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Home Front: Politix
Support for Israel runs on party lines
2010-04-11
By Jeff Jacoby

In the wake of the diplomatic fight that the Obama administration went out of its way to pick with Israel last month, two high-ranking members of the US House of Representatives — Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Minority Whip Eric Cantor — invited their colleagues to sign a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. The letter reaffirmed the signers' commitment to the “unbreakable bond'' and “extraordinary closeness'' that exists between the United States and Israel, and declared that “our valuable bilateral relationship with Israel needs and deserves constant reinforcement.'' It expressed dismay at the “highly publicized tensions'' between the White House and the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, and pointedly counseled the administration to resolve its differences with Israel “quietly, in trust and confidence, as befits longstanding strategic allies.''

The letter was polite, but there was no mistaking the implicit rebuke of the president for treating Israel so shabbily. Nor, one might think, was there any mistaking its bipartisan appeal: It was signed by 333 members of the US House, more than three-fourths of the entire membership.

The Hoyer-Cantor letter wasn't the only apparent evidence in recent weeks that American friendliness for Israel crosses party lines. At the national conference of AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby, for example, two of the featured speakers were US Senators Charles Schumer, a staunch Democrat, and Lindsey Graham, an equally staunch Republican. In a Gallup poll released in February, Israel was one of the five countries most positively viewed by a majority of US citizens: 67 percent expressed a favorable opinion of the Jewish state. And the president's tilt against Israel has been denounced as bluntly by GOP loyalist Liz Cheney (“President Obama is playing a reckless game of . . . diminishing America's ties to Israel'') as by lifelong Democrat Ed Koch (“It is unimaginable that the president would treat any of our NATO allies, large or small, in such a degrading fashion.'')

Peer a little more closely, however, and the wall of pro-Israel solidarity turns out not to be quite so — well, solid.

Take that Gallup survey, which found that 67 percent of Americans have a favorable view of Israel. The same survey also found that when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, 63 percent of the public stands with Israel — more than quadruple the 15 percent that support the Palestinians. There's not much doubt that the American mainstream is pro-Israel.

But look at the disparity that emerges when those results are sorted by party affiliation. While support for Israel vs. the Palestinians has climbed to a stratospheric 85 percent among Republicans, the comparable figure for Democrats is an anemic 48 percent. (It was 60 percent for independents.) And behind Israel's “Top 5'' favorability rating lies a gaping partisan rift: 80 percent of Republicans — but just 53 percent of Democrats — have positive feelings about the world's only Jewish country.

Similarly, it is true that 333 US House members, a hefty bipartisan majority, endorsed the robustly pro-Israel Hoyer-Cantor letter to Clinton. But there were only seven Republicans who declined to sign the letter, compared with 91 Democrats — more than a third of the entire Democratic caucus. (Six Massachusetts Democrats were among the non-signers: John Olver, Richard Neal, John Tierney, Ed Markey, Michael Capuano, and Bill Delahunt.)

From Zogby International, meanwhile, comes still more proof of the widening gulf between the major parties on the subject of Israel. In a poll commissioned by the Arab American Institute last month, respondents were asked whether Obama should “steer a middle course'' in the Middle East — code for not clearly supporting Israel. “There is a strong divide on this question,'' Zogby reported, “with 73 percent of Democrats agreeing that the President should steer a middle course while only 24 percent of Republicans hold the same opinion.''

Taken as a whole, America's identification with Israel is as stout as ever — the “special relationship'' between the two nations still runs deep. But the old political consensus that brought Republicans and Democrats together in support of the Middle East's only flourishing democracy is breaking down. Republican friendship for Israel has never been more rock-solid. Democratic friendship — especially in the age of Obama — is growing steadily less so.
Link


Home Front: Politix
Only 155 Dem House Seats Are Safe
2010-01-23
Republican Scott Brown won 52%-47% in Massachusetts, which voted 62%-36% for Barack Obama in 2008. How did he do in each of Massachusetts's 10 congressional districts, all of which are represented by Democrats who have been reelected without much opposition this decade? Blogger Fred Bauer has attempted to calculate the results, omitting results in cities or towns which are split between congressional districts. Bauer shows Coakley winning 80%-20% in Michael Capuano's 8th district (which voted 84% for Obama), 54%-46% in Ed Markey's 7th district (65% Obama) and 51%-49% in John Olver's western Mass 1st district (64% Obama). He shows Coakley narrowly trailing in Barney Frank's 4th district (63% Obama), where I think the Fall River precincts he didn't count would have put Coakley narrowly ahead, and in Stephen Lynch's 9th district (60% Obama) he shows her well behind but doesn't include the Boston wards and precincts which may have put her ahead, although I rather doubt it.

Anyway, there's a pattern here: Coakley carries districts where Obama got 65% or more of the vote and runs essentially even in the district where he got 64%, and Scott Brown runs ahead in districts where Obama got less than 64% of the vote.

Let's extrapolate those numbers to the nation as a whole and assume that a district that voted 64% or more for Obama is safe for Democrats even under the most dire of circumstances. How many such districts are there? Answer, according to this source: 103. The other 332 districts voted 63% or less for Obama. Interestingly, there are more 64%+ Obama districts in the West (36) than in the East (27) and more in the South (21) than in the Midwest (19).

All but two of the 103 Obama 64%+ districts are represented by Democrats. The two exceptions are Louisiana 2, where Republican An Joseph Cao beat Democrat William “Cold Cash' Jefferson in a December 2008 runoff, and Florida 19, whose incumbent Robert Wexler resigned and a special election will be held in April. And, yes, it will be amazing if this heavily Jewish district in Palm Beach and Broward Counties elects a Republican; heavily Jewish Brookline and Newton voted heavily against Scott Brown in Massachusetts.

So that means that 101 of the 256 House Democrats represent 64%+ Obama districts and that 155 House Democrats represent districts which might, according to the Massachusetts metric, be vulnerable in some circumstances to Republican capture. No wonder so many House Democrats refused to vote for the Senate health care bill—enough to prompt Speaker Nancy Pelosi to say publicly that “unease would be a gentle word' to describe their attitude toward doing that.

Who represents the 103 Obama 64%+ districts? By my count, 36 are represented by members of the Congressional Black Caucus and 11 by members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus; three (CA 5, HI 2, LA 3) are represented by members of Asian descent) and 53 by members who are white. I have previously characterized 36 of these last 56 districts as “gentry liberal' districts and 12 as “working class/ethnic' districts.

Where are these 64%+ Obama districts? Here's a list by metro area:

EAST

New York (NY 6, NY 7, NY 8, NY 10, NY 11, NY 12, NY 14, NY 15, NY 16, NY 17, NJ 10, NJ 13)

Philadelphia (PA 1, PA 2, NJ 1)

Washington (MD 4, MD 5, MD 8, VA 8 [technically I count the last in the South)

Boston (MA 7, MA 8)

Baltimore (MD 7)

Pittsburgh (PA 14)

Buffalo (NY 28)

Hartford (CT 1)

Providence (RI 1)

Rural New England (MA 1, VT 1)

MIDWEST

Chicago (IL 1, IL 2, IL 3, IL 4, IL 5, IL 7, IL 9)

Detroit (MI 12, MI 13, MI 14, MI 15)

Cleveland (OH 11)

St. Louis (MO 1)

Minneapolis (MN 4, MN 5)

Milwaukee (WI 4)

Indianapolis (IN 7)

Flint (MI 5)

Madison (WI 2)

WEST

Los Angeles (CA 27, CA 28, CA 29, CA 30, CA 31, CA 32, CA 33, CA 34, CA 35, CA 36, CA 37, CA 38, CA 39, CA 43)

San Francisco (CA 6, CA 7, CA 8, CA 9, CA 10, CA 12, CA 13, CA 14, CA 15, CA 16)

California North and Central Coast (CA 1, CA 17, CA 23)

San Diego (CA 53)

Sacramento (CA 5)

Seattle (WA 7)

Portland (OR 3)

Denver (CO 1)

Phoenix (AZ 4)

Las Vegas (NV 1)

Honolulu (HI 1, HI 2)

SOUTH

Atlanta (GA 4, GA 5, GA 13)

Miami (FL 17, FL 19, FL 23)

Houston (TX 9, TX 18)

Dallas (TX 30)

San Antonio (TX 20)

El Paso (TX 16)

Tampa (FL 11)

Jacksonville (FL 3)

Birmingham (AL 7)

New Orleans (LA 2)

Jackson (MS 2)

Charlotte (NC 12)

Columbia (SC 6)

Memphis (TN 9)

Richmond (VA 3)
Link


Home Front: Politix
Five members of Congress arrested over Sudan protest
2006-04-29
Five members of Congress, including Rep. Tom Lantos (D-San Mateo) were arrested today when they blocked the front entrance at the Embassy of Sudan in Washington, D.C. Their protest and civil disobedience was designed to embarrass the military dictatorship's ongoing genocide of its non-Arab citizens.
Maybe as a side effect. I think it was probably designed more to embarrass the Bush administration. This'd be the demonstration George Clooney was talking about yesterday, another pointless exercise, designed more to achieve TV coverage than to actually do anything.
All told, 11 people were arrested outside the Sudanese embassy on Massachusetts Avenue, including six activists as well as representatives Sheila Jackson Lee (D-Houston), Jim McGovern (D-Worcester, Mass.), Jim Moran (D-Virginia) and John Olver (D-Massachusetts). They were held in a jail cell for about 45 minutes and then released.
I recognize four of the names off the top of my head without googling them. Lantos is the only one of them I have the least bit of respect for. Jim Moran and Sheila Jackson Lee are disasters.
"If you're looking for lack of international morality, Darfur encompasses all aspects," Lantos said before his arrest. "Here we see the slaughter of innocent black women, children and men by a monstrous regime." Lantos, 78, was first elected to Congress in 1981. Two years later, he founded the Congressional Human Rights Caucus. As the only Holocaust survivor ever to serve in Congress, he has pressed the Bush administration to take steps to deter the state-sanctioned murder and rape of hundreds of thousands of people in Sudan's Darfur region. "We have been calling on the civilized world to stand up and to say, 'Enough,' " Lantos said. "The slaughter of the people of Darfur must end."
Bush has stood up and said "Enough!" The rest of the world as mostly replied "Oh, leave them alone. They're having fun." We belong to the UN so we can get that kind of support against bloodthirsty regimes.
Lantos' arrest comes as a diverse coalition of human rights activists is planning to stage major Sudan-related rallies Sunday in Washington, D.C., San Francisco and other cities here and overseas. In recent months, the deteriorating situation in Sudan has become a dilemma for the Bush administration, which formally declared the killings in Sudan genocide in September 2004.
I'm curious, even though I've been watching since Day 1, how it's become a dilemma for Bush, but not for Bashir or Kofi or Amr Moussa.
Link


Home Front: Politix
Congress Members 'Arrested' at Sudan Protest
2006-04-28
WASHINGTON -- Five Congress members were willingly arrested and led away from the Sudanese Embassy in plastic handcuffs Friday in protest of the Sudanese government's role in atrocities in the Darfur region. "The slaughter of the people of Darfur must end," Rep. Tom Lantos, D-Calif., a Holocaust survivor who founded the Congressional Human Rights Caucus, said from the embassy steps before his arrest.

Four other Democratic Congress members _ James McGovern and John Olver of Massachusetts, Sheila Jackson Lee of Texas and Jim Moran of Virginia _ were among 11 protesters arrested on charges of disorderly conduct and unlawful assembly, a misdemeanor subject to a fine. "We must hold the Sudanese government accountable for the attacks they have supported on their own citizens in Darfur," Olver said.

Dozens of demonstrators carried signs, some reading "Stop the slaughter" and "Women of Darfur suffer multiple gang rapes," in front of the embassy Friday morning. The protesters cheered as the Congress members and others were cuffed, hands behind their backs, with plastic ties and quietly led to a white police van by U.S. Secret Service uniformed officers. The arrests were expected. Lantos' office issued a news release about them in advance.
Sounds like the 'arrests' were staged, that would explain why no republicans were involved


The protesters called on the Sudanese government to accept a U.N. peacekeeping force in Darfur and allow humanitarian relief organizations full access to victims. The three-year-old conflict between rebels and government-backed militias has left at least 180,000 people dead, mostly from war-related hunger and disease, and some 2 million homeless.

President Bush on Friday renewed his call for a stronger international presence in Darfur. "The message to the Sudanese government is: We're very serious about getting this problem solved," Bush said at the White House. "We don't like it when we see women raped and brutalized. And we expect there to be a full effort by the government to protect human life and human condition." The United States has authorized more than $300 million for victims of the violence and to support peace talks.

Rallies against the violence in Darfur are planned in more than a dozen U.S. cities this weekend, including on Washington's National Mall on Sunday.
Link



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