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Recent Appearances...

Home Front: Politix

Summarizing the Confirmation Hearings, Day 1: Trump’s defense secretary pick: ‘I support Israel killing every last member of Hamas’

2025-01-15

See the liveblog of yesterday’s hearing here.

[IsraelTimes] Pete Hegseth makes remark during fiery Senate hearing in which Democrats grill him on sexual misconduct claims, past remarks against women serving in combat

US President-elect Donald Trump
...dictatorial for repealing some (but not all) of the diktats of his predecessor, misogynistic because he likes pretty girls, homophobic because he doesn't think gender bending should be mandatory, truly a man for all seasons...
’s contentious nominee for defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, was grilled Tuesday by politicians about past controversies he has been embroiled in, while expressing support for Israel killing all remaining members of Paleostinian terror group Hamas
..the braying voice of Islamic Resistance®,...
in the war in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
Speaking at his confirmation hearing before the US Senate’s Armed Services Committee, Hegseth said: "I support Israel destroying and killing every last member of Hamas."

Notably, Israel’s current war aims do not extend to killing every last member of Hamas, and Israeli officials have told The Times of Israel that even Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has acknowledged as much. Doing so would have Israel bogged down in Gaza indefinitely, given that the terror group is constantly recruiting new fighters.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken

...71st United States secretary of state and a leading light of the corrupt and inept Biden administration. He previously served as deputy national security advisor from 2013 to 2015 and deputy secretary of state from 2015 to 2017 under the corrupt and inept Obama administration. He advocated for the 2003 invasion of Iraq while serving as the Democratic staff director of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee from 2002 to 2008. He was a foreign policy advisor for the Biden 2008 presidential campaign. During his tenure in the Obama administration, Blinken helped craft B.O.'s policy on Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the nuclear program of Iran. We all saw how well each of those worked. After leaving government service, Blinken moved into the private sector, co-founding WestExec Advisors, a lobbying firm...
said Tuesday that Hamas has recruited as many fighters as it has lost during the war.

"I’m a Christian and I robustly support the State of Israel and its existential defense," Hegseth told the Congressional committee when asked if he considers himself a "Christian Zionist."

He charged that the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led terror onslaught against Israel was the direct result of President Joe The Big Guy Biden
...46th president of the U.S. Joe's wife and daughter weren't killed by a drunk driver. He didn't graduate with three or even two degrees, wasn't in the top half of his law class, and his daddy didn't come home from a hard day's work in the mines and play football with the guys. The NAACP hasn't endorsed him every time he's run....
’s 2021 withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan, which he also blamed for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There is no evidence linking either world event to Afghanistan or the Taliban
...Arabic for students...
, which now governs the country. But he said the withdrawal, which was widely criticized, was a public failure of American leadership.

"What was unleashed because of what happened in Afghanistan? The October 7 attacks, an invasion into Ukraine," he said in response to questioning from GOP Senator Jim Banks of Indiana, who’d asked about Afghanistan but not about Israel or Ukraine. Hegseth continued, "The world recognized weakness for what it was."

At a few points in the hearing, discussion turned to one of Hegseth’s many tattoos: a Jerusalem cross of the kind commonly used during the Crusades. During questioning, Hegseth claimed he had "volunteered to guard the inauguration of Joe Biden but was denied the opportunity to serve because I was identified as an Death Eater by my own unit for a Christian tattoo." He later clarified that he was referring to his chest tattoo of the Jerusalem cross.

The cross is one of multiple Crusades-inspired tattoos on Hegseth, who also has a Hebrew variant of Jesus’ name; experts on religious extremism have said they believe the tattoos to be a sign that the nominee is aligned with Christian nationalism, a movement which seeks to apply Christian law to the United States.

Hegseth, though, dismissed the idea that the tattoo in question was Death Eater.

"It’s called the Jerusalem cross. It’s a historic Christian symbol," he said when asked about it by Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer of North Dakota. Hegseth went on to claim that the symbol had also appeared on the funeral program of former U.S. President Jimmy Malaise Carter

...only the second worst president ever. Now the third worst, after Obama and Biden...
, which was held at the Washington National Cathedral.

The answer seemed to satisfy Cramer, who used his follow-up to attack the critics of Hegseth’s tattoo.

"You, Mr. Hegseth, are not an Death Eater," the senator said. "The people who would deny you your expression of faith are the Death Eaters. They’re the racists. They’re the bigots. You’re the one who is protecting their right to be one."

Like members of many previous administrations, Hegseth said his top priority would be shifting the US military priorities away from the Middle East and toward China.

Hegseth, a former Fox News host dogged by allegations of sexual misconduct and lacking experience leading large organizations, was grilled by Democratic members of the committee over his opposition to efforts to promote diversity in the military and to women serving in combat, but he was largely defended by Republicans.

Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand

...Machine non-entity selected to become the successor to Hillary Clinton as Senatrix-for-Life from Noo Yawk. She is running for the Dem presidential nomination in 2020. She has no observable principles, will apparently say anything to anyone, and seemingly lacks any personality of her own....
slammed Hegseth’s past comments as "so hurtful to the men and women who are currently serving in the US military, harmful to morale, harmful to good order and discipline."

Hegseth, a former Army National Guard officer, stuck to his opposition to diversity, equity and inclusion policies, saying they are "dividing troops inside formations, causing commanders to walk on eggshells, not putting meritocracy first."

But he sought to soften past remarks on women serving in combat — something he stated as recently as November 2024 that he opposed.

"I respect every single female service member that has put on the uniform past and present. My critiques... recently and in the past, and from personal experience, have been instances where I’ve seen standards lowered," Hegseth told politicians.

"Women will have access to ground combat roles... given the standards remain high," the 44-year-old said.

US Senate Republicans are keen for Trump’s national security nominees to be confirmed quickly and Democrats
...every time you hear the phrase white people, white supremacy, white anything but paint, you're listening to a Democrat. Ask him/her/it to reimagine something for you; they do that a lot, though not well. They can hear a dog whistle a mile or two away. They invented the spoils system and Tammany Hall, and inspired the addition of the word (Thomas) Nasty to the English language. They want to stop continental drift and repeal the law of unintended side effects...
may agree to fast-track some. But they are determined to throw up roadblocks in front of candidates they see as unfit.

Hegseth has also come under fire for concerns about his past personal conduct, as well as his ability to lead the Pentagon — a massive bureaucracy that employs more than three million people.

Senator Jack Reed, the committee’s ranking Democrat, put it bluntly: "Mr. Hegseth, I do not believe that you are qualified to meet the overwhelming demands of this job."

"We must acknowledge the concerning public reports against you. A variety of sources — including your own writings — implicate you with disregarding the laws of war, financial mismanagement, racist and sexist remarks about men and women in uniform, alcohol abuse, sexual assault, sexual harassment, and other troubling issues," Reed said.

Asked by Republican Senator Roger Wicker
...junior United States Senator from Mississippi, a member of the Republican Party. In December 2007 he was appointed by Governor Haley Barbour to fill the seat vacated by Trent Lott, winning reelection the next year. A lawyer by training, he was previously a Congressman, and before that a state senator...
, the committee chair, about allegations Hegseth has faced, the nominee claimed there was a "coordinated smear campaign" against him.

"I’m not a perfect person, but redemption is real," Hegseth said, later asserting he was "falsely accused" of sexual assault.

He can only afford three Republican rejections and still be confirmed, should every Democrat and independent vote against him.

But he has maintained Trump’s support while the excoriating headlines have multiplied, and Senate Republicans appear open to hearing him out.

Former Democratic congresswoman-turned-Trumpist Tulsi Gabbard, who was tapped for director of national intelligence, is another candidate whose lack of qualifications and experience have raised alarm bells, as have her attitudes toward US adversaries.

Gabbard met Syria’s then-president Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
Oppressor of the Syrians and the Lebs...
in 2017, and declared him "not the enemy." She has also voiced sympathy for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Some pressure on the nominees is expected from both sides of the aisle, especially for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Trump’s nominee for secretary of health and human services, and an anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist.

But US senator and foreign policy hawk Marco Rubio
...The diminutive 13-year-old Republican U.S. Senator from Florida, Secretary of State in the second Trump administration...
of Florida, Trump’s pick for secretary of state, is a sure bet with bipartisan support, and will likely be confirmed before Trump takes office on January 20.

Rubio gets his hearing Wednesday, along with homeland security secretary nominee Kristi Noem, attorney general nominee Pam Bondi, and CIA pick John Ratcliffe, who has been confirmed by the Senate before, as director of national intelligence.

Some of the most potentially fiery
...a single two-syllable word carrying connotations of both incoherence and viciousness. A fiery delivery implies an audience of rubes and yokels, preferably forming up into a mob...
hearings are yet to be scheduled, including for Kennedy and Kash Patel, a conspiracy theorist who is Trump’s nominee to run the FBI.

Link

Home Front: Politix

Townhall liveblog: Trump’s Cabinet Confirmation Hearings Begin - Pete Hegseth is in the hot seat

2025-01-14

PJ Media is liveblogging the hearings here. No doubt other sites Rantburgers read are as well. Links in the comments below, please, dear Reader.

[X]

Pete Hegseth clarified his position on women in combat roles, and I COMPLETELY AGREE!

"In those ground combat roles, what is true is the weight on your back doesn‘t change."

"The weight of the bravo machine gun you might have to carry does not change. Whether it is a man or… pic.twitter.com/bzBYBSl0t6
— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) January 14, 2025

He’s a 20-year veteran with two Bronze Stars and a Combat Infantryman Badge after tours in Iraq and Afghanistan and guard at Gitmo.

He has two Ivy League degrees.

He’s a tireless advocate for veterans.@PeteHegseth is our next Secretary of Defense. pic.twitter.com/LRdleremYx
— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) January 14, 2025

Read: Hegseth Identifies Three Priorities in Opening Statement
[Townhall] Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth’s opening statement was released early Tuesday ahead of his appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee at 9:30 A.M.

In his statement, Hegseth outlines three main priorities: bringing the "warrior ethos" back to the Pentagon, rebuilding the military, and reestablishing deterrence.

Below is a transcript of his remarks:

…As I've said to many of you in our private meetings, when President Trump chose me for this position, the primary charge he gave me was — to bring the warrior culture back to the Department of Defense. He, like me, wants a Pentagon laser-focused on warfighting, lethality, meritocracy, standards, and readiness. That's it. That is my job.

To that end, if confirmed, I'm going to work with President Trump — and this committee — to:

Restore the Warrior Ethos to the Pentagon and throughout our fighting force; in doing so, we will reestablish trust in our military — and address the recruiting, retention and readiness crisis in our ranks. The strength of our military is our unity — our shared purpose — not our differences.

Rebuild our Military, always matching threats to capabilities; this includes reviving our defense industrial base, reforming the acquisition process (no more "Valley of Death" for new defense companies), modernizing our nuclear triad, ensuring the Pentagon can pass an audit, and rapidly fielding emerging technologies.

Reestablish Deterrence. First and foremost, we will defend our homeland — our borders and our skies. Second, we will work with our partners and allies to deter aggression in the Indo-Pacific from the communist Chinese. Finally, we will responsibly end wars to ensure we can prioritize our resources — and reorient to larger threats. We can no longer count on "reputational deterrence" — we need real deterrence.

The Defense Department under Donald Trump will achieve Peace Through Strength. And in pursuing these America First national security goals, we will remain patriotically a-political and stridently Constitutional. Unlike the current administration, politics should play no part in military matters. We are not Republicans or Democrats — we are American warriors. Our standards will be high, and they will be equal (not equitable, that is a very different word).

We need to make sure every warrior is fully qualified on their assigned weapon system, every pilot is fully qualified and current on the aircraft they are flying, and every general or flag officer is selected for leadership based purely on performance, readiness, and merit.

Leaders — at all levels — will be held accountable. And warfighting and lethality — and the readiness of the troops and their families — will be our only focus.

That has been my focus ever since I first put on the uniform as a young Army ROTC cadet at Princeton University in 2001. I joined the military because I love my country and felt an obligation to defend it. I served with incredible Americans in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, Afghanistan and in the streets of Washington, D.C. — many of which are here today. This includes enlisted soldiers I helped become American citizens, and Muslim allies I helped immigrate from Iraq and Afghanistan. And when I took off the uniform, my mission never stopped.

It is true that I don't have a similar biography to Defense Secretaries of the last 30 years. But, as President Trump also told me, we've repeatedly placed people atop the Pentagon with supposedly "the right credentials" — whether they are retired generals, academics, or defense contractor executives — and where has it gotten us? He believes, and I humbly agree, that it's time to give someone with dust on his boots the helm. A change agent. Someone with no vested interest in certain companies or specific programs or approved narratives. …

4 hours ago
Katie Pavlich
Good morning and welcome to the first day of confirmation hearings for President-elect Donald Trump's Cabinet nominees. First up, U.S. Army veteran and former Fox News host Pete Hegseth in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee at 9:30 a.m. eastern. We'll keep you up to speed with developments.

Trump’s Cabinet Confirmation Hearings Begin This Week. Here's the Schedule.

Link

Home Front: WoT

12th Anniversary of the Benghazi Attack – THE BENGHAZI BRIEF- remains the most in-depth research report CTH has ever produced. The brief took two years of research to assemble and contains hundreds of very specific citations supporting it.

2024-09-11

[ConservativeTreehouse] Ten years after the brief was originally written in 2014, nothing within the outline has ever been identified as inaccurate. The full brief has been updated below adding context depth from current events.

Impressive job of work. Very long, very information dense, lots of hot links. It’s much too twisty for me to follow, honestly, being as I am only a junior analyst-in-training (thanks for the job title, SteveS!) It begins:

We know from the Bret Baier interview with Hillary Clinton that she was physically located at her 7th floor office in Washington DC on the night of the attack 9/11/12.

Unfortunately, we also know during the November 2012 Thanksgiving holiday a mysterious fire took place in that building. Well, actually directly above her exact office – cause undetermined.

A “fire” which preceded an unfortunate slip and fall for the Secretary, resulting in a concussion, which led to the discovery of a blood clot, that ultimately delayed her congressional testimony before a Senate Hearing into the events of the night in question.

We know the Libyan uprising began on February 10th of 2011, and we also know that sometime around the end of February 2011 President Obama signed a presidential directive authorizing the State Dept and CIA to begin a covert operation to arm the Libyan “rebels”.

We also know of a Second Presidential Finding Memo authorizing additional CIA covert action in 2012, this time in Syria. However, unlike the 2011 Libyan operation, we do not know the operational name of the second action in 2012 (Syria).

We know the Libyan “rebels” were positioned in two strategic places. Benghazi, and the port city of Darnah, both located in Northeastern Libya.

We know this 2011 Libyan covert operation came to be known as “Operation Zero Footprint“. We know Secretary Clinton and CIA head Panetta were the primary sponsors for the joint State Dept./CIA approach; and we know that specifically because of a U.N. Security Council resolution (unattended by Ambassador Susan Rice) the operation fell under the military command authority of NATO not (important to repeat), NOT, the U.S. Military.

We know by the time operation “Zero Footprint” began, AFRICOM commander General Carter Ham was removed from OPSEC oversight in the Libyan campaign, and NATO commander Admiral James G. Stavridis was in charge.

Stavridis was the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) at the time of the Libyan uprising. He retired as SACEUR in 2013

In 2011, 57-year-old Stavridis was the perfect pick for NATO Libyan intervention considering he is the son of Turkish immigrants. Turkey played a key role in what might be the most politically dangerous aspect of the events to the White House once the goals changed to redirection of the weapons from Operation Zero Footprint.

We know Operation Zero Footprint was the covert transfer of weapons from the U.S to the Libyan “rebels”. We also know the operation avoided the concerns with congressional funding, and potential for public scrutiny, through financing by the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

We also know that officials within the government of Qatar served as the intermediaries for the actual transfer of the weapons, thereby removing the footprint of the U.S. intervention.

We know the entire operation was coordinated and controlled by the State Department and CIA. We also know (from the Senate Foreign Relations Benghazi hearings) that “Zero Footprint” was unknown to the 2011 Pentagon, and/or DoD commanders who would have been tasked with any military response to the 9/11/12 attack – namely AFRICOM General Carter Ham.

However, it would be implausible to think that then Defense Secretary Bob Gates or Joint Chiefs Chair Admiral McMullen were completely unaware of the operation. Even today, despite the numerous hearings and reports, this aspect remains murky.

Both Defense Secretary Gates and Joint Chiefs Chair McMullen were in place when Operation Zero Footprint began. However, both retired from their jobs in Sept of 2011, and were replaced by Leon Panetta and Martin Dempsey respectively.

Leon Panetta was CIA Director at the beginning of Operation Zero Footprint (March 2011) and was replaced by CIA Director David Petraeus in the fall of 2011 as Panetta replaced Bob Gates and became Secretary of Defense.

However, Panetta (now as Def Sec) and JC Martin Dempsey were the two who initially briefed President Obama on the night of Sept 11th 2012. This is an important fact to remember – because of his previous CIA role in constructing Zero Footprint, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta definitely had knowledge of the intents of the joint State Dept/CIA mission in Benghazi, Martin Dempsey may not have.

We know the White House appears to have followed “The Intelligence Oversight Act of 1980” in informing the congressional “Gang of Eight” of Zero Footprint.

The Gang of Eight in 2011 would have included: Speaker – John Boehner, Minority Leader – Nancy Pelosi; House Permanent Select Committee on Intel Chairman – Mike Rogers, and his Democrat counterpart Charles Ruppersberger; Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid; along with Senate Intel Chair Diane Feinstein and her Republican counterpart, Saxby Chambliss.

From Hillary interviews we also know the White House liaison for Secretary Clinton and CIA Director Leon Panetta during Operation Zero Footprint was National Security Advisor To the President, Tom Donilon.

With this information we can assemble a cast of people “IN THE KNOW” of Operation Zero Footprint on two specific date blocks. March 2011 through Pre 9/11/12 attack – and – Post 9/11/12 attack forward.

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Israel-Palestine-Jordan

What America Can Learn From Israel On The Battlefield

2024-06-11

[DanielGreenfield]America has never successfully liberated and held territory from Islamic terrorists. After thousands dead in Afghanistan and Iraq: both countries are now controlled by Islamic terrorists.

Many top current and former defense officials who oversaw both disasters, despite a track record of zero wins, have been criticizing Israel for not following in their footsteps.

Everyone from former Gen. David Petraeus to current Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. C.Q. Brown offer the familiar criticisms that Israel is not following the COIN or counterinsurgency model.

"Not only do you have to actually go in and clear out whatever adversary you are up against, you have to go in, hold the territory and then you’ve got to stabilize it," Chief Brown argued.

The problem with this model is that it failed and left a lot of widows and orphans along the way.

The United States spent over 50 years losing wars, prestige and young men by trying to follow the familiar strategy for defeating guerrilla armies through conventional warfare followed by efforts to hold and stabilize the territories. And what exactly do we have to show for it?

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) discarded this conventional wisdom for another approach.

Rather than trying to hold territory filled with an enemy population among whom the terrorists move, it has used its manpower to attack concentrations of enemy forces, moving quickly and at times unpredictably, while refusing to get bogged down by trying to ’hold’ any particular area.

This strategy has frustrated the entire Hamas war plan which like that of Jihadis in Iraq and Afghanistan depended on using terror attacks to pin military units in place, forcing them to defend and patrol a territory, and then exploiting their weaknesses to launch ambushes.

...When Israel ’re-cleared’ Al-Shifa hospital, it took by surprise and captured much of the leadership of Islamic Jihad and some Hamas leaders as well. Rather than a weakness, re-clearing is a strength because when terrorists return to territory that Israel is now familiar with, it can turn the tables and launch surprise attacks on those old positions.

Israel is not fighting to take land, but to grind down enemy forces wherever they operate.

"The measure of effectiveness will not be enemy killed," Gen McChrystal told the Senate about his Afghanistan strategy in 2009. McChrystal’s strategy killed a lot of Americans instead.

Israel is betting that McChrystal is wrong. It’s measuring effectiveness in just that way.

Link

Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Nation Building's Last Stand in Gaza

2024-05-18

[FrontPage] Rafah isn’t just the last stand for Hamas, but for an entire foreign policy establishment.

The desperate effort to keep Israeli soldiers from going into the last Gaza stronghold of the Islamic terrorist organization is about more than the sum of the geopolitical parts. After nation building failed in Afghanistan and Iraq, and everywhere else it’s been tried, the radioactive ’Palestinian’ nation building experiment from over 30 years ago is its last hope.

Long before George W. Bush tackled nation building after 9/11, his father began the era of turning Muslim terrorist groups into countries with the project to give the PLO a state. Where the first Bush failed, Bill Clinton succeeded with the Oslo accords and a Nobel prize for Arafat.

“Succeeded”, anyway. He got the accords signed, and then Arafat promptly ignored the responsibilities he signed off on, while happily skimming billions off the top of the international and Israeli donations.

The PLO state failed long before Iran took over Iraq and the Taliban took over Afghanistan. There had never been anything peaceful, democratic or aspirational about Arafat and the PLO. By the time that Hamas had captured Gaza after winning democratic elections, it had long been clear to everyone outside of D.C. that rather than ending terrorism, statehood had incarnated it.

Any ’Palestinian’ state was doomed to be a terrorist state. The only question is who would run it. And the answer was that the biggest and deadliest terrorists would command popular support.

When Iraq and Afghanistan went bad, America could just leave, Israelis did not have that luxury. Sharon forcibly expelled the Jews living in Gaza to the other side of a border wall, but despite all the sob stories that the terrorists were living in an "open air concentration camp" with five-star hotels and mansions, walls weren’t that hard to get through even before Oct 7.

Israel has been stuck living next door to a failed thirty year nation-building experiment gone bad. And everyone in the international community is worried that the Oct 7 war will see it taken apart.

Lately the nation building experts have taken to warning that Israel is doing it the wrong way. Former CIA Director David Petraeus who also oversaw American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, has been arguing that Israel needs to pivot to a "counterinsurgency" model. And then we’re back to "winning hearts and minds" instead of actually trying to win a war.

The Biden administration has never stopped insisting that Israel needs a "day after" plan for rebuilding Gaza under a PLO government and some "moderate" terrorists from Hamas. Three generations after it became the norm, fighting a war without nation building as an endgame is so impossible that warfare experts can’t even understand what they’re seeing in Israel.

But among all the other problems with nation building is that it doesn’t work. And the Israelis who have been living next to the original chernobyl of nation building know it better than anyone.

Nation building has failed in every single Muslim country it’s been tried, not just by the United States after 9/11, but by the British between WWI and WWII. The entire Middle East is one long great nation building disaster shaped by primeval nation building experiments such as the Sykes-Picot agreement, the Hashemite monarchies and finally the recession of colonialism.

But it’s not just Muslim countries where nation building has backfired in familiar patterns.

D.C. elites can look to Haiti where decades of interference led to one disaster after another. The armed gangs overrunning the island nation started life as police forces. Democracy initiatives just worsened tensions and led to murderous outbreaks of political violence.

The same situation abounds across much of Africa, and parts of Latin America and Asia, where no amount of nation building could overcome tribalism, gang violence and political extremists.

Our nation building fails even worse than the British variety because it follows the American model of trying to overcome tribalism, assuming that democracy will empower individuals instead of blocs, and that having elected officials control institutions will lead to good government when in reality the majority seizes power and then viciously suppresses minorities.

American foreign policy believes that no people or group are good or bad, they just lack sufficient representation or the ability to participate in democratic elections. And that any governments that suppress any group, no matter how evil, are inherently illegitimate.
Any group but anyone who opposes the Left's most recent craze.
...Our "day after" plans for Afghanistan and Iraq cost us a generation of fighting men for nothing. Even the ’Surge’, the last stand of the counterinsurgency model, did nothing to stop Iraq from falling into the hands of Iran which is now using it to launch attacks on American bases.

"Truly winning this war would require creating some sort of government in Gaza that could gain the support of the people and prevent Hamas from returning after Israeli soldiers pull out," ex-neocon Max Boot argues in his Washington Post column.

But what if killing Jews is what the ’people’ in Gaza really want? Just as what the Shiites in Iraq really wanted was to step on the Sunnis and the Kurds, what the Sunnis in Iraq really wanted was to kill the Shiites and rape the Yazidis, and what the Kurds wanted was their own country. And just as a whole lot of Afghans really wanted to lock up women and mandate beards again.

Nation building’s faulty premise is that people everywhere want what Americans want.
Or used to. Nowadays???

Link

Israel-Palestine-Jordan

With Iraq on his mind, US ‘savior-general’ Petraeus points at a way to victory in Gaza

2024-03-18

[IsraelTimes] Hamas
...one of the armed feet of the Moslem Brüderbund millipede,...
must be destroyed, argues ex-general and CIA director David Petraeus in Tel Aviv, and then Israel must pivot to a counterinsurgency.

As the campaign to eliminate Hamas stretches into its sixth month, a storied American general credited with changing the course of the Iraq War now sees a clear path to victory for Israel in Gazoo

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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

Former CIA chief Petraeus: Ukraine does not have enough people on the front line

2024-03-18

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] Ukraine lacks not only weapons and ammunition, but also people at the front, former CIA chief David Petraeus said in an interview with the Italian newspaper la Stampa.

According to him, the leadership of Ukraine should reconsider the procedure for conscription into military service. The front line fighters are on average over 40 years old.

“Kyiv must review the rotation of troops, equip the rear, expand conscription into the army. I know this is a sensitive issue and challenge, but it must be resolved quickly,” Petraeus said.

The British newspaper Financial Times, citing the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, reported on March 13 about a rotation being prepared in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is expected that approximately 330 thousand soldiers and officers at the front will be replaced by recruits after the adoption of the law on new mobilization rules. They plan to call up up to 500 thousand people and use the rest of the new mobilized to make up for losses and other needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As Regnum reported, in February, Ukrainian commanders spoke about an acute shortage of manpower, which could cause the front to collapse at any moment.

Link

Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Ex-CIA chief Petraeus: 'To defeat Hamas, Israel must get Gaza running again'

2024-03-08

Teaching your grandmother to suck eggs, dear boy.

[Jerusalem Post] Ex-CIA chief David Petraeus on Thursday said that for Israel to beat Hamas, it must not only take apart its remaining battalions in Rafah but also must get Gaza running again for Palestinian civilians.

Isn’t that the job of the Palestinian civilians?

Speaking at the INSS Conference in Tel Aviv, Petraeus said, "Only by getting Gaza running again for Palestinian civilians, whether in stable food distribution, with hospitals properly running, and eventually with a general return of civil society, will Israel truly be able to end Hamas’s source of support."

The former CIA chief stated Israel cannot "stop until Hamas has been destroyed and cannot be reconstituted."
Some bits of truth found hidden in the baloney.
In addition, he said Israel must get Gazans back to their homes, demonstrate to people that aid is being given in a stable way, "that hospitals are functioning, that construction will return," and that society goes back to functioning...Then you need to implement a plan that keeps them from being able to reconstitute."

Despite his support for completely destroying Hamas, he said that Israel must eventually come to terms with a two-state solution with the Palestinians.

Let them prove themselves with limited self rule before getting more ambitious.

Link

Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

'Breakthrough under Rabotino: the West celebrates the victory of Ukraine

2023-09-02

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Vladimir Kornilov

[RIA] So, the "summer counter-offensive", which before that was "spring", gradually turned into an "autumn" one. To assess its "success", it is enough to recall the goals that were drawn in Kyiv and Washington.

For example, Volodymyr Zelensky announced his intention to spend his summer vacation in Crimea in 2023. And the talking head of all Western TV channels, retired American General Ben Hodges, who commented on the situation at the front day and night, constantly repeated until the spring of this year that "Crimea will be liberated before the end of summer 2023."

Summer is over, and now the Western media are trumpeting: "Ukraine's successes on the Southern Front may open the way to Crimea." That is, something clearly did not grow together with the summer vacation.

The funniest thing is watching those same talking heads now lash out in anger at those who ask uncomfortable questions about where those promised "wins" are. Adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine Mykhailo Podolyak recently accused these critics of "infantilism" and advised "to watch Rambo less". on the embankment of Yalta". He even added the word "I guarantee". And now he calls those who remember his "guarantees" "infants"!

For Western audiences, the former head of the CIA, David Petraeus, plays about the same role . Now he urges commentators to "moderate their pessimism" and is surprised at their expectations of quick victories. As if it weren't Petraeus personally, the day before the start of the notorious "Ukraine counter-offensive", he convinced the Western audience that "everything will be decided within 72-96 hours." That is, the same people who created unrealistic expectations of "an early victory over Russia" among Ukrainians and Western burghers are now accusing their audience of having these expectations!

These same experts periodically invent current "victories". Now all the Western media are simply crammed with articles and stories about the "liberation of the strategically important village of Rabotino", where no more than 500 people lived in the best pre-war years.

The Times provocateur Maksim Tucker happily writes: "Ukraine's flag flies again over Rabotino." And then he reports that this opens the way to Melitopol. The most curious thing is that the same author in the same newspaper literally a month before this article reported in the same terms that "Ukraine liberated the village of Staromayorskoe" and this allegedly "opened the road to Mariupol . " And even if one of the readers of this newspaper asked.

Another propagandist of Ukraine, the French Maidan singer Bernard-Henri Levy, who presents himself as an expert on this area (because, can you imagine, he was once in Gul'yaipole!), tells the audience: "liberation of Rabotino" means that "a) they (Ukrainians) passed Russian mines fields, b) the road to Melitopol is open." And it doesn’t matter that from Rabotino to Melitopol is more than 70 kilometers, and Ukraine has no idea how to break through to the fortified Tokmak, which is 20 kilometers from the front and to which, even according to another Russophobic propagandist from the German Bild, Julian Repke, “five more lines of defense ".

But Repke, unlike Levi, was not in Gulyaipole - how could he know the truth!

We will not here analyze the true situation at the front and the question of which quarters of Rabotino are under whose control are - we will leave this to the compilers of daily reports. But even if we assume that Western propaganda is not lying (it’s already ridiculous, right?), then it’s enough to recall what it also wrote about Russian defense lines at the start of “Ukraine’s spring-summer-autumn counteroffensive.”

I remember that in June, detailed satellite images of Russian fortifications in the area, published by The New York Times, were distributed throughout the Western media and social networks . Why not look at them now to all those who scream that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have passed the minefields of Russia, overcame the "dragon's teeth", "broke through the first, and therefore the main line of defense of the Russians"?

Yes, because these pictures showed that the first of the three main defensive lines to Tokmak is located not just south of Rabotino, but also south of Novoprokopovka, which, even according to Western propagandists, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet reached close.

At the same time, we must not forget that for two months after the publication of these images (and this is also recognized by Western propagandists), Russian engineering and sapper units continued to expand and strengthen the defense lines south of the current combat zone! Accordingly, Ukraine, having lost thousands of its best fighters and hundreds of pieces of Western equipment in the battle for the possession of one small village, has not even encountered the level of defense that the Russian army prepared for it further south!

But, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a recent interview, "society needs victories." It is in the absence of such that they invent them!

And he certainly did not even mean Ukrainian society. Kiev understands and has long recognized that the main threat to it is the weariness of Western states from the war and the constant failures of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Moreover, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba recently stressed that the main danger for the Kiev regime lies in the unfolding election race in the United States . But he assured that "all this will pass."

It will, of course, "pass away", only before the end of the American elections - even more than a year. And during all this time, it will be more and more difficult to feed your sponsors with promises of a "fast victory" in the absence of even the slightest success. Hence, with enviable regularity, the names “Staromayorskoye” or “Rabotino”, which are difficult to pronounce for the Western ear, appear in the information space. And they will continue to appear. If only these bored "infantile" burghers did not ask uncomfortable questions and did not try to remind the authors of victorious reports of their own words of a month ago.

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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

The End of Offensive Warfare

2023-06-23

[American Greatness] Ukraine’s vaunted counteroffensive is not going well. In the months leading up to its launch, proponents said it would be "decisive." Former American general David Petraeus predicted "the Ukrainians [would] achieve significant breakthroughs and accomplish much more than most analysts are predicting." But, instead, the front lines have barely budged, and Ukraine has lost enormous numbers of men and equipment.

This debacle provides important lessons for the United States and students of warfare more generally.

NATO DOCTRINE RUNS INTO REALITY
Ukraine is using new tactics, equipment, and operational plans for its shock brigades after months of intensive training by NATO. NATO built these units in its own image, prioritizing offense, maneuver, and combined arms tactics.

Unfortunately, what looks good on paper does not always work in the field.

Extensive minefields, drone-sighted artillery, and entrenched defenders mean Ukrainian forces can barely advance into "no man’s land." They are being stopped at the skirmish line and have gotten nowhere close to the second and third echelons of Russian defenders. Dozens of Leopard II tanks and Bradley infantry fighting vehicles—NATO’s state-of-the-art land warfare equipment—have been blown up and set on fire by mines, kamikaze drones, and artillery during the stalled offensive.

In spite of much bragging in recent months about its superior training, equipment, and operational art, the NATO-trained brigades have not performed particularly well. Well-choreographed combined arms tactics were supposed to provide a significant advantage, but they neglected mine-clearance and air defense. Thus, Russian attack helicopters have had a field day blowing up Ukrainian armor at leisure. Judging by the barely avoided friendly-fire incident shown here, the Ukrainians are not maneuvering their equipment with a lot of panache, even when they’re not under helicopter attack. A lot is going wrong.

While NATO devoted a lot of energy and money to training, it has little recent experience with this kind of warfare. NATO training was based on an elaborate theory of how conventional wars would go, but experience is necessary to refine and modify such doctrines. It is telling that the one brigade making any significant advances during the counteroffensive was not one of the new ones, but rather one made up of veteran Ukrainian soldiers using ex-Soviet equipment.

Finally, as with the initial stages of the Russian invasion, the Ukrainians have neglected the principle of mass. Their brigades are advancing here and there, but the only way something could conceivably be achieved is by massing a dozen or more brigades in a narrow and vulnerable part of the front.

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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

The infobomb exploded suddenly: Britain doused Zelensky with a cold shower.

2023-06-07

Direct Translation via Google Translate.
[RusOnline] Viktor Orban said that Ukraine cannot win, while former CIA chief David Petraeus argued the opposite at the same conference. He described in colors the confident victory of the glorified Ukrainian army and the upcoming defeat of the Russian troops. However, the latest report from the British think tank RUSI on the Russian army in Ukraine could be a cold shower for US and NATO propagandists anticipating a Kyiv victory. It is reported by Tsargrad.

Orban is ours On the first day of the Qatar Economic Forum in Doha, organized by the American concern Bloomberg, the editor-in-chief of the news agency of the same name, John Micklethwaite, interviewed Viktor Orban on stage. Using all possible tricks, Micklethwaite tried to channel the Hungarian prime minister's answers to questions about Ukraine and China into the "correct" channel of US-NATO rhetoric.

But it didn't work with Orban. He drew applause (mostly from the Arab public) when he criticized Washington and the EU leadership for trying to interfere in Hungary's internal affairs and decide what is right and what is wrong. When Orban stressed that his policy is based on what is good for his country, which includes maintaining good relations with Russia and China, the audience burst into applause again. Regarding the armed conflict in the Donbass, the Hungarian leader bluntly stated that "Ukraine will not be able to win the war against Russia unless NATO sends its troops there directly - which it is not ready for and which Hungary will reject in any case."

The surprised face of the journalist stretched even more when his interlocutor clarified: “If you look at the reality, the numbers, the situation and the fact that NATO is not ready to send its troops, it becomes obvious that the poor Ukrainians will not see victory on the battlefield. This is my position."

FALL OF BAHMUT
Meanwhile, after the capture of the Ukrainian "fortress" Bakhmut by Russian troops, the US and NATO elites found themselves in a difficult situation. The losses of the Ukrainians during the months of the defense of the city were colossal, primarily due to the fact that Vladimir Zelensky personally attached great strategic importance to Bakhmut. The city had to be held under any circumstances.

But in the end, Bakhmut was taken by the "Wagnerites" with the support of artillery and aviation of the Russian Ministry of Defense. Russian artillery is qualitatively and quantitatively much superior to Ukrainian, despite large-scale supplies from the West. It was through the efforts of the Russian "gods of war" that the battle for Bakhmut acquired the infamous name "meat grinder".

More and more brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine went to the city, where they came under fire from Russian artillery, which shot all positions, roads and houses during the months of the war. The ground units were replaced by new units, which were replenished at the expense of forcibly mobilized people, but the same fate awaited them. Many Western military experts, such as, for example, a retired US Army Colonel Douglas MacGregor, who is very respected throughout the world, have long come to the conclusion that the Ukrainian army has lost tens of thousands of soldiers in Bakhmut alone.

The losses of PMC "Wagner" they estimated as much less significant for the following reasons: Firstly, the fighters of PMC "Wagner" are professionally trained and excellently armed - unlike their opponents. And this was clearly visible if you look at the much smaller losses of "musicians" during the battles in urban areas; secondly, the "Wagnerites" were less likely to be subjected to massive shelling from the Ukrainian artillery, which, moreover, has become less and less shells in recent months; thirdly, the PMC fighters acted mainly as defenders of the positions already won earlier, while the Ukrainian troops had to attack again and again in order to recapture the territories occupied by the enemy, while suffering heavy losses.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner PMC, hinted at this when he spoke about the "Bakhmut meat grinder." According to him, the tactics of grinding the Armed Forces of Ukraine was deliberately chosen on the orders of General Surovikin, the Russian commander-in-chief of the front in eastern Ukraine, in order to pull as many Ukrainian soldiers as possible into Bakhmut and then destroy them.

Petraeus came out from behind the stove For the Zelensky regime and its US and NATO aides, the fall of Bakhmut means not only a bitter military defeat, but also a political embarrassment that does not fit into the narrative that “Ukraine is winning.” And it is this narrative that representatives of the US-led “rules-based order” around the world intend to support.

So, the day after Viktor Orban's speech at the Qatar Economic Forum, one could hear how a retired American general, former CIA chief David Petraeus, in iridescent colors, described in a conversation with the same John Micklethwaite the upcoming victory of the Ukrainian army, the collapse and even the disorderly flight of the Russian armies from the Donbass. Since the unprovoked, internationally violating United States attack on Iraq in 2003, Petraeus has served as supreme commander of a brutal US occupation force, including the Abu Ghraib torture prison.

Later, for his services, he was unanimously appointed by the US Senate to the post of director of the CIA. For the last 10 years he has been a partner of the international asset management and investment company KKR. Thanks to all these qualities, the relevant American media such as Foreign Affairs have repeatedly included Petraeus in the list of the 100 best intellectuals.

Thus, a retired US general, former head of the CIA and partner in an investment company has an aura of respect because this person knows what he is talking about. Asked by an interviewer if Viktor Orban was right when he said that Ukraine could not win, Petraeus replied: “I think he is on the wrong side of what will someday be history. I think Ukraine will show what can happen when "The army is well trained and equipped with Western weapons. Ukraine has a significant additional force that is well managed, in contrast to the Russian forces, which have miscalculated their forces and have been fighting for more than 15 months."

The retired American general believes that “the Russians have suffered colossal losses, much more than in the first months of the war, and much more than they suffered in a whole decade in Afghanistan. They are poorly trained, they have no coordination. They are poorly armed. They are poorly managed

"Relations within the army are based on abuse. And they will face the most difficult task of retreating under enemy fire, because they are in front of their defensive lines. This will not end well for them. In fact, I think they will collapse, in some cases they will even fall apart."

Further, Petraeus began to describe the forthcoming UAF counteroffensive, which has already become a talk of the town: “Ukrainians have at least six new tank brigades. In addition, they have many additional brigades with special elements of combat support and support of combat services. And I think that they will cope much better than they think." When such a high-ranking person as Petraeus, with his connections in the highest circles around the world, using a lot of "facts", so convincingly says that Ukraine, with all its aces up its sleeve, cannot but win, who can disagree with him?

Who in German government and editorial offices would not want to believe an American expert? Or, to put it another way, who would dare to doubt the words of a high-flying American intellectual, a military expert, given all the "factology" created from fake news? Report "Everything is lost!"

Despite the current boom in military propaganda through fake news about Ukraine and Russia, from time to time, thanks to a fortunate combination of circumstances, the interested public can catch a timid ray of truth in any media specializing in military analytics. In this case, we are talking about the report of the "venerable" British military think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) dated May 19 under the title.

The authors of the report, Dr. Jack Walting and Nick Reynolds, note that the Russian army is "a structure that has become better able to cope with operational tasks over time, and also learned to anticipate new threats."

According to RUSI experts, Russian troops pose a serious problem for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, whose losses are estimated at 300-500 thousand soldiers. The Armed Forces of Ukraine lose hundreds of their fighters and mercenaries daily, mainly in protracted positional battles.

The heavy losses of Ukraine are, according to British experts, a paradox, since the losses in defense are usually lower than in the offensive. Experience shows that this ratio is one to two or even one to three. But in Ukraine, this postulate has been turned on its head, and not because Ukrainian soldiers are afraid or unable to fight, and certainly not because of a lack of weapons (NATO deliveries made the Neo-Bandera the most well-armed army in Europe after Russia).

This low efficiency of the Ukrainian army is more likely due to the fact that the Russian troops quickly learn from their mistakes, change and improve tactics and quickly adapt to any new military situation. The British also report that the Russian electronic warfare (EW) system is still very powerful - at least one head system is installed for every 10 km of the front line.

"These systems are primarily aimed at combating drones. Ukraine is losing, as before, about 10,000 drones a month. The Russian EW system is also capable of intercepting and decrypting real-time messages from Motorola tactical communications systems with 256-bit encryption, which are widely used by the Ukrainian military," experts say.

The report also notes that Russian air defense systems are connected directly to powerful radar stations. In July 2022, the Russian military moved their headquarters to fortified structures: "They connected their headquarters to the Ukrainian telecommunications cable network, which already existed in the territories occupied by the Russian army, which significantly reduced the possibility of intercepting radio communications and its electronic signature."

As for military aviation, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, at least 480 Ukrainian combat aircraft and helicopters have been destroyed since February 24, 2022. Ukraine also no longer has a single operating military airfield. British experts especially note the extremely successful use of 500-kilogram FAB bombs by the Russian Air Force. These FABs are dropped from an average height from a distance of about 70 km from the target.

With the help of wings and GPS guidance, they hit the target. Experts suggest that the Russian Air Force does not want to endanger their pilots from Ukrainian air defense, so the FABs are dropped from a safe distance. In this regard, experts note that "the Ukrainian military has established that Russia has large stocks of FAB-500s and is systematically converting them into glide bombs."

At the same time, they note the Russian advantage in missiles, including multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). "Russian gunners have also improved their ability to fire from multiple positions and change positions quickly, making them less vulnerable to counter-battery fire," RUSI analysts said.

The British report gave a particularly high rating to the Russian engineering troops, which proved to be "one of the strongest branches of the military." It goes on to say the following: Russian sappers set up complex obstacles and field fortifications along the entire front line - concrete-lined trenches and command bunkers, wire fences, "hedgehogs", anti-tank ditches and complex minefields.

The Russian demining system is extensive and combines anti-tank and anti-personnel mines, the latter often having multiple activation mechanisms, making them difficult to deactivate. Then RUSI experts come to a disappointing conclusion for the former American General Petraeus and NATO: "All this is a serious tactical problem for the Ukrainian offensive operations."

So what? Petraeus, of course, is pursuing absolutely propagandistic goals, distributing an interview that the Western media will then disassemble into quotes, explaining to the layman why they need to "be patient a little more, and Russia will lose." The former Tseraushnik understands the importance of an information victory over Moscow. But wars are not won by media victories alone. Russian troops have clearly learned a lot in recent months. It will be interesting to read what Petraeus will say when the Russian flag is raised in Lvov...

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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

'It's worse than you thought.' Ukraine reveals the goals of the counteroffensive

2023-04-27

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[RIA Novosti] Kyiv has been preparing a strike since the end of autumn, but every time it delays for a couple of months. And now, judging by the publications in the Western and Ukrainian media, the decisive spring battles have been moved to the summer. What is the reason for this - in the material of RIA Novosti.

WAITING FOR A MIRACLE
According to the forecast of the former director of the CIA and ex-commander of US and NATO forces in Afghanistan, David Petraeus, Ukraine will launch a counteroffensive in late May - early June. He believes that the blow will be very strong and will allow cutting the land corridor to the Crimea. The Politico edition reported two directions: to the Crimea and from the north to the Donbass. In any case, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be in motion in May, the article says.

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkura recalled the weather. In the spring, Ukrainians were prevented by rains. The Bild newspaper, citing leading NATO analysts, warned that everything would be decided in the next six months. The main battles will unfold in the LPR and the Zaporozhye region, the German edition claims.

Active actions have been expected from Kyiv for a long time. The Financial Times wrote back in December that the exhaustion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine deprived Ukraine of the chances of success in the winter campaign. It was necessary to replenish the arsenals and equip new units.

HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF
In an April interview with El Pais, the commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Kharkiv region, Serhiy Melnyk, acknowledged the plight of the Ukrainian army. There is a lack of equipment and people, especially well-trained ones. The personnel units suffered heavy losses. At the same time, Melnik tried to convince the journalist that there was no forced mobilization, all the fighters were volunteers. Meanwhile, men are prohibited from traveling abroad, summons to the draft board are handed in anywhere.

CNN believes that even the reinforcement of Western tanks will not lead to an immediate turning point in the course of hostilities. First, Ukrainians need to learn how to drive cars. Secondly, it is difficult to establish a full-fledged maintenance.

Mark Milley, head of the Pentagon Chiefs of Staff Committee, urged Kyiv not to perceive American tanks as a "silver bullet". According to him, the M1 Abrams is the best combat vehicle in the world, but it will not be possible to win only with its help.

APPEARANCE OF SUCCESS
Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Anna Malyar assures that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are already being attacked - in Bakhmut and Marinka. At the same time, she urged "not to publicly reduce the counteroffensive only to some kind of active offensive actions." Such operations include defensive battles, as well as the recruitment and training of new fighters.

The commander of the Eastern Group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Colonel-General Alexander Syrsky, emphasizes that counterattacks in Bakhmut make it possible to contain Russia. In the oncoming battles there, Moscow allegedly loses the best units.

The head of the GUR, Kirill Budanov, said: before the end of spring, the Ukrainian army will enter the Crimea. "We still have time. Quite an achievable task," he explained.

According to him, Russia is sitting on the defensive, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be given a "decisive battle." Moscow will suffer irreparable losses. And there is no need to speculate on the pace and volume of Western arms deliveries - most have no idea about this, Budanov added.

UKRAINE IS WORTH PR
It is noteworthy that experts in both Russia and Ukraine consider talk of a counteroffensive more important in terms of PR than the real state of affairs on the battlefield. In particular, Ruslan Bortnyk, director of the Ukrainian Institute of Politics, notes that rumors about an impending powerful strike allow Kyiv to beg for more help. In addition, the threat of an attack forces Moscow to form reserves and think about defense, without throwing everything it has into battle.

“However, if the promises of the Ukrainian leadership do not come true in the summer and the soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not drink coffee in Crimea, closer to winter the propaganda will turn against its creators. The level of disappointment in statesmen will increase. In this case, Zelensky should have some kind of backup plan. the team will have to pass off local success as a strategic victory," Bortnik explained in an interview.

Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko believes that Zelensky made a mistake when he started talking about a large-scale counteroffensive.

"Attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are possible only in certain directions, and it’s not a fact that we will be able to break through. Apparently, we are heading for a long-term positional confrontation, for which society is poorly prepared," the expert said.

Denis Denisov, an analyst at the Financial University under the Russian government, points out: if Kyiv had the opportunity to launch a counteroffensive, this would have happened in the winter. "A successful attack would confirm the correctness of the course towards the militarization of Ukraine and the effectiveness of economic assistance. Ukrainians would receive real proof that Zelensky is keeping his promises. But so far we are only hearing statements that are not supported by anything, and the conflict is becoming less intense, as in 2014-2015 m," he says.

In general, experts agree that so far there are no signs of preparations for a strike on Crimea. Zelensky will have to seriously change either military strategy or rhetoric. Otherwise, the high expectations of Ukrainians will bring down his rating.

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