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Terror Networks

IS Jihadists Smaller Global Threat than Al-Qaida

2014-09-19

[AnNahar] The Islamic State group poses a smaller global threat than Al-Qaeda despite its recent beheadings of three Westerners, although battle-hardened fighters returning home remain a concern, analysts said on Thursday. U.S. President Barack Obama Jedi mind meld... is gathering an international coalition to fight the jihadist group based across Syria and Iraq following the release of videos showing the murders of two US journalists and a British aid worker. But analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think-tank in London warned against overestimating the threat. "Despite its spectacular acts of violence, including against Westerners, (IS's) short- and medium-term objectives appear to be local and transnational rather than global," the institute said in its annual report. Middle East expert Emile Hokayem told a presser that the IS organization's "very ambitious" goal to create a fully-functioning Islamic state may be at odds with its ability to continue fighting on a number of different fronts. "We shouldn't exaggerate its potency. It is a very serious security threat to the region -- as a global threat it's still limited," he said. "I think the various Al-Qaeda affiliates are probably the more potent ones in terms of global ambitions." Nigel Inkster, the think-tank's director of transnational threats and political risk, confirmed that IS fighters were focused on the "near enemy" unlike Al-Qaeda's "far enemy". "It's not obviously the case that you would see orchestrated attacks against a Western state by the leadership of Islamic State," he said. However, a person who gets all wrapped up in himself makes a mighty small package... Inkster cautioned that individual and small groups of murderous Moslems might launch attacks, highlighting the Frenchie Mehdi Nemmouche who fought in Syria and is the sole suspect in the killing of four people at the Jewish Museum in Brussels in May. Western governments have voiced strong concern about the risks of returning fighters and the IISS report concurred that "galvanised Western jihadis could pose a serious security threat on their return". Inkster added that unlike Western fighters who trained with Al-Qaeda in Pakistain, who had "very little hands-on experience", those returning from Iraq and Syria were "well-trained, disciplined, battle-hardened". Other analysts raised doubts about how the U.S.-led coalition against the IS organization could work. "It's difficult to overstate the disappointment and distrust of Middle Eastern states towards the B.O. regime, which springs directly from the failure to back up the red line over the use of chemical weapons in Syria," said Middle East expert Toby Dodge. He added: "The solution to this lies in empowering and reintegrating the Sunni communities in Iraq and giving some hope to Sunni communities in Syria that change is around the corner."

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Britain

British Islamic radicals flocking to Syria

2013-03-15

Radical British Islamists are heading to Syria in greater numbers than all other theatres of war, a senior British official has said. The numbers of young British Muslims going to fight with extremist groups battling the Syrian regime has risen to the point where the conflict already poses a "major threat" to Britain's stability and security. The official said, "This is a horrific situation that is now on a grave trajectory. We now have more British jihadists going to Syria than all the other areas of conflict, be it Afghanistan, Pakistan or Yemen combined." The government is trying to find ways of isolating jihadist groups in Syria, as Whitehall considers plans to increase aid to rebels, including sending arms. Security experts fear a new generation of radicals intent on a career of jihadist warfare is gaining training and experience of war in Syria. The exodus from British towns and cities is believed to have escalated to levels last seen decades ago when the Bosnian and Afghan conflicts were at their height. Nigel Inkster, the director of transnational threats at the IISS think tank and former deputy head of MI6, said Syria has become a more important battle for young Muslims than insurgencies against Western troops and their allies. He said, "Syria is the increasing focus of jihadist activities especially with Afghanistan winding down and and the conditions in the training areas of tribal Pakistan increasingly difficult as a result of the threat from American drone strikes. "Intelligence and security reports warn Syria could become the crucible of trans-national terrorism in much the same way as the insurgency against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan was in the 1980s."

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Caribbean-Latin America

FARC files 'show ties to Chavez'

2011-05-12

[Al Jazeera] Colombian FARC guerrillas may have tried to assassinate rivals of Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela, and trained his supporters in urban warfare, according to a report examining documents seized from a rebel camp. The study of the files, obtained during a 2008 raid inside Ecuador, also showed that the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia FARC or FARC-EP, is either a Marxist-Leninist revolutionary guerrilla organization or a narco mob based in Colombia. It claims to represent the rural poor in a struggle against Colombia's wealthier classes, and opposes United States influence in Colombia, neo-imperialism, monopolization of natural resources by multinational corporations, and the usual raft of complaints. It funds itself principally through ransom kidnappings, taxation of the drug trade, extortion, shakedowns, and donations. It has lately begun calling itself Bolivarian and is greatly admired by Venezuela's President-for-Life Chavez, who seemingly fantasizes about living in the woods and kidnapping people himself. He provides FARC with safe areas along the border. (FARC) contributed some $400,000 to the election campaign of Rafael Correa, the president of Ecuador. Venezuela's embassy in London questioned the authenticity of the documents published by the British-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), calling them a "dodgy dossier" that could be exploited to sabotage warming ties between the ideologically-opposed neighbours. Correa dismissed the IISS findings as "absolutely false". Accusations have been swirling since Colombian authorities captured computer hard drives belonging to Raul Reyes, a FARC leader, after he and other rebels were killed in an air raid three years ago. Ronald K. Noble, the secretary general of Internpol, said in 2008 that Interpol's team of forensic experts discovered 'no evidence of modification, alteration, addition or deletion' in the user files of any of the seized hardware. "Based on our careful and comprehensive forensic examination of each of the eight seized FARC computer exhibits and on consideration of all the evidence reviewed by our experts, Interpol concludes that there was no tampering with any data on the computer exhibits following their seizure on 1 March 2008 by Colombian authorities," Noble said. 'Authentic confirmation' "A lot of this material has been travelling through the public domain one way or another over the last years but the utility of this dossier is it provides authentic confirmation from the FARC perspective," the IISS' Nigel Inkster told the Rooters news agency. Colombia turned over the complete files to the IISS, an independent think tank, for study after they were confirmed to be genuine by Interpol. The 2008 attack triggered a diplomatic dispute between Alvaro Uribe's conservative government in Colombia and both Ecuador and Venezuela, which escalated when Uribe confronted Chavez with what he said was evidence that Caracas had harboured and supported rebels. Ties have improved dramatically since the election of Juan Manuel Santos, Colombia's new president, last August. Venezuela has always disputed the alleged contents of the files seized in the raid. On Tuesday, its embassy in London said there was "serious doubt on the authenticity and validity of the information". "This could become part of an aggressive propaganda tool against Venezuela to undermine progress in the region, precisely at a time when relations between Venezuela and Colombia have reached a level of stable cooperation and friendly dialogue," the embassy said in a statement. According to the archives, the FARC responded to requests from Venezuela's intelligence services to provide urban warfare training to pro-Chavez groups when the socialist leader was feeling vulnerable following a brief 2002 coup. "The archive offers tantalising but ultimately unproven suggestions that FARC may have undertaken liquidations of Chavez's political opponents," Inkster said in a presentation. Complex ties The documents also show Ecuador's Correa receiving campaign cash from the leftist rebels, although this did not necessarily translate into government favours after he was elected, the report said. Correa adamantly denied receiving money from the guerrillas. "I have never in my life met anyone from the FARC, and would never have accepted even 20 cents from an organisation like that," Correa told news hounds on Tuesday. Colombia's government said it would not comment on the new study. "[Relations with Venezuela] are very good and the position of the Santos government is to strengthen them even more," vice president Angelino Garzon told Colombian radio. The files reveal a complex relationship between Chavez and the FARC, with the charismatic Venezuelan supremo sometimes making promises to the group and then not following through. According to the documents, Chavez met in person several times with leading FARC members. The FARC is at its weakest in decades following the deaths of top commanders and desertions, prompted by a government crackdown aided by billions of dollars in US support. But the rebels remain powerful in some areas of Colombia, helped by their involvement in the lucrative drug trade, kidnappings for ransom, and alliances with other gangs.

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India-Pakistan

Abu Suleiman al-Jazairi confirmed dead in missile air strike

2008-06-01

Analysis piece in the Guardian about the death of number 3 Abu Suleiman al-Jazair, and what it means to al-Qaeda, with the usual spin and hang-wringing. An al-Qaeda trainer and explosives specialist involved in a range of European terrorist networks has been killed in Pakistan, the latest senior militant to die in a spate of controversial American missile strikes. The death two weeks ago of Abu Suleiman al-Jazairi, a highly experienced Algerian militant, has been confirmed only in the last few days, intelligence sources in Pakistan and Western Europe told The Observer. Al-Jazairi, thought to have been 45, died along with at least 15 others when the house in which he was staying in Pakistan's Bajaur tribal district was hit by a missile fired from a Predator. Al-Jazairi, thought to have been 45, died along with at least 15 others when the house in which he was staying in Pakistan's Bajaur tribal district was hit by a missile fired from a Predator, an American pilotless drone. Details are only now emerging about the strike on Damadola, a village near the Afghan-Pakistan border hit twice in the past. The house targeted and destroyed by the drone is believed to belong to a former Afghan Taliban defence minister, Maulvi Obaidullah, members of whose family, including women and children, are thought to have died. The surrounding area is in the hands of militants linked to the Pakistan Taliban militant group who have been blamed for the killing of Benazir Bhutto last year. The death of al-Jazairi, thought to have been director of external operations for al-Qaeda and thus responsible for running the terrorist group's European and British networks, was cited by CIA chief Michael Hayden last week as one of the reasons for the 'strategic defeat' of al-Qaeda. Another top militant, Abu Laith al-Libi, was killed in February. 'The ability to kill and capture key members of al-Qaeda continues, and keeps them off balance - even in their best safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border,' Hayden said. Hayden added that al-Qaeda had been defeated in Saudi Arabia, was losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world and was now unable to exploit the Iraq war to draw in new recruits. However, the CIA chief's upbeat assessment contrasts with collective thinking in the intelligence community in America and elsewhere. Senior counter-terrorist officials in Europe, the Middle East and South Asia in recent weeks revealed profound concern about the potential use of weapons of mass destruction by militants and the continued attraction of the al-Qaeda ideology for second or third generation immigrants and converts in the West. Britain, with its close links to Pakistan, is in a particularly vulnerable position. 'It is certain that mainstream hardcore al-Qaeda have suffered considerable setbacks - in Iraq certainly and elsewhere - but I think generally there is a lot more caution,' said Nigel Inkster, recently retired deputy head of MI6. 'It would only take a couple of attacks for the positive perception to radically change.' Bruce Hoffman, terrorism expert at Georgetown University, said Hayden's comments needed to be seen in the context of American domestic politics. 'In an election year with a two term administration that is very sensitive to its historical record this is not unexpected,' he told The Observer. 'Al-Qaeda may not have had a successful attack in three years but it is too early to declare victory.' Hoffman said that the danger this year was in fact high. 'People do not join a terrorist group to sit on their hands and if [al-Qaeda] are going to retain their relevance it is now or never.' Yet senior figures within American intelligence have also been struck by the failure of al-Qaeda to mobilise broad support in the Islamic world, and have begun to think more optimistically about the future. Security services have closely followed disputes and defections in recent months. Vicious feuding has led some analysts to conclude that the Islamic militant movement is turning in on itself with al-Qaeda leaders Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri increasingly isolated. Postings by al-Zawahiri in a question and answer session on the internet a month ago had a defensive tone, seeking to justify civilian casualties in militant attacks. The strategy is seen as a failure by many militants outside al-Qaeda and by some within the group.

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India-Pakistan

Pakistani Taliban emerging as a major threat, says IISS

2008-02-06

The border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the Kashmir region between India and Pakistan are the worst militancy-affected areas, with a total of 65 terrorist groups in operation, according to a report released in London on Tuesday. The 2008 Military Balance report issued by the International Institute for Security Studies (IISS) sees a growing threat from Al Qaeda and the Taliban movement. According to Nigel Inkster, director of transnational threats and political risk at the institute, as quoted by Reuters, the findings reflect the changing nature of conflicts over the past 10 to 15 years. “We’re seeing less and less inter-state conflict and more and more intra-state conflict involving a wide variety of armed groups — the number just keeps on spiralling.” He said while the roots of these groups lay in localised issues, very recently they had shown an inclination to link themselves to a wider agenda. Global struggle: Led by Baitullah Mehsud, the Waziristan-based group has recently expanded to align itself with global struggles. “Because of the wider ramifications of unrest in the region, the Pakistani neo-Taliban, as it is called, has become a potent and growing threat,” he warned. “Mehsud has linked himself formally with the Afghan Taliban and has been quoted about the need to annihilate the United States and Britain, so he is adopting a wider political agenda,” Inkster added. He said the fastest growing threat came not from Al Qaeda or any of its offshoots in Iraq, but probably Tehreek-e-Taliban — the Pakistani Taliban movement. “In South Waziristan they are actually pretty well established and the Pakistani army can’t really take them on full frontal,” Inkster told Reuters.

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