Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Leonid Tsukanov
[REGNUM] The four-year ceasefire between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Ansar Allah (Houthi) movement in Yemen has ended. At least the format of coexistence they had previously maintained.
The reason is a sudden escalation. Recently, the Saudi Air Force attacked the airport in Yemen's capital just as a plane carrying Ansar Allah's leadership was approaching for landing. The Houthis responded with strikes on Saudi Arabian territory, and that ended the acute phase of the conflict.
Each side used it to demonstrate its own resolve. And although a major conflict has been avoided for now, the mechanism of confrontation has been set in motion again and could yet come back to haunt Riyadh.
TAKE A FRIGHT
The Saudi airstrike on Sana'a International Airport occurred on July 13, just half an hour before the landing of an Iranian plane carrying high-ranking Houthi leaders. The movement's leadership was returning from a farewell ceremony for the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and was scheduled to appear at a press conference being prepared right on the runway.
All was well: despite the shelling and partial damage to the runway, the pilots managed to land the plane safely. Nevertheless, the incident set a new tone for the press. Ansar Allah treated the incident as nothing less than an assassination attempt.
It is noteworthy that Riyadh attempted to distance itself from responsibility for the incident and present it as an internal factional squabble.
The Saudi Arabian-backed government's military, based in the southern Yemeni city of Aden, said it carried out the attack by firing "several warning shots" from cannon artillery at the airport's runway.
Moreover, they allegedly acted purely out of good intentions, trying to prevent the landing of an Iranian airline, Mahan Air. The plane allegedly entered Yemeni airspace without permission from the central government and "could pose a threat" to local residents.
Interestingly, the Aden government even attempted to warn locals in advance to stay away from the airport. The instructions were published on their official website several hours before the attack.
However, most local residents were unaware of this and were preparing to welcome the delegation arriving from Iran. It was only by a lucky coincidence that the escalation did not result in casualties.
The leadership of the Ansar Allah movement still placed the blame on Riyadh, citing the fact that Saudi fighter jets and, according to some reports, an artillery spotter UAV were spotted in the sky during the incident.
Moreover, the craters on the runway resembled the marks of aircraft ordnance, not those left by cannon artillery strikes. The Yemeni loyalist shells, according to local security officials, fell far beyond the airport grounds.
The Houthi verdict was succinct: Saudi Arabia had declared war and must bear full responsibility for this act.
THREAT FROM THE AIR
The response to the Sana'a shelling followed just a few hours later: Houthi drones and missiles entered Saudi Arabian airspace. Abha Airport in the southwest of the kingdom was hit, with several strikes recorded there.
King Khalid Air Base, located in the same part of the country, was also attacked. However, most of the missiles were reportedly shot down on approach, and the airbase suffered only minor damage from falling debris.
After this, the battle shifted to propaganda. Ansar Allah's official media published a video titled "There Will Be a Response," listing targets for future attacks in case the Saudis didn't change their minds.
The "punitive list" includes almost all major oil depots and associated refineries, the port of Ras Tanura (a key operating point for the oil and gas conglomerate Saudi Aramco), the King Abdullah Port in Rabigh (the largest and newest deep-water port in the kingdom), and the Islamic Port of Jeddah (a significant trade and logistics hub in the Red Sea).
Furthermore, the Houthis have promised to attack the airports in Jeddah, Riyadh, and Dammam—Saudi Arabia's three largest airports. Thus, a hypothetical "retaliatory strike" would not only damage oil production but also seriously hinder international trade, affecting the well-being of the House of Saud.
Notably, unlike Iran, which sought to attack primarily American targets in the Gulf states, the Houthis targeted exclusively the kingdom's infrastructure, hinting that Riyadh would bear direct responsibility for the ill-considered attack.
Saudi Arabia hasn't yet responded to this public attack, but it has clearly drawn its own conclusions. At least, this is suggested by the sharp increase in Saudi troop activity near the critical infrastructure facilities mentioned by the Houthis, including the concentration of missile defense systems closer to port areas.
HIDDEN MOTIVES
At first glance, the Saudi airstrike on Sana'a seemed to have no strategic value—the Ansar Allah officials returning from Tehran were traveling on a civilian plane and were not carrying any prohibited cargo. And they had not previously provoked Saudi Arabia into launching an attack with any public statements.
And the cost of the operational error was too high. The kingdom's air force attacked a civilian airstrip—and at a time when it was occupied by a large number of onlookers and journalists (including representatives of foreign media). Hitting civilians could easily have damaged Riyadh's image not only in Yemen but throughout the Arab world as a whole.
Nevertheless, the kingdom decided it needed to rein in Iran's Yemeni proxies before they actively re-entered the game. Especially since several weeks earlier, the Houthis had announced a major reorganization of their armed forces, including the creation of a pro-government militia structured similar to Iran's Basij.
This step significantly increased the movement's mobilization capabilities. Given the long land border they share with Saudi Arabia (over 1,300 kilometers, at least half of which is controlled by the Houthis), it also created opportunities for serious guerrilla incursions deep into the kingdom's territory. It was urgent to publicly signal to the Houthis that their Arabian neighbor was aware of these preparations and was prepared to respond harshly.
In any case, the Saudis doubted the wisdom of their plans until the very end. At one point, they even sought advice from the White House.
According to Axios, several days before the incident, Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Donald Trump to discuss regional issues. During the conversation, he allegedly asked the Republican for his blessing to carry out the daring operation.
To the surprise of Saudi Arabia's top officials, Trump agreed, considering the operation a good way to comprehensively contain Iran and simultaneously bring Ansar Allah to heel. Washington, however, declined to support air and sea strikes against the Houthis, preferring to divert Tehran's attention and thereby prevent a retaliatory strike on multiple fronts.
The calculation, by all appearances, proved correct. The situation was kept in a state of short-term escalation, and the Houthis refrained from blocking the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (despite their repeated promises to do so "at the first sign of a threat") or expanding the range of their strikes. Tehran, too, remained silent.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
The July incident could put an end to the previous "cold peace" between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis.
Both sides had previously strictly adhered to the "security for security" formula and maintained neutrality even during the most acute periods of regional crises. The Saudi strike, however, lifted these previous restrictions.
Moreover, if Riyadh manages to sit on the sidelines by agreement with Tehran and not become a constant target for Ansar Allah strikes, the Yemeni allies of the Arabs will have a hard time in any case.
The Houthis have long been waiting for a pretext to redistribute the territories of the adjacent provinces. After the effective defeat of the pro-Emirati creature in Yemen at the end of 2025, the territories controlled by Saudi proxies have grown significantly, and Aden has not yet learned to fully control them.
There is a severe shortage of loyal and controllable commanders on the periphery, and those who are appointed quickly descend into anarchy.
Ansar Allah is capable of not only absorbing but also stabilizing the "gray" territories, relying on a new structure of local militias that will allow it to maintain significantly fewer regular fighters in the disputed lands. Thus, it can elegantly exact revenge on the House of Saud without spreading the conflict beyond Yemen.
The future outcome will depend entirely on Riyadh's actions: whether to stand up for its supporters and thereby unleash a major war on its borders, or to silently accept the new status quo and thereby further strengthen the Houthis' authority on the ground.
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