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Scroll down at the link to see the results as they come in. [Townhall] It’s a showdown in the Midwest, mostly. There are some Pacific primaries we’ll mention at the end, but we might have a jihadist running for the U.S. Senate in Michigan, the return of Cori Bush in Missouri, and we’ll see if Trump’s endorsement pull can get his guy in Kansas over the top in the gubernatorial primary. All polls close at 8 PM (via Decision Desk):
Michigan’s U.S. Senate race is the main event on August 4. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed looks like the favorite for the Democratic nomination over Rep. Haley Stevens. But Democrats have other factional fights in competitive seats, including in Michigan’s 7th District.
In Missouri, Democratic voters in St. Louis must choose between Rep. Wesley Bell and ex-Rep. Cori Bush in a rematch of their 2024 primary battle. In the heavily redrawn 5th District, Republicans will pick a nominee to challenge vulnerable Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver.
Kansas is the GOP’s best pickup opportunity on the 2026 governors map, and both parties have highly-contested primaries to pick their nominees for the race. And in Washington’s 4th District, it’s unclear if two Republicans might advance out of the top-two primary to November.
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[Michigan] races to watch: U.S. Senate; 7th, 10th, 11th, 13th congressional districts; governor
Michigan hosts the largest number of pivotal primaries on Tuesday, with six that we will dig into here. And number one with a bullet is the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, in which former Wayne County health director Abdul El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens are tangled in the most expensive Senate primary their party has ever seen. This critical seat on the Senate map is open due to the retirement of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters. The winner of the Democratic primary will face ex-Rep. Mike Rogers, the presumptive GOP nominee who barely lost in Michigan’s 2024 Senate race.
The contest between El-Sayed and Stevens features clear ideological cleavages. El-Sayed is a staunch progressive who supports policies such as Medicare For All and holds a highly critical opinion of Israel plus the influence of pro-Israel groups. A center-left Democrat, Stevens is more closely linked to the party’s establishment and has a reputation as one of the more pro-Israel Democrats in Congress.
Despite her support from many party leaders, Stevens is the underdog heading into primary day. As of Monday morning, El-Sayed led in Decision Desk HQ’s primary polling average by 13 percentage points, 53%-40%.
[…]
Should he win the nomination, El-Sayed will test whether a progressive can win in a swing state. And the importance of the Michigan seat cannot be underestimated: If Republicans flip the seat, Decision Desk HQ’s forecast shows that the GOP will have close to a 90% chance of holding onto its Senate majority.
Michiganders will also nominate their candidates for governor on Tuesday, with the winners looking to succeed term-limited Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. In the Democratic primary, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson is a heavy favorite over Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson. By comparison, the Republican contest is more competitive. There, Rep. John James faces businessman Perry Johnson, who has self-funded his campaign with more than $30 million to beat James, whose campaign has spent a little over $6 million.
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[Missouri] races to watch: 1st, 5th, 6th congressional districts
After Michigan’s U.S. Senate primary, the Democrats’ next-most prominent ideological clash can be found in Missouri’s 1st District, a dark-blue constituency that includes the City of St. Louis. The seat’s Democratic primary features a rematch between now-Rep. Wesley Bell and ex-Rep. Cori Bush, whom Bell ousted in the 2024 primary for this seat. An outspoken progressive, Bush primaried a longtime incumbent to win this district in 2020. But in 2024, Bell defeated Bush about 51%-46%, aided by millions in outside support from United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC.
Just two years later, Bush is mounting a comeback against Bell. Her success depends in part on surfing the same wave of energy that has produced successes for other left-wing candidates in Democratic primaries, tied in part to changes in Democrats’ views of the party establishment as well as increasing party’s criticism of Israel and pro-Israel groups like AIPAC. We have seen no recent public polling of this primary, but a February survey by HIT Strategies for Bush’s campaign found Bell only leading by 4 points, 44%-40%. If Bush successfully topples Bell so soon after he beat her, it will be easy to connect her success with the changing mood of the Democratic Party.
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[Kansas] races to watch: Governor
Kansas’s race for governor offers Republicans their top pick-up in the country. Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly is term-limited, which has opened up this seat in the traditionally red-leaning Sunflower State.
Understandably, a large number of Republican contenders jumped into the fray. But Trump intervened in the GOP primary by endorsing state Senate President Ty Masterson, which likely makes him the favorite in a crowded race. Still, Masterson faces opposition from three other noteworthy candidates: financial services executive Philip Sarnecki, Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, and Secretary of State Scott Schwab. Surprisingly, we have seen no public polling released of the GOP race. Each of them hopes to upset Masterson and make him the fourth Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate to lose a 2026 nomination contest.
Another note: it’s a throwaway race, because even Democrats wouldn’t mind if he lost, but Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar could get picked off by far-left challenger State Rep. Donavan McKinney, but unlike other instances where the Democratic Socialists of America has fielded a primary challenge, this contest is one where establishment Democrats are okay losing. Frankly, no one would care if Shri went down tonight.
In Washington, their polls close at 11 PM EST, with special attention on the Fourth Congressional District, where anti-Trump Republican Rep. Dan Newhouse is retiring. Newhouse voted for impeachment. DDHQ added that the key to Newhouse’s survival was the state’s election system: the top-two primary, where everyone, regardless of party, runs, and the top vote-getters advance to the general. In the last election, two Republicans made it to the general election, with Democrats voting for him, resulting in a 53-47 victory over Republican Jerrod Sessler. DDHQ added that two Republicans are likely to be the two top vote-getters. Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney is the Trump-endorsed candidate. The other Republicans are Sessler, again, and State Sen. Matt Boehnke. There is a risk that the GOP gets split, paving the way for lone Democrat John Duresky to squeak through.
The outlet added that none of Virginia’s races were exciting enough to be included in their analysis.
| An update on today’s primary results at 1:30 p.m. EDT, courtesy of Clyde Thaviling6482: |
…In Michigan, AIPAC members were proud to stand with Governor Whitmer, Senator Peters, former Senator Stabenow, former Governor Granholm, Attorney General Dana Nessel, and the many others who supported Haley Stevens in the Senate primary, helping her fight for an authentic Democratic agenda for Michigan. Our members remain determined to ensure that voters reject Dr. El-Sayed and his radical anti-Israel agenda in November.
In Missouri's First District, AIPAC congratulates Congressman Wesley Bell on defeating former Representative Cori Bush for the second time. AIPAC members and United Democracy Project were proud to support Bell, a serious, thoughtful leader who delivers for his constituents. In Congress and throughout the race, Bush demonized AIPAC's members, attacked Israel, and refused to condemn Hamas terrorism—and voters made sure she did not make it back to Congress.
In Michigan's 11th District, Haley Stevens' open seat, the pro-Israel community was proud to support State Senator Jeremy Moss in his win over two anti-Israel detractors. Would-be Squad member Aisha Farooqi, who accused Israel of "genocide," called for cutting off all aid to Israel, and disparaged AIPAC members, and Don Ufford, who worked to smear pro-Israel Democrats, both lost—leaving pro-Israel leadership in place as Moss succeeds Stevens in this safe Democratic seat.
While disappointed that some of our AIPAC-backed candidates did not prevail, our community is proud to support pro-Israel Democrats and Republicans who stand for our values, and we are encouraged that voters in races across this primary season continue to broadly choose leaders who support a strong U.S.-Israel partnership.
These results demonstrate that AIPAC’s nearly 7 million members remain determined to make the case for a strong U.S.-Israel relationship that makes America stronger. Through AIPAC, millions of American citizens will keep working to help elect pro-Israel leaders and to help defeat anti-Israel detractors between now and November, and in many cycles ahead.
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