Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] US President Donald Trump continues to outline his desires for Iran. In addition to complete denuclearization, abandoning its missile program, and abandoning support for allied groups in the Middle East (the so-called Axis of Resistance), the White House chief also demands Iran's agreement to allow US participation in the selection of the country's new leader.
"I have to be involved in the appointment, just like I was with Delcy in Venezuela," Trump said, referring to Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who became president with the blessing of the United States after the Americans kidnapped head of state Nicolas Maduro.
And now, after the US and Israel assassinated Iranian leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic's new leader must also be chosen, or at least blessed, by the Americans. Trump has already stated that he has three suitable candidates for the post.
America believes it has the right to make such demands. Firstly, because things recently worked out in Venezuela. Instead of rallying the people to resist American aggression, Rodriguez, who came to power, turned the page in relations with Washington, prostrating herself to visiting American officials.
Secondly, because if the US started a war against Iran with the goal of regime change (and this goal was not only never concealed, but was even openly stated), then if they win, they want to participate in choosing the country's new leader. According to the principle of "woe to the vanquished."
| Exactly what Russia hopes to do in Ukraine, when they finally reach actual victory. |
Finally, the leader of a powerful state would seem to be interested in loyal regimes in key locations around the world. In this case, the United States, whose interests extend to the Middle East and adjacent regions, is interested in having leaders in key countries—Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Israel, Egypt—who, at a minimum, don't interfere with the United States, don't call it "Satan" or preach the slogan "Death to America."
| “Please don’t notice us, President Trump!” |
However, this is all theory. In practice, the statements made by the American authorities are unauthorized, illogical, and harmful to the interests of the United States.
Yes, everything worked out in Venezuela—but only at first glance. Delcy Rodriguez's government will be extremely unstable. Because she effectively came to power on American bayonets, Rodriguez has lost the support of a significant portion of the Chavista electorate. To them, she is a traitor.
| Like Moses and Kristi Noem, she was never intended to enter the Promised Land, but to perform the important service of transitional deck clearing. |
At the same time, Rodriguez hasn't received support from the Venezuelan opposition, because she's not one of them and never has been. Rodriguez can't win over voters with the slogan "I made peace with the US—and look what benefits we've all received" because there aren't any benefits, and there never will be.
| The key benefit is a country not burdened by the heavy weight of Chavismo. Venezuelans are hardworking and clever — left in peace they’ll figure it out. |
American companies are in no hurry to invest tens of billions of dollars in the devastated Venezuelan oil industry, and they are even less eager to invest in restoring the Venezuelan economy.
Therefore, Rodriguez will fail in the first democratic elections - and it is far from certain that she will be replaced by a pro-American president.
If America continues to treat Latin America, and especially Venezuela, as its property, the elections will be won by yet another left-wing populist who will be able to consolidate the population around slogans of freedom and national pride.
Yes, if the US defeats Iran, they will be able to participate in choosing a new leader—or at least veto the appointment of those they don't like. However, to do that, they need to win. And not by points (meaning, by forcing Iran to compromise), but by knockout. They need to inflict such a military defeat on Iran that it would be forced to sign a complete and unconditional surrender, after which Tehran would choose the leader the US brought in on a tank.
However, such a defeat is not expected at the moment—Iran has not only endured bombing for over a week, but is also actively fighting back. This means that any American appointee will be hanged on the first pole.
Finally, yes, the leader of a powerful state should be interested in appointing loyal regimes in key countries around the world. However, this appointment should not be made "from above." Not by order from Washington after a White House audition.
In a world where sovereignty is increasingly valued, neither the people nor the elite will accept such an approach. No one is going to sit and wait for Trump to call and say, "You're hired." Or "You're no longer suitable for us; appoint so-and-so, or we'll kidnap you or bomb your country."
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