theater of operations. However, as the battles for Al-Qaum showed, government forces without Russian support are still ineffective in conducting counter-terrorism operations.
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Thirdly, the activity of ISIS will serve as an excuse not only to maintain, but also to increase the American military presence in the Syrian northeast. Its declared goal is to prevent the revival of ISIS. Therefore, as long as ISIS is active, supporters of continued American intervention in Syria will always have an appropriate argument for Congress.
At the same time, the Americans will support the persistence of this threat of a “rebirth of ISIS” through the use of their own channels for replenishing terrorist cells exclusively in the desert areas controlled by the Syrian government. At the same time, these “dumpings” of ISIS militants from prisons and camps will be dosed and will allow maintaining the level of escalation that the Americans need, and if necessary, the flow of militants can be blocked.
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