#4 Abbas has only referred to a âthird partyâ he believes is opposed to his peacemaking with Israel. âThere may be other parties who want to destabilise the situation,â
the third party he's referring to is Syria, which he obviously lacks the wherewhithal to do anything about. Note the attack was claimed by Islamic Jihad officials in DAMASCUS and disowned by IJ in Gaza. Israel will, naturally, attempt to press (at least in public) Abbas to crackdown on IJ Gaza, while keeping the main focus on Syria. Right now Dhalan is still consolidating power on the ground, including some of the stuff weve seen and commented on already - taking local power from Moussa Arafat, etc. IM sure Dahlan wants to finish that before taking on IJ. And Im sure the Israelis now that, in intimate detail. Ergo most pressure on Abbas will be for public consumption only - real target for Israel is IJ -Damascus, and Syria generally.
This should also be seen in context of Syria apparent handing over of Iraqi insurgent leaders, and of growing protests in Beirut. NOT clear how much coordination between US, Israel, Iraqi govt, and Lebanese opposition, or agreement on goals. Syria will try to selectively make concessions, split the coalition against it. Also there may be splits within the Syrian govt - some may lash out (supporting a bombing in Tel Aviv) to make a peaceful resolution more difficult. |