• RESETTLEMENT OF REFUGEES ALONG DURAND LINE RUNNING INTO TROUBLE – As previously reported, the Taliban’s decision to resettle the mainly Pashtun ethnic groups from Pakistan in Khost Province to other parts of the country is not being received well by the refugees. The refugees claim they spent significant time and resources to build the homes they currently occupy in the Gurbaz District and that moving would unsettle their families and cause extreme economic hardships. Many have told local Afghan journalists that they are ‘never leaving’. Officials in Khost say the plan was formulated to appease Pakistan’s fears over the terror threat from Afghanistan. The locals in the Province see the move as a sign of weakness on the part of Kabul. While no official date for the start of relocating families has been announced, it seems the refugee groups are already organizing and planning to protest the forced displacement.


• US SECRETARY OF STATE RECOGNIZES TALIBAN’S EFFORTS FIGHTING ISIS – The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, gave a nod to the Taliban for taking the fight against ISIS-K seriously. His comments fell short of praising the Taliban but did recognize the success they have had in 2022-23. Several international news outlets have continued to speculate that the US is somehow providing intelligence to the Taliban in order to reduce the threat of ISIS-K. However, no proof has been provided of such cooperation to date. The US Secretary of State reiterated the US stance of undertaking unilateral action should a valid threat to the US or its interests be identified in Afghanistan.


• MINISTER OF THE INTERIOR SHIFTS MESSAGING SLIGHTLY – During a visit to Jawzjan Province, Sirajuddin Haqqani seemed to avoid any hint of criticism of the cabal in Kandahar and focused on a message of unity. In his remarks, the Minister stressed that the Taliban regime needed to build trust with the population before inclusivity could be realized. The remarks differ from some earlier statements which were perceived to be critical of the ‘old guard’ fundamentalists. After the speech, the Minister visited the site where Taliban prisoners had been rounded up in 2001 and were said to have been killed by gunfire and/or suffocation by forces said to be loyal to General Rashid Dostum.

• PAKISTANI ARMY SHOULD BE HEADING BACK TO THE BARRACKS TODAY – After requests by Provincial leaders to recall the Army units after the 9 May riots broke out. Most areas report that calm has returned to the streets and the soldiers are no longer necessary. The most immediate effect will probably be a reduction in the number of search and detention operations in Islamabad. As the police units are forced to resume their pre-riot duties, manpower limitations should reduce the number of those available to focus on the Afghan refugee population.


• TROPICAL CYCLONE BIJARPOY CONTINUES TREK NORTHWARDS – Bijarpoy continues to move through the Arabian Sea along a Northeast track. While some models show it could shift to a Northwestern heading and could make landfall in Sindh Province, the majority expect it to lose intensity before reaching Pakistan’s coastline. Regardless, heavy rains and strong winds in Sindh (along the coast) on the evening of 13 June.

• MASS GRAVE DISCOVERED IN KANDAHAR — The Taliban announced the discovery of a mass grave with at least 16 bodies near Spin Boldak in Kandahar Province. Several purported relatives of the victims claim that they were killed by the previous regime’s security forces. Local leaders have called on the Taliban and the international community for an impartial investigation.


• TALIBAN ACCUSED OF EXPORTING TERRORISM — The National Resistance Front (NRF) released a story claiming that the Taliban were preparing to send 16 senior leaders of various militant groups across the borders to Central Asian countries. Some of the leaders are al-Qaeda affiliates, while others are ethnically tied to Uzbek, Tajik, and Uyghur militant groups that are already established in several neighboring countries. The claims come after several nations in the region expressed concerns at the UN General Assembly about the potential of “exported terrorism”. There is no hard evidence of the NRF’s claim, and it is possible that the NRF are taking advantage of these concerns to drum up anti-Taliban sentiment for their cause.


• NO BEARD, NO PUBLIC SERVICE EXAM IN PAKTIKA — Taliban proctors turned away beardless candidates who were attempting to take exams for positions in the directorate of public health, effectively barring candidates without beards from public service.


• THE DOSTUM EFFECT — After Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum called for outright civil war in Afghanistan last week, several GDI (Taliban Intelligence Agency) agents were seen interviewing some of Dostum’s past associates and colleagues in Herat. Some may be under arrest, but it is not currently known how many have been arrested and on what charges. At-risk Afghans who had relations with the Marshal should take precautions.


• TALIBAN PREPARE FOR PANJSHIR OFFENSIVE — The Taliban are reportedly staging an offensive in Panjshir’s Paryan district with several hundred fighters and approximately 70 vehicles. Sources indicate that their targets are two NRF positions in the district. In potentially related reporting, over one hundred vehicles were seen being taken out of Bagram Air Base on Monday evening under heavy Taliban escort. Their destination is not known, but it seems likely that they are being sent to the North to take part in offensive operations. We assess this reporting as accurate, and violence may be imminent.

• HOUSE SEARCHES IN MAIDAN WARDAK — According to local sources, the Taliban have been conducting house-to-house searches for several days in Kajab village in Markaz Behsood district in Maidan Wardak province. Multiple residents have been detained and tortured after being accused of supporting Resistance forces and knowing the location of weapons.


• MIXED SIGNALS ON GIRLS’ EDUCATION — Reportedly the Taliban have recently been preventing women from attending universities, which was previously officially permitted. Most recently, 1,000 women were barred from 3 technical institutes in Balkh. Confusingly, the Taliban reportedly also recently allowed a private coding school for 350 girls to reopen in Herat.


• DOSTUM CALLS FOR RESISTANCE — Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum, an Afghan warlord and Uzbek military leader who played a key role in the Northern Alliance, has once again called for nationwide resistance across Afghanistan. He claims he has intelligence that suggests the Taliban plan to resettle 2 million “people without identity” in the Northern and Northeastern provinces of Afghanistan and warned that minority culture would be eradicated under Taliban rule. It is believed that he is referring in part to the forced land redistribution program in Takhar, Badakhshan, and Herat where Pashtun nomads are resettled in locals’ homes. The former marshal went on to claim that mobilization of former military personnel and leaders was underway.


• DEFECTION RUMORS — A source in the Ministry of Defense claims that the Minister is investigating reports that 60 Taliban fighters defected to the National Resistance Front in Badakhshan province, taking 15 vehicles and all their military equipment with them. The source stated the Ministry had not confirmed the report, but all communications between the unit and local Taliban leaders in Badakhshan had ceased at midnight.


• RESTAURANT BLAST KILLS SEVERAL — A blast was reported at a restaurant in western Kabul, killing 3-7 and injuring 13 more. The explosion took place in the Dehmazang neighborhood. Some early reports suggested a terrorist attack, but later reporting indicates that a propane tank may have exploded in an accident. Details are not yet clear.


• EGYPTIAN DIPLOMATS LEAVE KABUL — Egyptian diplomats are pulling out of Afghanistan over a reported rift between the two countries concerning property in Kabul. 8 Egyptian diplomats and staff have left.


• RESISTANCE FIGHTERS SURRENDER — An armed Resistance group reputedly surrendered in Northern Samangan province. 5 fighters were witnessed handing over their weapons to the Taliban and signing an oath to never take up arms against the regime in the future. It is not known which Resistance group the men hail from.


• BLACK MARKET PASSPORT ARRESTS — Sources indicate that 3 people have been arrested in connection with the black market sale of Afghan passports. It is not clear if those arrested worked for the Passport Directorate or not. A source in the Ministry of the Interior claims a large investigation into the unlawful selling of passports is ongoing and will likely lead to many more arrests.


• INTERNET OUTAGES IN IRAN — Several reports have been received that indicate internet services in Iran have been cut because of the nationwide protests currently taking place. At-risk Afghans with family/friends in Iran may experience a loss of communication. We have not verified this information yet.

• THE RESPONSE TO DOSTUM’S CALL — It is not yet clear if Marshal Dostum’s call will carry much weight with the general populace, but it could provoke military actions across a wider front. Taliban bases, checkpoints, and other security-centric facilities will be obvious candidates as Resistance targets. At-risk Afghans should watch for an increase in military actions and be prepared to shelter in place or flee from areas that may see heavy fighting.

From tech contractor in Kabul: "Rashid Dostum (anti-Talib warlord) is paying ANSDF Blackhawk pilots to fly north. $1million/bird. Pilot included."

— Bryan Suits (@darksecretplace) August 13, 2021

Marshal Dostum served as Vice President of Afghanistan from 2014 to 2020.

He has married three times and has four sons and six daughters.

He is also the chairman of National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan party.

In the 2014 presidential elections, Dostum supported President Ashraf Ghani.

In 2016, former Jawzjan governor and ex-member of the National Islamic Movement of Afghanistan, Ahmad Eshchi, claimed that he was also sexually assaulted by Dostum and his bodyguards – while in Dostum's ‘custody.'