by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] Iran's Supreme National Security Council and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) recently announced that they had received classified documents about Israeli nuclear facilities and programs.
The Iranians are threatening to make the data they have obtained public in the near future, thereby putting an end to the concept of “strategic ambiguity” (“Amimut”), within the framework of which Tel Aviv neither confirmed nor denied the existence of nuclear weapons.
However, Tehran does not consider it shameful to use the dossier to simultaneously solve several other tactical tasks related to the nuclear sector, but affecting Israel only indirectly.
STRONG RESONANCE
Despite the fact that Iran is in no hurry to fully verify the authenticity of the information, it does not particularly hide the approximate content of its "trophies". Thus, the documents received by the Iranians, in addition to general information about the state and development trends of the Israeli nuclear sector, allegedly contain information about communications with American and European specialized institutions, detailed layouts on the latest contracts.
In addition, the “dossier” lifts the curtain on the military segment of the nuclear program – it explains the approximate number of warheads in the Israeli arsenal and their typology, contains information on the state of the missile program, and the names of key scientists and intermediaries.
The IRGC also boasts of “additional materials” — video recordings from surveillance cameras at strategic Israeli sites totaling tens of thousands of hours, passwords to “closed digital control networks,” and information about secret headquarters of Israeli intelligence agencies in various Middle Eastern countries. All of these were obtained in parallel with the main dossier.
Iran's Minister of Intelligence and National Security Ismail Khatib, who is now leading the information campaign surrounding the leaks, has described the operation as a success.
The data obtained, according to him, was enough to target all key objects on Israeli territory and, in the event of a sudden escalation, to launch a “surgical strike” on the arsenals of the Jewish state.
The head of Iranian intelligence never misses a chance to make fun of the incompetence of his Israeli counterparts in the special services. While they were chasing "planted" agents (by which, apparently, they meant the IRGC-recruited chemical engineer Doron Bokobza and retiree Eduard Yusupov ), the Iranian career intelligence officers remained in the shadows and were able to finish what they started without significant interference.
In terms of resonance, the current scandal may surpass the leaks from the dossier of Mordechai Vanunu, the Israeli defector who in 1986 revealed to journalists information about Israel's nuclear program and its military component.
HINTS "FROM AROUND THE CORNER"
The Iranians are already trying to put some excerpts from the secret documents they received into operation. For example, Tehran has publicly thrown down the gauntlet to the IAEA, accusing its inspectors of secretly working for the Israelis for many years.
Citing the same secret dossier, Iranian intelligence agencies claim that the agency had been secretly leaking inspection reports to the Israelis for several years, as well as confidential information received from Iranian officials - primarily the identification data of key scientists working in the nuclear sector.
They, in turn, became targets of Israeli intelligence. We are talking about at least ten nuclear scientists, including Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who was killed in 2020 and is considered the "father" of the modern Iranian nuclear program.
With such “hints from around the corner,” in the opinion of the Iranian side, the IAEA has seriously discredited itself as an international organization and lost its status as an “arbitrator” in regional relations in the sphere of peaceful nuclear energy, turning into an instrument of influence in the hands of Tel Aviv.
However, the IAEA has so far ignored Tehran's criticism. The agency continues to adhere to the peacemaker's line: it advocates for the earliest possible revival of the "nuclear deal" and demands guarantees from the Iranian side that its nuclear program is exclusively peaceful in nature.
PLAYING ON NERVES
Despite the fact that several weeks have passed since the main stage of the operation (according to the Iranians themselves), Tehran is in no hurry to make the information it has received publicly available.
Although interest in the dossier, which has already received the informal name “Anti-Amimut” in professional circles, is actively fueled by both current politicians and influential “retirees”.
Official Tehran, apparently, is trying to scare its opponents and make them blurt out unexpected details on their nerves. In addition, with the help of the "nuclear bluff" the Iranians also expect to strengthen their positions in the next rounds of negotiations with the US - scheduled for June 12 and 15, respectively.
In a certain sense, this even succeeded: after information about hypothetical leaks from Israel became public knowledge in the West, US President Donald Trump unexpectedly called on Israel to negotiate with Iran on nuclear security guarantees. Although before this, the White House preferred to keep Tel Aviv on the periphery of interaction on the “nuclear deal”.
On the other hand, the tactics of intimidation and bluffing seem to work intermittently. In Israel, the topic of “nuclear leaks” is not particularly commented on – as the concept of uncertainty suggests. The Mossad leadership is also in place, although Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is in conflict with the top of the national intelligence services, would hardly miss the opportunity to dismiss an opponent under a good pretext.
It is unlikely that the current leak will put an end to Israel's concept of "strategic ambiguity."
Although Tel Aviv will have to seriously restructure its approach to protecting its nuclear secrets. Just as it did after the scandal with the "Vanunu dossier" in the second half of the 1980s. In this sense, one can say that "Amimut" is simply entering a new circle.
True, after the current scandal, the "hot heads" in Tel Aviv will cool down for a while. At least the temptation to run into trouble and try to launch a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities will definitely diminish.