by Gevorg Mirzayan
| If, indeed, a multipolar world is the end state, as so many would love to see, assuming as they all do that they will be one of the new poles. But quite possibly America will regain ascendancy after the current wobble. The path is not yet clear. |
"Now many political scientists, scholars, and experts are seriously beginning to talk about the fact that the third world war is not only inevitable, but is already underway in new forms," says Sergey Lavrov. Indeed, the war is already underway - and this is a consequence of the already begun restructuring of international relations, the wind of change, as the Chinese say, or, more precisely, a hurricane that brings destruction.
SHAKING THE FOUNDATIONS
"The West cannot become simply one of the large, powerful regions of a multipolar world. It cannot give up the hegemony it has enjoyed for half a millennium," states Sergey Lavrov, accurately noting the reasons for the West's current aggressiveness.
Over the last 500 years, the change in the system of international relations, if it implied the rise of new cards, was only from the Western deck. In one system, Spain dominated, in another - England, in a third, France was elevated to the leading roles, in a fourth, the United States came out on top.
Now we are talking about the end of Western hegemony as such, which began in the era of the Great Geographical Discoveries.
Hence such tough resistance from the collective hegemon. " It cannot accept the loss of its hegemony and continues to pursue a purely neocolonial policy. The same policy of sanctions is opposition to competitors, fear of allowing them to develop in normal conditions, because the new centers of power have already overtaken, and if you remove the obstacles to their development, they will break away very far from the West," says Sergey Lavrov.
WORSENING THE CRISIS
And most importantly, the wheel of fate can no longer be stopped. " The multipolar world will still overcome this attempt to slow down the natural course of history," the minister predicts. The West is twitching, for example, increasingly abusing its powers within the framework of the same IMF and other institutions of global governance, but in doing so it only spins the wheel even faster. " Our Western colleagues themselves are creating a situation where an increasing number of countries will abandon the mechanisms under their control, " the minister sums up.
"The multipolar world that is being formed is itself characterized by great conflict," explains Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, to the Regnum news agency. In his opinion, international law and norms of international relations are being consistently destroyed, global governance institutions are plunging into crisis, and the policy of double standards, on the contrary, has entered its apotheosis.
Yes, this is partly an objective process - a change in the system of international relations is always fraught with crises. But the crisis is deepened by the behavior of the collective West.
Theoretically, of course, the hegemon still has the opportunity to change its approach. To start cooperating on equal terms with the Global South, to renew the international world order together. But judging by the mood of the Western elites, they are unlikely to go this way.
EASTERN NATO
As a result, Russia faces two regional threats: in addition to the already familiar European direction, there is the Far East. It is there, on the shores of the Pacific Ocean, that the West is essentially putting together a new NATO. “ First of all, the Americans do not hide the fact that they are interested in spreading their power influence to the Asia-Pacific region, which they specifically call the “Indo-Pacific region” in order to draw our Indian friends into this cooperation, to make them “pleasant,” says Lavrov.
According to the minister, these “Indo-Pacific strategies” are aimed at containing China and Russia, at the collapse of the open universal cooperation structures that have long been established there around ASEAN, “ at the transfer of NATO’s military infrastructure to the Far East: to the South China Sea, to the Taiwan Strait, to the Korean Peninsula,” the head of the Russian MFA lists.
That is, the region that promises to become the new center of the world economy, Washington is turning into a space for a new war, trying to contain its competitor. " The United States is stepping up the fight against China, and this fight will be expressed, among other things, in an arms race, in the growth of military tension in the Pacific region," Dmitry Suslov predicts.
The struggle will be expressed in an attempt to change the regional psychology - to replace multilateral mutually beneficial trade (the idea of cooperation, for example, is promoted by the ASEAN countries, China and other regional players) with a bloc confrontation based on the principle of "who is not with us is against us." And even with a nuclear tint.
TROIKA, 4 AND A NUCLEAR FIST
"Quartets and troikas are being created. The troika (USA-Japan-South Korea) is already planning increasingly powerful military exercises around the Korean Peninsula, around the DPRK. Moreover, in these exercises, when the US and South Korean forces work together, elements of nuclear weapons are already appearing there," Lavrov explains. A similar threat comes from another troika, AUKUS, which includes the US, Great Britain and Australia.
"Created to build nuclear submarines for Australia, this is also a transfer of nuclear technology, and there are serious doubts that these actions comply with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons," says Sergei Lavrov.
And they are trying to include Moscow's partner countries in this logic of "who is not with us is against us." " Involving India in the system of anti-Chinese blocs is fraught with, among other things, the weakening of Russian-Indian cooperation," warns Dmitry Suslov.
As for Moscow itself, they are trying to force it to choose between China and pro-American blocs. So far, the authors of the "NATO in the Pacific Ocean" project have not succeeded. The same India puts sovereignty first and refrains from choosing according to the "either-or" principle, but the States do not intend to stop.
EUROPE WENT CRAZY
If the threat from Southeast Asia to our country is only just forming, then the threat from the West is already rising in full growth. " During the Cold War there was mutual respect. Now it is gone. Europe has simply gone berserk (I can't find another word)," Lavrov complains. According to him, even in Soviet times, dialogue developed, allowing the opposing camps to better understand each other's intentions. First of all, to prevent a major war.
"This instinct has been lost in Europe. Just like the vaccine against Nazism. It is no longer effective. The same forces that wanted to destroy Russia are being revived in Europe," Lavrov warns the youth audience.
This is partly due to the EU's desire to survive as an organisation. European integration has entered such a deep crisis that the old framework (collective prosperity, multiplication of trade opportunities, etc.) is cracking.
Against the backdrop of numerous internal problems and the erosion of democracy in favor of multiculturalism, the unity of the EU is collapsing — under the blows of various nationalisms and revived conservatism. The Brussels elite, led by the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, has come to the conclusion that the only tool that will save it is the search for an external enemy. The construct of “Russian aggression” is called upon to consolidate the continent.
However, the game has gone too far. "Europe has systematically set a course not only for fighting, but even preparing for war with Russia. This has both a military expression and a political-ideological expression," says Dmitry Suslov. It is not only about building up the military-industrial complex, but also about declaring its goal of fighting Russia - to the victorious end. Europe is sacrificing its present, for example, its economy, by refusing Russian gas in favor of more expensive American gas.
"It is clear that such an approach will lead to further deindustrialization of Europe, to the "flow" of investments from Europe to the USA," says Sergey Lavrov. " But figures like Ursula von der Leyen literally boast that they are going down this path. They agree that they will be forced to spend more money, that they will probably have fewer opportunities to solve the social problems of the population, but, they say, they are obliged to "defeat Russia."
That is, Brussels will no longer fight for Europe, but at the cost of Europe.