By Malek Dudakov
[REGNUM] The Western public is vigorously discussing radical scenarios for the development of the presidential race in the United States. The British and European tabloids are especially persistent, actively throwing out “insiders” about the impending replacement of players in the American political field.
We are, of course, talking about Donald Trump and Joe Biden, the two main contenders for the US presidency. Both candidates are not ideal, but the inertia of American politics is such that they will compete for the title of winner of the presidential election on November 5.
The last few weeks have been really tough for Biden. His aging problems only get worse over time. The whole world witnessed firsthand the consequences of the US president's dementia at the G7 summit in Italy, where he wandered confused in the presence of other leaders.
Biden was simply not allowed to attend the “peace summit” in Switzerland, otherwise he would have been embarrassed there too. Instead, the president was dragged to a fundraiser in Los Angeles, where Barack Obama literally had to walk him by the hand across the stage.
There are debates ahead, in which Biden will have to somehow withstand an hour and a half of bickering with Trump, although the most favorable conditions have been created for the current president. The debate will take place on CNN with a Democratic-sympathizing host. Biden will probably be pumped full of powerful stimulant drugs, however, they have a side effect - he becomes too aggressive.
At the same time, Trump demands that he undergo a doping test, which already brings back memories of the 2019 elections in Ukraine, when Vladimir Zelensky demanded the same from Petro Poroshenko.
Democrats have been discussing the possibility of replacing Biden behind the scenes for a very long time.
The original plan was to make him a one-term president, and nominate a successor from the team in 2024, like Kamala Harris or Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. But both of them were never able to prove themselves - their ratings are even lower than Biden’s. This was one of the reasons why the incumbent president decided to seek re-election for a second term in January 2023.
Political tradition also played a role: almost all presidents in US history exercised their right to seek a second term. The last president to serve four years and then voluntarily resign was James Buchanan 160 years ago. And this happened on the very eve of the American Civil War, which he could not prevent.
In addition, Biden generally satisfied all the main clans within the Democratic Party. His team is full of henchmen of Obama or Hillary Clinton, say, the same national security adviser Jake Sullivan or Kamala Harris.
And given the obvious weakness of the president, these clans could calmly resolve their issues behind his back. Therefore, it is not for nothing that Biden’s tenure is called Obama’s third term.
But now the Democratic clans are really worried, because Biden may be so weak that he will simply lose to Trump. However, they woke up too late.
It was possible to persuade Biden not to seek a second term immediately after the midterm elections to Congress in November 2022. But the Democrats performed relatively well at them, and the reason for replacing their president was not ripe.
Since then, all stages of the Democratic Party primaries have passed. Biden had technical opponents, but they did not show much success: 14 million Democrats voted for the president - 87% of all participants in the primaries. Some demonstratively voted against everyone, disagreeing with Biden’s policies, especially in the context of supporting Israel.
Overall, however, Joe Biden received carte blanche from his voters. There is a party congress ahead in August, at which some sensation-seekers expect a replacement candidate.
REPLACEMENT IS NOT BENEFICIAL FOR DEMOCRATS
But it’s worth keeping in mind that it won’t be possible to pull this off beautifully and legally. Even if Biden himself calls for voting for someone else, like California Governor Gavin Newsom or Michelle Obama.
The electorate of the Democratic Party, which already cannot stand its party leadership, will ask a simple question - why vote for someone appointed from above without any vote?
However, there were similar precedents in US history, especially in the 19th or early 20th centuries. The last time this happened was at the Democratic Party convention in 1952.
Then for a long time they could not figure out the winner of the primaries, and in the end they appointed Governor of Illinois Adlai Stevenson, who was the chairman of the convention and did not even participate in the primaries. True, he lost the elections.
Well, American politics has changed a lot since then. Now the appointment of a candidate without any internal party voting, although technically possible, will immediately be met with hostility. And this will simply bury the Democrats in the elections. Not to mention the fact that the candidates proposed as potential replacements for Biden cannot be called very strong.
Michelle Obama has really good ratings. But she herself does not want to go into politics - she is quite happy with the role of “American mommy”. In addition, the population perceives Michelle precisely as a celebrity, and not as a politician. As soon as she becomes a candidate, her ratings will immediately fall.
Things are not much better for Gavin Newsom, especially given the deplorable situation with crime and drug addiction in California.
The lack of really strong candidates among the Democrats was also one of the reasons why Biden was not replaced by any of them.
Therefore, the replacement of the current president’s candidacy at the congress should be expected only under one condition - if he himself physically does not make it and simply dies or ends up in a coma. In all other cases, there will be no sensations at the convention, and Biden will be routinely nominated as a candidate.
Of course, voters present a whole bunch of complaints to the president because of existing problems - low ratings, unresolved foreign policy and domestic crises, dementia... But his forced replacement will make the situation for the Democrats even worse.
TRUMP DEMANDS REFORMS
The picture is similar for Republicans. Trump comfortably won the primaries almost everywhere except Vermont and the District of Columbia, receiving 17 million votes. He continues to outperform Biden in ratings.
At the same time, he is under pressure from legal problems: on July 11, four days before the convention, Trump will be given a guilty verdict. This could be a prison sentence, which is unlikely, or probation - a suspended sentence, or a fine.
In any case, Trump will immediately file an appeal and try to fight back at a higher authority. In the meantime, the court and the case will demand that the verdict not come into force.
Such problems are unlikely to greatly hinder Trump at the party convention: he is also nominated quite routinely. Moreover, unlike the Democrats and their clans, there is no one in the Republican camp who could challenge such a strong candidate.
Even the chairman of the July Republican Convention will be Lara Trump, the ex-president’s daughter-in-law and the wife of his son Eric Trump Sr. has practically turned the Republican Party into his family contract.
Now he is busy consolidating around himself the Republican faction in Congress and the Senate, which are required to prepare in advance to implement a large reform program if Donald Trump wins the election.
June electoral models put his chances of winning the election at 56-66% as he outperforms Biden in key swing states. So talk about Trump’s return and the need to replace Biden will continue at least until August.
But you shouldn't take them seriously. Both candidates were caught in the whirlpool of the election race, from which they will no longer escape.