Recent Appearances...

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Recent Appearances...

Iraq

Iraqi militias reportedly agree to end drone attacks on Israel

2024-12-24

[IsraelTimes] Source tells Hezbollah-aligned al-Akhbar outlet that agreement was made with Baghdad government to end assaults due to volatile situation in region, uncertainty over Trump policies

Shiite militia groups in Iraq have decided to stop attacking Israel, a Lebanese report claimed Monday, in what would mark the latest retreat by a regional Iranian proxy that had attempted to pile pressure on Jerusalem.

Iraq-based militias have launched dozens of attack drones at Israel since war broke out in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
following Hamas
..a regional Iranian catspaw,...
’s October 7, 2023, assault, alongside other members of Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance®, including Hezbollah in Leb
...The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else?...
, the Iran's Houthi sock puppets
...a Zaidi Shia insurgent group operating in Yemen. They have also been referred to as the Believing Youth. Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi is said to be the spiritual leader of the group and most of the military leaders are his relatives. The legitimate Yemeni government has accused the them of having ties to the Iranian government. Honest they did. The group has managed to gain control over all of Saada Governorate and parts of Amran, Al Jawf and Hajjah Governorates. Its slogan is God is Great, Death to America™, Death to Israel, a curse on the Jews They like shooting off... ummm... missiles that they would have us believe they make at home in their basements. On the plus side, they did murder Ali Abdullah Saleh, which was the only way the country was ever going to be rid of him...
s in Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of...
, and pro-Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate ~~Jews~~ ~~Zionists~~ Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
groups in Syria.

While most of the attacks from Iraq have been largely ineffective, in October, two soldiers were killed and 24 others maimed when an Iraqi drone hit their Golan Heights base.

According to Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar, seen as linked to the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group, the militia groups operating under the Popular Mobilization Forces agreed to stop the attacks at the urging of Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudan
...a Moslem country located in the Horn of Africa. It is noted for its affinity for rule by ex- or current generals, its holy men, and for the oppression of the native Afro population by its Arab conquerors. South Sudan, populated mostly by the natives, split off from Sudan proper, which left North and South Darfur to be oppressed by the guys with turbans...
i.

The report cited an unnamed leader of Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, an Iraqi militia loyal to Iran, which wields wide influence over Shiite groups in the country.

He said the factions were waiting for US President-elect Donald Trump
...Never got invited to a P.Diddy party...
to take office next month to see how he approaches the region and particularly Iran.

An official from the allied Kata’ib Sayyed
Sayyed

...Arabic term meaning your/his lordship. Groveling in His Exalted Presence is encouraged...
al-Shuhada group told al-Akbar that the Iraqi faction had ended its attacks in coordination with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which agreed late last month to halt its rocket and drone launches after months of punishing counterattacks from Israel.

The official also noted that the militia had "partners in Iraq who have an opinion and reservations about those operations, and they must be listened to."

What matters, the official said, is that "there is communication between the parties of the Axis of Resistance® for the purpose of coordinating positions and coming up with a unified vision."

According to the Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba leader, the groups also agreed to avoid getting involved in Syria, where Salafist tough guys earlier this month ousted the regime of Iran-backed dictator Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
Terror of Aleppo ...
. He cited concerns that Iraq could experience worse instability than Syria, leading to a resurgence of terrorism.

Tehran, he said, had given the factions freedom of choice on how to act regarding Syria.

The source described reported pressure on the Iraqi government to shut down the PMF and other factions and confiscate their arms as a US-Israeli plot to bring about "the surrender of the Axis of Resistance®."

According to al-Akhbar, Sudani recently denied that there was any such plan.

There was no outside confirmation of the report.

On October 7, 2023, the Iran-backed Paleostinian terror group Hamas led a devastating attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people and opened the still-ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.

The following day, Iran’s Lebanese proxy Hezbollah began firing across the border at northern Israel, causing the evacuation of 60,000 residents from the area. The fighting spiraled into open war in September that ended last month with a fragile ceasefire after Israel decimated the Hezbollah leadership and its weapons stockpiles.

Days later, Syrian rebels swept across the country, taking the capital Damascus while Assad fled.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels have also been firing rockets and drones at Israel from Yemen, including several attacks last week, one of which saw 16 people injured when a missile hit Tel Aviv Saturday.

Israel has bombed Houthi sites in Yemen three times over the past year, but the group has vowed to continue its attacks.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Syria after the collapse. What next?

2024-12-12

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

Text taken from the website of Elijah J. Magnier. The rest of the text is in Russian and behind a paywall.
[ColonelCassad] Rapid military developments in Syria, without resistance from the Syrian army, led to the fall of President Bashar al-Assad and his unopposed departure from Damascus. This transition was the result of high-level negotiations between key players, including Turkey, Russia and Iran. However, the surprises in the Middle East are far from over; they are only just beginning with this transition of power and the attempt to create a new state with very different standards.

One of the key reasons for the rapid fall of the Assad regime was the strategy employed by the advancing forces in the towns and villages they captured, especially in the countryside of Idlib, Aleppo and its surroundings (apart from isolated extremist actions), but also in Hama, Homs, Damascus and southern Syria.

The attackers deliberately distanced themselves from the brutal tactics that had united the world against the forces fighting the Syrian army since 2011.

This shift in approach allowed the regime to collapse like a snowball rolling down a mountain, with minimal resistance as one city after another surrendered. The orderly surrender occurred without significant bloodshed after protracted negotiations led by the main mediators: Turkey, Iran, and Russia.

Russia and Iran lost a staunch ally and a strong base in the Middle East, leaving Turkey as the dominant power. Istanbul provided military support to the advancing forces, coordinated their operations, and carefully directed their actions through a joint operations room. Under Turkish leadership, these forces achieved all of their objectives in areas previously controlled by the Syrian army. However, they did not extend their success to areas controlled by U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in the northeast, where power extended to Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa.

Syria remains deeply divided, with the northeast under Kurdish control, Israel expanding its occupation of new Syrian territory in the south, and no unified factions that could form a cohesive ruling authority. Instead, Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jallali has been appointed to lead an interim administration running the country. What events have brought Syria to this point, and what does the future hold?

As head of the interim administration, Prime Minister al-Jallali will likely be responsible for the day-to-day functions of the state while preparing it for a longer-term transition. This includes maintaining basic governance, preventing a complete collapse of institutions, and overseeing negotiations to achieve a more permanent political settlement. Al-Jallali will have to navigate deep divisions as he works with opposition groups, external actors, and the remnants of the Assad-era bureaucracy. His ability to manage these relationships will determine whether Syria can move toward stability. His appointment signals to the international community that Syria is attempting to rebuild itself within a framework that combines continuity and change. However, it also raises questions about whether genuine reform is possible with a figure associated with the previous regime. Al-Jallali’s leadership during the transition will set the tone for Syria’s transition. Whether he can maintain stability and steer the country toward a new political structure will depend on his ability to build consensus among internal and external actors.

His tenure will likely determine whether Syria moves toward unity or remains divided and uncertain.

Many factions in Syria have united under the leadership of the Repel Aggression Coalition, forming a single alliance that includes groups such as Jaysh al-Izza, Jaysh al-Ahrar, Faylaq al-Sham, Al-Quwat al-Mushtaraka, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki, the Sultan Murad Brigade, Ansar al-Tawhid, Suqour al-Sham, Ahrar al-Sham, the Sulayman Shah Brigade, the Al-Hamza Division, and the Turkistan Islamic Party Brigades. Among them, Ahrar al-Sham and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham stand out as the largest and most influential.

A call has been announced for a “National Transitional Council” (NTC) to unite all elements of the revolution. This comes after Abu Muhammad al-Julani said that existing institutions would remain under the current prime minister in order to maintain stability following the unexpectedly rapid collapse of the Syrian government’s control over major cities.

However, the path forward remains uncertain. It is not yet clear how the state will be governed in the coming weeks or who will lead the effort to draft a new constitution and prepare for parliamentary elections. The main challenge will be creating a coherent governance structure and reconciling the diverse and often conflicting ideologies of the combined factions.

As these factions, with their different backgrounds and agendas, try to forge a unified vision for Syria’s future, questions remain about who will wield ultimate authority and how they will navigate the complexities of building a functioning state.

The success of this fragile alliance will likely determine whether Syria can move toward stability or remain divided and uncertain.

The creation of the National Transitional Council highlights the enormous challenges of uniting disparate factions into a coherent governing structure. While the Repel Aggression coalition suggests a temporary convergence of interests, the long-term sustainability of such an alliance remains questionable.

Factions within the NTC span a wide range of ideologies. Groups such as Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Ansar al-Tawhid advocate sharia-based governance of Syria. Their extremist vision risks alienating moderate factions and potential international supporters. Large groups such as HTS and Ahrar al-Sham may claim disproportionate influence, risking the marginalization of smaller factions and internal disunity. At the same time, Ahrar al-Sham and Faylaq al-Sham combine Islamic principles with nationalist aspirations, seeking a pluralistic model of governance that includes diverse Syrian groups.

On the other hand, factions such as the Sultan Murad Brigade and the Turkistan Islamic Party Brigades include foreign fighters and minorities, and they pursue unique goals, complicating the prospect of national unity. Smaller factions often support democratic or technocratic governance, which can conflict with the dominant Islamist forces in the coalition. These differences highlight the difficulty of creating a common vision of governance and policy.

Israel has formally abandoned the 1974 disengagement agreement with Syria, declaring its intention to renegotiate the dynamics on the border. In a bold move, Israel captured Mount Hermon and several villages in Quneitra, declaring Syria an open battlefield and signaling its intention to advance further into Syrian territory with blatant disregard for international norms. The Israeli Air Force conducted a sustained campaign, systematically attacking and destroying more than 100 strategic targets, including Syrian air defense systems, ammunition depots in Damascus, and key installations at several airports across the country, further weakening Syria’s already depleted defenses.

On the other hand, Russian forces, deployed on the Syrian-Israeli border primarily for stabilization following the Syrian civil war, acted as a buffer between Israeli and Syrian forces, preventing escalation. They were stationed primarily in the Quneitra and Golan Heights areas and served as intermediaries, restraining both sides from aggressive actions that could lead to a wider conflict. However, their presence was also a symbol of Russia’s influence in the region and its role as a security guarantor for the Assad regime.

Recent events have forced Moscow to abandon these positions due to the security risks to its soldiers, creating a vacuum that has allowed Israel to expand its operations and consolidate its control in southern Syria.

No international power has stepped up to defend Syrian sovereignty or oppose Israel’s annexation of additional Syrian territory. For Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the occupation of parts of Syria represents a major achievement in Israel’s strategic ambitions. Not only does the move strengthen his political position at home, it also reinforces Israel’s territorial and military dominance at a key moment in the evolution of the Middle East’s geopolitical situation.

Moscow, which has provided refuge to Bashar al-Assad and his family, has announced that it remains in touch with all parties involved in Syria, maintaining a pragmatic approach toward the new authorities. However, uncertainty hangs over Russia’s strategic presence in the region. The possible loss of the Khmeimim and Tartus military bases would be a significant loss, as these facilities provide the only access to the warm waters of the Mediterranean, a critical geopolitical asset for projecting influence in the region.

Since the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2012, Turkey under Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has taken a firm stance against President Bashar al-Assad. Erdogan has repeatedly stated that his goal is to visit Damascus and pray at the Umayyad Mosque. Today, with the fall of Assad, this goal seems achievable, cementing Turkey’s status as the “godfather” of the new Syrian leadership.

Turkey has long-term goals in Syria: securing its borders, countering Kurdish autonomy, and strengthening its influence in northern Syria. To this end, Ankara has used military action, economic integration, and support for opposition groups and jihadists. However, achieving these goals depends on Turkey’s ability to balance domestic political objectives, regional rivalries, and international interests.

Turkey has established zones of influence in regions such as Afrin, Jarablus, and al-Bab, where it exerts significant administrative, economic, and military influence. Turkish currency and goods dominate local markets, and the establishment of schools and cultural institutions has helped spread the Turkish language and culture.

These actions also help Turkey address its domestic challenges. It hosts more than 3.5 million Syrian refugees, and anti-refugee sentiment has become a significant political issue. By creating “safe zones” in northern Syria, Ankara aims to repatriate significant numbers of refugees, reducing domestic tensions and demonstrating its role as a stabilizing force in the region. However, such ambitions have drawn opposition from Russia and Iran, especially in light of Turkey’s resettlement of opposition-supporting Syrians in areas cleared of Kurdish forces. This process of demographic engineering is aimed at weakening Kurdish influence and strengthening Turkey’s position.

Turkey’s military campaigns and support for offensive forces are also aimed at undermining U.S.-backed Kurdish militias in northeastern Syria. Although the United States relies on Kurdish militias such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to fight ISIS, Ankara views the alliance as a threat to its security. Turkey’s operations demonstrate to Washington that it will not tolerate a prolonged Kurdish presence on its borders, even if it means disrupting American plans to stabilize the region.

Despite the fall of the Assad regime, the fighting in Syria is far from over. Fighting continues in northeastern Aleppo between Turkish-backed forces and U.S.-backed Kurdish militias. Turkey views these Kurdish forces not as Syrian militias but as affiliates of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which is designated a terrorist organization in Turkey and internationally. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently underscored this position, saying that these forces are “foreign fighters who have gathered in Syria and they must all be eliminated.” The Kurdish forces remain determined to defend their autonomy and continue to receive U.S. support, creating a protracted conflict that limits Ankara’s ability to achieve its goals.

The United States, however, takes a different stance. While Washington also considers Ahmed al-Shaar (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), the leader of the task force, a terrorist, it continues to support Kurdish groups, including militias linked to the PKK, which it also officially recognizes as terrorist organizations. Yet these same Kurdish forces play a key role in protecting the American presence in Syria. U.S. forces also provide them with air cover and prevent attacks on them, creating a paradoxical dynamic. The U.S. will only recognize new leaders in Syria if there is a smooth transition.

In recent days, Kurdish forces have advanced and taken control of Deir ez-Zor and Raqqa, adding these territories to the already-held regions of Hasakah and Qamishli, which are critical to Syria’s economy and resources. The new Syrian leadership is unlikely to accept this development, as it exacerbates tensions in the northeastern region, which contains the country’s grain basket as well as oil and gas resources. This Kurdish control presents an ongoing dilemma and raises the question of federalization, especially given the different identities of the Kurds, Alawites, and Druze in Syria.

However, Turkey’s staunch opposition to Kurdish autonomy will make the creation of a Kurdish state similar to Iraqi Kurdistan much more difficult. Ankara is unlikely to tolerate even the hint of a Kurdish enclave in northeastern Syria, ensuring that the issue remains a contentious and unresolved point in the country’s fragmented landscape.

Read the rest at the link

Syria. The last 75 years
Text taken from the Telegram channel of alter_vij

Commentary by Russian military journalist is in italics.
[ColonelCassad] In Syria over the past 75 years, not counting external wars:

1949 – three military coups, the supreme power changes as many as three times in one year

1951 – military coup

1954 – general rebellion and coup

1961 – military coup

1962 – as many as two military coups in one year

1963 – military coup, the Baath Party comes to power (one of the leaders is Assad Sr.)

1966 – military coup, where Assad Sr. is one of the main participants

1968-69 – riots in the main cities of the country, suppressed by the army

1970 – military coup, Assad Sr. comes to power

1976-82 – civil war between the Assad government and the Islamists. Mass killings in Aleppo. The city of Hama, mentioned more than once in December 2024, was completely destroyed during the fighting in 1982...

1984 - President Assad's younger brother unsuccessfully tries to overthrow his brother and seize power.

Since 1985, 20 years of relative stability begin under the harsh dictatorship of the Assad clan

2000 - Assad Sr. dies, power passes to his son

2005 - Vice President Khaddam, a close associate of his late father, unsuccessfully attempts to overthrow Assad Jr.

Since 2011 - as we all know, an ongoing war.

So 2024 and even 2025 will not be the last years of the eternal Syrian turmoil...

P.S. And what beauty was happening there throughout the 19th century! Emperor Nicholas I first thought about introducing Russian troops into Syria in 1840, when the "Egyptians" and "Turks" were once again fighting for Damascus and Aleppo during the civil strife within the Ottoman Empire.

Russian military intelligence began systematic work on the lands of modern Syria while Pushkin was still alive...

For five years, from 1834 to 1839, Russian officers worked continuously in Palestine and Syria. The first to survey the region for the possibility of military operations was Colonel of the General Staff Alexander Duhamel, who was listed as consul in Egypt. Then Lieutenant Colonel Pyotr Lvov worked in Syria. This native of the Tver province, a veteran of wars with the Turks and Polish rebels, compiled the first military map and topographic description of Syria in the style: "... here a road cut into the rock winds, and Beilan in a military sense would deserve special note."

Beilan is now the Turkish Belan in Hatay, where there are still more Arabs than Turks, and the line of the Syrian-Turkish border was recognized by Damascus only in 2011 and almost immediately "unrecognized" after Erdogan supported the internal Syrian rebellion.

But let's go back to the 19th century.

Emperor Nicholas I personally familiarized himself with the map of Syria and other documents of Lieutenant Colonel Lvov, leaving his own notes on them. As a result of this acquaintance, the lieutenant colonel became a colonel and received a lifelong pension of 2,000 rubles per year.

Following Pyotr Lvov in Syria and Palestine in 1838-39, Captain of the Life Guards Pavlovsky Regiment Joseph Dainese, assistant to the quartermaster general of the Active Army, worked. This Italian, who transferred to Russian service, compiled a "military survey map" and a detailed "Memoire sur la Syrie en 1838" (written in French, "Report on Syria in 1838").

Based on the work of Duhamel, Lvov and Dainese in St. Petersburg, the Department of the General Staff of the Ministry of War compiled the following summary in 1840: "The conquest of Syria, given the disposition of the inhabitants to the advancing army, is possible by acting from Anatolia during one 7- or 8-month campaign, but given the hostility of the steppe and mountain tribes, offensive actions, even from Anatolia, will be extremely difficult, will require a strong army and can be successful only with the slowest course of the war, special caution and inevitable sacrifices."

https://t.me/alter_vij/3365 - zinc

PS. Find Bashar al-Assad in the picture, who has recently become a Muscovite. Perhaps he will vote for Sobyanin in the elections.
The Sobyanin reference refers to Sergey Sobyanin, current mayor of Moskva who is apparently running for reelection.

Link

Southeast Asia

Too good to be true? Unpacking Jemaah Islamiyah’s self-declared disbanding

2024-09-08

2024.07.10
[BenarNews] At an event organized last month by the Indonesian counter-terrorism agency (BNPT), Abu Rusydan and 15 other leaders of Jemaah Islamiyah announced their group’s dissolution.

JI, the Southeast Asian affiliate of al-Qaeda, had carried out a string of devastating attacks in the 2000s, including Indonesia’s deadliest-ever terror attack — the 2002 Bali bombings. But now it was "ready to actively contribute to Indonesia’s progress and dignity," Abu Rusydan declared as he read from a prepared statement during the event on June 30.

This is not the first time that a bully boy group has disbanded itself. The Provisional Irish Republican Army unilaterally broke up in 2005, throwing itself solely into legal activities through its political arm, Sinn Féin. In 2018, the Basque separatist organization ETA also unilaterally disbanded.

But Jemaah Islamiyah’s announcement surprised many people, and left others feeling skeptical.

There are three interrelated questions that need to be asked about the move by JI: How did we get here? Is this for real? And what does this mean for regional security?

HOW DID WE GET HERE?
Jemaah Islamiyah, which has its roots in the Darul Islam movement, was founded in Malaysia in 1993, when its two founders, Abdullah Sungkar and

Abu Bakar Bashir
... Leader of the Indonesian Mujahedeen Council and proprietor of the al-Mukmin madrassah in Ngruki. The spriritual head of Jemaah Islamiya, which he denies exists. Bashir was jugged and then released in the wake of the 2002 Bali bombings, which he blamed on a conspiracy among the U.S., Israel, and Australia. In 2014, as leader of Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), he pledged allegiance to ISIS. Currently in jug...
, were on the run from Suharto’s New Order government in Indonesia.

While in Malaysia, they served as a way-station for several hundred gunnies who traveled to Pakistain to join the anti-Soviet jihad in Afghanistan, putting them in direct contact with al-Qaeda.

In 1996, a charter (the PUPJI) created the group’s organizational structure and codified JI’s Salafi ideology. At the time, the group also reached an agreement with the Philippine armed separatist organization, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, to allow al-Qaeda to establish training camps in the southern Philippines.

In Indonesia, JI perpetrated terrorist attacks on Christian churches and established two paramilitary organizations to wage sectarian conflict in the Maluku Islands and Central Sulawesi province.

Following the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001, the al-Qaeda leadership called for diversionary attacks. One of these was the twin Bali bombings that killed 202 people a year later.

Between 2002 and 2007, JI perpetrated a major attack almost every year. But each attack left the organization weaker as counterterrorism forces became more adept and better resourced.

This led to an ideological split in the organization between proponents of the line of targeting the "far enemy," versus those who wanted to foment sectarian conflict in order to rebuild their depleted ranks.

The government legally banned JI in 2008, but allowed it to operate as an entity as long as it refrained from violence.

In 2010, more than 100 JI members were swept up, including Abu Bakar Bashir, breaking the organization’s back. JI’s last terrorist act took place that year.

Yet, from 2020-2023, Indonesian counter-terrorism efforts were as focused on JI as it was on the pro-Islamic State

...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not really Moslems....
umbrella group, Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD). Security forces originally saw JI as an off-ramp for the more radical JAD, but attitudes hardened.

In 2019, when counterterrorism police arrested JI’s emir, Para Wijayanto, they were shocked by the group’s size and national reach. Its madrassas and charitable arms had grown, while its corporations and publishing arms had created a steady revenue stream. As many JI members were arrested in 2021 and 2022 as JAD suspects.

Indonesian counter-terrorism forces have applied a softer approach. Though seemingly campy, they’ve held mass rallies where former gunnies pledge allegiance to the republic.

Former gunnies have established madrassas for the children of incarcerated bully boys, so they are not raised in JI or JAD-run schools, breaking terrorist social networks.

They’ve gotten leaders, including the JAD Emir Aman Abdurrahman, who is on death row, and Umar Patek, to publicly renounce violence.

Meanwhile the conflict in Poso, which served as a rallying point for all bully boy groups in Indonesia, has been stamped out.

Internationally, there has been more cooperation amongst the regional security services. And while ungoverned space and institutional weakness remains in the southern Philippines, bully boy groups are no longer attracting JI and other foreign bully boys.

The Moro Islamic Liberation Front continues to implement the grinding of the peace processor and build up institutions that will help the autonomous Moslem region transition to self-governance. There has been an unprecedented sustained attack on the Abu Sayyaf
...also known as al-Harakat al-Islamiyya, an Islamist terror group based in Jolo, Basilan and Zamboanga. Since its inception in the early 1990s, the group has carried out bombings, kidnappings, murders, head choppings, and extortion in their uniquely Islamic attempt to set up an independent Moslem province in the Philippines. Abu Sayyaf forces probably number less than 300 cadres. The group is closely allied with remnants of Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiya and has loose ties with MILF and MNLF who sometimes provide cannon fodder...
, which is now fighting for survival.

IS THIS FOR REAL?
While JI has not been in a position to engage in terrorism, until now, it has never renounced violence. Many in the organization were simply waiting for the right circumstance to resume operations.

It’s easy to be cynical about the group’s prepared statement, especially at an event stage-managed by the BNPT. Some of those who were on hand had been arrested and gone through government disengagement programs.

To young radicals, they’re sell-outs, and past their prime. The average age of the men who renounced violence was in the late 50s or older.

To what degree will younger members follow the leadership and pursue a legal-political alternative?

In many ways, this is more promising. JI’s campaign of militancy failed to bring about the establishment of an Islamic State governed by Sharia. Democratic politics have advanced their political agenda more effectively.

It’s not that Islamist parties do terribly well at the national level. Indeed, in Indonesia’s 2024 general election, they collectively represented about 20% of the electorate and won 101 of 580 seats. But they are important members of political coalitions, which tend to give them a disproportionate voice.

It’s at the local level where we see faith-based parties make their mark, especially in the passage of public policy and Sharia compliant codes, which the majority of provinces and districts now have.

Islamist parties are riddled with rivalries and have never formed a cohesive bloc.

Perhaps for that reason, JI saw an opening for a tactical shift. In May 2021, JI established the Indonesian People’s Dakwah Party (PDRI). Yet, counter-terrorism forces arrested its founder, Farid Ahmad Okbah, that November for being a senior member of JI. Two others were arrested.

The PDRI did not contest the 2024 elections. But it seems likely that with JI’s dissolution, the government will give former members more political space.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR REGIONAL SECURITY?
JI’s manpower and locus were largely-Indonesian based, but it remains a Southeast Asian organization.

Some affiliates gravitated elsewhere. Darul Islam Sabah, for example, went from facilitating JI and the movement of foreign gunnies in and out of the southern Philippines to working with the JAD and other groups.

There has always been more fluidity between Southeast Asian bully boy groups than those in the Middle East or South Asia. Abu Bakar Bashir defected from being pro-al Qaeda to being pro-Islamic State, with large numbers of acolytes, without consequence.

As such, many younger gunnies who are committed to using violence to achieve their political aims are likely to defect to other groups.

What those groups may be, though, is unclear. The JAD is decimated and leaderless, though to be fair, it was always far more horizontally structured. It has not executed a major terrorist attack since 2019.

At present there is no apparent charismatic leader for bully boy Salafists
...Salafists are ostentatiously devout Moslems who figure the ostentation of their piety gives them the right to tell others how to do it and to kill those who don't listen to them...
to coalesce around. And while one would expect external events, such as the war in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with an iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
, to serve as a catalyst, to date it has not.

JI still runs a network of madrassas, including some very large ones like al-Mukmin and Pesantren Hidayatullah in Balikpapan. These continue to be ideological incubators and hate factories.

It’s hard to see state educational personnel intervene and change their curriculum. But Indonesian security forces have not let up, despite the decline in organizational strength or the tempo of operations.

Terrorism will be a persistent but manageable threat in Indonesia. JI’s dissolution makes it more so, providing a legal-political alternative that is more moral, but also proven to be more effective.

Zachary Abuza is a professor at the National War College in Washington and an adjunct at Georgetown University. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of the U.S. Department of Defense, the National War College, Georgetown University or BenarNews.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Israeli airstrikes target Damascus: State media

2024-05-10

[Rudaw] A series of Israeli ~~Arclight~~ airstrike
...KABOOM!...
s on Thursday targeted a "building" in the Syrian capital Damascus, state media reported. A war monitor said the strikes targeted a pro-Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Sturmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Fuhrer or maybe both. They hate ~~Jews~~ ~~Zionists~~ Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
Iraqi militia base in the city.

"At around 3:20 am today, the Israeli enemy launched airstrikes from the direction of the occupied Syrian Golan, targeting a building in the Damascus countryside," Syria’s state-owned SANA news agency said citing a military source, adding that air defenses intercepted the missiles.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), a Britannia-based war monitor, reported that the strikes targeted "a base and cultural center" of the Iran-backed Iraqi militia Harakat al-Nujaba, which comprises the 12th brigade of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF, or Hashd al-Shaabi).

The strikes inflicted material damage, and were carried out in the Sayyida Zeinab area in southern Damascus — a stronghold for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its affiliated militias.

It is the latest amid increased hostilities against the backdrop of the Israel-Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with an iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
war with Israel on the cusp of launching its long-threatened ground offensive in Rafah, south of Gaza along the border with Egypt.

Last week, an Israeli strike on Damascus injured eight Syrian army soldiers. It was the first on the city since a deadly strike on the consular annex section of the Iranian embassy on April 1, which Tehran blamed on Israel.

Link

Terror Networks

Iran's proxies target Israel: Here's what to know about them

2024-04-14

[Jpost] Iranian pro-government media said in the early hours of April 14 that it had attacked Israel on four fronts. This included attacks by Iran itself using drones and missiles, as well as threats from Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Iran has spread its proxies throughout the region. These groups pose an increasing threat to Israel and Israel’s partners and allies. It’s important to understand who these groups are and what their capabilities may be.

HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah is the largest and oldest of the Iranian partner and proxy groups in the region. Founded in the 1980s, it has played an increasingly influential role in Lebanon, essentially controlling who is elected president and controlling parts of the economy. Hezbollah has stockpiled more than 150,000 rockets over the last thirty years. Some of these are short-range rockets that threaten northern Galilee. Other Hezbollah rockets are long-range and can threaten all of Israel, almost to Eilat. In addition, Hezbollah increasingly has precision-guided munitions, meaning it can target strategic infrastructure with precision. In addition, Hezbollah is now believed to have 2,000 drones, which it has increasingly used against Israel. Hezbollah also has anti-tank missiles and thousands of fighters. Some of its fighters are part of its more elite “Radwan” force. Hezbollah has suffered casualties in its attacks on Israel since October 8. Around 250 of its members have been killed. This is a setback for the group. It has also carried out around 3,100 attacks on Israel.

THE HOUTHIS
The Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have been increasingly a threat since 2015. Originally a small rebel movement, they burst on the scene in 2015 when they took over a swath of Yemen. They are based in the mountains around Sana’a, but they also threatened the coastal cities of Aden and Hodeidah. This caused Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries to intervene in Yemen in 2015. The Houthis received ballistic missile and drone technology from Iran and built an impressive local industry to create long-range missiles and drones. They also developed cruise missiles. Iran used these weapons to target Saudi Arabia, including Riyadh. After October 7 the Houthis began to target Eilat using drones and cruise missiles and then ballistic missiles. Later, the Houthis began targeting ships. It has carried out dozens of attacks on commercial ships, and it has hijacked one ship. It claims to be targeting Israeli-linked and Western ships. The Houthi capabilities have expanded greatly in the last several years. Beginning in 2020, Iran also based its Shahed 136 drones in Yemen. The Houthis now can strike at southern Israel with their weapons.

THE IRAQI MILITIAS
Iran has been backing militias in Iraq since the 1980s. Key militia leaders such as Hadi al-Amiri, the head of the Badr organization, and the late Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis were close to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Abu Mahdi was active in supporting Iran’s terrorist causes in the 1980s, such as targeting Kuwait and other countries and groups. After the US invasion of 2003, the Iranian-backed militias began to increase their power in Iraq, feeding off the power vacuum. Abu Mahdi’s Kataib Hezbollah became the vanguard of these militias. It was joined not only by Badr but also by Asaib Ahl al-Haq, whose leader, Qias Khazali, had once been detained by the Americans in Iraq. Other groups popped up as well, such as Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba. In 2014, after ISIS invaded Iraq, the Iranian-backed militias formed the backbone of a paramilitary army called the Popular Mobilization Forces, which numbered more than 100,000 fighters. After the defeat of ISIS in 2017 in Iraq, the militias became an official government-paid force linked to the Iraqi Interior Ministry. In essence, they became the Iranian IRGC of Iraq. The groups then stockpiled missiles and drones. They began to operate more freely in Syria and to threaten US forces and Israel. They also carried out kidnappings, such as the kidnapping of researcher Elizabeth Tsurkov in 2023. They murdered key Iraqi intellectuals and targeted Kurds. They have targeted Israel since October 7, using long-range drones to target Iraq and other areas.

IRANIAN MILITIAS IN SYRIA
Iran’s IRGC operates in Syria. During the Syrian civil war, Iran recruited many groups to support the Assad regime. These included Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, and also Shi’ites from Afghanistan and Pakistan. In 2018, Iran began to build up more bases for these groups, such as the Imam Ali base near Albukamal and also encouraged Hezbollah to open its “Golan file” to threaten Israel from the Golan. Iran also moved drones to Syria and tried to move air defenses to its T-4 base in 2018. The Iranian-backed militias in Syria are disparate and have varying capabilities, but most of them are relatively weak. They have targeted US forces and also Israel. They usually require close IRGC supervision and guidance.

PALESTINIAN ISLAMIC JIHAD
Palestinian Islamic Jihad is an Iranian proxy group that is also a Palestinian group. Unlike Hezbollah or the militias in Iraq, it is not a Shi’ite group. PIJ has terrorists in Gaza and participated in the October 7 attack. It had thousands of rockets and thousands of fighters in Gaza, but it has taken losses over six months of war. In the West Bank, PIJ is active mostly in Jenin, where it also has hundreds of members. It has benefited from the illegal trafficking of rifles in the West Bank and has tried to increase its stockpile of weapons and explosives and move into IED (explosive) production. The group is relatively small but has destabilized the northern West Bank and poses an increasing threat.

Link

Southeast Asia

Philippine govt soldiers kill 8 suspected Islamic State-linked militants in Mindanao firefight

2024-01-28

[BenarNews] Eight suspected Filipino snuffies belonging to a local group allied with Islamic State

That would be the attack on Mindanao State University.

According to military officials, the Filipino snuffies were apparently acting under the instructions of the Islamic State, which had earlier owned up to the attack.

"During the military operations the troops killed eight enemies," Brig. Gen. Yegor Rey Baroquillo Jr., commander of the 103rd, told BenarNews. After the firefight, troops retrieved the bodies of the slain bad boys, he said.

Baroquillo said four members of the Scout Rangers, who were maimed in the fighting, were brought to a local hospital. He did not divulge the extent of their wounds.

He said the troops were after the Marawi bombers and that search operations were focused on three Lanao towns believed to be strongholds of the DI-Maute: Pantao Ragat, Poona PIagapo and Munai.

Brig. Gen. Anthon Abrina, commander of the 2nd Mechanized Infantry Brigade, told BenarNews in a phone interview that "we are on heightened, red alert status following the encounter Thursday evening."

Troop reinforcements have been brought in and several checkpoints were established along the national highway leading to the areas "to ensure the safety of civilians in their respective communities," Abrina said.

The towns in Lanao are near the city of Marawi, where the bombing took place.

Military chief Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. has blamed the DI-Maute group for the bombing, saying it was carried out as Dire Revenge for a military operation elsewhere in the south that left over a dozen snuffies killed.

Two of those killed were identified as Mundi Sawadjaan and Jalandoni Lucsadato. Sawadjaan has been identified as a sub-leader of the Abu Sayyaf
...also known as al-Harakat al-Islamiyya, an Islamist terror group based in Jolo, Basilan and Zamboanga. Since its inception in the early 1990s, the group has carried out bombings, kidnappings, murders, head choppings, and extortion in their uniquely Islamic attempt to set up an independent Moslem province in the Philippines. Abu Sayyaf forces probably number less than 300 cadres. The group is closely allied with remnants of Indonesia's Jemaah Islamiya and has loose ties with MILF and MNLF who sometimes provide cannon fodder...
, another Islamic State-linked group in the southern Philippines.

He was also the nephew of the late Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan, who was thought to be the group’s leader before he was killed in 2020. The elder Sawadjaan at one time was also named as the IS leader for the Philippines.

Hatib Hajan Sawadjaan also criminal masterminded a January 2019 bombing at a Catholic church on southern Jolo island that killed 23 people including an Indonesian couple blamed for the suicide kaboom, according to Philippine authorities.

Link

India-Pakistan

Iran and Pakistan exchanged missile strikes. What to expect next

2024-01-19

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semeno

[REGNUM] On January 18, Islamabad said its forces had launched "a series of well-coordinated and targeted precision military strikes" against Iran's southeastern Sistan and Baluchistan province in an operation called Marg Bar Sarmachar. This broadly translates to “death to the partisans.”

"Several" militants were killed during the operation, Pakistan's foreign ministry added.

Islamabad also noted that in recent years it has expressed concern to Tehran about “shelters and shelters” in Iran for Pakistani Baloch separatists, whom Pakistan calls “Sarmachar.” The Pakistani authorities, as they themselves claim, wanted the Iranian side to share data regarding the presence and activities of these militants.

“Sarmachar” refers to two groups, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF), that are fighting for greater regional autonomy for Pakistani Balochistan, even to the point of granting it independence from Pakistan. At the same time, their militants often commit terrorist acts and kill journalists.

ISLAMABAD'S "MIRROR RESPONSE"
Pakistan's actions are a "mirror response" to Iran's attacks on Pakistani soil two days earlier.

On Tuesday evening, January 16, Iran's IRGC forces allegedly attacked the headquarters of the Jaysh al-Adl movement in Pakistan. This group conducts its anti-government activities in the province of Sistan and Baluchistan in Iran, seeking to transform this region into an independent Islamic emirate.

The Pakistani government strongly condemned Tehran's actions and said the strikes killed two children and wounded three others.

“ What is even more alarming is that this illegal act occurred despite the existence of multiple channels of communication between Pakistan and Iran, ” the Pakistan Foreign Ministry said. “ Pakistan has always said that terrorism is a common threat to all countries in the region, which requires coordinated action.”

The Pakistani Foreign Ministry recalled the ambassador from Iran, and Islamabad stated that it reserves the right to retaliate. And, as you can see, these measures did not take long to arrive.

In turn, Tehran has now expressed protest against Pakistan’s “anti-terrorist operation” on its own territory. According to the Iranian Tasnim agency, Pakistan's charge d'affaires in Tehran was summoned to the Iranian Foreign Ministry after a missile strike on the territory of the Islamic Republic.

“A Pakistani diplomat was summoned to the ministry in the absence of the ambassador (as the ambassador was recalled for consultations after the Iranian attacks) to give an explanation regarding several explosions in areas near the city of Serawan in the province of Sistan and Baluchistan that occurred earlier today,” the report said.

Thus, we can say that Tehran, with its great-power ambitions, has finally met with an equally ambitious regional player in the person of Islamabad, and at the same time possessing nuclear weapons.

Pakistan, unlike many neighboring countries that have suffered to one degree or another from Iran’s actions, did not wait to respond and was not afraid of a possible escalation.

Another question is that such Pakistani-Iranian disagreements can, if the parties wish, be resolved quickly enough, since both countries are China’s closest partners, with which they are closely connected not only economically, but also military-politically. Islamabad, however, is larger, Tehran somewhat smaller.

In general, it cannot be ruled out that Pakistan’s retaliatory actions were carried out under the control of Beijing and could even be coordinated with Tehran. But we will know about this only by how Iran ultimately responds to Pakistani attacks.

In addition, both Pakistan and Iran are members of the SCO and the Organization has a good reason to remind itself and its security dimension in the form of the SCO anti-terrorist center in Tashkent. The SCO could invite both countries to develop a certain algorithm for joint actions against terrorist and separatist Baloch groups that use the territories of Pakistan and Iran for attacks from both sides of the border.

HOT BALOCHISTAN
The territory of Baluchistan, a geographical region inhabited by the Baluchis, one of the Indo-European peoples, is divided between Pakistan and Iran. In these territories there are various groups seeking independence from Islamabad and Tehran, respectively. Moreover, these movements are often sponsored by external forces.

Thus, Iran previously, before normalizing relations with Riyadh, accused Saudi Arabia of supporting Sunni jihadist groups present in the Iranian province of Sistan and Baluchestan.

At the moment, a whole mosaic of various Sunni formations is still active there. Most of them arose from the foundations of the leading rebel faction of Iranian Balochistan, Jundallah, which was never able to recover from the defeat in 2010-2011.

It should be noted that the leader of Jundallah himself, Abdulmalik Rigi, rejected accusations that Jundallah is a radical Salafi organization.

“We’re not radical,” he said. “We’re correct. It’s just that everyone else is lax or straight-up heretical. Dunno why they all call us taqfiris.”

Its closest analogue before the split was the Afghan Taliban (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation), which adheres to Hanafi jurisprudence and Maturidi theology, traditional for the region.

Nowadays, Jaysh al-Adl, close to Jundallah and founded by its former members, is among the most active Sunni jihadist groups in Iranian Balochistan.

There are also other anti-government groups operating in Iranian Balochistan. Such as “Harakat Ansar al Iran”, renamed “Harakat al Ansar” - also a “splinter” of “Jundallah”, part of which merged with another independent Islamist Baloch faction “Hizb al Furqan” into a new structure - “Ansar al Furqan”. However, the activity of this group began to decline after the death of its leader Hisham Azizi in 2015.

It’s been a while since we used the Toad the Wet Sprocket analogy.

In turn, secular nationalist groups of Baloch separatists with a left-wing Marxist bias, such as the Balochistan Liberation Front and the Baluchistan Liberation Army, are active in Pakistan. They also, according to the Pakistani authorities, enjoy the protection of external forces, primarily India.

Pakistan would say that.

During their first stage of activity in the 70s of the last century, they fought not only against Pakistan, but also against Iran. And only in the 2000s did they completely refocus on the confrontation with Islamabad. It is likely that the FOB and AOB were able to maintain their secret bases on Iranian territory, ceasing the fight with Tehran, so as not to further irritate the Iranian authorities.

On the other hand, it is obvious that the attacks on the secret cells of Jaysh al-Adl by Iran were largely in the nature of a PR campaign and were not aimed at suppressing terrorist activity.

They were supposed to demonstrate that Iran has become a full-fledged regional power that is capable of suppressing any threats in neighboring states. And thereby putting it on a par with the United States or Israel, which also act against any hostile forces outside their territory.

*Snicker*

ECHO OF GAZA
But in any case, it should be borne in mind that the current Iran-Pakistan escalation is associated with Israeli aggression against the Gaza Strip.

“Doze Juices made us do it!”

The events of October 7 thus became a trigger for regional escalation, which is already extending beyond the Middle East.

It is unlikely that Iran would launch strikes on the territory of Pakistan, where, according to Tehran, Jaish al-Adl terrorists are hiding, if it were not for the need to respond to the actions of the United States and Israel, which killed IRGC officers in Damascus and the leaders of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq.

So they killed a couple of Pakistani tribals? How does that punish The Two Satans?

Also, according to Iran, they directed the actions of the terrorist group ISIS (banned in the Russian Federation) during the terrorist attack in Kerman. All this was a consequence of growing tensions between Iran, on the one hand, and the United States and Israel, on the other, due to the events in Gaza.

Oy.

But against this background, Iran had to somehow demonstrate its readiness to suppress threats from another direction, namely from Pakistani Baluchistan, from where jihadist militants infiltrated into the country and committed terrorist attacks. In this case, an Iranian strike on “friendly” Iraq while ignoring the response in the direction of Pakistan could cause even greater misunderstanding in Baghdad.

It must be really interesting inside their heads...

Iraq, despite its close ties with the Islamic Republic, filed a complaint against the actions of its neighbor to the UN Security Council.

Client kitten bares claws?

However, it is unlikely that Iran's actions will lead to anything more serious. Of course, tensions in the region will increase, but Tehran’s actions themselves are more likely aimed at the domestic Iranian audience. It should have no doubt that the Islamic Republic is ready to destroy its opponents along the perimeter of the country's borders and is not afraid to do this by striking American and Israeli targets.

Did they find their targets by tracking the spy squirrels?

Another question is, are the places where the Iranian missiles fell really the CIA and Mossad bases from where attacks on Iran were coordinated, or were they simply declared so by the IRGC itself?

To ask the question is to answer it.

The same applies to Jaysh al-Adl cells in Pakistan.

The bottom line is that the result of the Iranian attacks on Iraq was the murder of the Kurdish tycoon Peshrav Zeya, who, if the Iranians are to be believed again, was a Mossad agent, but it is not possible to verify or refute this.

Thus, Tehran’s algorithm of actions is as follows:

First, blame the terrorist attack in Kerman on the United States and Israel, which allegedly manage and direct ISIS terrorists. Then take revenge for this terrorist attack by targeting some CIA and Mossad bases in Iraq, which, by the way, neither the United States nor Israel consider their targets. Iran itself declared them as such, and therefore the United States will not take retaliatory actions. Which is exactly what Tehran needed.

All this fits well within the framework of a resonant response that would not lead to a regional war that Iran does not need.

Ouch.

At the same time, the initial story about the alleged complete destruction of the American consulate in Erbil as a result of an Iranian strike with the corresponding footage was most likely made deliberately. For many in the Middle East, this fake story began to take on a life of its own as evidence that it is not only the Houthis who are capable of challenging the United States.

Even though the destruction never happened, those perfidious Yanks being entirely too facile with their anti-drone technology. But reality is not really a factor in that part of the world, poor darlings.

Resonance was all Tehran needed in this situation.

But it is obvious that in the case of Pakistan, Iran did not calculate the reaction. Pakistan has never been afraid to escalate with the much stronger India, and certainly will not retreat in front of Iran.

But at the same time, Tehran itself is by no means eager to enter into confrontation with Islamabad, opening up another front for itself. Therefore, the question is whether Iran will be able not to “follow the principle” and not respond with blows to blows, taking the escalation to a new level.

Interesting times. Especially for the Mad Mullahs, who aren’t getting any of the wars they want.

Link

Arabia

About the disappearance of American Navy SEALs near Yemen

2024-01-15

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

Text taken from Russian military correspondent Rybar.

Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics.
[ColonelCassad] The search for missing US Navy SEALs continues for the third day in the Red Sea.

According to American media reports, citing some officials, two SEALs fell into the water during a night operation one after another.

The statement did not disclose what type of operation the sailors were conducting at the time. But they were "deployed to the US 5th Fleet (C5F) area of operations to support a wide range of missions."

CNN clarifies that the cause of the fall was “eight-foot waves,” and the second fighter jumped after the first in an attempt to save him.

And this casts some doubt on the circumstances of the incident.

Firstly, eight-foot waves (about 2.5 meters) are not unusual for the region at this time of year, although the human factor cannot be ruled out.

Secondly, the disappearance of the SEALs surprisingly coincided with a massive attack by the Yemeni Houthis. There is a lot of room for imagination here: up to the possibility of an American ship being hit as a result of return fire.

Another scenario could be an operation against Harakat al-Shabbab or the Somali branch of the Islamic State. Although in the latter case, the United States usually admits or at least partially publishes the circumstances of the incident in general terms.

In addition, one should not discount the attempt to land a special forces group on Yemeni territory. Not the entire coastline is controlled by the Houthis, but an agreement could be reached with UAE- or Saudi-controlled forces.

And the last likely scenario could be the legalization of losses in other crisis zones of the world. For example, you can drown in the Red Sea while staying in a Kharkov hotel.

It looks like the Houthis scored at least one hit on the American ship (which the Houthis claimed) and two people simply died there, while the ship itself maintained its course and continued to operate off the coast of Yemen.

Link

Iraq

US says Iraqi police seized Iranian missile in Babil

2024-01-07

[Rudaw] The United States army on Friday said that Iraqi police found "a land attack cruise missile of Iranian design" in Babil province two days prior. After a deadly US strike on an Iraqi militia, Baghdad authorities have denied coordinating with the Americans in the fight against militias accused of recent drone and rocket attacks.

"On Jan. 3, Iraqi police in Babylon discovered a land attack cruise missile of Iranian design that failed to launch. The use of Iranian supplied munitions by terrorist groups within Iraq and Syria endanger Coalition forces and local residents," US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a post on X.

"The Coalition is appreciative of the efforts of the legitimate security forces in Iraq for their efforts to prevent future attacks," it added.

Babil Police Command on Wednesday, sharing the same image as CENTCOM, said they "found a drone belonging to unknown people on the international highway, and it exploded on site by anti-explosives detachments without any significant incident."

American officials have recently underscored collaboration with Iraqi security forces to combat militia groups that have conducted scores of attacks on US troops in the country, but Baghdad is not happy about the US independently conducting retaliatory strikes.

"We do know that the Iraqi Security Forces have continued to assist in identifying in some cases where these Iranian proxies have conducted attacks against US forces and we're very appreciative of that support," Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said during a press briefing on Thursday.

The following day, Iraq’s Security Media Cell denied that any cooperation exists between Washington and Baghdad regarding the militias and accused the Pentagon spokesperson of "mixing the cards."

"We strongly deny the existence of such cooperation. On the contrary, yesterday's attack was carried out directly without the knowledge of any Iraqi military or security entity, as is the case with recent attacks that targeted security sites," read the statement.

On Thursday, the US carried out an ~~Arclight~~ airstrike
...KABOOM!...
in Baghdad, targeting the Harakat al-Nujaba, which comprises the 12th brigade of the Popular Mobilization Forces’ (PMF, or Hashd al-Shaabi). The strike killed two people, including Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi - a former commander of al-Nujaba and the deputy commander of the PMF’s Baghdad Belt Operations. Another six people were maimed in the strike, according to PMF media.

Iraqi militia groups are blamed for more than 100 attacks, mainly on US interests in Iraq and Syria, since mid-October, in response to Washington’s support for Israel in its war on Hamas
Hamas

...a contraction of the Arabic words for "frothing at the mouth",...
in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with an iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudan
...a Moslem country located in the Horn of Africa. It is noted for its affinity for rule by ex- or current generals, its holy men, and for the oppression of the native Afro population by its Arab conquerors. South Sudan, populated mostly by the natives, split off from Sudan proper, which left North and South Darfur to be oppressed by the guys with turbans...
i has described the attacks as terrorism, but has also condemned the US’ retaliatory strikes.

Baghdad is now taking the first steps towards removing from the country foreign troops that were invited to assist in the war against the Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not really Moslems....
(ISIS).

"The government is in the process of setting the date to start working on the bilateral committee to make arrangements to permanently end the presence of the international coalition forces in Iraq," Sudani said during a memorial ceremony held by the PMF to commemorate the liquidation of Iranian top commander Qasem Soleimani and former deputy chief of the PMF Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

Link

Iraq

Iraq works to permanently end US-led coalition presence

2024-01-06

We tried that before, during President Obama’s reign, and look where that got Iraq.

[Rudaw] Iraq is working to establish a bilateral committee to end the presence of the US-led coalition against the Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not really Moslems....
(ISIS) in the country, its prime minister said on Friday while condemning a deadly American dronezap on a pro-Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate ~~Jews~~ ~~Zionists~~ Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
militia in Baghdad the previous day.

An American dronezap against the pro-Iran Harakat al-Nujaba, which comprises the Popular Mobilization Forces’ (PMF, or Hashd al-Shaabi) 12th Brigade in Iraq’s capital of Baghdad on Thursday killed two, including Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi, better known as Abu Taqwa, a former commander of al-Nujaba and the deputy commander of PMF’s Baghdad Belt Operations.

"The government is in the process of setting the date to start working on the bilateral committee to make arrangements to permanently end the presence of the international coalition forces in Iraq," Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudan
Sudan

...a Moslem country located in the Horn of Africa. It is noted for its affinity for rule by ex- or current generals, its holy men, and for the oppression of the native Afro population by its Arab conquerors. South Sudan, populated mostly by the natives, split off from Sudan proper, which left North and South Darfur to be oppressed by the guys with turbans...
i said during a memorial ceremony held by the PMF commemorating the liquidation of Iranian top commander Qasem Soleimani and former deputy chief of the PMF Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.

"We will not neglect anything that will give Iraq complete national illusory sovereignty over its land and skies," Sudani said, strongly condemning the US strike a day prior.

Link

Iraq

US claims strike that killed Shiite PMF big turban in Baghdad, names him for the record; Iraqi gov’t protests

2024-01-05

Follow up to this story from yesterday.

[IsraelTimes] PMF leader’s vehicle hit, according to US official; paramilitary force says Mushtaq Talib al-Saidi ’martyred’ in attack

The US military has carried out a strike in Baghdad against an Iraqi militia leader it blames for attacks against US forces in the country, killing him and another person, a US official told Rooters on Thursday.

The US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the strike hit a vehicle in Baghdad. It targeted a leader of Harakat al Nujaba,

...more formally Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, officially the 12th Brigade, is a radical Iraqi Shi'ite paramilitary group that is especially active in Syria and Iraq. It was established in 2013 by Akram al-Kaabi to support Bashar al-Assad in Syria against Islamist rebels, at the behest of the IRGC's Quds Force, which provides the funding, weapons, and training....

the official said, without naming the person.

Earlier Thursday, the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) said that the strike in Baghdad had killed a military commander of the ex-paramilitary force, with an Iraq security official reporting two deaths in a drone attack.

"A drone targeted the logistical support headquarters of PMF," mainly pro-Iranian former paramilitary units integrated into the Iraqi armed forces, said the security official.

The strike killed "two members and maimed seven others," said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity
... for fear of being murdered...
A PMF source, also asking not to be named, confirmed the corpse count and charged that the United States was behind the attack.

Harakat al-Nujaba, one of the PMF’s factions, said in a statement that "the deputy commander of operations for Baghdad, Mushtaq Talib al-Saidi" had been "martyred in a US strike."

There was no immediate comment from US officials, whose forces in Iraq and neighboring Syria have faced a surge in attacks since the start of the Israel-Hamas
Hamas

...a contraction of the Arabic words for "frothing at the mouth",...
war.

Videos shared on a Telegram channel linked to the PMF showed columns of smoke rising above the area of the strike on Baghdad’s Paleostine Street, normally a bustling commercial road.

Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudan
...a Moslem country located in the Horn of Africa. It is noted for its affinity for rule by ex- or current generals, its holy men, and for the oppression of the native Afro population by its Arab conquerors. South Sudan, populated mostly by the natives, split off from Sudan proper, which left North and South Darfur to be oppressed by the guys with turbans...
i said in a statement that the US-led international coalition bears responsibility for the "unjustified" attack on an Iraqi security force.

A tally by US military officials has counted at least 118 attacks against its troops in Iraq and Syria since October 17. Most of the attacks have been claimed by the Islamic Resistance® in Iraq, a loose formation of gangs affiliated with the PMF (also known as Hashed al-Shaabi), itself a coalition of former paramilitary forces integrated into Iraq’s regular armed forces.

The spike in tension has put Baghdad in a delicate situation. Iraq’s Prime Minister Sudani has tried to ease the strain between the krazed killer groups that helped him reach power and the US where Iraq’s foreign reserves are housed.

More from regnum.ru
Iraq reported that a pro-Iranian movement commander was killed in a UAV strike

[Regnum] A drone strike in the Iraqi capital killed one of the commanders of the pro-Iranian Shiite movement Hezbollah al-Nujabaa, as well as its supporter, the Shafaq News information portal reported on January 4, citing a source in the security forces.

According to him, the deceased was known as Abu Taqwa, he headed the 12th brigade of the movement, and was also a supporter of the Iraqi Shiite militia Al-Hashd al-Shaabi.

Hezbollah al-Nujabaa confirmed the death of the commander and blamed the United States for what happened. The target of the UAV attack, according to the portal's sources, was the headquarters of the logistics forces in Baghdad.

As Regnum reported, on January 3, two explosions occurred in the Iranian city of Kerman during a mourning ceremony on the anniversary of the death of General Qassem Soleimani. They were carried out remotely; the bombs were placed in bags that were lying near the mausoleum building. 103 people died, the number of injured exceeded 200 people.

Authorities called the incident a terrorist attack. Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi promised to find and punish those involved in the terrorist attack in Kerman. He also called on all officials to provide assistance to those injured during the terrorist attack.

The US State Department said on January 3 that the United States was not involved in the explosions in Iran and saw no reason to blame Israel for this. The White House is “closely monitoring” the situation in Iran, department spokesman Matthew Miller emphasized.

Update at 4:05 p.m. ET — Rudaw clarifies:

Harakat al-Nujaba comprises the PMF’s 12th brigade, and is among the Iran-backed groups that Washington blames for a spate of drone attacks on American interests in Iraq and Syria since mid-October in response to American support for Israel in its war against Palestinian Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip.

Among the casualties is Mushtaq Talib al-Saeedi, better known as Abu Taqwa. He was a former commander of al-Nujaba and the deputy commander of the PMF’s Baghdad Belt Operations.

Link

Iraq

US Carries Out Strike in Baghdad Against Militia Leader

2024-01-04

[Newsmax] The U.S. military has carried out a strike in Baghdad against an Iraqi militia leader

...the Iraqi militias are officially subordinate to the Iraqi army, but really they are owned by Iran...

it blames for attacks against U.S. forces in the country, killing him, a U.S. official said Thursday.
Embraced martyrdom, did he?
The U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the strike hit a vehicle in Baghdad. It targeted a leader of Harakat al Nujaba,

... Movement of the Noble, an Iranian-supported Shiite militia which operates in both Iraq and Syria, and presumably has been attacking American bases in both...

the official said, without naming the person.

At least four militia fighters were killed and six others wounded in the drone strike, police and security sources told Reuters.

Police sources and eyewitnesses said at least two rockets struck inside a building used by Iraqi militia group.

A local commander and one of his aides were killed in the strike, said police and the group's spokesperson. The death toll later rose to four after one fighter died of his wounds. Health sources confirmed the toll.

The spokesperson and two Iraqi militia commanders threatened to retaliate against the U.S. for the attack.
Of COURSE they did
"We will retaliate and make the Americans regret carrying out this aggression," said Abu Aqeel al-Moussawi, a local Iraqi militia commander.

Police and militia sources said rockets targeted a vehicle inside the Nujaba'a headquarters killing a local commander of the group and one of his aides. Two other members of the group were killed in the strike.

Video footage published by pro-militia websites showed a destroyed vehicle in flames and claimed it was targeted during the strike.

Reuters could not independently verify the authenticity of the footages.

Iraqi security forces were deployed in the area and a security team has reached the site for initial investigation, said two security sources.

Last month, the United States carried out retaliatory air strikes in Iraq after a drone attack by Iran-aligned militants that left one U.S. service member in critical condition and wounded two others.

The U.S. military has already come under attack at least 100 times in Iraq and Syria since the Israel-Hamas war began in October, usually with a mix of rockets and one-way attack drones.

The United States has 900 troops in Syria and 2,500 in Iraq on a mission it says aims to advise and assist local forces trying to prevent a resurgence of Islamic State, which in 2014 seized large swaths of both countries before being defeated.

Link

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