Article

2026-06-29 Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited

Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin
[ColonelCassad] 1. CENTCOM confirmed that the US attacked Iran again overnight, carrying out several strikes in southern Iran. Iran confirmed strikes on a telecommunications tower near Sirik.

The town, not the island.

The US claims 10 strikes on various targets. Some of the explosions heard overnight were related to warning shots fired in the Strait of Hormuz at ships attempting to transit without Iran's consent.

2. The day before yesterday, the US already attacked Iran, which resulted in strikes on its facilities in Bahrain. Bahrain issued a hypocritical protest, as if it were unaware that its territory was being used to attack Iran. Iran "took note" of these protests, and further strikes on Bahraini territory are quite likely.

3. In the Strait of Hormuz itself, attacks continue on ships that ignore IRGC warnings and Iranian corridors in the strait, which are permitted to transit with the consent of Iran. Over the past three days, two vessels have been damaged in the strait for ignoring regulations.

4. Iran is expected to attack US-linked targets in the next 24 hours. Kurdish terrorists in Iraqi Kurdistan were traditionally targeted overnight. The Iraqi government, as usual, is playing dumb and doing nothing, despite having little power to influence anything.

5. The US systematically and consistently violates most of the provisions of the Islamabad Agreement, making the fate of "permanent peace in the Middle East" somewhat predictable.

The situation with Lebanon is just the icing on the cake. Israel has no intention of withdrawing from the occupied territories of southern Lebanon, meaning the war there will continue.

More from Boris Rozhin

Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics.
Iran to launch new strikes on US bases

Expectedly, but nonetheless.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced strikes on American bases in the region in the coming days, as well as on vessels violating Iran's established regime for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. US blind shots at Sirik won't solve the problem of our complete control over the Strait of Hormuz. But our strikes against violators will remind other vessels what safe passage looks like.

American bases in the region are a separate matter. In the coming days, they will experience the full extent of hell.

THE SPIRIT OF ISLAMABAD.
The most likely locations for strikes are US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are slightly less likely. I also expect a couple of tankers and bulk carriers to be set ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz and the Gulf of Oman in the coming days.

In a nighttime response, the IRGC clarified that eight American facilities in Kuwait and Bahrain associated with the US Air Force and Navy had been hit. Plus, a characteristically official statement from Iran. One of the tools of US dominance, in addition to military aggression and economic pressure, is information warfare based on deception and manipulation. The American side demonstrates a high degree of skill in distorting reality, presenting falsehood as truth, and justifying its own crimes.

The criminal clown of the US president has suffered serious blows from the Iranian people. We do not attach importance to these incoherent statements and understand that he has not abandoned his intention to commit crimes against the Iranian people. (c) Head of the Iranian Judiciary

The enemy has focused significant efforts on attempts to influence our cultural infrastructure. We do not accept a situation in which the population faces economic hardship. As we can see, Iran has no illusions about the US. P.S. As the Iranians joke, Lebanese President Aoun condemned Iran's strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain, but never mustered the courage to condemn Israel's strikes on his own country. A pathetic puppet. Some say he'll end up in trouble.

PS2. The photo shows a house in Bahrain hit by a Patriot missile attempting to shoot down an Iranian missile targeting a US base. I recognize the signature of the "air defense titans."

# id) ?>

Posted by badanov 2026-06-29 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [1944 views ] Top
File under: Govt of Iran

1

The US ~~attacked~~ retaliate on Iran again, because it fails to honor its own truce agreement.

It is clear there is no Iranian central command and authority. But just how many feudal lords or groups are there?

Posted by NN2N1 2026-06-29 04:21|| 2026-06-29 04:21|| Front Page Top

2 It is clear there is no Iranian central command and authority. But just how many feudal lords or groups are there?Posted by: NN2N1 2026-06-29 04:21

NN2N1,

You don't want to know. When religious purity is the standard rather than competence, everybody with a couple of stripes and a gun is positive that they're the Chosen One.

At this point, I'm reasonably sure that there are at least three groups right now:

*Whatever's left of the old 'civilian' government.
They are utterly without power or influence outside of the capital, but they know how to yell.

*IRGC(1), which would be the remnants of the prewar chain of command. Yeah, we've sent a lot of these guys to commune with Allan, but their staffs can very quietly keep things moving, though at a very slow pace. I would guess that their power and influence would be immediately around Tehran and Qom, though it's likely that some units elsewhere are still following orders.

*IRGC(2) - the units out in the boonies who were cut off from adult supervision when stuff started getting bombed. They're going to be up in the mountains and along the coast; and they'll do whatever the hell they want. I'd call them as the ones with the most influence and actual military power at this point - also the ones probably calling the shots in Lebanon. They aren't going to knock it off until they're dead.

There are also almost certainly some good sized towns/small cities that are under warlord control, who obey no one but Allan, when and if he dispenses his wisdom. Until then, the local HMFIC is calling the shots.

Mike

Posted by MikeKozlowski 2026-06-29 06:47|| 2026-06-29 06:47|| Front Page Top

3 Thanks Mike, a very likely scenario. I suspect we'll plod along until after the midterms, then some sort of ground action could possibly begin. Just my guess.

Posted by Besoeker 2026-06-29 07:03|| 2026-06-29 07:03|| Front Page Top

4 Solid read Mike

Posted by Clem+Elmish4239 2026-06-29 07:22|| 2026-06-29 07:22|| Front Page Top

5 ^^ #2 That's some medieval shit!

Posted by badanov 2026-06-29 08:49|| 2026-06-29 08:49|| Front Page Top

6 Likely special operations will be dropped in to support the Kurds anyone else in Iran that opposes the IRGC. They can call in airstrikes against the IRGC. (presuming of course they aren't already there).

Posted by Chantry 2026-06-29 10:14|| 2026-06-29 10:14|| Front Page Top

7 That's some medieval shit!

They may have blown back to the Middle Ages but after the mid-terms they need to be blown all the way back to the Stone Ages.

Posted by Abu Uluque 2026-06-29 16:09|| 2026-06-29 16:09|| Front Page Top

8 There is a large and prosperous Iranian diaspora, at least some of whom are eager to finance rebuilding once the Mad Mullahs have been driven out, including the royal court in exile. Iran just needs to get through this difficult bit.

Posted by trailing wife 2026-06-29 16:41|| 2026-06-29 16:41|| Front Page Top

9 Adding on to Mike's most excellent summary of the players in #2...

The Players:
1) Civ-Gov - Whatever's left of the old 'civilian' government.
2) IRGC(1) - remnants of the prewar chain of command.
3) IRGC(2) - the units out in the boonies who were cut off from adult supervision

We also have the
4) the Bonyads
News to me, the AI Summary of le Wiki is not bad:
In Iran, bonyads are opaque, quasi-governmental charitable foundations that dominate the country's economy and report directly to the Supreme Leader. While ostensibly created to redistribute wealth and conduct social welfare, these sprawling conglomerates wield massive political and economic power, controlling an estimated 20% of Iran's GDP.

Nobody talks about these guys since they have no guns and don't make proclamations. They are wealthy and influential and presumably, would like to stay that way.

5) the People - last and pretty much least, since they have no guns, no influence, and no persuasive power. Not a faction so much as scenery, but some possibilities for 5th column activities

We can lump the major factions into two categories:

True Believers - IRGC(1) & IRGC(2)
They want nukes. They will fight. Especially IRGC(2) who lack parental guidance. They are the "Iranians" we are skirmishing with. I suspect the Grownups and IRGC(1) would like them to tone it down a bit.

Grownups - the Civ-Gov and the Bonyads
This group would like to survive the war, hopefully with something to rule over and some wealth and power. These are the "Iranians" we are negotiating with.

Prediction:
As IRGC(2) gets whittled down, I would expect IRGC(1) to move closer to the Grownup position. Eventually, the kinetic distractions will die down and everyone can get back to doing the Power & Money thing.

It is a pity we cannot see inside Iranian politics. Probably some Mexican telenovela class scheming and back-stabbing going on.

tl;dr: Forecast calls for scattered, localized kinetic festivities followed by compliance later on.

Posted by SteveS 2026-06-29 19:13|| 2026-06-29 19:13|| Front Page Top

10 ^ BOOM. You and Mike. I'll just stick to snark with occasional accidents of facts

Posted by Frank G 2026-06-29 19:31|| 2026-06-29 19:31|| Front Page Top

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