Nirupama Subramanian
Two years after the initial removal Iftikhar Chaudhary as chief justice of Pakistan, the demand for his restoration is not only alive, but has come together with Supreme Court disqualification of Nawaz Sharif in a way that is threatening the future of President Asif Ali Zardari and his Pakistan People's Party-led government. It has even given rise to speculation about what Pakistanis, after year of living under military rule, politely describe as a "khaki intervention."
The disqualification of Mr. Sharif and his brother Shahbaz, both leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League (N), President Zardari's subsequent ill-advised decision to dismiss the PML(N) government in Punjab, and the lawyers' demand for the restoration of the deposed Mr. Chaudhary have placed Mr. Zardari, the PPP, and its government in a tight political corner.
It was on March 9, 2007 that former President Pervez Musharraf first removed Mr. Chaudhary, setting off a chain of events that eventually saw off the military ruler in August 2008. Mr. Zardari has steadfastly refused to restore the former chief justice to the Supreme Court, which is at present headed by a Musharraf-appointee.
Contrary to the PPP's hopes, the issue of restoration refused to fade out of the national discourse. Instead, it became the main source of tension between Mr. Zardari and the Sharifs in the last eight months.
Since the Sharifs' disqualification by what they described as a "bogus court" with "bogus judges," the PML(N), which has launched an all-out war on President Zardari, has decided to throw its weight behind a "long march" on the capital by lawyers to demand the restoration of Mr. Chaudhary. The procession will set out from Lahore on March 15, and aims to reach Islamabad the next day.
"We want a judiciary that is not pliable, that does not fear the government and the military, which fears only god," said Shahbaz Sharif.
Other parties that will take part in the march are the Jamat-i-Islami and the Imran Khan-led Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf. Political activists, lawyers and civil society activists have thrown themselves into mobilisation efforts to make it "the longest march". Their plan, upon reaching Islamabad, is to stage a sit-in until their demand is met.
But despite assurances from the lawyers that their protest will be peaceful march, fears are it could turn ugly, especially if attempts are made to storm the barricades around the presidency, parliament and the Supreme Court. Should such a situation arise, and if there is a perception that the government can no longer control it, several commentators are saying a "khaki intervention" would become inevitable.
The speculation ranges from a full-scale martial law to some kind of "soft" intervention, with Zardari loyalists accusing Mr. Sharif of trying to deliberately push the situation to the brink on the gamble that this will bring in "the boots" and open the way for his own return to power, possibly through a mid-term election.
Interior Ministry boss Rehman Malik hinted at this when he accused the Sharifs of not having the patience to wait it out in the opposition.
"Some people want to come to power by any means, even if it is through the Bangladesh-model," he said at a press conference on Monday, bringing out into the open the talk behind closed doors.
He was referring to the 2007 military-intervention in Bangladesh following widespread violence in the country. It led to the installation of a caretaker government that conducted the 2008 elections. Many analysts in Pakistan believe that this is the model that their army will follow in case it intervenes.
There is little doubt that Mr. Zardari and the PPP own a large share of the responsibility for the present political turmoil. The move of dismissing the PML(N) government in Punjab in undue haste after Shahbaz Sharif had to step down as chief minister following his disqualification was an especially transparent ploy to grab power in the country's largest and politically most important province. But it was misjudged. Having gone for broke, the PPP realised it could not put together enough numbers to form an alternate provincial government.
Mr. Zardari then tried to reverse his way out of a difficult political situation. Working through the Awami National Party leader Asfnadyar wali Khan and Jamiat-e-Ulema Islami leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the PPP leader sent reconciliatory messages to the Sharifs. He reportedly offered a promise that the Governor's rule in Punjab province would be lifted, and the federal government would file a review petition in the Supreme Court against the Sharifs' disqualification.
In these efforts, some already detected the firm guiding hand of the Pakistan Army, which is said to be keen that political stability is restored in the country. In a signed article titled "The Power of Winks and Messages," the editor of The News, Shaheen Sehbai, wrote that a "subtle intervention by the khakis" spurred the PPP's attempts to reach out to the PML(N).
But Nawaz Sharif, pronouncing Mr. Zardari "untrustworthy" for failing to keep previous promises, has reportedly refused to budge from two pre-conditions as the bottom line for any agreement: remove Governor's rule in Punjab; restore the deposed chief justice.
The reconciliation efforts appeared to have failed, as evident from statements by a senior PPP cabinet that there would be no more negotiations as the Sharifs had refused to come off the path of "confrontation." Yet again, Pakistan is bracing for the unknown in the coming days.
"The army is incapable of providing political solutions. But if [the army steps in], this time too the politicians would be to blame," the Daily Times said in an editorial on Tuesday.
It is tempting to think that Pakistan may have been a different place today had it not been for Mr. Zardari's determination to keep Mr. Chaudhary out of the Supreme Court. It is widely held that his resistance to the deposed chief justice's return was born out of fear that corruption cases against him would be reopened.
Had Mr. Zardari restored him, if nothing else, he would have certainly been a more popular President than he is now, and that by itself would have given him enough capital to deal with both political and non-political foes. Now there is little sympathy for him.
Even within his own party, the discontent is evident. Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani told Parliament he did not agree with Governor's rule in Punjab, the latest in moves by him to assert his independence over President Zardari. The sidelining of the veteran PPP leader Raza Rabbani has caused more bad blood in the party.
A week, as they say, is a long time in politics. The fast-deteriorating situation may yet be salvaged before it spins completely out of control. Frantic diplomatic efforts are also on to save the day. Envoys of the U.S., the U .K., and even Australia are actively keeping up the pressure on both sides to row back before March 15. Expect some change in Pakistan in the next few days, for the better or for the worse. |
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