Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
Former UN inspector: Satellite images seem to show all 3 tunnel entrances at Isfahan nuke site still blocked |
2025-07-13 |
[IsraelTimes] David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector, says that satellite imagery from Wednesday appears to show that all three tunnel entrances at the Isfahan nuclear site in Iran remain blocked after Israeli and US strikes last month. “Many believe that at least some of the enriched uranium stocks are held inside this tunnel complex, but any such stocks appear to remain inaccessible,” writes the head of the Institute for Science and International Security, in a post on X. “To access these stocks, the Iranians would have to dig through and clear about 20 meters of rubble or backfill to reach any of the tunnel entrances and begin excavation or repair activities,” he says. Albright says that the images show no earth-moving equipment near a tunnel entrance. A senior Israeli official said Thursday that Israeli intelligence shows that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium had not been removed from Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan before the three nuclear sites were struck by the US last month amid Israel’s 12-day war with Iran, and has not been moved since. The official suggested, however, that the Iranians might still be able to gain access to the enriched uranium at Isfahan but that it would be very difficult to remove it.
… to dig through and clear about 20 meters of rubble or backfill to reach any of the tunnel entrances and begin excavation or repair activities. The July 9 image shows no earth moving equipment or other heavy machinery present at any tunnel entrance. However, it appears that roadblocks were established on the street leading to the southernmost tunnel entrance. Of note, there are no visible activities within the main complex housing the now destroyed uranium conversion facilities and uranium metal production plant. To gain access to the complex, Iran will first need to conduct a survey using drones or radiological HAZMAT teams to assess the danger of the site and distribution of radiological and chemical material dispersed by the bombings. Debris and rubble will then need to be removed before any repair or rebuild activities commence. This is a lengthy and complicated process that will take the Iranians some time to complete. Iran may also be holding off on any such activities as they are easily spotted via overhead imagery as a reconstitution effort, which may be met with further Israeli or American attacks. At Natanz, as of July 8, the only operations we've observed have been at the penetration hole above the buried enrichment hall caused by the GBU-57 MOP. The hole has been filled in and a cap has been placed over it. Analysis by: @DAVIDHALBRIGHT1 , @SarahBurkhard , @SFnuclear , and the Good ISIS Team. Related: Isfahan: 2025-07-10 How Russia Saved Its Transcaucasian Allies for Centuries Isfahan: 2025-07-07 BRICS nations condemn Israel over Iran war, in victory for Islamic Republic Isfahan: 2025-07-04 AAR: Scorecard Israel Related: Esfahan: 2025-06-22 Trump says US has bombed Fordo nuclear plant in attack on Iran UPDATE: Trump bombs 3 nuke sites Esfahan: 2024-02-27 IAEA warns Iran building up uranium stockpile, still barring senior monitors Esfahan: 2021-04-10 UN atomic watchdog reports new Iranian breach of nuclear deal |
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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
How Russia Saved Its Transcaucasian Allies for Centuries |
2025-07-10 |
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Artemy Sharapov [REGNUM] Against the backdrop of military defeats and the protracted domestic political crisis they caused (which has once again worsened since mid-June), the Armenian government has made accusations against Russia. ![]() In early July, the republic's Foreign Ministry handed a note of protest to the Russian ambassador over "unfriendly statements" on Russian TV channels and "attacks on the activities of the Armenian authorities." The authorities, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, blame Moscow for their own miscalculations, consistently "breaking down" the relations that have developed over the past 500 years. Over the years, both nations have fought shoulder to shoulder many times and together built a common future in a single country. However, it seems that Yerevan wants to cross out all the chapters of centuries-old friendship for the sake of its political ambitions. Although in the past Russia, which has historically been friendly towards the Armenian people, has come to their aid more than once. The history of Russian-Armenian relations can be counted from the moment of the emergence of Rus as a state, if not earlier. Armenian merchants actively participated in trade on the route "from the Varangians to the Greeks", along which the ancient Russian state was formed. According to experts on the Middle Ages, an Armenian colony existed in Kiev as early as the 12th century. The campaign against the Seljuk Turks by the Georgian-Armenian army under the command of the Novgorod prince Yuri Andreevich, the son of Andrei Bogolyubsky and the husband and co-ruler of Queen Tamara, dates back to the same era (1185). Armenian traders and artisans settled in Moscow as early as the 14th century. During the reign of Ivan the Terrible, an Armenian church operated in the capital of the Russian kingdom - dogmatic differences between the Orthodox and Armenian Apostolic churches did not interfere with mutually beneficial contacts. It is believed that in memory of the Armenian soldiers who took part in the capture of Kazan, Tsar Ivan the Terrible dedicated one of the side chapels of the Pokrovsky Cathedral to Saint Gregory, the enlightener of Armenia. Moreover, in Rus' there was already working, as they would say now, a creative intelligentsia of Armenian origin. The court painter, the author of parsunas (portraits) of Tsar Alexei Mikhailovich was the artist Astvatsatur Saltanyan, who was called Bogdan Saltanov in Russian documents - a native of the diaspora, from the Persian city of Isfahan. Incidentally, the artist arrived in Moscow under the patronage of the influential Armenian merchant Zakhar Sagradov (Sarajyan), who was also the ambassador of the Persian Shah Abbas II at the Russian court. By that time, the historical territory of Armenia had long been divided between two powerful and constantly warring powers - Persia and the Ottoman Empire, in whose rivalry the Armenians often found themselves on the losing end. AN ANCIENT COUNTRY BETWEEN TWO FIRES The history of Armenian statehood, which is usually dated from the 4th century BC, has known brilliant eras. For example, during the reign of Tigran II the Great (1st century BC – 1st century AD), the state with conquered lands stretched from the Mediterranean to the Caspian Sea. But this history was not continuous. Armenian lands were repeatedly divided between large neighbors: the Roman Empire and Persia, Byzantium and the Arab Caliphate, the Seljuks, the Mongols, and the Timurids. In the mid-16th century, after yet another war, the Ottoman Sultan and the Persian Shah (Iran was then ruled by the Turkic Safavid dynasty) divided Armenia roughly along the line of the modern Turkish-Armenian border. The Western part went to the Turks, the Eastern part - with Erivan (Yerevan) - to the Persians. In Sunni Turkey and Shiite Iran, the position of Christian Armenians was ambivalent. On the one hand, Armenian merchants grew rich from trade with Europe and Russia and carried out diplomatic missions. On the other hand, the “infidel” people were always in the position of second-class subjects, and this was not only due to the jizya, the tax that was collected from the “infidels.” In 1604, Shah Abbas I carried out a real ethnic cleansing, which remained in the memory of the Armenian people under the name Surgun ("Exile"): about 350 thousand Armenians were expelled from their native places. Cities and villages were plundered. The Shah ordered the resettlement of non-believers deep into Persia, but many of those deported died or were killed along the way. In Turkey, Armenian peasants were “only” oppressed by unbearable taxes, but during the wars with Iran, the border residents suffered first - and not only from the Sultan’s and Shah’s troops, but also from the Kurdish nomads. The Armenian nobility (and up until the 18th century, Christian princes - meliks, vassals of the Persian shah, still retained power in small holdings in Nagorno-Karabakh) sought patronage from co-religionists, primarily from the Russian tsars. The clergy of the Apostolic Church played a special role. But both under the last Rurikovichs and under Boris Godunov, the Russian kingdom, lacking resources for a military campaign in Transcaucasia, limited itself to political and financial support. With the Time of Troubles (coinciding with the Great Surgun), the Caucasian direction was temporarily forgotten. ALIVE THANKS TO GOD AND THE TSAR During the reign of the first tsars of the Romanov dynasty, Armenians increasingly began to turn to Russia for help. Several letters are known to have been sent by Armenian merchants to Tsar Alexei Mikhailovich, asking for permission to sell silk to Europe through Russian territory. Under Peter the Great, the volume of trade with Armenian merchants was constantly growing, so that the tsar in his decree to the Governing Senate specifically noted: "To increase Persian trade, and to favor the Armenians as much as possible and facilitate them in whatever is appropriate, so as to encourage them to come more often." On the other hand, in 1725, shortly before the death of Emperor Peter the Great, a petition from the Karabakh meliks and Catholicoses Yesai and Nerses arrived in St. Petersburg : "Your Imperial Majesty!.. We are surrounded by merciless enemies: Persians, Ottoman Turks, Dagestanis and others. We are still fighting them, fighting back, but we have remained alive thanks to the fact that we have God above us, and on earth - you, Your pious and God-loving Majesty - our hope and support. We beg you, great Sovereign, to come to our aid." At the moment the message was sent, the Turks invaded Transcaucasia; Yerevan and the Armenian communities of Tiflis and Nakhichevan again experienced the cruelty of the conquerors. David-bek and Mkhitar Sparapet, who raised an uprising in Eastern Armenia in 1722–28, counted on the help of the Russian Tsar. By that time, Russia's advance in Transcaucasia had not yet reached Armenia, but our country accepted Christian refugees within its borders - for example, under Catherine II, the city of Nor-Nakhichevan (New Nakhichevan), now a district of Rostov-on-Don, arose on the banks of the Don. WHY GRIBOYEDOV DIED Changes in the situation of at least the eastern part of the Armenian people occurred after the Russo-Persian Wars of 1804-1813 and 1826-1828 and the Russo-Turkish War (1828-1829), won by Russia. The merit of liberating Yerevan from the Persian yoke belongs to the hero of the war of 1812 and the Foreign Campaign, participant in the capture of Paris Ivan Paskevich. For the capture of Yerevan, the general was awarded the title of count and the addition of Paskevich-Erivansky to his surname. The transition of the Christians of Eastern Armenia under the protection of the co-religious Russia was secured by the Treaty of Turkmanchay in 1828 with the defeated Persia. According to Chapter XV of this treaty, the descendants of the Armenians driven into Persia had the right to free repatriation to the Russian Empire. Russia also insisted on the liberation of Armenian slaves. By the way, the imperial ambassador to Tehran, Alexander Griboyedov, monitored compliance with the terms of the agreement; he also compiled reports for Paskevich on the progress of the repatriation of Armenians from Aderbeijan (Iranian Southern Azerbaijan) to the new Russian lands, noting that “those who came from Persia were mostly artisans and farmers” and, therefore, could be of great benefit in their historical homeland. And it was precisely the fact that the poet and diplomat was hiding Georgians and Armenians on the mission's territory that became one of the reasons for the attack on the embassy, in which Griboyedov died. By "hushing up" the incident, fraught with a new war, the Shah's government demonstrated its readiness to observe the Turkmanchay Peace Treaty - from 40 to 90 thousand Armenians moved to Russia. According to the terms of the Treaty of Adrianople in 1829, up to 100 thousand more people moved from the Ottoman Empire to Russia, populating the territories of modern Georgia, Armenia, and also the present-day Krasnodar Krai and Stavropol Krai. Throughout the 19th century, our consuls in Istanbul and Tehran played the role of defenders of the rights of the local Christian population, including Armenians. Armenians persecuted for religious and political reasons found refuge behind the fence of diplomatic missions. THE GREAT CRIME At the beginning of the 20th century, nationalist movements began to gain strength all over the world. The Ottoman Empire was no exception, where, on the one hand, Turkish nationalism (which took the form of the Young Turk movement) was gaining strength, and on the other hand, both Arab-Muslim and Christian (Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians) subjects of the Sultan began to demand respect for their rights. The Armenians perceived the First World War as a hope for deliverance, but it brought the greatest tragedy in the history of the ancient people. With the outbreak of the war, the Young Turk triumvirate ( Enver Pasha, Talaat Pasha and Djemal Pasha ), which controlled the Sultan's government, began to requisition the property of Christians. At the instigation of the triumvirate, Sultan Mehmed VI, who also bore the title of Caliph of the Faithful, declared jihad - which became the pretext for attacks on Christians. Volunteer Armenian squads from all over the world joined the Russian army. The "Turkish" Armenians, suffering from Ottoman oppression, often greeted the troops of the Caucasian Front as liberators, supporting them. In response, the Sultan's government accused the Armenians of high treason and betrayal. Since April 1915, the deportation of Armenians from Western Armenia, Anatolia and Cilicia began, accompanied by mass murders of the civilian population. In Armenian history, these events became known as "Meds Yeghern" - "The Great Crime", and in European and Russian historiography as the genocide of the people of Ottoman Armenia. The history of the Genocide is a topic for a separate discussion, we will only note that at the hands of soldiers of the Sultan's army and the Kurdish irregular militia, as well as during the "death marches", at least 1.5 million Armenians died. The Armenian militias fought back against the Turks – the heroic defense of the city of Van in April–May 1915 went down in history, but without Russia’s help the resistance would have been doomed. Western historians pay less attention to the fact that with the advance of the Caucasian Front in 1916, between 350,000 and 400,000 Armenians found refuge in the territory occupied by Russian troops and in the Russian Empire itself. Many Armenian historians believe that thanks to Emperor Nicholas II's decision to open the border to accept refugees, the Armenian nation was saved from complete annihilation. The plans for the post-war reconstruction of the Ottoman Empire assumed the restoration of the presence of the Armenian people on historical lands. The plans were upset by the revolution in Russia. The Caucasian front collapsed, the region plunged into chaos. The first Republic of Armenia, proclaimed in 1918, led by the nationalist party "Dashnaktsutyun", found itself squeezed between Turkey and the newly formed Azerbaijan. The internecine war, the epicenter of which was Karabakh, was stopped in 1920 by the Red Army. Since 1921, the Armenian Republic has existed within its current borders - with Zangezur (claimed by the Turks and Azerbaijanis), and within the framework of the Azerbaijan SSR in 1923, the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region was created. Once again, for many years, our country - now called the Soviet Union - guaranteed peace and the peaceful development of the Armenian people. Many of its representatives died on the fronts of the Great Patriotic War for common freedom, one hundred Armenians were awarded the title of Hero of the Soviet Union. At the same time, the number of people both before and after the war continued to grow, having increased from the 1920s to the 1980s more than twofold: from 1 million 300 thousand to 3.3 million people. Even at the end of the USSR, in the perestroika year of 1988, the cities of Spitak and Leninakan (now Gyumri), which suffered from an earthquake, received help from the entire country. THE ONLY BRIDGE With the restoration of independence in 1991, the dark years in the history of Armenia, alas, began (sometimes literally dark, due to power outages). Since 1988, the Karabakh conflict had been going on, which, with the collapse of the Union, escalated into a full-scale war. The republic was kept in a blockade not only by Azerbaijan, but also by its historical ally, Turkey. Georgia, located to the north, was engulfed in civil unrest and was waging wars with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and therefore there could be no talk of any normal transit through Georgian territory. The only gas pipeline that led from Russia to Armenia through Georgia was repeatedly the target of attacks by saboteurs in the Georgian Marneuli region, populated by ethnic Azerbaijanis. The Second Armenian Republic lacked the most basic necessities: grain, gasoline, electricity. In 1992, electricity in the republic could be supplied for one hour per day. In the winter of 1992-93, the temperature in houses often did not exceed zero degrees. Trees, including those from city parks, were used as firewood for potbelly stoves. All this time, let us recall, there was a war in Artsakh-Karabakh, in which both local residents and volunteers from "Greater Armenia" and the diaspora died. Under these conditions, the guarantor of Armenia’s existence was the Soviet and then Russian base (now the 102nd base of the Russian Armed Forces in Gyumri), created back in 1941, through which Moscow could support our historical Armenian allies. SUICIDAL BREAKUP In May 1994, with the participation of Russia, the Karabakh war was stopped (no one knew yet that it would be the first), and it was stopped on a line that suited the Armenian side. For a long 26 years, a status quo was established in the region, within the framework of which the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic - the Republic of Artsakh - existed. Russian border guards took on the protection of Armenia's borders with Turkey and Iran. Russia also took a leading position in military supplies to the Armenian Armed Forces. Some weapons, including air defense systems, radars and ammunition, were supplied on credit under preferential terms. Armenia also joined the Collective Security Treaty Organization, taking part in all of the organization's exercises. The situation began to change after the "velvet revolution" of 2018, when Nikol Pashinyan's government came to power. Under his leadership, Armenia began to reduce arms purchases, including air defense systems, and took a course toward cooperation with the West, probably hoping that the EU or NATO would be able to ensure the country's security and resolve the Karabakh issue. However, in reality, it turned out exactly the opposite. The Second Karabakh War of 2020 ended with the complete defeat of the army of the unrecognized NKR. Pashinyan's government tried to minimize its participation in the conflict as much as possible. Moreover, Armenian volunteers from all over the world arriving in Yerevan never got the opportunity to be at the front. In other words, the second defense of Van did not work this time. Pashinyan's government decided to stop resisting, ignored the demands of the population, refused to support Artsakh and went to negotiations. The Armenian opposition accused the government of behind-the-scenes collusion and surrendering territories in exchange for the promise of EU membership. However, the Armenian side was saved from complete defeat thanks to the intervention of our peacekeeping contingent, which separated the warring parties and established a ceasefire in the region. Russia also deployed sapper and rescue teams in the region, who began demining the area and providing assistance to the local population. However, in response, Pashinyan's government blamed Russia for the military defeat, voicing complaints about untimely or incomplete deliveries of already paid weapons. The government's blatant reluctance to modernize its armed forces in any way in 2023 once again led to an escalation in relations with Azerbaijan. However, here too, the Armenian government abandoned armed resistance, essentially withdrawing from the conflict, which ultimately led to Azerbaijan establishing full control over Karabakh. In response, the Armenian government… again blamed Russia for the defeats, gradually moving towards curtailing defense cooperation. In 2024, Armenian Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan said that since January 2021, Russia's share in new contracts for arms supplies to Armenia had decreased to less than 10%. He explained that this was "Russia's choice," which, according to him, did not supply the necessary weapons. Therefore, in military terms, Armenia decided to reorient itself towards the West, forgetting about its obligations, and began to burn bridges one by one in relations with Russia in all directions. And it remains to be hoped that the Armenian authorities will not succeed in destroying the centuries-old history of cooperation between the two nations. |
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International-UN-NGOs |
BRICS nations condemn Israel over Iran war, in victory for Islamic Republic |
2025-07-07 |
[IsraelTimes] Iran won the support of fellow BRICS nations meeting in Rio de Janeiro today, with the bloc condemning Israel and the US for the assault on Iran’s nuclear program and military infrastructure throughout the 12-day war last month. “We condemn the military strikes against the Islamic Republic of Iran since 13 June 2025,” leaders say in a summit statement, without naming the US or Israel. “We further express serious concern over deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities,” the bloc says. The 11-nation grouping says the strikes “constitute a violation of international law.” The declaration is a diplomatic victory for Tehran, which received limited regional or global support over a 12-day bombing campaign by the Israeli military, which culminated in US strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordo and Isfahan. In retaliation Iran, had fired more than 500 ballistic missiles at Israel, killing 28 people. The BRICS gathering includes Israel’s arch foe Iran, but also nations like Russia and China, which have ties with Tehran. BRICS diplomats had been in disagreement over how strongly to denounce Israel’s bombing of Iran and its actions in Gaza, but ultimately strengthened their language at Tehran’s request. The pronouncement is basically a pro forma blah blah blah without teeth, just to shut up the party from Iran and the big dogs that support it. |
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan |
AAR: Scorecard Israel |
2025-07-04 |
[Townhall] Below are data provided by the IDF on Operation Rising Lion through the first round of fighting: Attacks: 1,500 Air Force sorties and 600 aerial refuelings 1,400 fighter jet strikes and 500 drone strikes The furthest attack - in Mashhad at a distance of 2,400 km by a fighter jet Eliminations: 11 senior nuclear scientists More than 30 senior officials in Iran's security system Hundreds of soldiers of the Iranian military forces Nuclear: 3 nuclear sites were attacked: Isfahan, Natanz and Fordow. Thousands of centrifuges (for uranium enrichment) were destroyed Nuclear research and development centers were destroyed Military infrastructure and weapons: 15 enemy aircraft were destroyed 80 surface-to-air launchers (air defense systems) were destroyed 200 missile launchers were destroyed (50% of all Iranian launchers were destroyed) 35 missile production plants were attacked 6 airports were attacked Intercepts: 86% success in intercepting ballistic missiles (hundreds launched) 99% success in intercepting UAVs (thousands launched) *SENIOR MOMENT One needs to recall that the planes involved in the attacks are old. For example: F-15 introduced in 1976 F-16 introduced in 1978 F-35 introduced in 2015 Tanker KC-35 introduced in 1957 For the Americans: B-2 introduced in 1993 F-22 introduced in 2005 Israel added repurposed 767s as tankers in addition to C-130s. While the "I" version of F-15s (1998) and F-16s (2004) are newer, the planes are still based on old airframes. It is an incredible tribute to the designers and manufacturers of all of the planes above that they performed so well under difficult circumstances. Kudos must also be given to the ground crews that quickly and successfully turned around planes to get them fueled, loaded with bombs and back on their way. The B-2 waited over 30 years for this mission—the exact one for which it was invented. Drones obviously played a huge role in the attack, with their importance only growing in all major air forces. |
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Syria-Lebanon-Iran | |||
Backfire: How Much Damage Has Iran's 'Nuclear Perimeter' Really Suffered | |||
2025-07-01 | |||
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Leonid Tsukanov [REGNUM] The key goal of the Israeli Operation Lion Force was named the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program.
![]() Later, the Americans, who joined in the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, used the same considerations to explain their actions. However, after the completion of the active phase of the operation, the victorious reports gave way to reflections on how real the damage to the Iranian nuclear industry was, and whether Washington and Tel Aviv, with their “decisive throw,” brought Tehran closer to obtaining its own nuclear arsenal. WAYS TO GET RICH According to the provisions of the “nuclear deal” concluded between Iran and a group of guarantors (Russia, China, the USA, Germany, Great Britain, the EU) in 2015, Tehran had the right to enrich about 300 kg of uranium to a level no higher than 3.7%. This symbolic threshold was quite sufficient for the development of the “peaceful atom” and conducting scientific research without the possibility of clandestine work on nuclear weapons. With the collapse of the “deal” after the US withdrew from it in 2017, Iran began a gradual reduction in its commitments to its national nuclear program, reducing the frequency of international inspections and increasing the rate of enrichment, unilaterally raising the threshold several times. According to the latest verified IAEA measurements (February 2025), of the 7.5 thousand kg of enriched stockpiles within the deal, less than 40% (2.9 thousand kg) were attributed to Tehran. Moreover, at least 274 kg was enriched to 60%, which in theory gives Iran the ability to quickly increase these stockpiles to weapons-grade levels (enrichment of 90% or more). The June strikes by Israel and the US on enrichment plants in Natanz and Isfahan, at first glance, set the process back. Washington emphasizes that the air raids allegedly managed to destroy the entire infrastructure for the production of metallic uranium in Isfahan, which will require Tehran to make “serious investments” in the near future to restore it. The Israelis add that at least 13,000 centrifuges were damaged, both by direct missile hits and by power surges at enrichment plants. However, the IAEA is less optimistic in its assessments. Rafael Grossi believes that Iran is capable of quickly - literally in a few months - replacing the centrifuges destroyed as a result of Israeli strikes. Using, among other things, what was stored in underground warehouses "in unspecified quantities." And over the next year, it can also modernize them, once again increasing the rate of enrichment work. Predicting the timing of a new breakthrough will be extremely problematic, especially since, after a series of scandals with IAEA inspectors, Tehran has decided to dismantle the Agency's monitoring systems at its nuclear facilities. UNEXPECTED EARTHQUAKE A separate topic for discussion is the extent of damage to Iran's "nuclear perimeter." Despite the fact that the facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, Arak, and Fordow were subjected to intensive strikes at least three times in two weeks, the damage was inflicted mainly on above-ground buildings, while the underground infrastructure was practically unharmed.
However, as experts note, the attack provoked a "migration" of Iranian stockpiles. About 400 kg of highly enriched uranium disappeared from radars, which the Iranians allegedly transported from Fordow to an unknown location in advance. Considering that IAEA inspections in the country have been stopped, it is not yet possible to determine the new storage location of the disputed stockpiles. The unexpected earthquake (June 20, magnitude 5.2) in the province of Semnan, where a large number of facilities are located, added to the controversy. It was noted that its epicenter was at a depth of approximately 10 km, which only spurred discussions about the start of secret underground nuclear weapons tests in Iran. However, the West did not develop the conspiracy theory. Especially since to create such shocks it would be necessary to detonate a warhead with a capacity of up to 200 kilotons. And this is many times greater than even the military capabilities attributed to Tehran. WEAK SPOT Perhaps the greatest damage to the Iranian nuclear program has been not in equipment and consumables, but in people. The Israeli army's General Staff insists that it was able to eliminate at least nine leading scientists from the Iranian "nuclear project", at least five seconded figures, officers supervising intelligence and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Tehran, however, acknowledges the deaths of only six of them and emphasizes that all of those killed worked in the peaceful sector or were theorists. Fierce debates continue in the West: did the dead nuclear scientists manage to pass on their accumulated knowledge or did Tehran not believe until the very end that Israel would hunt the scientists so actively? Especially since almost five years have passed since the previous major operation to eliminate Iranian nuclear scientists. Either way, the one-time loss of a large number of high-level specialists will limit the capabilities of the Iranian nuclear sector for some time. On the other hand, the patriotic impulse that has emerged in Iran in the wake of the US-Israeli attacks is driving a sharp rise in demand for science education among young people, according to universities that are seeing an influx of motivated applicants. If Tehran manages to ride this wave, it will be able to saturate the industry with new personnel in the next decade. BACK TO THE ROOTS Although Iran has stopped publicly discussing a new "nuclear deal" after the US-Israeli operation, the authorities have left little room for maneuver. The Iranian diplomatic corps maintains alternating contacts with the Europeans and Washington (although the White House denies the fact of these interactions), and also works closely with non-Western intermediaries in the form of Russia and China. Tehran does not hide that it is still interested in dispelling the myths surrounding its "atomic dossier", although it makes a reservation that it will continue to enrich uranium within the limits that it deems necessary. And if the situation requires it, it is ready to continue the confrontation with the United States. Even though concluding a new deal still meets the interests of the Masoud Pezeshkian government, official Tehran’s excessive attention to the diplomatic track could be perceived in the current circumstances as a sign of weakness and an admission of defeat in the recent conflict. For this reason, it is important for Iranian elites to continue to balance, demonstrating a willingness to negotiate, but taking into account their own compelling interests. Moreover, Iran even has some trump cards in its hands - for example, a draft law on the country's withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, following the example of the DPRK. It has already been repeatedly put on the agenda, but has not received support. If the guarantors put too much pressure on Tehran, it may well give the document a go.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan | ||||||
Calculating damages in the 12 Day Iranian - Israeli Air War | ||||||
2025-07-01 | ||||||
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. Text taken from a news article posted in secretra.com Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics. [ColonelCassad] According to Israeli media and economic reports, Israel has suffered direct losses of $12 billion as a result of the 12-day aggressive war against Iran, and total losses could reach $20 billion. ![]() The losses include not only military costs, damage from missile strikes, payments to individuals and entities affected, but also infrastructure repairs.
According to the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth, the country's budget has already suffered losses of NIS 22 billion ($6.46 billion). The Israeli military is now asking for an additional NIS 40 billion ($11.7 billion) to replenish weapons stockpiles, purchase additional interceptors and offensive weapons, and maintain reserve units, in addition to pre-war requests for NIS 10 billion and then NIS 30 billion. Israel’s budget deficit is expected to widen to around 6% amid problems financing military spending, on top of the deficit already accumulated during the Gaza war.
The damage inflicted on the Israeli regime by direct Iranian missile strikes is estimated at $1.3 billion. Israeli business newspaper Calcalist reported that the regime’s cabinet has spent around $5 billion, or roughly $725 million a day, on offensive operations against Iran and defensive measures to intercept Tehran’s missiles and drones.
The Marker confirmed on Monday that material damage from Iranian missile strikes has already exceeded NIS 5 billion ($1.5 billion). Economic analysts have warned that continuing the war could push Israel’s already weakened economy to the brink of collapse. The Tax Authority estimates that some 15,000 Israeli settlers have been forced to flee their homes due to damage caused by Iran's retaliatory operations. Many have moved to hotels in the occupied territories. The cost of their hotel stays is currently estimated at around 100 million shekels ($29 million). The regime will have to pay rent for an unknown period of time to hundreds or thousands of families, some of them long-term, until the destroyed buildings are rebuilt - a process that could take years. Meanwhile, a German journalist has exposed censorship in the Israeli media following Iran's massive retaliatory missile strikes. Reporters are warned not to report on Iran's destruction of military targets or Israeli troop losses, he says, but only on civilian casualties.
Of these, about 33,000 claims were for damage to buildings, and more than 8,000 for damage to vehicles, property, and equipment. The majority of claims, about 26,000, were filed by Tel Aviv residents. Until October 7, 2023, about 6,000 settlers were receiving permanent compensation from the regime. Following the Hamas operation in the southern settlements, this number skyrocketed to 25,000. According to The Marker, this figure is expected to increase further after the war with Iran. Tel Aviv is already planning to ask Washington for additional financial support in the form of aid or guaranteed loans to reduce military spending and finance urgent military priorities. Iranian direct and indirect losses are preliminarily estimated at $25-30 billion (damaged infrastructure, damaged ground-based nuclear facilities, destroyed and damaged air defense systems, radars and other equipment, high missile consumption, including expensive ones, assistance to victims and those deprived of housing, etc., etc.). If underground structures in Isfahan and Fordow were damaged,
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Syria-Lebanon-Iran |
CIA chief says strike on metal conversion site set Iran nuclear program back by years |
2025-07-01 |
![]() CIA Director John Ratcliffe told skeptical US politicians that American military strikes destroyed Iran’s lone metal conversion facility and in the process delivered a monumental setback to Tehran’s nuclear program that would take years to overcome, a US official said Sunday. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the sensitive intelligence, said Ratcliffe laid out the importance of the strikes on the metal conversion facility during a classified hearing for US politicians last week. The metal conversion facility that Ratcliffe said was destroyed was located at the Isfahan nuclear facility. The process of transforming enriched uranium gas into dense metal, or metallization, is a key step in building the explosive core of a bomb. Details about the private briefings surfaced as President Donald Trump ...dictatorial for repealing some (but not all) of the diktats of his predecessor, misogynistic because he likes pretty girls, homophobic because he doesn't think gender bending should be mandatory, truly a man for all seasons... and his administration keep pushing back on questions from Democratic politicians and others about how far Iran ![]() spontaneouslytaking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militiasto extend the regime's influence. The word Iranis a cognate form of Aryan.The abbreviation IRGCis the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA).The term Supreme Guideis a the modern version form of either Duceor Führeror maybe both. They hate was set back by the strikes before last Tuesday’s ceasefire with Israel took hold. "It was obliterating like nobody’s ever seen before," Trump said in an interview on Fox News Channel’s "Sunday Morning Futures." "And that meant the end to their nuclear ambitions, at least for a period of time." Ratcliffe also told politicians that the intelligence community assessed the vast majority of Iran’s amassed enriched uranium likely remains buried under the rubble at Isfahan and Fordo, two of the three key nuclear facilities targeted by US strikes. But even if the uranium remains intact, the loss of its metal conversion facility effectively has taken away Tehran’s ability to build a bomb for years to come, the official said. Rafael Grossi, head of the ineffective International Atomic Energy Agency, said Sunday on CBS’ "Face the Nation" that the three Iranian sites with "capabilities in terms of treatment, conversion and enrichment of uranium have been destroyed to an important degree." But, he added, "some is still standing" and that because capabilities remain, "if they so wish, they will be able to start doing this again." He said assessing the full damage comes down to Iran allowing in inspectors. "Frankly speaking, one cannot claim that everything has disappeared, and there is nothing there," Grossi said. Appearing on the same CBS program, Iran’s ambassador to the UN vowed the Islamic Theocratic Republic"will never stop" enriching uranium. "The enrichment is our right, an innate right, and we want to implement this right," said Amir Saeid Iravani. Trump has insisted from just hours after three key targets were struck by US bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk missiles that Iran’s nuclear program was "obliterated." His defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, has said they were "destroyed." A preliminary report issued by the US Defense Intelligence Agency, meanwhile, said the strikes did significant damage to the Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan sites, but did not totally destroy the facilities. As a result of Israeli and US strikes, Grossi says that "it is clear that there has been severe damage, but it’s not total damage." Israel claims it has set back Iran’s nuclear program by "many years." Secretary of State Marco Rubio ...The diminutive 13-year-old Republican U.S. Senator from Florida, Secretary of State in the second Trump administration... in comments at the NATO ...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A cautionary tale of cost-benefit analysis.... summit last week also suggested that it was likely the US strikes had destroyed the metal conversion facility. "You can’t do a nuclear weapon without a conversion facility," Rubio said. "We can’t even find where it is, where it used to be on the map. You can’t even find where it used to be because the whole thing is just blackened out. It’s gone. It’s wiped out." The CIA director also stressed to politicians during the congressional briefing that Iran’s air defense was shattered during the 12-day assault. As a result, any attempt by Iran to rebuild its nuclear program could now easily be thwarted by Israeli strikes that Iran currently has little wherewithal to defend against, the official said. Ratcliffe’s briefing to politicians on the US findings appeared to mesh with some of Israeli officials’ battle damage assessments. Israeli officials have determined that Iran’s ability to enrich uranium to a weapons-grade level was neutralized for a prolonged period, according to a senior Israeli military official who was not authorized to talk publicly about the matter. Tehran’s nuclear program also was significantly damaged by the strikes killing key scientists, damage to Iran’s missile production industry and the battering of Iran’s aerial defense system, according to the Israeli’s assessment. |
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Fatwa Calling for Muslims to Assassinate President Trump, PM Netanyahu Issued by Iranian Ayatollah | |||
2025-06-30 | |||
[GatewayPundit] If I recall correctly, they both were already under threat from Muslim assassins, including inspired by Iran.
Iranian Shiite Grand Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi, 98, issued a fatwa calling on Muslims worldwide to assassinate President Donald Trump, as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The semi-official Iranian news outlet Mehr News Agency reported on its English language site on Sunday (excerpt): Grand Ayatollah Makarem Shirazi has issued a fatwa in which he declares anyone who threatens Leader, and Shia Marja to be the Enemy of God, who has to be fought against according to Islamic teachings. ![]() After threats were made by the criminal American president
"Any person or regime that threatens the Leader or Marja (May God forbid) is considered an enemy of God," Grand Ayatollah Makarem said in his Fatwa, which is a response to the question to him.
Related: Makarem Shirazi 03/13/2020 Top Iranian cleric okays buying future Israeli coronavirus vaccine Makarem Shirazi 11/24/2014 Muslim Clerics Meet In Iran To Counter Islamic State Makarem Shirazi 12/05/2011 France Reduces Tehran Embassy Staff after Attack on British Mission | |||
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Shaken by depth of Israeli penetration, Iran said to launch sweeping internal crackdown - Mossad there since 2010 (!!) |
2025-06-29 |
Spy squirrels! Spy herons!!! OMG MOSSAD!!!!!!!!! [IsraelTimes] Tehran reportedly detains over 1,000 in spy hunt; leaked documents reveal Israel had ‘boots on the ground’ across Iran’s nuclear and military sites since 2010The Iranian regime has launched a sweeping internal crackdown aimed at rooting out Israeli spies, dissidents and opposition figures, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times ![]() ...which still proudly claims Walter Duranty's Pulitzer prize... reported Saturday, in light of Mosssd ![]() ’s deep penetration of its ranks that gave Jerusalem extensive intelligence on the nation’s nuclear program and allowed it to eliminate numerous brass hats during the 12-day offensive against the Islamic Theocratic Republic. The Journal, citing Amnesty International, said more than 1,000 Iranians have been detained over the past two weeks on allegations of aiding Israel. There are now daily reports in state media of new arrests and weapons seizures, the report said. In the western city of Hamedan — home to an air base heavily damaged in Israel’s opening strike — authorities announced 24 cases against suspected Israeli operatives accused of "sending information, photos, and videos to the enemy." The regime’s sweeping response comes amid revelations of a years-long Israeli intelligence-gathering effort that penetrated deep into the heart of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Mohammad Amin-Nejad, Iran’s ambassador to La Belle France, acknowledged the extent of the penetration in an interview last week with La Belle France 24, saying, "The Israelis organized penetrations, transfers of bombs and explosives, and recruited people from within. It happened right before our eyes. There were vulnerabilities." A senior adviser to Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mahdi Mohammadi, acknowledged in a leaked audio recording that Iran ...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneouslytaking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militiasto extend the regime's influence. The word Iranis a cognate form of Aryan.The abbreviation IRGCis the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA).The term Supreme Guideis a the modern version form of either Duceor Führeror maybe both. They hate had suffered a "massive security and intelligence breach," according to The New York Times. In a reflection of the regime’s mounting anxiety, internet access, which had been cut nationwide for more than a week, was only restored on Wednesday. Even so, authorities have continued to warn against using messaging platforms such as WhatsApp, citing fears that Israeli intelligence services could exploit them to intercept communications. The intelligence ministry has urged citizens to report suspicious activity and has released detailed guidance on how to identify potential spies. The Journal said that among the behaviors flagged in the materials are people coming and going at odd hours, wearing masks or donning hats and sunglasses indoors, as well as metallic banging noises inside homes and curtains that remain closed during daylight hours. The New York Times reported that the Iranian government has fast-tracked trials and executions for alleged spies and is advancing legislation to expand the death penalty ![]() Mohammad Ali Shabani, an analyst cited in the report, suggested the Israeli strikes may have generated a rare "rally-around-the-flag" effect, with some Iranians moved to assist the regime out of fear or nationalistic impulse. Human rights organizations cited by the paper warned that the crackdown was disproportionately affecting ethnic and religious minorities, opposition figures nand foreigners, with many held without warrants or access to lawyers. A YEARS-LONG EFFORT British daily The Times reported that Israel had had "boots on the ground" for years in the lead up to its strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic missiles program, monitoring and gathering intelligence from several locations as early as 2010. The report cited an intelligence source and leaked intelligence documents shared with Western countries. According to leaked documents shared with Israel’s Western allies, including the US and Britannia, and seen by The Times, Israel assessed that by the end of 2024 Iran had moved beyond the research stage of weaponizing nuclear materials and had begun experiments to be able to build a bomb "within weeks." The leaked documents also showed that Iran aimed to dramatically ramp up its ballistic missile capabilities, producing dozens of surface-to-surface missiles each month with a goal of reaching 8,000 in total. Israel believed such an arsenal would allow Iran to cause devastating damage to the Jewish state. At the time of the war, Tehran was thought to have some 2,500 ballistic missiles. It launched around 500 at Israel, and was prevented from launching more due to Israel’s destruction of around half of its 400 launchers and its repeated strikes on missile caches and command centers. Based on the intel it had gathered, Israel targeted numerous sites beyond the well-known facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, including labs and sites used to produce materials for nuclear weaponization, The Times said. Many of the sites struck were operated by the SPND, the military organization led by nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, whom Israel allegedly assassinated in 2020. Israeli intelligence had agents "monitoring multiple locations" in Iran for years as it readied a potential attack, the paper said. It said intelligence officers had spies map out the layout of the Natanz facility before it was attacked and destroyed, identifying overground and subterranean targets involved in uranium enrichment, electrical infrastructure and R&D. Reconnaissance infiltrated other sites, including Isfahan, Nur, Mogdeh, the Sanjarian nuclear component facility, the Shariati military base, and the Shahid Meisami hangar — believed to house plastic explosives and advanced materials used in nuclear detonation testing. The report also said intelligence documents show Israel penetrated the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which was also heavily targeted by the IDF. Israel launched its surprise operation against Iran on June 13 when it launched a sweeping assault on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The 12-day conflict came to a close Tuesday when a US-brokered ceasefire took hold. Israeli forces targeted top military leaders, nuclear scientists, uranium enrichment sites and ballistic missile programs in the country to dismantle the "existential threat" posed by the Islamic Theocratic Republic. Iran responded by launching over 550 ballistic missiles and around 1,000 drones at Israel, killing 28 people and wounding thousands, according to health officials. The missiles hit apartment buildings, a university and a hospital, as well as critical infrastructure sites, causing heavy damage. |
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The US did not even try to destroy the nuclear facility in Isfahan | |
2025-06-29 | |
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [ColonelCassad] Despite Trump's calls to "Fire Natasha!" CNN continues to pile on that Trump's strikes on Iran were futile.
CNN: The US did not drop a bomb on the facility in Isfahan, it is too deep. In fact, the strikes on the nuclear facility in Isfahan were first carried out by Israel, and then the US attacked the facility with Tomahawk cruise missiles. The main damage was inflicted on the buildings on the surface. The underground complex itself was not actually damaged, since Israel had nothing to destroy it with (except nuclear weapons, and even that is not a fact), and the US did not even try to destroy the underground facility in Isfahan. So the underground part of the complex has not gone anywhere and can be reactivated after repair work on the surface. At the same time, the IAEA will now not be allowed into the facilities to objectively monitor what is happening. It's about the same with Fordow. Only the facility in Natanz, which is not located so deep, could potentially have suffered more serious damage from one of the bunker buster bombs. P.S. Regarding Iran's strike on the US, the published satellite images of the Al Udeid base so far show one hit on the presumably radar system on the base's territory. Equipment key to producing a nuclear bomb was destroyed in strikes on Isfahan — NYT [IsraelTimes] Israeli and American airstrikes at Iran’s Isfahan nuclear site destroyed equipment key to the production of nuclear weapons, according to The New York Times. The report says the equipment is used for a process known as metallization that converts enriched uranium gas into metal, one of the final steps to producing the explosive core inside a nuclear bomb. Analysts cited by the US newspaper say that Tehran intensified its nuclear activities at Isfahan after US President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018, adding that the strikes on the metallization gear have denied the Islamic Republic the ability to assemble an atomic weapon in the near future. “It’s a bottleneck,” David Albright, a former UN nuclear inspector, tells The New York Times regarding the destruction of the equipment. “They have to rebuild it.” | |
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🕯️ The Mossad Agent Who Danced Through Tehran | |
2025-06-28 | |
Thanks to Clarice Feldman:
This is not fiction. Not a movie. Not a Netflix script. This is the real, haunting story of a woman who shattered a regime without firing a single bullet— Only with trust. And betrayal. She was born in Paris. Jewish. Secular. Free. But her blood carried the winds of Yemen, the pulse of exile, the poetry of desert silence. She studied the Middle East like a lover reads a letter— Sunni and Shia. Arab and Persian. Revolution and rot. Then—she vanished. Reappeared in London. As a devout Shia Muslim. Chador. Farsi. Hadith. She quoted Khomeini like sacred scripture. She bowed toward Qom. She wept with the faithful. And Tehran opened its arms. But she was a dagger. Sharpened in Tel Aviv. Poison-tipped with prose. She wrote for Press TV. For Tehran Times. Her articles ran under Supreme Leader Khamenei’s official site. Her pen didn’t praise. It mapped. Every paragraph—a code. Every metaphor—a missile lock. They called her Catherine. She sipped mint tea with IRGC wives. She prayed beside scientists' daughters. She whispered with veiled softness: “Does he sleep well after such burden?” “Do you ever feel afraid when he travels?” And they answered. With schedules. With names. With secrets. Every sigh she heard became a funeral. Operation Shabgard (Nightwalker) June 13–14, 2025 Iran burned. 🛑 8 IRGC commanders incinerated in their beds 🛑 7 nuclear scientists—never made it to work 🛑 3 Quds Force ghosts—wiped from the earth No drones. No spies in alleys. Just her words. Her whispers. Her silence. Her poetry. When the missiles fell, she vanished. Qom. Isfahan. Karaj. They traced every prayer rug she knelt on. But she was gone. A Mossad team plucked her from a dry riverbed in the Zagros Mountains. No footprints. No calls. Just smoke. Today, she is a ghost. Her blog? Deleted. Her Twitter? Gone. No photo. No trail. No trace. But in Tehran, they curse her name. And in Tel Aviv, they whisper it like a myth: “The Woman Who Burned Qom Without a Match.” “The Writer of the Minarets.” “The Pen that Pierced the Republic.” She fought not with fists—but faith. Not with violence—but intimacy. She killed no one. And yet thousands never woke again. 🕯️ She is not a character. She is a reminder. That in the age of drones and data— A woman with a pen and a prayer can still rewrite history.
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Iran's Flying Monkeys |
2025-06-27 |
[Tablet Magazine] A few months before he was buried under the rubble of his Beirut bunker, the late leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, repeated to his followers, as he had done many times before, his famous line that Israel was "weaker than a spider’s web." That is, Israel was an artificial implant that structurally was bound to collapse. All it needed was sustained violence and patience. The end result was inevitable: Israel would vanish from the map with a wave of the hand. The fantasy that Nasrallah peddled to his followers and "resistance" fans was not, on its face, entirely ungrounded. Iran, a much larger country than Israel, with 10 times the population, was a rising power. Its regional reach spanned from the Gulf to the Mediterranean. It had established missile bases on Israel’s borders and on a critical maritime passageway in the Red Sea. It controlled four Arab capitals and dominated the landmass across Iraq through Syria into Lebanon. In addition, Iran was allied with the United States’ two great rivals, Russia and China. In short, for Nasrallah and the resistance faithful, it appeared certain that Iran was inexorably ascendant. In reality, Iran’s winning hand was a mirage. It took Israel 21 months to blow through it—15 of which were during a hostile American administration that actively tried to hobble the Israeli effort, to prevent the Iranian Wizard of Oz and his legions of flying monkeys from being scattered to the winds. Gaza, Iran’s southern front, is now a wasteland, which, if President Donald Trump implements his stated plan, will be emptied of most if not all of its inhabitants—or at least those who choose not to live in rubble. Whether Trump’s Gaza plans rise or fall, it’s unlikely that Israel will ever cede control over the strip’s border with Egypt, which means that Gaza as an active front against Israel is gone for good. Next to go was Hezbollah, the oldest and best equipped of Iran’s regional terror assets—indeed, the lynchpin of its regional network. Within three months in 2024, Israel eliminated the group’s entire command structure, decimated its infrastructure along the shared border, and blew up its weapons caches. Despite a U.S.-imposed cease-fire, Israel has maintained operational freedom and continues to take out cadres and arms caches inside Lebanon at will, with Hezbollah unable to mount any response. Not long after Nasrallah’s demise, the other big piece on the Iranian board tumbled. In a matter of days in December 2024, the Assad regime, the Islamic Republic’s strategic ally since the 1979 revolution, was gone. Hollowed out by a decade and a half of war, and with Hezbollah eviscerated and Russia bogged down in Ukraine, the 53-year rule of the Assad family was suddenly history. In its place, a new Sunni regime in Damascus, Syria, is now intercepting weapons shipments to Hezbollah. Iran’s multiple militias in Iraq, another card in the mullah’s winning fantasy poker hand, didn’t bother to deploy in Syria and have largely been irrelevant in the axis’ confrontation with Israel. While Iran maintains political clout in Baghdad, its militias there have proved worthless as a military instrument in its regional project, as Iraqi Shia turn out to look good only on paper while displaying little motivation to get slaughtered by a superior enemy on behalf of Iranian adventurism. With its Levantine network in shambles, Tehran’s most relevant proxy over the past 20 months has been the Ansar Allah group (the Houthis) in Yemen. The Houthis have held global shipping in the Red Sea hostage while occasionally lobbing missiles and attack drones at Israel. As a result, they too have been hit hard, by both the IDF and the United States and Britain. In recent days, the Houthis have threatened to resume targeting U.S. ships in the Red Sea, which would likely invite a punishing response. Finally, there was Iran itself: the home base of the mighty resistance axis. In recent years, Israel had already shown how thoroughly it had penetrated Iran. From the theft of the mullahs’ entire nuclear archive to multiple sabotage operations and high-value targeted assassinations, including taking out Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran in July 2024, Israel showed the ability to operate with ease throughout Iran—including in the country’s most sensitive and well-guarded places. The country’s intelligence services and decision-making echelons were forced to assume that Israel was privy to the regime’s secrets and could kill its leadership at will. After making short shrift of Iran’s air defense systems in October, Israel demonstrated its total military superiority this month, gaining full control of Iran’s airspace and going to work on its nuclear facilities, ballistic missiles and launchers, command and control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the nuclear program’s top scientists, clearing the way for the United States to demolish Iran’s three main nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. And with that, Iran’s nuclear dreams went up in smoke, much like its regional enterprise. Since Israel thrashed Hezbollah a year ago, and the cascade of wins that followed, the global reaction to its achievement has been one of surprise—shock at the comprehensiveness of the Israeli domination and the complete Oz-like hollowness of the Iranians. But the Iranian regional position, much like its nuclear program, was a function not of Iranian strength but most crucially of U.S. support. If the Iranians were illusionists, the fuel for their tricks came from an America that repeatedly wrote monetary and diplomatic checks under the assumption that the magic act was real. This applied across the board. In Iraq, the American nation-building project ensured the Iranians a sanctions-busting vehicle and protection. Whenever a Sunni revolt against the post-2003 order emerged in Iraq, the Iranians relied on the United States to put it down and prop up Tehran’s assets in the country. But it was in Syria where Iranian dependence on U.S. protection was most evident. When Syria’s Sunnis rose against Iran’s vassal, Bashar al-Assad, Iran mobilized its Lebanese and Iraqi assets to prop him up. Soon it was sending Afghan and Pakistani Shia into the Syrian theater, too. Still, it wasn’t able to put down the uprising, despite Assad using chemical weapons against population centers. Yet it turned out that Iran and Assad had little to fear from direct American involvement in Syria. When Tehran’s ally, then President Barack Obama, finally intervened in 2014, it was against the Islamic State group, which the United States and Iran’s Iraqi assets were partnering against in Iraq as well. Regardless, by 2015, Iran’s position in Syria was still wobbly. It required Obama facilitating the entry of Russia’s air force into Syria to help Iran’s militias gain the upper hand, though even that was not enough to take back the whole country. Similar to Iraq, the American nation-building enterprise in Lebanon was also a condominium with Iran designed to protect Tehran’s holdings. Much as the Obama administration teamed up with Iranian assets in Iraq under the cover of the "anti-ISIS campaign," it did the same in Lebanon behind the veneer of supporting "state institutions," which allowed Hezbollah to protect its flank while prosecuting Iran’s war in Syria. Moreover, at various points before Oct. 7, Washington intervened to dissuade Israel from responding to Hezbollah provocations, locking it instead in diplomatic and even economic arrangements with Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon. Even after the group opened the front against Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, the Biden administration deterred Israel from attacking in response. Even the cease-fire the administration announced in November 2024 was reportedly imposed under threat of a U.S.-backed U.N. Security Council resolution against Israel. The IRGC and its regional proxies all benefited from American protection under the Obama team’s three terms in office. While Obama protected the IRGC from being designated as a foreign terrorist organization, and his deal with Iran removed international sanctions on regime terror chief Qassem Soleimani, the Biden administration likewise removed Yemen’s Houthis from the terror list. With Obama’s help, the IRGC consolidated its position across the region. U.S. protection and funding—including, for example, the famous 2016 direct payment of $1.7 billion in cash—were at the heart of Obama’s deal with Iran. The JCPOA not only legitimized Iran’s nuclear weapons program but also protected Iran’s nuclear assets with an international, namely American, shield. That shield took the form, among other things, of leaks against potential Israeli preemptive strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites. In fact, Obama administration officials bragged about blocking Israeli military action, declaring that it was now too late for Israel to do anything: The administration had successfully protected its new ally’s nukes. For more than a decade, Israel has had to work around this American protective cover. Fear of leaks intended to sabotage Israeli operations was so pervasive under Biden that the Israelis did not give advance notification of the September strike that killed Nasrallah. The following month, ahead of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Iran, the administration made clear its objection to any Israeli targeting of Iranian nuclear or energy facilities. It took Israel as long as it did to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and regional project only because Washington hobbled it for all but six of the past 21 months, between diplomatic pressure and threats, slow-rolling arms deliveries, and micromanaging the Israeli war effort, especially in Gaza. So what changed? As the past few weeks have demonstrated, the key variable—the difference between a U.S.-protected nuclear Iran that dominates the region, and the geopolitical picture we have today, with Iran cut down to size—is leadership. Any misalignment on either side, in the United States or Israel, could well have prevented the current outcome. Had the Obama team’s campaign to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu succeeded at any point between 2021 and 2024, it seems unlikely that Netanyahu’s American-approved replacement would have been able to successfully navigate the post-Oct. 7 landscape and destroy Iran’s regional project. Likewise, had Trump lost the 2024 election or, worse still, had he not turned his head at that precise moment in Butler, Pennsylvania, the likelihood of American support for the destruction of Iran’s nuclear weapons program drops to zero. Remove the great men of history, and everything defaults back to the Obama structural settings on the Democratic and also some of the Republican side of the aisle. Even now, you can see it in some of the comms environment in Washington, after the U.S. strikes on Iran, where we’re hearing things from both Democrats and Republicans about the need for a "long-term settlement" with Iran, to be accompanied, no doubt, by endless new rounds of negotiations. Over what, exactly? A new and improved JCPOA, after having destroyed all their centrifuges and facilities? Why? Who cares? President Trump put it best. When asked if he’s interested in restarting negotiations with Iran, the president was dismissive: "I’m not. ... The way I look at it, they fought. The war is done. I could get a statement that they’re not going to go nuclear ... but they’re not going to be doing it anyway. ... I’ve asked [Secretary of State] Marco [Rubio], ’You want to draw up a little agreement for them to sign?’ ... I don’t think it’s necessary." The president is being praised for using military force while eschewing long-term commitments and entanglements. The corollary of that policy is, properly, for America to walk away after the strikes yet threaten to bomb again should the need arise. Everything else, whether it’s a new "deal" or the hope of "integration" for a "moderate" Iran, is static from the Obama signal. Why the D.C. establishment, left and right, feels such an intense attachment to Iran defies any rational cost-benefit analysis related to the national interest. It therefore can only be explained by extrinsic factors that are probably best explained by a shrink who specializes in subjects like "white guilt" or "the burdens of empire"—which means I am obliged to take a pass. I can only observe that this attachment is a powerful one that must therefore signify something important to those who continue to feel its attraction, even when the United States and Iran are at war. Fundamentally, D.C. is a pro-Iran town, where factions on the left and right have shown a core investment in ensuring that Iran has the means and the opportunity to go nuclear as part of their political programs at home. Why? Again, I can only speculate, as it so clearly defies basic calculations of the national interest. Perhaps they see Iran, as Obama did, as a useful tool in factional wars against domestic political rivals. Luckily for the rest of us, the behavior of D.C. sewer dwellers matters far less now, thanks to President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu. The illusion that the D.C. establishment has maintained, hand in hand with Iran, for decades, has been shattered. The proxy armies that formed Iran’s "Axis of Resistance" are no more. We can even pinpoint the moment when Israel pulled the curtain aside: Sept. 27, 2024, the day it killed Nasrallah, whose Iranian masters turned out to be part of the same illusion that he was. Now that the Ayatollah’s monkeys have scattered, whatever remains or does not remain of Iran’s nuclear program doesn’t much matter, even while anonymous sources in Washington do their best to put cards back into the regime’s hand by claiming that Fordow wasn’t "fully" destroyed and other such irrelevancies. The spell is broken, and the regime’s regional alignment, which was at the heart of both its threat to its neighbors and its strategy of deterrence, has been shattered beyond any hope of easy repair. Now it’s time for Washington and regional leaders alike to deal with reality. |
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