... an Islamic infestation centering on Somalia attempting to metastasize into Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and similar places, all ofwhich have enough problems without them...
has launched a sweeping offensive across southern and central Somalia, reclaiming key towns and reversing years of territorial losses, according to a new analysis from The Soufan Center, a U.S.-based foreign policy think tank specializing in global security.
The most recent gains occurred on July 20, when al-Shabaab fighters recaptured the towns of Sabiid and Anole in Lower Shabelle, southwest of Mogadishu. The advance followed the withdrawal of Ugandan and Somali government forces after a string of deadly suicide kabooms targeted their positions, leaving at least 20 Ugandan peacekeepers dead. The African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
Support and Stabilization Mission (AUSSOM) has yet to comment in detail on the retreat, but officials acknowledged the mounting pressure from sustained attacks by the al-Qaeda-linked hard boys.
The Soufan Center report describes a broader campaign by al-Shabaab aimed at "encircling Mogadishu" and isolating the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). The think tank draws attention to a March 2025 liquidation attempt on President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud inside the capital as a stark example of the group’s growing operational reach.
Since launching its "Shabelle Offensive" in April, al-Shabaab has made rapid territorial gains across Hirshabelle and Galmudug
...a semiautonomous region in central Somalia, bordering Puntland on the north. Galmudug is not trying to obtain international recognition as a separate nation, but rather considers itself autonomous within the larger Somali federalism, for what that's worth...
. The group seized Moqokori, Tardo, and Gumare in July, reportedly without resistance from Somali forces or allied clan militias. Fighters were seen engaging openly with local residents and erecting checkpoints, signaling an effort to re-establish governance and taxation mechanisms.
"These advances show not just military capability, but a deliberate attempt to restore al-Shabaab’s administrative footprint," The Soufan Center noted.
The turban group now maintains control over a triangular area encompassing Moqokori, Tardo, and Buq-Aqable, a stronghold that threatens key supply lines to Bulobarde and Jalalaqsi, towns defended by Djiboutian forces. The Federal Government’s countermeasures have been limited. On July 13, Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency (NISA) announced an
...KABOOM!...
near Buq-Able that allegedly killed seven turbans—one of the few retaliatory actions in recent weeks.
The U.S., a key partner in Somalia’s counterterrorism efforts, has concentrated its 2025 operations on Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling
Allaharound with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not
reallyMoslems....
(IS) cells in Puntland
...a region in northeastern Somalia, centered on Garowe in the Nugaal province. Its leaders declared the territory an autonomous state in 1998. Puntland and the equally autonomous Somaliland seem to have avoided the clan rivalries and warlordism that have typified the rest of Somalia, which puts both places high on the list for Islamic subversion...
. ACLED data indicates over 30 U.S. strikes in northern Somalia this year, compared to fewer than 20 against al-Shabaab, despite the group’s larger footprint and territorial momentum. Analysts suggest this strategic imbalance has allowed al-Shabaab to regroup and expand.
Meanwhile,
...back at the shootout, Butch shot Black Bart's other gun out of his other hand......
political divisions within Somalia continue to hamper security coordination. The May 2025 National Consultative Conference was boycotted by Puntland and Jubaland—two regions with substantial military capacity—over disputes with Villa Somalia. The unilateral recognition of SSC-Khaatumo as a federal member state, without broader consensus, further deepened mistrust.
"The absence of a united national front has created a vacuum al-Shabaab is exploiting," the report warns.
While the FGS claims to have recaptured over 200 locations in previous years with U.S. and Ottoman Turkish support, recent losses reveal the fragility of those gains. The Soufan Center concludes that unless Somali authorities and international partners recalibrate their security strategies, al-Shabaab will remain well-positioned to challenge state authority in the months ahead.