by Leonid Savin
[REGNUM] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has broken the curtain of silence and finally spoken out about the sharp escalation of the situation in Syria. And his words can be considered sensational without exaggeration.
"Idlib, Hama, Homs and the goal, of course, is Damascus. The opposition march in Syria continues. We hope that it will be without upheavals and disasters," the Turkish leader essentially revealed the militants' plans to seize the Syrian capital. Erdogan then complained that attempts to reach an agreement "in a good way" were fruitless: "We appealed to Assad with a call to jointly determine the future of Syria. Unfortunately, this call was not answered positively."
| Not just a tin ear, but a lead one. |
| He thought the Kurds annoying. The Syrians are an entirely different kettle of piranhas — back when the Ottoman empire was a thing and not just a Playboy centerfold, the sultan’s army had to regularly decimate their Arab population just to keep their troublesomeness down to a dull roar. Hama Rules, if your men have the will. |
In open and behind-the-scenes conversations, it was felt that some events were coming, in particular, the idea was expressed that the “Astana process” for the Syrian settlement had been exhausted and Russia should understand Turkey’s interests in determining the type of political unity in Syria. However, the matter does not end with the relations between Russia, Syria and Turkey.
In Turkey, current political processes are viewed through the prism of interconnected events not only in Syria, but also in Libya, Ukraine, and Nagorno-Karabakh, which came under the control of Azerbaijan. The Islamist militants have also been seen wearing symbols of “Eastern Turkestan” and “Grey Wolves,” which indicates at least the nominal presence of supporters of the pan-Turkic project in their ranks.
| That’s what Turkey is paying them for. Statistically at least a few should believe in it. |
| It will be on January 20th, my dears. But y’all carry on roistering about the landscape while still you can. |
It is likely that the current round of escalation represents such a rationalization (from the Turkish point of view) due to the status quo in the Turkey-Iraq-Syria triangle. But if Ankara has managed to achieve some progress with the Iraqi leadership (despite the occupation of part of Northern Iraq by Turkish troops and regular bombing of Kurdish settlements),
| …(a pungent point)… |
The Syrian issue is now taking on existential features for Ankara. This is due, firstly, to the large number of Syrian refugees in Turkey, who, given the current inflation, are becoming a kind of scapegoat. It is easiest to declare them the cause of internal problems, of which Ankara has many. Secondly, the Kurdish paramilitary formations are a real pain in the neck for the Turks. Thirdly, due to previously established contacts with the Syrian opposition, Turkey is counting on a political agreement, but there is still no such agreement.
At the same time, Turkey understands that the accumulating issues are creating contradictions within the country, and their resolution requires the active participation of Syria, Iran, Russia, and the United States.
With Donald Trump elected as the new US president, Ankara will have to balance hard, as it is not yet clear what strategy Washington will choose.
| I feel seen, as the kids say nowadays. |
Turkey would probably be willing to leave Syria if there were no threats coming from there. But as long as there are militant Kurdish groups there, there is no such certainty. The Kurds, for their part, are not ready to disarm, especially given their experience of confronting ISIS* in the past.
The Kurdish YPG forces are active in Syria, and like the Kurdistan Workers' Party, Turkey considers them a terrorist organization. But while the US used to openly support and arm the YPG, this is no longer the case. Moreover, the Kurdish enclaves in northern Syria are now effectively surrounded by the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham* group.
From this we can conclude that Turkey has reached some kind of agreement with the US on non-interference in the conflict.
| Not the U.S. — if such a decision was made it could be no more than the current ad hoc cabal in Washington making decisions on various issues as various subgroups turn their attention this way and that… for the next few weeks. None of their decisions can be binding, as they have no legal authority to decide for the nation. |
| I seem to recall that HTS has talked about having rehearsed for a yeqr for this… |
And if initially the talk was about pushing Syria, as well as Russia and Iran, to a speedy resolution of the political crisis, including defining the political role of the opposition and the return of several million refugees, which was planned to be agreed upon at the next round of meetings in the “Astana format” in Qatar, then the sudden success of the militants forced Erdogan to come out of the shadows.
The timing is ideal, given Russia's involvement in the SVO in Ukraine, as well as a certain pause in Iran's activity in the region, caused by both the death of an IRGC representative in Syria and the Hezbollah leadership in Lebanon.
Given how unfavorable the situation is for the Syrian government, even if the YPG Kurds decide to support it in repelling the militants' advance, more decisive action by Turkey could follow. Seeing the Kurds' weakness, Ankara could decide to finish them off once and for all, first in Rojava (in northern Syria), and then moving on to methodically destroying other structures in Iraq and Turkey itself.
The Kurdish issue is indeed extremely important for the current Turkish leadership. It is no coincidence that Erdogan's ally and leader of the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) Devlet Bahceli in October called on the founder of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, Abdullah Ocalan, who has been sentenced to life imprisonment, to address parliament and announce the dissolution of the PKK. Given that parliament is a particularly sacred place for Turks, the proposal to allow a person convicted of terrorism to sit there clearly demonstrates concern about a possible Kurdish mobilization in the future. In addition, the demographic situation should be taken into account, since the Kurds have many more children than the Turks.
| Which is why President Erdogan has been busily arranging as many Kurdish deaths as possible, both in Turkey and in the Kurdish territories immediately beyond Turkey’s borders. |
| What’s to be said? The man has dreams. |
| And now Russian forces are bugging out for the same reason. |