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India-Pakistan
Drones are killing off Qaeeda 'senior management'
2009-01-03
The top hierarchy of al-Qaeda has taken such a hit from US missile strikes that Osama bin Laden and his deputy have had to replace people in the terrorist organisation with men they have never met, according to Western intelligence sources.

A dozen of al-Qaeda's "senior management" have been killed by Predator drone attacks, which have been so effective in locating their targets that the militant group has been forced to move from traditional outdoor training camps to classroom-style facilities that are hidden from view.

After the success of the new weapons, which are unmanned and operate by remote control from 15,000 feet, the United States is to step up its drone attacks. On January 1 Hellfire missiles, operated from an air force base in Nevada, hit targets in the South Waziristan region of Pakistan, close to Afghanistan, and yesterday two missiles slammed into the stronghold where Baitullah Mehsud, the Pakistani Taleban leader, is believed to live.

The killings have had a huge impact on the structure, organisation and effectiveness of al-Qaeda, limiting the capacity for commanders to liaise with each other, further separating the top command from the lower ranks and introducing a high degree of uncertainty and a constant awareness of the likelihood of death lurking in the skies.

Bin Laden, al-Qaeda's figurehead leader and Ayman al-Zawahiri, his Egyptian deputy, have had to rely on the loyalty of their associates to stay alive and remain hidden from the American surveillance networks.

Predators, armed with Hellfire missiles and precision-guided penetration bombs, have already succeeded in targeting two individuals believed to have ranked number three in the al-Qaeda chain of command: Hamza Rabia and Abu Laith al-Libi. They have also killed Mohammed Atef, reputedly the chief of military operations, and several of the group's most experienced explosives and biological weapons specialists.

One of the consequences of the Predator attacks has been that al-Qaeda has had to give up its traditional terrorist training camps. Sending recruits out into the open to receive military-style jihadist instruction in combat and bomb-making has become too risky. "As soon as they are spotted, the Americans attack with Predators," a counter-terrorist source said. Now terrorist training in the tribal regions in Pakistan is carried out "in the classroom", less visible from the air and making it more difficult for the Americans to monitor the scale of the recruiting.

Communications between the top echelon and operatives is now restricted to human couriers. Mobile and satellite phones are never used by the core leaders because they know that American signals intelligence will be able to pinpoint individuals as soon as the devices are switched on.

Since the Americans acquired missile-armed Predators and the newer model, called Reaper, the CIA and Pentagon have focused on killing terrorist targets rather than monitoring and tracking the activities of suspected al-Qaeda figures. The killing option has led to an increasingly successful record.

Despite a number of attacks that led to civilian deaths, in more recent Predator missions -- particularly over the past four months -- the intelligence has been more accurate. In one mission in November a Predator strike on a compound in the village of Ali Khel in North Waziristan killed two of the most senior al-Qaeda operatives, Abu Zubair al-Masri, an Egyptian explosives expert, and Rashid Rauf, the British Pakistani who is alleged to have been linked to the Heathrow bomb plot of August 2006. There were claims that Rauf was not in the compound at the time, but counter-terror officials firmly believe that he was there and that he died.

The killing of al-Libi, reputed to be a number three in the al-Qaeda hierarchy, in January last year was one of the biggest blows for bin Laden and al-Zawahiri. He was head of the Libyan fighting group of al-Qaeda and was regarded as an important director. He was also a charismatic, respected religious figure and operational planner who could smooth the way for al-Qaeda in the tribal areas whenever there were confrontations between the terrorist leaders and their Pakistani hosts over the constant threat posed by the American Predators.

Another serious loss to al-Qaeda was that of Abu Abeda al-Masri, the head of external relations who died of natural causes after becoming ill with hepatitis. He was a significant loss in terms of the threat to the UK because his role was to train Britons.

Another key Predator victim was Abu Suleiman al-Jusayi (or al-Jazairi), an Algerian who was an al-Qaeda trainer and explosives specialist. He had been involved in a series of European terrorist networks. He was killed in the Bajaur tribal district of Pakistan in June.

One of the most sought-after American targets was Abu Kabbah al-Masri, al-Qaeda's most experienced biological weapons scientist. He was engaged in the chemical and biological trials that were uncovered in Afghanistan in 2001. He was known to be continuing his experiments in the tribal regions of Pakistan. He was tracked by the Americans and killed by a Hellfire missile in the second half of last year. Midhat Mursi al-Sayid Umar, another poisons expert, is also believed to have been killed by the Americans in a Predator attack.

The only al-Qaeda commander to have been killed by other means in the past 12 months was Abu Ghadiyah, who was in charge of the production line of suicide bombers from Syria into Iraq. He died during a controversial US commando helicopter raid across the border from Iraq in October.
Link


India-Pakistan
U.S.: Al Qaeda commander believed killed in Pakistan
2008-10-24
A senior al Qaeda operational commander is believed to have been killed recently in Pakistan's South Waziristan region, several U.S. officials told CNN Wednesday. The officials identified the man as Khalid Habib, who is considered to have been an operations coordinator for al Qaeda in the tribal region along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border where al Qaeda leaders, including Osama bin Laden, are believed to be hiding. One official described him as the "chief of external operations" for al Qaeda.

Officially, the U.S. intelligence assessment is that Habib was "probably" killed last Thursday, because there is no final DNA match, but there is every reason to believe he was killed, the officials said. Local groups in Pakistan also reported his death over the weekend.

The U.S. officials would not confirm Habib's apparent death was the result of a missile strike by a U.S. Predator unmanned drone.

But a Pakistani intelligence official and eyewitnesses reported October 16 that unmanned planes fired missiles over the village of Saam, in Wana -- the capital of South Waziristan -- killing at least four civilians and wounding seven others.

The United States, which has a presence in Afghanistan, is the only country operating in the region known to have the capability to launch missiles from drones, which are controlled remotely.
Did they check with the Ruritanians ...
At the time, U.S. Forces Afghanistan in Kabul had no comment on such strikes, as part of its standing policy.

One U.S. official described Habib Wednesday as "one of the top figures" in al Qaeda, who is believed to have had direct contact with bin Laden in the past. He's also believed to be a key deputy to Mustafa Abu Al Yazid, also known as "Sheikh Said," who is the commander of the al Qaeda in Afghanistan.

A source in Pakistan told CNN it is believed Habib replaced the previous operational chief, Abu-Laith al-Libi, who was killed several months ago.
Link


India-Pakistan
US Attacks Inside Pakistan and Incidents along the Border in 2008: Timeline
2008-10-17
Bill Roggio has links for each incident

• US targets safe house in North Waziristan
Oct. 11, 2008

• US strike kills 9 al Qaeda and Taliban in North Waziristan
Oct. 9, 2008

• US conducts two strikes in North Waziristan
Oct. 3, 2008

• Taliban: Baitullah Mehsud alive; US strike in North Waziristan
Oct. 1, 2008

• Pakistan military fires on ISAF forces
Sept. 25, 2008

• Pakistani military fires on US helicopters at border
Sept. 22, 2008

• US strikes Taliban camp in South Waziristan
Sept. 17, 2008

• Report: US helicopters fired on while crossing Pakistani border
Sept. 15, 2008

• US hits compound in North Waziristan,
Sept. 12, 2008

• US targets Haqqani Network in North Waziristan,
Sept. 8, 2008

• US airstrike killed five al Qaeda operatives in North Waziristan,
Sept. 5, 2008

• Report: US airstrike kills four in North Waziristan,
Sept. 4, 2008

• Pakistanis claim US helicopter-borne forces assaulted village in South Waziristan,
Sept. 3, 2008

• US hits al Qaeda safe house in North Waziristan,
Aug. 31, 2008

• Five killed in al Qaeda safe house strike in South Waziristan,
Aug. 31, 2008

• Al Qaeda safe house targeted in South Waziristan strike,
Aug. 20, 2008

• Cross-border strike targets one of the Taliban's 157 training camps in Pakistan's northwest,
Aug. 13, 2008

• Six killed in strike in South Waziristan,
July 28, 2008

• Report: Strike targets Baitullah Mehsud's hideout in Pakistan,
June 14, 2008

• Senior Algerian al Qaeda operative killed in May 14 strike inside Pakistan,
May 24, 2008

• Missile strike kills 20 in South Waziristan,
March 16, 2008

• Unprecedented Coalition strike nails the Haqqani Network in North Waziristan,
March 13, 2008

• Missile strike on al Qaeda meeting in South Waziristan kills 13,
Feb. 28, 2008

• Senior al Qaeda leader Abu Laith al Libi killed in North Waziristan,
Jan. 31, 2008
Link


-Obits-
9/11 passes with no new English propaganda, Adam Gadahn presumed dead
2008-09-12
Adam Gadahn, a Winchester native who became a top al-Qaida operative and the first American to be indicted for treason since 1952, may have been killed in an airstrike, according to intelligence experts cited by a British newspaper.

Gadahn is thought to have been killed in an attack launched from a remotely piloted aircraft in January, according to London's Daily Telegraph newspaper, which cited unnamed Western intelligence sources in Pakistan.
It's September, if no rumbles from him since then, then he's dead.
Internet rumors have circulated about Gadahn's death since February, pointing to a well-trusted Pakistani news report that Gadahn was killed in the same attack that killed high-profile al-Qaida commander Abu Laith al-Libi in Waziristanin January.
That's so awesome that he was in the little group. What a lovely little surprise to get in your strike assessment!
The Telegraph article, published Sunday, also cites that late-January attack as the probable demise of Gadahn, who grew up in a reclusive family on a goat farm in the hills of Winchester. At age 17, he converted to Islam and subsequently joined al-Qaida, becoming its top propagandist.

Another telltale sign that Gadahn could be dead is that he has not produced a new video message this week to mark the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, departing from an annual tradition he launched in 2003.
Yeah, that's pretty conclusive.
"If there is no message, it will be taken as near-certain confirmation that he is dead ---- killed either in a strike by Hellfire missiles, or perhaps by jihadi colleagues who have grown jealous of his success," the Telegraph reported.
Islamo-terr office politics.
In May, several months after initial reports circulated that Gadahn might be dead, the FBI and State Department launched a publicity campaign to spread the word in Afghanistan about a $1 million reward for information on Gadahn's whereabouts. "We produced posters and matchbooks, radio ads, requesting information from anyone who might have it," Eimiller said. "There's been some information that has come in, but clearly he's not been located at this point. We are continuing to take calls and check out every lead."
They're looking for him. Can't find him. Matchbooks? I'd like to get my hands on a few of those.
Link


Afghanistan
Kandahar jailbreak - Predators followed the rats to their holes
2008-08-27
When the Taliban broke more than 750 prisoners out of jail this summer, in one of the most spectacular attacks in living memory, Nato's response was instant but invisible. Senior commanders scrambled every drone they could spare as prisoners poured out of Kandahar jail.

The closest Nato garrison had hunkered down inside their base, afraid of more attacks, as prisoners poured into the night.

But commanders at nearby Kandahar Airfield watched live pictures of the anarchy, from the comfort of their operations room, as wave after wave of escapees began marching east, to sanctuaries in Pakistan. A fleet of Predator drones criss-crossed the skies some 35,000 feet above Afghanistan's second city, flying throughout the night and long into the next morning, as rag-tag columns of men made good their escape.

Some of the prisoners went straight to Arghandab, just outside the city, where they fought with Nato troops a few days later. But most of the 400 Taliban, who were among the 750 inmates freed, fled back to Pakistan - beyond the reach of Nato's force. Or so they thought.

International troops are using drones to patrol Pakistani airspace in a bid to monitor insurgents on both sides of the border. "We wanted to see where the prisoners went," said one official in Kabul, hinting that the fugitives had betrayed their hideouts when they fled.

It is an open secret that armed Predator drones, operated by the CIA, are flying routine fire missions inside Pakistan against Al Qa'ida leaders. The most notable example of a drone attack came last January, when a missile from a Predator hit a terrorist safe house in Waziristan, killing Abu Laith al-Libi, the man accused of plotting an attack against Bagram airbase, when US vice president Dick Cheney was visiting. That attack,in the Pakistani tribal region of Bajaur, targeted and missed al-Qaida's number two leader, Ayman al-Zawahri.

At the end of last month, a drone operating in northwestern Pakistan pinpointed al Qa'ida's chemical engineer, Abu Khabab al-Masri, who was a key figure in the group's production of chemical weapons and conventional explosives. Al Qa'ida has confirmed the death of the operative who was killed by a missile, along with five other people. He had earlier been reported as having been killed in the attack last January and had a $5m reward on his head.

Nato sources continually blame Pakistan for a surge in Afghan violence this year, and growing frustration at Pakistan's failure to tackle the Taliban on their side of the border has prompted talk of Nato operations against the insurgents on both sides of the Durrand line.

"The CIA already conducts operations in partnership with the Pakistanis," said a senior Nato official in Kabul. "Nato would like to have the same relationship with Pakistan."

The drones watch and log the movements of senior Taliban commanders in Pakistan's lawless tribal areas. Unlike the presence of special forces, they carry far less political risk. Most of them are flown from an airbase in America, and if they crash - which has happened - they don't create "friendly" body bags.

The Taliban claim they can hear the tell tale buzz of unmanned aerial vehicles, of UAVs, before an attack. But most of the time they circle too high to be heard or seen, beaming back images of whatever's going on below. They only swoop lower when they want to fire, or take a closer look.

The army call drones their "unblinking eye," and they rely on them for almost all their major operations. One senior airborne officer told The Independent there was no doubt the aircraft had saved British lives. "They are so good," he said, "they are the first thing we ask for when we plan an operation. "The big thing is that they help us at the lowest tactical level. They find information, that which allows us to make decisions."

Moments before soldiers storm compounds or search houses, drones relay messages to their commanders warning them how many fighters to expect, and what weapons they have.

On a search operation in Helmand, against a suspected bomb factory, drones directed troops to return to a compound they had already searched, after it spotted bodies hiding in a nearby treeline.

Smaller versions of the predator are flown from Kandahar and Camp Bastion. The British hired a model plane enthusiast to help them take off and land, while even smaller drones - the size of remote controlled toy planes - are flown by artillery troops from the forward operating bases scattered across the provinces.

But the information is not always fool proof. America is once again investigating claims its warplanes killed 89 civilians in an airstrike in Herat last week. The Afghan president, Hamid Karzai, has fired two senior Afghan officers for their role in the attack. There's little doubt the US Special Forces who called in the airstrike were relying, in part, on information from a drone that was watching the Taliban commander they were hoping to arrest.

It's just possible that the "thorough battle damage assessment" that American officials said proved that they had only killed insurgents was also done by a drone. President Hamid Karzai disagrees, and the Americans have, reluctantly, launched an investigation.

Perhaps more telling, is that three months after the great jail break, not one of the fugitive prisoners has been arrested.
Link


India-Pakistan
Three top US agencies involved in Waziristan operations: New Yorker
2008-06-30
Three of the top United States clandestine agencies, along with US Special Forces and Pakistani intelligence outfits, are targeting the Taliban leadership in Waziristan, according to a report published here.

The exclusive report in the New Yorker by Seymour Hersch
ah, yes - Say More Hersh
Does he actually name a source in this report ...
says that the programme is being executed by professionals from the National Security Agency, the CIA and the Defence Intelligence Agency, who are “right in there with the Special Forces and Pakistani intelligence, and they’re dealing with serious bad guys”.
The comedians we leave alone ....
A source told the American investigative reporter: “We have to be really careful in calling in the missiles. We have to hit certain houses at certain times. The people on the ground are watching through binoculars a few hundred yards away and calling specific locations, in latitude and longitude. We keep the Predator loitering until the targets go into a house, and we have to make sure our guys are far enough away so they don’t get hit.”
Wow - this must be an extra special operation. I mean, our spec ops guys almost never take care in calling in missiles or hitting high value targets or such.
Prominent victim: One of the most prominent victims of the programme, a former official said, was Abu Laith al-Libi, a senior Taliban commander who was killed on January 31, reportedly in a missile strike that also killed 11 other people. The Washington Post reported on March 26 on the increasing number of successful strikes against Taliban and other insurgent units in Pakistan’s Tribal Areas. A follow-up article noted that, in response, the Taliban had killed “dozens of people” suspected of providing information to the US and its allies on the whereabouts of Taliban leaders. Many of the victims were thought to be American spies, and their executions — a beheading, in one case — were videotaped and distributed by DVD as a warning to others.

Another ex-US intelligence official, commenting on the US attempting something similar in Iran, warned, “It’s one thing to engage in selective strikes and assassinations in Waziristan and another in Iran. The White House believes that one size fits all, but the legal issues surrounding extrajudicial killings in Waziristan are less of a problem because Al Qaeda and the Taliban cross the border into Afghanistan and back again, often with US and NATO forces in hot pursuit. The situation is not nearly as clear in the Iranian case. All the considerations — judicial, strategic, and political — are different in Iran.”
It's always different, except when it isn't.
Link


Home Front: WoT
Obama: let's nail bin Laden, but let's be nice about it
2008-06-19
Jim Geraghty, 'Campaign Spot' @ National Review

Obama has a secret plan to kill Osama bin Laden that somehow doesn't make him a martyr.

WASHINGTON (AP) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama said Wednesday he would bring Osama bin Laden to justice in a way that wouldn't allow the terrorist mastermind to become a martyr, but he may be killed if the U.S. government finds him.

'First of all, I think there is an executive order out on Osama bin Laden's head,' Obama said at a news conference. 'And if I'm president, and we have the opportunity to capture him, we may not be able to capture him alive.'

He said he wouldn't discuss what approach he would take to bring bin Laden to justice if he were apprehended. But he said the Nuremberg trials for the prosecution of Nazi leaders are an inspiration because the victors acted to advance universal principles and set a tone for the creation of an international order.
After which, we strung the bastards up--and we weren't gentle about it, either.
'What would be important would be for us to do it in a way that allows the entire world to understand the murderous acts that he's engaged in and not to make him into a martyr, and to assure that the United States government is abiding by basic conventions that would strengthen our hand in the broader battle against terrorism,' Obama said.


A couple reactions:

1) On our list of concerns regarding Osama bin Laden, how high is, 'if we kill him, he'll be seen as a martyr' on the list? Has the 'martyrdom' of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, Abu Laith al Libi, Mohammed Atef, and Abu Hamza Rabia really been that energizing for al-Qaeda? Don't we want to kill these guys? Isn't that the point of dropping bombs on them and sending Special Forces after them?
I suspect it's not a 'concern,' it's more of a pretext for not invoking the death penalty because, eeeww, the death penalty is, like, yucky.

One unintended (I hope it's unintended!) consequence of this kind of thinking is that while we're perfectly willing to kill off the low-level cannon fodder, the people who actually run the terror networks become 'off limits.' I think that's exactly backwards. I think it's much more effective to summarily kill off the bosses and at least hold open the possibility of mercy for the foot soldiers (if they surrender peacably, of course).

2) Does the world really not 'understand the murderous acts that he's engaged in'?
Well, certain dark corners of the world appear not to.
Would anyone who was unpersuaded by the video of him bragging about 9/11 -- and the numerous subsequent videotape and audiotapes of him taking credit for the attacks -- be persuaded by a trial?

3) Is the world truly worried about the U.S. might not 'abide by basic conventions' if it captures Osama bin Laden?
3a) If there's any country that would openly stand up for bin Laden's due process rights, are they anyone we should be taking seriously?
4) How many Americans would object to the waterboarding of Osama bin Laden?

5) If the moment he was brought to a U.S. base, a U.S. soldier -- or better yet, the President of the United States -- walked up to bin Laden and raised a gun and executed him right then and there, would the world complain about the lack of a trial?
The UN would, but who cares what they think?
How many Americans would complain?
I can think of a couple or three places (here and here and here) one could find some.
Link


India-Pakistan
Abu Suleiman al-Jazairi confirmed dead in missile air strike
2008-06-01
Analysis piece in the Guardian about the death of number 3 Abu Suleiman al-Jazair, and what it means to al-Qaeda, with the usual spin and hang-wringing.
An al-Qaeda trainer and explosives specialist involved in a range of European terrorist networks has been killed in Pakistan, the latest senior militant to die in a spate of controversial American missile strikes.

The death two weeks ago of Abu Suleiman al-Jazairi, a highly experienced Algerian militant, has been confirmed only in the last few days, intelligence sources in Pakistan and Western Europe told The Observer.
Al-Jazairi, thought to have been 45, died along with at least 15 others when the house in which he was staying in Pakistan's Bajaur tribal district was hit by a missile fired from a Predator.
Al-Jazairi, thought to have been 45, died along with at least 15 others when the house in which he was staying in Pakistan's Bajaur tribal district was hit by a missile fired from a Predator, an American pilotless drone.

Details are only now emerging about the strike on Damadola, a village near the Afghan-Pakistan border hit twice in the past. The house targeted and destroyed by the drone is believed to belong to a former Afghan Taliban defence minister, Maulvi Obaidullah, members of whose family, including women and children, are thought to have died. The surrounding area is in the hands of militants linked to the Pakistan Taliban militant group who have been blamed for the killing of Benazir Bhutto last year.

The death of al-Jazairi, thought to have been director of external operations for al-Qaeda and thus responsible for running the terrorist group's European and British networks, was cited by CIA chief Michael Hayden last week as one of the reasons for the 'strategic defeat' of al-Qaeda. Another top militant, Abu Laith al-Libi, was killed in February. 'The ability to kill and capture key members of al-Qaeda continues, and keeps them off balance - even in their best safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border,' Hayden said. Hayden added that al-Qaeda had been defeated in Saudi Arabia, was losing the battle for hearts and minds in the Islamic world and was now unable to exploit the Iraq war to draw in new recruits.

However, the CIA chief's upbeat assessment contrasts with collective thinking in the intelligence community in America and elsewhere. Senior counter-terrorist officials in Europe, the Middle East and South Asia in recent weeks revealed profound concern about the potential use of weapons of mass destruction by militants and the continued attraction of the al-Qaeda ideology for second or third generation immigrants and converts in the West. Britain, with its close links to Pakistan, is in a particularly vulnerable position. 'It is certain that mainstream hardcore al-Qaeda have suffered considerable setbacks - in Iraq certainly and elsewhere - but I think generally there is a lot more caution,' said Nigel Inkster, recently retired deputy head of MI6. 'It would only take a couple of attacks for the positive perception to radically change.'

Bruce Hoffman, terrorism expert at Georgetown University, said Hayden's comments needed to be seen in the context of American domestic politics. 'In an election year with a two term administration that is very sensitive to its historical record this is not unexpected,' he told The Observer. 'Al-Qaeda may not have had a successful attack in three years but it is too early to declare victory.' Hoffman said that the danger this year was in fact high. 'People do not join a terrorist group to sit on their hands and if [al-Qaeda] are going to retain their relevance it is now or never.'

Yet senior figures within American intelligence have also been struck by the failure of al-Qaeda to mobilise broad support in the Islamic world, and have begun to think more optimistically about the future. Security services have closely followed disputes and defections in recent months. Vicious feuding has led some analysts to conclude that the Islamic militant movement is turning in on itself with al-Qaeda leaders Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri increasingly isolated. Postings by al-Zawahiri in a question and answer session on the internet a month ago had a defensive tone, seeking to justify civilian casualties in militant attacks. The strategy is seen as a failure by many militants outside al-Qaeda and by some within the group.
Link


Africa North
Qaeda-linked rebels freed - charity
2008-04-08
LIBYA has released 90 al Qaeda-linked Islamic rebels from prison after talks between their movement and a charity run by the son of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, the charity said on Tuesday.

The rebels were members of the Fighting Islamic Group in Libya (FIGL) and represent one third of the group's members still held in Libyan jails, said the Gaddafi International Foundation chaired by Saif al-Islam. It gave no details of the terms of their release.

The foundation first announced the talks on Feb. 25, saying authorities were preparing to free one third of the group members still behind bars.

The FIGL announced its presence in 1995, vowing to overthrow Gaddafi and launching a violent campaign in the OPEC oil exporting country. In November 2007, al Qaeda's second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahri said the group had joined the militant organisation.

The 90 group members freed on Tuesday were held in Tripoli's main prison of Abu Salim, the scene of riots in October 2006 in which one prisoner died and 17 were injured in clashes with guards and police. FIGL members were among the rioters, who Libyan authorities described as "heretics", the official term they use to describe radical Islamists.

At the time, more than 100 FIGL members were serving long jail terms at the prison, including life. In January this year, Abu Laith al-Libi, a leading Fighting Group member and al Qaeda field commander, was killed in a suspected U.S. missile strike in Pakistan.
Link


Terror Networks
A look inside Al Qaeda
2008-04-02
The militant is known as Abu Ubaida al Masri, and charting his path reveals his vulnerabilities and those of the terrorist group....

Masri's ongoing contact with foreign operatives put him in the cross hairs. U.S. forces have unleashed a flurry of airstrikes in Waziristan this year, killing a top Libyan chief, Abu Laith al Libi, and other Arab militants in late January.

Recent intelligence suggests that Masri died too, officials say. But they say they have no confirmation, no Internet eulogies of the kind that celebrated Libi.

Cultivating the art of survival through anonymity, Masri may have beaten the odds once again. Or it may be that, for strategic reasons, both sides want to keep his fate ambiguous as a successor emerges.

The external operations chief, the senior British official said, has "the job with the lowest life expectancy in international politics."
Link


Terror Networks
Off Message
2008-03-21
Intelligence analysts are still mulling over the latest audio message from Osama bin Laden, looking for hidden meaning and messages in the terror leader's diatribe. We've never claimed to fully understand bin Laden, and his most recent speech struck us as a bit strange. On the five-year anniversary of the Iraq War, the Al Qaida chieftain ignored that subject altogether, concentrating instead on the recent republication of cartoons featuring the Prophet Mohammed, by newspapers in Denmark. The cartoons, which touched off a firestorm of controversy (and violence) when first published in 2006, were reprinted again last month. So far, the reaction from Muslims in Europe--and elsewhere--has been comparatively mild, at least by the standards of two years ago. Still, bin Laden threatened Europeans with a new "reckoning" for their misdeeds. As the AP reports:

Wednesday's audiotape from bin Laden was posted on a militant Web site that has carried al-Qaida statements in the past and bore the logo of the extremist group's media wing Al-Sahab."The response will be what you see and not what you hear and let our mothers bereave us if we do not make victorious our messenger of God," said a voice believed to be bin Laden's, without specifying what action would be taken.

He said the cartoons "came in the framework of a new Crusade in which the Pope of the Vatican has played a large, lengthy role," according to a transcript released by the SITE Institute, a U.S. group that monitors terror messages."You went overboard in your unbelief and freed yourselves of the etiquette's of dispute and fighting and went to the extent of publishing these insulting drawings," he said. "This is the greater and more serious tragedy, and reckoning for it will be more severe."


So, why did bin Laden ignore Iraq in favor of a "recycled" crisis? A few answers come to mind. First, things are hardly going Al Qaida's way in Iraq. Since the troop surge began, Al Qaida and its local allies have suffered a series of staggering defeats, losing territory, support and influence. With the terror group Iraqi affiliate now a shadow of its former self, bin Laden can hardly chortle about the "defeats" being inflicted on the "crusaders." And, as Rusty at the Jawa Report observes, there's the very real possibility that the latest bin Laden tape is simply a recycled product:

There is literally no doubt in my mind now. This is an old audio, probably from 2006, of bin Laden. As Sahab must have been embarrassed that they had nothing to offer the world on this the anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, so they hurriedly released an old audio they had lying around. The fact that there was no accompanying banner is evidence that they threw this together last minute.

If Jawa's analysis is correct, that raises another question, namely why was Al Qaida's normally- astute propaganda arm unable to offer any new audio or video on the anniversary of the Iraq War? For starters, it is possible (as Jawa proposes) that bin Laden is now dead--although there's no compelling evidence to confirm that assertion. A better explanation might be that the Al Qaida leader has moved deeper into the mountains of Waziristan, making it more difficult for his propaganda arm to create new products. Such a relocation would be in response to recent air strikes in the region that have killed several top Taliban officials.

Indeed, those attacks may have eliminated key figures in As Sabah, including Adam Gadahn, the American traitor who (in recent years) has played an increasingly important role in Al Qaida's propaganda machine. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Gadahn died in a 29 January airstrike on a terrorist safe house in Waziristan. But there is a problem with that theory, as the Long War Journal observed last month:

Al Qaeda would have capitalized on Gadahn's death, given his unique status as an American member of al Qaeda. "I would imagine that if Gadahn got knocked off they would have announced his death just as quickly as they did [Abu Laith al Libi's death]," said Nick Grace, who closely tracks al Qaeda's propaganda and activity at jihadi forums. "Having an American become a martyr would be a propaganda coup for them and I imagine that ultimately Gadahn will be more useful for al Qaeda dead than alive."

Grace noted that Gadahn plays a leading role in al Qaeda's propaganda apparatus. "He has a leading voice within As Sahab's management," Grace said. Gadahn has taken over a significant role in As Sahab since the summer of 2006, and the propaganda has become more "sophisticated" since Gadahn's direction.

But signs of Gadahn's absence have been seen with the latest release of the Yazid video, said Grace. Files were not properly uploaded in the correct sequence. "Since taking the reins of as-Sahab, Gadahn instituted standards and practices that have been closely followed over the past year," Grace noted. "This is the first technical mistake that I have seen them make since the events back in September 2007," when the Osama bin Laden videotape was improperly handled.


Al Qaida's odd reaction to the five-year anniversary of Operation Iraqi Freedom may led more credence to reports of Gadahn's death. Some of the terror group's propaganda efforts have grown clumsy in recent months, lacking their past focus on U.S. audiences and themes. That may indicate Al Qaida's highest-ranking American may no longer control the media show, because he became "one with the cosmos" a few weeks back.

And that would be welcome news, indeed.
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Afghanistan
Unprecedented Coalition strike nails the Haqqani Network in North Waziristan - Roggio
2008-03-14
Hat Tip to Long War Journal

A decisive Coalition strike against a high-level meeting of Taliban linked insurgents on March 12 took place one and a half kilometers inside Pakistani territory, US military officials have confirmed to the Long War Journal. Several precision-guided munitions struck a compound owned by a senior member of the Haqqani network, a powerful Taliban splinter group who is based out of the Pakistani tribal state of North Waziristan, shortly after multiple intelligence sources confirmed a high level meeting of the group’s upper echelon was taking place in the compound. According to information made available to the Long War Journal, the owner of the compound and other Haqqani network leaders were in the compound at the time of the strike. Several other high level Haqqani commanders, including Sirajjudin Haqqani, had planned to attend this meeting, intelligence sources confirmed.

At 9:40 PM local time, US officials declared the group posed an imminent threat to forces inside Afghanistan and the call to strike the compound was made. After the orders were given to launch a coordinated strike, fixed wing and rotary wing air support along with Predator surveillance and recon began scanning likely insurgent attack positions inside Afghanistan. US military officials confirmed no women or children had been seen in the targeted North Waziristan compound or in any structures near it over the last five days.

Nearly four hours later, a salvo of indirect fire targeting the compound hit their mark, completely obliterating the building and killing an unknown number of people inside of it. Several insurgents working sentry posts around the compound were observed by aerial surveillance leaving the area on foot. Initial intelligence reports on March 12. Indicated three “high-level Haqqani network commanders” were killed and that “many” Chechen fighters also died in the blast.

The targeted strike inside Pakistani territory is the first public announcement by US military officials confirming the coordination of a cross-border attack. The attack is said to have occurred in the village of Lwara Mundi, a flashpoint for clashes between insurgents and security forces, according the AFP. Thousands of pro-Taliban insurgents, al Qaeda fighters, and tribal militias associated with the Taliban operate unhindered in the tribal states of western Pakistan, especially in their stronghold of North Wazristan. Previously, the Pakistani government has denied Coalition and NATO forces from conducting raids against targets inside Pakistani territory.

The attack on March 12 was quickly condemned by the Pakistani military, who claim the strike killed two Pakistani women and two children. Chief Pakistani military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas told reporters, “We have lodged a very strong protest with the coalition forces across the border. The US military has refused to comment on these claims, but intelligence reports strongly indicate no females or children were present in or near the compound at the time of the strike. The Pakistani military has denied commenting if insurgents were among the dead found in the rubble of the compound.

One night prior to the strike, Long War Journal correspondent Phil Peterson witnessed US military officials call off a targeted strike following intelligence reports that women and children were inside a house occupied by a high level insurgent commander. “I watched them pass on taking out some bad guys because they were in a compound with other people and there might also be collateral damage to the surrounding structures, possibly causing civilian deaths or injuries,” Phil recounted in an email from Bagram Air Force Base. “The intel was solid; they knew who the guys were and where exactly they were in the compound but they passed to get them another time.”

In late January, senior al Qaeda commander Abu Laith al Libi was killed during a missile strike in North Waziristan along with several Arab lieutenants. Al Libi was a top-tier al Qaeda leader and led the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, which merged with al Qaeda in Nov. 2007. He attended a high level meeting among insurgents at a compound in Azam Warsak village in North Waziristan, a key al Qaeda controlled village since 2002. American al Qaeda representative, Adam Gadahn, may have also died in the same attack that killed al Libi, according to western sources who spoke to Pakistani news outlets.

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