Warning: Undefined array key "rbname" in /data/rantburg.com/www/rantburg/pgrecentorg.php on line 14
Hello !
Recent Appearances... Rantburg

Africa North
Journalists, farmers syndicates withdraw from Egypt's Constituent Assembly
2012-11-26
[Al Ahram] The Journalists Syndicate Council announced Tuesday its withdrawal from Egypt's Constituent Assembly, citing the assembly's refusal to listen to the syndicate's recommendations.

The decision came after an urgent council meeting that resulted in a unanimous vote in favour of withdrawal.

The council criticised what it said were violations of freedom of expression in the current draft constitution. Moreover, it criticised the assembly's disregard for journalists' demands to protect press independence, to prohibit the closing down of media outlets or the confiscation of newspapers.

Last week, Journalists Syndicate Secretary-General Gamal Fahmy threatened to withdraw from the assembly in protest at the draft articles.

Fahmy, who writes for Al-Tahrir newspaper, was among a number of prominent journalists who in August left their columns blank in protest at what they said was an attempt by the Moslem Brüderbund to control state-owned newspapers and publications.

Tuesday also saw the Farmers Syndicate representative, Mohamed Abdel-Qader, withdraw from the assembly, saying the farmers' constitutional demands were ignored. Those include that the state provides irrigation and reclaimed lands for youth.

On Thursday, representatives of all of Egypt's Churches met and agreed to withdraw from the Islamist-led assembly in protest at a number of articles revealed in the latest draft.

The beleaguered assembly has already suffered a number of withdrawals since 11 June, when the 'Egyptian Bloc' parties -- including the Free Egyptians, the Egyptian Social Democratic Party and the leftist Tagammu Party -- initiated a walk-out, followed by the Karama Party, the Socialist Popular Alliance Party and the Democratic Front Party, to allow greater representation for women, young people and Coptic Christians, while also registering their objection to "Islamist monopolisation" of the assembly.

Meanwhile,
...back at the precinct house, Sergeant Maloney wasn't buying it. It was just too pat. It smelled phony...
the assembly is still facing the risk of dissolution by court order due to a case challenging the constitutionality of the law which set the criteria for choosing its members. The 100 assembly members were chosen by the now-dissolved parliament, which was ruled unconstitutional by the High Constitutional Court (HCC) in mid-June.

On 23 October, the Supreme Administrative Court referred the lawsuit challenging the assembly's constitutionality to the HCC, which is yet to issue its verdict. It has been claimed that some assembly members are attempting to draft the constitution quickly and submit it for a national referendum before the court issues its verdict.

The first assembly was dissolved in April after a court ruling stated it was not representative of Egyptian society. The same criticism is being directed at the current constitution-drafting body.
Link


Africa North
Egypt’s Islamists secure 75 percent of parliament
2012-01-22
CAIRO: Final results on Saturday showed that Islamist parties won nearly three-quarters of the seats in parliament in Egypt’s first elections since the ouster of authoritarian president Hosni Mubarak, according to election officials and political groups. A coalition led by the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood won 47 percent, or 235 seats in the 498-seat parliament. The ultraconservative Al-Nour Party was second with 25 percent, or 125 seats.

The Salifi Al-Nour, which was the biggest surprise of the vote, wants to impose strict Islamic law in Egypt, while the more moderate Brotherhood, the country’s best-known and organized party, has said publicly that it does not seek to force its views about an appropriate Islamic lifestyle on Egyptians.

The two parties are unlikely to join forces because of ideological differences, but both have a long history of charity work in Egypt’s vast poverty-stricken neighborhoods and villages, giving them a degree of legitimacy and popularity across the country in areas where newer liberal parties have yet to get a foothold.

The liberals who spearheaded the revolt that toppled Mubarak struggled to organize and connect with a broader public in the vote, and did not fair as well as the Islamists. The Egyptian bloc, which is headed by a party founded by Christian telecom tycoon Naguib Sawiris, said it won 9 percent of the seats in parliament. Egypt’s oldest secular party, the Wafd, also won around 9 percent.

Newer parties, such as the liberal Revolution Continues Party won 2 percent, as did the Islamist Center Party, which had been banned from politics under Mubarak.

The results leave the liberal groups with little ability to maneuver in parliament, unless they choose to mobilize the street in protests or work on key issues with the dominant Islamist groups, said Mohamed Abu-Hamed, the deputy leader of the liberal Free Egyptians Party.

“The most important element that led Islamists to win is their use of Islamic language in their outreach,” Abu-Hamed told The Associated Press. “They pressured people’s religious conscience."

Abu-Hamed vowed that the Egyptian Bloc will take to the streets and hold sit-ins inside parliament if the new legislator passes laws that discriminate against minorities or oversteps its boundaries.

The final tally, which includes at least 15 seats for former regime figures, comes as little surprise since election results had been partially announced throughout the three stages of the vote, which took place over several weeks across the country. Egypt’s elections commission acknowledged that there were voting irregularities, but the election has been hailed as the country’s freest and fairest vote in living memory.
Link


Africa North
Egypt Islamists sweep 2nd voting round
2011-12-25
[AFP] Egypt's main Islamist parties won 65% of votes for party lists in the second round of a historic election for a new parliament after Hosni Mubarak
...The former President-for-Life of Egypt, dumped by popular demand in early 2011...
's ouster, the electoral committee said on Saturday.

The Freedom and Justice Party
They're the Muslim Brotherhood
won 36.5% of the vote for party lists, with 4,058 498 out of 11,173,818 votes, according to figures provided by the electoral committee for the second round which was held on December 14.

Al-Nur
The Salafists
won 28.78%, with 3,216,430 votes.

In Egypt's complex electoral system, voters cast ballots for party list candidates who will make up two thirds of parliament, and direct votes for individual candidates for the remaining third.

The elections were scheduled over three rounds, with run-offs for individual candidates after each round.

Protests

At a news conference on Saturday, electoral chief Abdel Moez Ibrahim announced the winners for the individual vote, but not their affiliations. The official Al-Ahram newspaper reported that the FJP won 40 seats and Al-Nur 13.

The Islamists' liberal rivals fared badly again in the second round, with Al-Wafd - the country's oldest party - winning 9.6% of the party list vote and the Egyptian Bloc, the main liberal coalition, just 7%.

After winning almost 65% of seats in the first round of the vote, Islamists are poised to dominate the next lower house which will convene on January 23.

The third round of the election will start on January 3, followed by another three-round poll for the senate.

The FJP has said it would have the right to form the next government, but the ruling military and the prime minister it appointed have said parliament could not appoint ministers.

The military, which has faced down days of deadly protests in November and this month, says it will transfer power to civilians after a presidential election is held by the end of June 2012.
Link


Africa North
2nd Round of elections for lower house in Egypt: Underway
2011-12-15
From the Arabist.net, the author of the predictions below is an anti American, anti Israel secularist reporter who has lived in and around Cairo since about 2000; he appears frequently on al Jazeera (english).
Attempts by secular forces to coordinate their strategies and pick winners in certain districts will be tried in some places, even if coalitions such as Revolution Continues haev expressed unwillingness to deal with Egyptian Bloc candidates with ties to the old regime. I expect very limited success for this strategy because it was too late to take candidates off the ballot, and no one has the reach to marshall voters into casting their ballot more strategically.

That being said, voters will take their own initiative. I suspect the Egyptian Bloc, being the big winner among the secular parties in the first round, will be the logical choice for tactical voting.

Expect the FJP-Nour battle to intensify, particularly for IC seats
the seats reserved for individuals rather than party list candidates.
Nour
the salafists
lost most of those in the runoff last time, while the FJP
the moslem brotherhood
was taken off-guard by Nour's succcess in the first round. I wouldn't be surprised if we see tensions between FJP and Nour supporters, either.
Link


Africa North
Egypt: post runoff results of the first 166 lower house seats
2011-12-09
The current division of the Egyptian parliament after the first round (166 seats) is as follows:

Freedom and Justice Party (Muslim Brotherhood) and minor coalition partners: 80 seats
Islamic [salafis] Alliance: 34 seats
Egyptian Bloc: 17 seats (supported by many Copts and liberals)
Wafd Party: 12 seats (anti american, anti Israel but secular)
Revolution Continues Coalition: 5 seats
Center Party (Islamist but more moderate than MB): 4 seats
Justice Party: 1 seat
Former NDP members: 9 seats
Independents: 4 seats

Voter turnout plummeted in the runoff elections. In Cairo's 8th district, voter turnout fell by 51 percent, in Cairo's 4th by 41 percent, in Cairo's 6th by 39 percent, and in Alexandria's 1st by 37 percent. Turnout outside the cities also decreased, though to a lesser extent.
Link


Africa North
Sadat assassination mastermind now free in Egypt
2011-12-05
Aboud al-Zumour is one Egyptian prisoner over whose long incarceration by the Mubarak regime few human rights groups or American diplomats shed a tear.

Convicted of masterminding the assassination of the late President Anwar Sadat, he was a close friend of Ayman Zawahiri, the man now leading al-Qaeda. He still speaks with admiration of his former cell-mate, who he says is a "very kind and nice man". He backs "resistance" against the "occupiers" in the Middle East - America and Israel. In his ideal Egypt, the sale of alcohol would be banned, beaches would be segregated and thieves would have their hands cut off - though, he says "it would not happen because no-one would steal".

Until last week Islamists like him were at the radical fringe, but the first results from last week's election have shown a staggering success for Islamist parties like Mr Zumour's.

Anxious liberal candidates are so worried the hardliners are now heading for a landslide that they are now making desperate appeals to Egyptians to support them in the next two rounds of voting.

Only about eight million votes have been cast so far, and the final result will not emerge for several weeks. What has been counted so far amounts to a crushing blow for the middle-class revolutionaries, both Christians and Muslims, who filled Tahir Square in January and February to force former president Hosni Mubarak from power. They wanted more freedom, yet are now faced with the prospect of newly-confident Islamist parliamentarians determined to enforce Sharia, ban alcohol, and banish many of the rights Egyptian women take for granted.

The cause of their fear is men like Mr Zumour, no longer just another militant but one of a string of Islamist radicals once banned and jailed who have thrown themselves into electoral politics.

The radicals' success showed they can no longer be deemed marginal figures. They now seem certain to play a role for good or ill in the new, hopefully democratic Egypt - and they are becoming deeply divisive figures, although Mr Zumour insists he is ready to share power.

"We want to join a coalition," he told The Sunday Telegraph in an interview at his modest apartment not far from the pyramids of Giza. "People must learn to trust and be comfortable with our Islamic vision, and know that we value peace and mercy and justice and development."
"And killing Juice and infidels."
Mr Zumour spent 30 years in prison for the Sadat killing before being released after the revolution that toppled Mr Sadat's successor, Hosni Mubarak. He is now on the council of Gamaa Islamiya, another militant group previously responsible for numerous murderous attacks on tourists and civilian targets that has, like him, "gone straight".

He estimates it will win seven per cent of the seats in the parliament for which elections began this week. In results declared late on Friday from the first third of seats, the Freedom and Justice Party, created and backed by the Muslim Brotherhood, won more than 30 per cent of the vote in two regions, beating even their expectations.

The brothers were banned and persecuted for decades, yet even when they were underground they became part of the mainstream, winning massive popular support with social programmes.

Gamaa Islamiya's allied party Nour, representing Salafis who follow the puritan Saudi-style version of Sunni Islam, won more than 20 per cent of the vote. It was not clear how much of the vote Gamaa Islamiya had won last night but it appeared to be on course to win several seats. Together the hardline parties beat the liberal Egyptian Bloc into third place, a result profoundly depressing to secular and Christian Egyptians.

If those results are repeated in the next two rounds - as most expect - the Freedom and Justice Party could theoretically form a sweeping Islamist coalition with its radical rivals, something that would send shivers of fear through western capitals.

For all the Islamist parties' professed commitment to peaceful means, co-operation against terrorism with the United States and certainly Israel, subject of vicious Islamist attack, would almost certainly never be the same again.

At home the Brotherhood has sought to portray itself as moderate and committed to personal choice, saying it would not enforce the hijab - the Muslim headscarf for women - or other hardline social codes. But that does little to reassure secular Egyptians.

For Mr Zumour, the election marks an unexpected political renaissance.
Although he did not fire the gun that killed Mr Sadat in 1981, he was the mastermind of Islamic Jihad's revolutionary strategy. He has been quoted as saying he voted within the group's council against the attack; less widely publicised is his addendum that this was because he had decided that 1984 would be a better date, because by then plans would be in place for a full-scale revolution.

He now says he regrets the killing - but only because it brought Mr Mubarak to power, who he says was worse than Mr Sadat because he was both despotic and corrupt, rather than just despotic.

He also says that while he disapproves of killing civilians, Islamist militants across the Middle East, from Palestine to Afghanistan, are fighting "occupiers". "If the Americans leave this region, there is no reason for the struggle," he said. "By staying they are creating the struggle, along with much suffering."

In 1984, Zawahiri, his Islamic Jihad colleague, and other members were released early, a decision which has spawned numerous conspiracy theories. They went on to join the fight against the Russians in Afghanistan and then to the international jihad, eventually joining forces with Osama Bin Laden's al-Qaeda.

"He is a very kind and nice man. He fasts and prays and has a merciful heart and wrote poetry," Mr Zumour said of his old friend now. "But I also advise him publicly, and urge him, against attacks on civilians and tourists. I suggest to him that that is wrong completely."

Mr Zumour was offered deals by the former regime but refused them. Nevertheless, since walking free and joining the newly re-formed Gamaa Islamiya, he has begun to say he would not break the peace treaty with Israel signed by Mr Sadat in 1979 - though like other Islamist parties he would seek to renegotiate trade terms, probably leading in practice to a freezing of most ties.

The Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice party has hinted it is more likely to do deals with middle-of-the-road liberal-leaning parties, than the Islamic radicals. But even so, the popularity of these groups remains alarming to many.

Mr Zumour combines what he says is respect for personal and political choice with views that sound extreme to western ears. "It is not acceptable for women in bikinis to be walking around with men not their husbands," he said. "I would have closed beaches for women only.

"Alcohol in Islam is forbidden - it's not a choice. People can drink in their own houses but I wouldn't give out licences to sell to them, or allow alcohol in hotels."

As for cutting off the hands of thieves, he said it would hardly be necessary because once the threat was available theft would stop. "If we had this policy, would Mubarak have stolen so much?" he said with a laugh.

Christians, Mr Zumour said, would be better protected by the rights accorded them by Sharia than democracy which could theoretically vote to remove them. "The Islamic vision preserves minorities as a right not a gift," he said. "In France democracy banned the niqab (full-face veil) - but here we could never ban priests or nuns."

Egypt's Christians themselves, beleaguered by a string of lethal attacks both before the revolution and after, mostly beg to differ. They were urged by their priests to vote for the liberal Egyptian Bloc put together by the country's best-known Christian businessman, Naguib Sawiris, owner of Orascom, a gigantic business conglomerate.

As the scale of the disaster at the polls became clear, the Egyptian Bloc ran large, and rather desperate sounding, advertisements in newspapers. "Don't soften your support for the civil, moderate current to achieve a balanced parliament that represents the Egyptian people, and do not give up your rights," one read.

In Tunisia, the Islamist Ennahda Party swept to victory in elections on an impeccably moderate manifesto that stressed economic policies and refused to countenance social controls that would affect the country's tourist industry. But since then, radical parties energised by the revolution have staged aggressive rallies against television stations and universities deemed to have offended them, including over mixed classrooms.

In Egypt, even if the Freedom and Justice Party shuns them, it is hard to imagine Salafi and radical parties that may gain up to 25 per cent of the votes settling into quiet opposition. And after 30 years in prison, from which he was once told he would never be released, it is hard to see Mr Zumour going quietly either.
Link


Africa North
Islamists Triumph in Egypt's 1st Round of Elections
2011-12-05
[An Nahar] Islamists trounced their liberal rivals in the opening phase of Egypt's first election since the fall of Hosni Mubarak
...The former President-for-Life of Egypt, dumped by popular demand in early 2011...
, figures showed on Sunday, with one in four voters choosing hardline Salafists.
...Salafists espouse an austere form of Sunni Islam that seeks a return to practices that were common in the 7th century. Rather than doing that themselves and letting other people alone they insist everybody do as they say and they try to kill everybody who doesn't...
Islamist parties won 65 percent of all votes cast for parties in the first round of parliamentary polls, while the secular liberals who played a key part in the January-February uprising managed just 13.4 percent.

Among the Islamist vote, the moderate Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) of the Moslem Brüderbund won 36.6 percent, followed by the hardline Salafist al-Nour party with 24.4 percent and the moderate al-Wasat with 4.3 percent.

"We welcome the Egyptian people's choice," FJP front man Ahmed Sobea told Agence La Belle France Presse. "Egypt now needs all parties to cooperate together to get it out of its crisis."

The Brotherhood had been widely forecast to triumph as the country's most organized political group, well known after decades of charitable work and opposition to Mubarak's 30-year autocratic regime.

But the showing from Salafist groups, which advocate a fundamentalist interpretation of Islam dominant in Soddy Arabia, was a surprise, raising fears of a more conservative and overtly religious 498-member new lower parliament.

The Salafis, newcomers who founded parties only after the toppling of Mubarak in February, trailed the FJP only slightly in the city of Alexandria and won a majority in northern Kafr el-Sheikh and Damietta provinces.

Followers of the Salafi strain of Islam advocate a stricter segregation of the sexes, the full veiling of women, a ban on alcohol and the idea that all illusory sovereignty flows from God.

There were few bright spots for the liberal secular movement which played a key role in the 18-day uprising that led Mubarak to stand down and hand power to a council of army leaders charged with ushering in democracy.

Mohammed Hamed, a candidate with the liberal Free Egyptians party, warned that the Islamists would face widespread resistance if they enforced a strict interpretation of Islam, followed by about 90 percent of Egyptians.

"All the people will turn into the opposition. Most Moslems are not thug. If they do not feel the danger (of hardline Islamism) yet, they will if it is applied," he said.

Mohammed Abdul Ghani, a liberal candidate, told the independent Al-Shorouq newspaper that his movement needed to counter propaganda that "non-Islamist candidates were infidels."

The results in Egypt fit a pattern established in Tunisia and Morocco where Islamists have also gained in elections as they benefit from the new freedoms brought by the pro-democracy movements of the Arab Spring.

Israel, which shares a border and peace agreement with Egypt, expressed deep concern over the trend.

"We are worried," Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz told Israel public radio on Sunday, adding that he hoped Egypt "won't become an thug Islamist state because that would put the whole region in danger."

The Brotherhood has been at pains to stress its commitment to multi-party democracy, inclusiveness and civil liberties, while also advocating the application of sharia law.

Nevertheless, the prospect of an Islamist-dominated parliament raises fears among liberals about religious freedom in a country with the Middle East's largest Christian minority and women's rights.

"Islamic culture is compatible with democratic principles," FJP vice president Essam al-Erian told AFP last week in an effort to counter alleged "Islamophobia
...the irrational fear that Moslems will act the way they usually do...
" in the local media.

Voting on Monday and Tuesday was only the opening phase of an election for a new lower house of parliament that is taking place in three stages, but the returns reveal the main political trends now shaping Egypt.

Only one third of districts have voted. The rest of the country will go the polls in a further two stages later this month and in January.

Voters were required to pass three votes: two for individual candidates and one for a party or coalition.

The figures above are for the party results.

Both the FJP and al-Nour stand to gain further seats in run-off elections on Monday for the individual candidates. Only four out of 56 individual seats were won outright in the first round of voting.

The FJP said it had 45 candidates in the 52 run-offs to be decided on Monday, according to its website. Al-Nour has 26, a party official told AFP.

The Brotherhood and other political parties are now expected to face a fierce power struggle for control with the interim army regime to ensure Egypt's revolution is completed and power is handed over.

The first test will be over the formation of a new caretaker government, with the Brotherhood insisting on the right to form a cabinet to replace the army-appointed administration.

The second struggle will be over a new constitution next year and the relative powers given to parliament, a new president to be elected by next June, and the army.

For Monday and Tuesday's vote, elections committee secretary general Yusri Abdul Karim said final percentages would not be given until the end of balloting for the lower house of parliament on January 10.

The percentages were calculated by AFP on the basis of total number of valid votes cast.

The FJP won 3.56 million out of a total 9.73 million votes cast, or 36.6 percent. Al-Nour party won 2.37 million, or 24.4 percent, and the Wasat party 415,590 votes, or 4.3 percent.

The main liberal coalition, the Egyptian Bloc, won 1.29 million votes or 13.4 percent.

After the lower house is elected in January, Egyptians will go to the polls for a further three rounds of voting to elect an upper chamber.

Link


Africa North
Accept vote results, Egypt's Brotherhood orders tells rivals
2011-12-04
CAIRO: Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood called on its rivals to accept the will of the people on Saturday after a first-round vote set its party on course to take the most seats in the country’s first freely elected parliament in six decades.

The assembly’s popular mandate will give it clout to stand up to the generals who have ruled Egypt for nine turbulent months since Hosni Mubarak’s removal and who are now scrambling to appoint a new interim government after the last one quit.

Preliminary results showed the Brotherhood’s liberal rivals could be pushed into third place behind ultraconservatives,
They're not 'conservatives', they're Islamicists.
mirroring the trend in other Arab countries where political systems have opened up after popular uprisings.

The Brotherhood is Egypt’s best-organized political group and popular among the poor for its long record of charity work. Banned but semi-tolerated under Mubarak, the Brotherhood now wants a role in shaping the country’s future.

Rivals accused the Brotherhood’s Freedom and Justice Party of handing out cheap food and medicine to influence voters and of breaking election rules by lobbying outside voting stations.

The Brotherhood told its critics to respect the result. “We call upon everyone, and all those who associate themselves with democracy, to respect the will of the people and accept their choice,” it said in a statement after the first-round vote, which drew an official turnout of 62 percent.

“Those who weren’t successful ... should work hard to serve people to win their support next time,” the Brotherhood added.
If there is a next time...
The Brotherhood’s political opponents say it seeks to impose Shariah law on a country that has a large Christian minority and depends on welcoming Western tourists. The movement insists it will pursue a moderate agenda if it wins power and do nothing to damage the tourist industry.

Liberal parties lacking the Islamists’ grassroots base were trying to avert a landslide in run-off votes set for Monday and in two further rounds of an election staggered over six weeks.

The Egyptian Bloc, an alliance of liberal groups, ran large advertisements in newspapers to appeal for more support. “Don’t soften your support for the civil, moderate current to achieve a balanced parliament that represents the Egyptian people, and do not give up your rights,” the message read.

With the Brotherhood and its ultra-conservative Salafi rivals apparently set for a majority in the assembly, newspapers were debating if they would unite to form a dominant bloc.

Nader Bakkar, spokesman for the Salafi Al-Nour Party, told Al-Dustour daily that talk of forming a coalition with the Brotherhood was premature and the results of the second and third rounds would determine the possibilities.

“All the indications show that the Muslim Brotherhood does not want to inaugurate an alliance with Islamic forces, but rather to conclude a coalition with liberal and secularist forces during the coming parliament,” Asem Abdel-Maged, spokesman for Al-Gama’a Al-Islamiya, a Salafi group not aligned closely with Al-Nour, told Al-Dustour.

Organizers of last week’s vote acknowledged several violations but said they did not affect the results. Army generals now wield ultimate power, but the popularly elected new assembly is likely to assert itself.

Mass street protests against the army in Cairo and other cities ahead of the vote already forced the generals to concede a faster transfer of power to an elected president. They also led the government to resign, jolting the army’s efforts to bring stability to a country in the throes of an economic crisis and bouts of sectarian and labor unrest.

The new prime minister chosen by the army, Kamal Al-Ganzouri, had promised to have his full cabinet lined up by Saturday but the official news agency MENA said he was now having a rethink. Several names of new ministers filtered into local media over the weekend, and state television listed about a dozen ministers from the outgoing cabinet who would remain.

Political groups opposed keeping three of those ministers in place, including Planning and International Cooperation Minister Faiza Abu el-Naga and Electricity and Energy Minister Hassan Younes, state-owned newspaper Al-Ahram reported.

Adding to the confusion, the Finance Ministry issued a statement on Saturday quoting Mumtaz Al-Saeed as the new minister even before Ganzouri’s cabinet has been unveiled. It quoted el-Saeed, who was an adviser to outgoing Finance Minister Hazem el-Beblawi, as saying Egypt was not ready for a decision on possible help from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to cover a ballooning budget deficit.

Beblawi said last month that Egypt would request formal negotiations with the IMF.
Link



Warning: Undefined property: stdClass::$T in /data/rantburg.com/www/rantburg/pgrecentorg.php on line 132
-8 More