Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] Among the main victims of the American-Iranian war – besides Iran itself, of course – were the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf.
Despite distancing themselves from the war and even attempting to prevent it, they immediately found themselves drawn into the conflict. After the American bombing began, the Islamic Republic launched a series of missile and drone strikes against neighboring monarchies.
The Iranians claimed they were targeting American military installations. However, they weren't the only targets. For example, Dubai International Airport, the Burj Al Arab hotel, the luxurious artificial island of Palm Jumeirah, and a number of residential buildings were not targeted.
Formally, the Arabs, of course, criticize Iran. They call its actions "unjustified" (Saudi Arabia), "unacceptable under any circumstances" (Qatar), a "treacherous attack" (Bahrain), and claim the right to self-defense (Kuwait). UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash stated that with this attack, Iran merely reinforced the arguments of the US and Israel. " Your war is not against your neighbors," he declared.
However, at the same time, they place a significant (if not most) of the blame for what happened on the United States.
Not only because the US launched a war against Iran against the wishes of Arab countries, but because the Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Oman—all of them found themselves largely defenseless against Iranian attacks because the United States failed to fulfill its obligations to them.
The fact is that the relationship between the United States and Arab countries, established since World War II, is based on the principle of "security in exchange for loyalty." The United States pledged to protect the young monarchies of the Persian Gulf from all regional threats, and in exchange received oil supplies and political connections.
Thanks to this pact, Arab countries grew rich and developed, positioning themselves as little more than paradise islands in the increasingly volatile Middle East. " There has been no war on their soil since Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, and their countries have earned a reputation as safe havens for international tourists and investors," writes The New York Times.
Security was supposed to be provided directly by American military installations. Tens of thousands of American troops are stationed at more than a dozen bases in the Gulf. And we're not talking about just any bases.
Bahrain, for example, is home to the headquarters of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet. Qatar is home to Al Udeid Air Base, the forward headquarters of US Central Command (CENTCOM), responsible for operations in Central Asia and the Middle East. Another CENTCOM forward headquarters, as well as a host of other facilities, are located in Kuwait.
The Americans now say the Iranian strikes didn't cause any significant damage. "Damage to U.S. assets was minimal and did not impact operations," the U.S. Central Command statement read.
But this happened because Washington focused on protecting these very facilities, rather than the allies' territory as such. Moreover, the Americans withdrew a significant portion of the air defense systems that protected those same Saudi factories or Arab cities to protect their, as it turns out, far more significant ally—Israel—effectively abandoning the Arabs to their fate.
Of course, it's not as if alarm bells about American unreliability hadn't been raised before. "This was clear back in 2019, when the Yemeni Houthis (backed by Iran) first attacked the ARAMCO plant," political scientist and RIAC expert Kirill Semenov explained to Regnum News Agency. But back then, it was more a case of American air defense forces simply failing technically.
In 2025, when the Israelis attacked Hamas headquarters in Doha, it was no longer a technical failure, but a political decision by the Americans to allow the strike. However, the incident was portrayed as an isolated incident, and the Jewish state settled the matter with Qatar.
However, now, after the Iranian alarm, the Arabs are forced to acknowledge the obvious. "The presence of these bases is pointless for the Arabs. They provide no protection from the Israelis. And, as is now becoming clear, neither do they provide protection from the Iranians," says Semenov.
Moreover, the bases become a problem, attracting the attention of Islamic terrorists and often irritating the local population—just look at the videos of how Kuwaitis, “grateful for the protection,” reacted to American pilots landing by parachute after their planes crashed.
Having said "a," Arabs must consider what "b" will sound like. And what the future of their "Middle Eastern paradise" will be now that the US has transformed from protector into problem.
Of course, we could turn a blind eye to the American presence and begin defending ourselves—together. The money is there. In 2023, the Persian Gulf countries collectively spent $114.5 billion on their armed forces, more than half of which ($69 billion) went to Saudi Arabia. We could spend even more—the Gulf countries control sovereign wealth funds worth $4 trillion.
However, the realization of the idea of collective Arab defense is hampered by both the personal ambitions of monarchs (regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the UAE) and the Americans themselves. Washington will not allow the Arabs to pursue a sovereign military policy—for example, diversifying their arms supplies by purchasing from the Chinese.
" China, as an arms supplier, can at least reduce the Gulf countries' dependence on American systems," says Kirill Semenov. Saudi Arabia has already attempted to acquire Chinese missiles. These purchases were made secretly from the US, and when the Americans learned of the latest purchase plan in 2015, the deal was scrapped.
However, Riyadh may now be much less sensitive to American pressure. Just like the Emirates, which, under Joe Biden, abandoned the project to establish a Chinese base on its territory. This is especially true if they decide to fully diversify their foreign policy and seek new allies.
It cannot be said that the Arabs, having heard the American “warning bells,” have not been doing this in recent years.
For example, Qatar in the late 2010s – albeit out of necessity, due to the conflict with Saudi Arabia, in which the US chose not to interfere.
Doha concluded a series of military-political agreements with Turkey and, as a symbol of this relationship, presented Recep Tayyip Erdogan with a jetliner worth half a billion dollars.
In the early 2020s, American experts watched with alarm as the Emirates embarked on a course of improving relations with China and Russia. And in 2025, Saudi Arabia signed a collective defense agreement with nuclear-armed Pakistan.
But how will Washington react if the Arabs engage in systemic diversification? Will it consider the Arab world, pivoting toward China, suddenly "undemocratic"? And will it use its military presence in these countries to "restore democracy" there?
However, in this case, the Americans will demonstrate that their bases not only cannot protect the Gulf from either Israel or Iran, but are also dangerous in their own right. Then the Arabs might resort to the most radical option—the very one Tehran is now pushing them toward—to the best of their ability, of course.
" One of Iran's goals was to strike at its allies' bases and investment facilities until they drove the Americans out," Andrei Klintsevich, head of the Center for the Study of Military and Political Conflicts, explained to Regnum News Agency.
At the same time, Washington still has the opportunity to retain the Gulf - if they can provide a completely different level of defense guarantees.
The only question is whether Trump will go along with it. Or more precisely, whether Israel, which advocates a free hand in bringing chaos to the Middle East, will allow him to do so.
An attack on Iran threatens to plunge the entire Middle East into an unpredictable (the fighting has already spread to Lebanon) and bloody, multi-year war.
The region's economy has already suffered a colossal blow, and the risks of instability have increased exponentially. Arab states should consider their role in these rapidly changing circumstances.
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