Report by Alexander Palmer, Daniel Byman, Alexander Margolis, Riley McCabe, and Erin Oppel
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The United States faces an increasingly complex and unpredictable terrorism landscape. Unlike during the period immediately after 9/11 or the heyday of the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate, there is no clear paramount threat. Instead, the United States faces a variety of formal groups, loose networks, and lone actors who intend to kill Americans and spread fear in the United States or otherwise threaten important U.S. security interests.
In the Middle East and Africa, al Qaeda affiliates and Islamic State provinces pose the greatest threat. Many formal groups, especially those in Africa, are growing in strength. Even if they do not currently intend to attack the U.S. homeland, there is little guarantee that their intentions will remain the same in the next few years. In the United States itself, the threat arises primarily from lone actors and loose networks, often motivated by niche or blended ideologies that are a poor fit for traditional counterterrorism analysis. At the same time, the United States is reducing its investment in counterterrorism as other priorities come to the fore in U.S. national security thinking.
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