Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Leonid Tsukanov
[Regnum] The Israeli parliamentary (Knesset) elections have concluded. However, even after 70% of the ballots have been counted, it remains impossible to determine a clear favorite: neither the government nor the opposition secured the coveted "controlling stake" of 61 seats and are forced to seek support from a third force—Israeli Arabs.
The Israeli Central Election Commission plans to announce the final election results by Friday, October 30. At that time, it will become clear which political force will determine the fate of the Jewish state in the coming years. However, even after that, the key question—whether Benjamin Netanyahu will remain in big-time politics—will remain open.
From the Israeli perspective, the Knesset elections took place in the midst of a siege. The National Army continued operations in Lebanon and Syria, prepared for a new (still hypothetical) attack on Iran, and expanded the scope of its operations in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
Active battles were also raging within the country: by autumn, conflicts between the religious and secular camps, as well as between the military and civilian elites, had intensified. Israel had effectively reached a point where the country's development vector for the coming decades would be determined.
The disagreements fueled electoral mobilization, with 36 parties and socio-political associations vying for votes. Moreover, at least five of them were created specifically for the current election cycle and represented the interests of narrow groups of the population (military reservists, conservative farmers, etc.).
The final voter turnout (77.7%) also broke previous records, becoming the highest since 1999.
The emphasis also proved telling. The Israeli press positioned the elections not as another round of expression of will, but as a "national referendum" that would answer the question of whether the country was moving in the right direction.
Israeli political heavyweights—Prime Minister Netanyahu and his opponent, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot —were both confident of a quick and decisive victory. Therefore, they began congratulating their supporters on their triumph after the first quarter of the ballots had been counted.
However, the joy in both cases proved premature. The prime minister's Likud party, although it retained its lead within the coalition (with at least 27 seats) and overtook Eisenkot's Yashar party (20 seats), was unable to pull ahead significantly.
Moreover, compared to previous years (at a similar stage of vote processing), Netanyahu's party has clearly lost support, receiving its lowest result since 2009. Most of the parties allied with the prime minister are also showing worse results compared to previous terms.
The opposition isn't faring much better. Eisenkot's supporters have managed to maintain a narrow lead over the government bloc (47 to 54), but this has been achieved by attracting a large number of small parties whose interests align only at the tactical level. This, in turn, makes the future coalition extremely unstable and prone to internal discord.
As the ballots are processed, it becomes clear that the decisive role in forming the new ruling coalition will be played by the Arab political forces – the Joint Arab List (the parliamentary union of the Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad parties, representing the interests of the non-Jewish population) and the Ra'am party.
They are projected to win 19 mandates (13 and 6 seats, respectively), a record result for minority parties. Nevertheless, their contribution will be sufficient to form a stable coalition counterweight in the Knesset and legitimize the new government.
Naturally, the rise of Arab forces quickly became surrounded by conspiracy theories and became fodder for attacks from heavyweights. For example, on election day, Israeli police detained a gang of vote-buying agents in the Negev who were working on behalf of Ra'am, convincing the local Bedouin population to vote for the "Arab cause" in exchange for a few thousand shekels.
The extent of the ballot stuffing remains to be seen, and both political blocs are hoping that resetting the votes in some polling stations will help them gain a small boost. However, this will have little impact on the overall picture. Sooner or later, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot, who have already announced their voluntary distancing from Ra'am and the Joint List, will have to seek a compromise with the Arab parties.
In public, Arab parliamentarians lean more toward the opposition. For example, Joint List chairman Youssef Jabareen told reporters that the goal of his political platform is to oust Netanyahu and his fellow hawks, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, from the government.
In his view, it is they who are responsible for the current problems of Arab Israelis. Therefore, it is appropriate to act according to the principle "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."
However, the Arab parties are also in no hurry to align themselves with the opposition. The negative experience of Ra'am, which once supported Netanyahu's opponents but played only a decorative role in the Knesset under them, is making its presence felt. Therefore, even after the results are announced, the political parties will face a long period of behind-the-scenes bargaining and the formation of permanent alliances.
For the current prime minister, the results of these elections will be decisive—not only for his career, but also for his future life. Netanyahu is mired in a long trail of political and corruption scandals. If the charges are proven, taken together, they could easily amount to treason.
And his opponents are just waiting for the chance to send the politician to jail, while at the same time blaming him for the main failures on both the external and internal fronts in recent years.
Nevertheless, even if defeated, Netanyahu has a chance to remain in public politics. And even, with a bit of luck, return to the prime minister's chair. As the leader of one of Israel's largest political parties with strong representation in the Knesset, if he loses, he could very well lay claim to the informal status of leader of the new opposition. And, as a result, he could make life difficult for the Eisenkot bloc, pushing for its dissolution and new early elections.
This strategy has proven successful in the past, helping Netanyahu return to the prime minister's post less than a year and a half after his defeat. However, whether such a tactic will work again remains a big question. This time, the prime minister's opponents will be expecting a blow and will try to divide his camp even before the Knesset convenes for its first official session.
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