Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Leonid Tsukanov
[Regnum] The post-mortem analysis of the failed rebellion in Niger continues. Central authorities are blaming foreign powers (primarily France) and promising retaliation. Against this backdrop, the personnel changes that have occurred in the highest echelons of power in the African country seem unsurprising.
However, a closer look at the new appointees reveals that government leader Abdurrahmane Chiani has positioned the new candidates in such a way that his opponents in European capitals will interpret the signal unambiguously.
MACRON COMMANDED, THE SHEIKHS PAID
Although Niger's leadership has yet to identify the rebellion's leaders, more than two weeks after its suppression, the names of external sponsors were announced almost immediately. And without mincing words.
According to Soumane Boubacar, Minister of State for the President and official government spokesman, French President Emmanuel Macron personally stood behind the plotters. According to Boubacar, Macron himself proposed the general framework for the operation to his General Staff, which would culminate in Paris's triumphant return to Niger and regain control of the uranium deposits that previously fueled the Fifth Republic's nuclear power plants.
Macron allegedly justified his decision by saying that Niger's central government had been weakened by internal strife, and that some of the army's elites were allegedly nostalgic about the pro-French regime.
Even after the Chief of the General Staff, Fabien Mandon, and the Commander-in-Chief of the Land Forces, Jacques de Montgrot, who, due to their professional background, had a good understanding of the state of affairs in Africa and real support from Paris, spoke out against the adventure, the operation was still given the green light.
Moreover, as the investigation established, the rank-and-file participants in the conspiracy were not financed by the French budget. It is noted that a significant portion of the transactions conducted by the arrested military personnel on the eve of the mutiny were routed from Persian Gulf countries.
The money is said to have come from accounts linked to the Emirati al-Nahyan family's financial empire and Arab shell companies run by confidants of UAE intelligence chief Tahnoun al-Nahyan.
CALLS DURING A FIGHT
The statements of Niger's public figures also fit well with the testimony of soldiers from the 1st Parachute Battalion—the unit that bore the brunt of the rebel attacks and prevented them from taking control of key facilities in the capital.
Officers from the unit that remained loyal have become frequent guests on local airwaves, vying with each other to tell how, right during the siege, their phones were bombarded with calls from supporters of President Mohamed Bazoum, who was ousted in 2023 (including his advisor and confidant Hamid Amadou N'gadé ), urging the paratroopers to switch sides and receive amnesty.
According to statements circulating in the Nigerien press, N'gadé acted as a sort of collective voice for the Economic Community of West African States, declaring that the group "does not want much bloodshed" and is prepared to intervene jointly with the French to end the fighting. And then, to facilitate a peaceful return of power from Chiani to Bazoum.
In part, such reports are likely aimed at a domestic audience, but it is telling that, with the onset of the coup, the President of Benin did indeed suddenly interrupt his trip abroad and return to the country to establish a crisis center—even though the rebels' actions did not pose a direct threat to the security of his country at that time, and the main battles were taking place far from the border.
Furthermore, several days before the crisis, radio traffic between Benin and Côte d'Ivoire, another regional ally of Paris, increased sharply. French troops stationed in these countries were put on high alert even before the first shots were fired near the Nigerien capital, Niamey.
This indicates that even if France was not directly involved in preparing the coup, it was ready to reap its benefits immediately. Like the UAE, for whom the return of the Bazoum regime would have opened up excellent prospects for developing Niger's gold and uranium markets, as well as strengthening its military and political influence in the Sahel and creating an additional foothold for bolstering loyalists in Libya.
SIGNALS THROUGH COMMANDERS
Having barely recovered from the aftermath of the mutiny, Ciani carried out a series of personnel changes. Specifically, he removed Major General Moussa Salau Barma, one of the architects of the 2023 anti-French coup, from his post as Chief of the General Staff and replaced him with Brigadier General Maman Sani Kiau.
The latter has extensive combat experience, including commanding special forces in the Tillabéri and Diffé regions, where a significant portion of the rebels originated. He is considered one of the most respected senior commanders. This was likely Niamey's official attempt to demonstrate that it still listens to and relies on the army.
The chiefs of staff of the ground forces and air force also changed. The former commanders and superiors—mostly from Barma's inner circle—followed their patron into retirement.
Interestingly, after the military chain of command shakeup, Barma received no "comfort" position, even in the civilian sector, and disappeared completely from the public agenda, which is unusual for a politician of his caliber. It's possible that the Chiani government held him personally responsible for the rebel breakthrough.
Moreover, the new commander also serves as a living symbol of resistance to Western military influence. It was Kiau, as a negotiator for the transitional government in 2023, who worked with the French and American contingents, forcing them to expedite their withdrawal from Niger.
Considering that there are still military missions from EU countries on the territory of the republic (in particular, the Italian one, stationed at “Air Base 101,” but which was effectively inactive during the recent crisis), such an appointment should serve as a signal for them.
The newly appointed military commanders share another common trait: they have all worked closely with the Russian Ministry of Defense's Africa Corps (including in combat) and advocate for expanded military-political coordination with Russia.
And herein lies another message that the African country is conveying externally: it is placing a decisive bet on Russian assistance to strengthen its sovereignty, and regards any European interference in its affairs as hostile.
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