Warning: Undefined array key "rbname" in /data/rantburg.com/www/rantburg/pgrecentorg.php on line 14
Hello !

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Iran and Israel Poised for Possible Military Clash over Mughniyeh’s Death

2008-02-16

Tehran is bent on avenging the death of its top terror tactician Imad Mughniyeh who was struck down by a bomb planted in his car in Damascus Tuesday, Feb. 13. Even before the high-ranking Iranian military investigation team, headed by Gen. Ghassem Soleimani, chief of the IRGC’s al Qods Brigades, began a rush job the next day, Israel was singled out as the target for punishment by Iran, Hizballah and Syria. (Mughniyeh's) death may have been fabricated to provide Iran, Syria and Hizballah with a strong casus belli to attack Israel without further delay and so repeat the Arabs’ Yom Kippur success 35 years ago in catching Israel unawares. Syria also launched a probe to identify the long arm which hit the shadowy master terrorist under the noses of its security services. Some of the theories and rumors swirling around these probes were planted to muddy the waters by Iran, Syria, Hizballah, Israel and some Lebanese quarters. Arab newspapers, for instance, claimed Saturday that new leads link Arab intelligence services to the crime; ex-Israeli undercover agents pointed the finger at Lebanese Christian Maronites. Wait til we tell them about the grassy knoll. An intriguing conspiracy theory emanating unexpectedly from Western sources was suggested by the veteran CNN correspondent Jim Clancy. In his view, Mughniyeh, the consummate master of deception, may still be alive. Others took the theory further and suggested his death may have been fabricated to provide Iran, Syria and Hizballah with a strong casus belli to attack Israel without further delay, and so repeat the Arabs’ Yom Kippur success 35 years ago in catching Israel unawares. According to this line of thinking, because Iran is forging ahead with the development of a nuclear weapon which Israel has said is unacceptable, rather than wait for Israel to strike, the clerical rulers of Tehran resolved on preemptive action. Mughniyeh’s death, real or phony, provided the motive. DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources have gleaned some facts from the early stages of the highly secretive inquiries and separated them from the theories. 1. Tehran, Damascus and Hizballah are determined to inflict military-terror punishment on Israel whom they accuse of liquidating their key agent, Imad Mughniyeh. Most Israeli government spokesmen see this attack coming in the form of a terrorist strike against an Israeli or Jewish target overseas, on the lines of the 1992 bombing attacks on the Israeli embassy and Jewish cultural center in Buenos Aires which cost more than 100 lives. Nonetheless, the army, navy, air force and homeland defense forces are on a high state of preparedness on Israel’s northern borders. Hizballah announced Saturday, Feb. 16, that it had placed 50,000 of its members on the ready for any eventuality (i.e. directives from Tehran). Personnel at the US embassy and other institutions in Beirut were ordered to be on their guard for attacks, keep a low profile and refrain from using their cell phones. 2. Iran’s supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave the order for Tehran to take charge of the inquiry to identify the hand which killed Mughniyeh, according to our Iranian sources. No time was lost in obeying him. Wednesday, Feb. 14, hours after the assassination, a military mission was in Damascus, led by Gen. Soleimani, whose al Qods Brigades are responsible on behalf of the IRGC for Iran-sponsored terrorist operations in Iraq, Lebanon, the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Its other members are Adm. Mohammad Fadavi, Dep. Commander of the IRGC Navy, who set up the near-clash between Iranian speedboats and US warships in the Strait of Hormuz in January; and Gen. Morteza Rezai, former chief of the IRGC intelligence branch. 3. DEBKAfile’s Iranian sources add that the appointment of Soleimani, a close crony of president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, to lead this sensitive mission, confirms the president’s dominance in national operational decisions, in concert with the Revolutionary Guards. Their decisions are submitted to Khamenei for final endorsement. Two people, therefore, Ahmadinejad and Khamenei, will determine the nature and scale of Iran’s retaliation for the loss of its high-value master terrorist and strategist. 4. Soleimani’s preliminary report reveals that the damage was worse than first thought. Not only was Mughniyeh killed by the bomb planted in his car but also some of his bodyguards and senior Hizballah operatives. Syria’s secret services have fallen down completely in guarding Iranian officials and officers resident or visiting their capital. 5. The national team directing Israel’s emergency actions was set up without publicity. Our sources disclose it is headed by the Mossad chief Meir Dagan and composed of prime minister Ehud Olmert, defense minister Ehud Barak, chief of staff Gaby Ashkenazi, and Shin Beit director Yuval Diskin. The only hint of Dagan’s key role came with the announcement Friday, Feb. 16, that his term of office as head of the Mossad had been extended for another year until the end of 2009. Many will take this announcement as an indirect admission of the Mossad’s responsibility for killing the Hizballah commander and a reward for its director. The Iranian and Israeli teams, keeping their cards close to their chests, are tensely watching events, poised to seize control of any unforeseen situation before it gets out of hand. Four days after Mughniyeh’s death, a military clash appears unavoidable.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Debka (salt alert): Damascus will attack Israel shortly

2008-02-16

Syria vows to strike back at Israel for Imad Mughniyeh's killing in Damascus and "repeated encroachments" DEBKAfile's military sources report: Thursday night, Feb. 14, Syrian officials fanned out among Arab broadcasting stations with a warning: Damascus will attack Israel shortly following a decision by Syrian leaders to end its policy of restraint against its territorial violations. Israeli land, sea, air and homeland defense units were earlier ordered to prepare to defend the country's northern borders against attacks by Hizballah, including rocket strikes, and Syria. Reinforcements were rushed to the north. Israel has received a stream of intelligence confirmations that Iran, Syria and Hizballah have determined not to let Mughniyeh's death pass without an immediate response. They are working together to mount a revenge operation. Western sources watching the funeral of the Hizballah commander Imad Mughniyeh earlier Thursday noted the absence of Hizballah's entire command echelon and the Revolutionary Guards officers serving at Iran's Beirut embassy. They were assumed to have gone to ground to plan a combined offensive against Israel whom they accuse of the Mughniyeh killing. Hassan Nasrallah's threats ('If Israel wants open war, so bit.") were broadcast by video DEBKAfile's intelligence sources note that the way Iran's foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki stood at Thursday's Beirut funeral between Hizballah's Dep. Sec. Gen Naim Qassem and the slain terrorist's father and accepted condolences, confirmed Mughniyeh's high-value role in Tehran's foreign terror system. It also informed the thousands of Shiite mourners that Iran will be part of prospective retaliation for his death against Israel. Iran and Syria have also linked their probes to find out how a hit-team penetrated the heavy security surrounding Imad Mughniyeh in an upscale Damascus neighborhood, planted a bomb in his SUV and detonated it by remote control. Since Wednesday night, according to our sources, a visiting Iranian team of investigators has been hard at work in the Syrian capital to identify the Mughniyeh's killers. It is headed by Gen. Ghassem Soleimani, commander of the al Qods Brigades, the Revolutionary Guards foreign terror arm. Its other members are Adm. Mohammad Fadavi, Dep. Commander of the IRGC Navy, who set up the near-clash between Iranian speedboats and US warships in the Strait of Hormuz in January; and Gen. Morteza Rezai, former chief of the IRGC intelligence branch. They are working with the Syrian team led by acting interior minister Gen. Bassam Abdul Majid.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Iran's Rev Guard Broadens Influence

2007-04-01

Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, the elite unit at the heart of the latest Middle East crisis, has greater power today than at any point since the revolution's early days to export Islamic militancy and challenge the West's presence in the region, say U.S. officials and Iran experts. Its naval forces abducted 15 British sailors and marines nine days ago. Its special forces unit is operating deep in Iraq, providing militias with deadly roadside explosives used against American troops, U.S. officials say. It supplied missiles used by Hezbollah last summer in the longest war Arabs ever fought with Israel. And it now plays the largest role in Iran's ambitious military industries, including attempted acquisition of nuclear weapons and surface-to-surface missiles, according to an upcoming book by Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. But almost three decades after the 1979 revolution, the Revolutionary Guard has also become a leading political and economic force in Iran. One of its veterans, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, became Iran's president in 2005. The force and a network of current and former commanders have also moved into Iran's oil and gas business, won bids on major government construction contracts, and even gained lucrative franchises such as Mercedes-Benz dealerships, the sources say. "The Revolutionary Guards are quickly emerging as the most prominent actor in Iran," said Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "They're playing an increasingly active role on the domestic political scene, have enormous economic assets and interests, are a key player in the nuclear program, and are essentially running Iranian activities in Iraq and Lebanon." The Guard's high profile is one of the reasons that the assets of its top officials were frozen, because of ties to sensitive nuclear and missile programs, under two U.N. resolutions passed on March 24 and Dec. 23. Among the officials cited were the Guard's top commander, Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, and deputy commander, Brig. Gen. Morteza Rezaie, as well as the heads of the Guard's ground forces, navy, Quds Force and Basij (Mobilization of the Oppressed) volunteers. The widening presence of its Quds Force in Iraq is the reason U.S. troops launched two raids in December and January on Iran's operating bases, detaining seven men in Baghdad and Irbil. Five are still held, although Iranian officials expected them to be released on the Iranian new year, March 21. Although neither Tehran nor London has linked the events, the 15 Britons were captured two days after Tehran expected the five in Iraq to be freed and the day before the U.N. vote freezing the assets of seven top Revolutionary Guard commanders. In his first public comments on the matter, Ahmadinejad said yesterday that the Guard had demonstrated "skill and bravery" in detaining the Britons. Ahmadinejad, who was a midlevel officer, mirrors the evolution of the Guard, formed to protect the revolutionaries and prevent a military coup. The Guard is separate from Iran's conventional military -- and less than one-third the size, according to Cordesman. Iran's regular army, navy and air force total more than 400,000 troops. The Guard numbers about 125,000. But its numbers belie its power. The Guard gained stature during Iran's eight-year war with Iraq, when it fought some of the toughest battles, provided human minesweepers and took huge casualties. That generation has now come of leadership age, said Kenneth Katzman of the Congressional Research Service, the author of "Warriors of Islam," a book about the Guard. "They fought as young men, and now they're middle-aged. They have gone from the battlefield to mayoralties, governates and management of ministries," Katzman said. Tehran Mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf was a senior Guard commander. The Guard is now a less effective conventional fighting force than it was during the Iran-Iraq war, Cordesman said. But it controls the deadliest arms, including adapted Scud missiles with ranges up to 1,200 miles, along with a chemical and biological weapons program and missile production. The Revolutionary Guard remains "the center of Iran's hard-line security forces," he said. The most secretive Guard unit is the Quds Force, which conducts operations beyond Iran's borders using proxies such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Cordesman says in the book. It has several directorates -- for Iraq, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories and Jordan; Afghanistan, Pakistan and India; Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula; North Africa; and Europe and North America, Cordesman writes. It has operatives in many embassies abroad, he says, and runs Iran's training camps for unconventional warfare. In January, Cordesman says, Iran's Supreme National Security Council gave the Quds Force control of Iran's operations in Iraq and expanded it from 5,000 to 15,000 troops. After its men were captured in Iraq, the force has lowered its visibility and changed its style of operations, U.S. officials say. The Quds Force is led by Brig. Gen. Qassem Soleimani and reports directly to the office of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Many senior Revolutionary Guard officers have close family ties to top members of the clergy, according to a study of the Guard by Michael Eisenstadt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The Guard's ties and the widening corruption in Iran have increasingly led its commanders, companies and connections to bid on and win government contracts, including for recent oil and gas projects, for which they are not qualified, U.S. officials say. The result, they add, is that key projects are either poorly done or farmed out to other contractors, for a commission.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards get new deputy chief

2006-05-02

Tehran, Iran, Apr. 30 – Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei appointed on Sunday a senior military intelligence official as the deputy commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the Islamic Republic’s ideological armed force. In a statement carried by the official news agency, Khamenei appointed Brigadier General Morteza Rezai for the top post. General Rezai was formerly the head of the IRGC’s Counter-Intelligence Directorate. Rezai replaces Brigadier General Mohammad-Baqer Zolqadr who was recently appointed as deputy Interior Minister with overall responsibility for internal security. Zolqadr is a protégé and trusted confidant of Khamenei and has had a key role in the country’s security apparatus for years. He is also a staunch ally of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The IRGC was founded in the early days of the Islamic revolution in 1979 as an armed force loyal to Iran’s clerical rulers. Its commanders directly report to Supreme Leader Khamenei and their mission is to “protect and propagate the Islamic revolution. Since Ahmadinejad took office as President last year, hundreds of senior officers of the IRGC have been seconded to government ministries and state institutions to keep the civil service in line “prop up” the country’s civil administration as the Islamic Republic continues to defy the international community over its suspected nuclear weapons program.

Link

Warning: Undefined property: stdClass::$T in /data/rantburg.com/www/rantburg/pgrecentorg.php on line 132
-4 More