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2025-07-18 The Grand Turk
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Israeli strikes on Damascus force Erdogan to react
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kamran Gasanov
[REGNUM] The change of power in Damascus almost coincided with the return of Donald Trump to the US presidency. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could personally boast of the armed opposition’s rise to power as his greatest foreign policy triumph. Since then, from the perspective of Turkish interests, any developments in Syria must be viewed in light of two key variables: Erdogan’s victory and the Trump factor.
Turkey's dominance in Syria and its closest ties to Ahmed al-Sharaa also gave it the greatest responsibility for the future of the new country.
Of course, the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (an organization whose activities are banned in the Russian Federation) has been playing multi-vector since the first days of his presidency. He received ministers from EU countries and Great Britain and a representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, made his first visit to the KSA, shook hands with all the leaders of the League of Arab States (LAS) and even Donald Trump.
However, many experts, like Trump, consider Erdogan to be the main "culprit" of the coup d'etat in Damascus in December 2024. Accordingly, he is responsible for those he has tamed. Al-Sharaa's reputation affects Erdogan's reputation, and the Syrian president is not doing well with that right now.
With the West Bank massacre and the killing of Alawites still fresh in the memory, the recent Druze incidents in April, and no progress in the negotiations with the Kurds. The integrity of the country, as well as the regime, is under constant pressure.
All this time, Syria has also lived under pressure from Israel, which, as a preventive measure after Assad's overthrow, sent troops to the Golan Heights and demanded that the new authorities fully demilitarize south of Damascus. In April, the IDF carried out airstrikes on Turkish military bases in Syria.
Since mid-April, Syria has again been under threat of a new civil war and external invasion.
Domestic disputes between a few Druze and Bedouins in As-Suwayda led to large-scale clashes between Druze and Syrian security forces, in which Israel intervened. After events spread beyond the region and the Israeli Air Force bombed the General Staff and the presidential palace in Damascus, Erdogan is obliged to take the side of his ally.
The Turkish Foreign Ministry, which is counting on al-Sharaa's ability to reach an agreement with the Druze, sees the IDF strikes as "an act of sabotage against the efforts of the Syrian authorities to ensure peace, stability and security."
On the day of the ceasefire in Suwayda, Erdogan called al-Sharaa and welcomed the ceasefire. He lashed out at Israel, considering its attacks a threat not only to Syria but to the entire region, and Damascus assured of its support.
The Turkish Grand National Assembly took a long swipe at Israel, calling its airstrikes "cowardly" and recalling Tel Aviv's "genocide in Gaza" as well as attacks on Lebanon and Iran.
Critical notes from the Turkish government and parliament are important from a diplomatic point of view.
Erdogan and his colleagues in the ruling coalition are demonstrating solidarity and showing that they will not abandon their brainchild to its fate. The need for a reaction is stimulated by the Israel factor.
Now, in any conflict involving Benjamin Netanyahu, sympathies are given to his opponents - even Iran, the Houthis and Hezbollah, although the latter are clearly not Turkey's allies.
Israel and Türkiye have become real geopolitical opponents in recent years.
After Assad was overthrown, Türkiye began to project its geopolitics across Syria, not just the north. The likelihood of a head-on clash with Israel increased. The April incidents proved the seriousness of the situation.
Will Türkiye go beyond diplomatic support?
To a certain extent, yes.
Ankara, according to the newspaper Sabah, has already sent signals to Damascus about its readiness to help strengthen the Syrian army. " If we are asked, we will provide all possible support in strengthening Syria's defense capability and supporting its fight against terrorism," the Turkish Foreign Ministry noted.
In fact, the Turks are already building the Syrian army and constructing their bases. The talk is probably about strengthening and accelerating both processes.
There are limits to support for Syria, however. Despite all the hatred for Netanyahu, who, according to Erdogan, “has surpassed Hitler,” no one wants a direct military clash.
It’s not that Turkey is afraid. Unlike Iran, the Turkish military can threaten Israel right across the border. The difficulty is that, unlike Iran, the Turkish economy is tied to European markets and American banks.
The US Treasury periodically shows its teeth, blocking companies engaged in parallel import-export with Russia or participating in the Akkuyu project. Israel's conflicts with Iran have shown that, despite all the criticism of Netanyahu, at the "hour X", both Europeans and Americans forget about justice and express solidarity with the Jewish state.
The Trump factor is a separate layer among the restraining variables.
It is dangerous to anger a Republican. In 2018, he did not bring down the Turkish economy, but he did hurt the falling lira. At the same time, the “current version” of President Trump is more loyal to Erdogan.
It was at Erdogan's instigation that Trump recognized Al-Sharaa and blessed his Turkish counterpart to hold the Istanbul talks between Russia and Ukraine. Turkey believes in the possibility of reviving the F-35 deal and therefore will dose its anti-Israeli actions, even if Trump himself is good at scolding Netanyahu and calling on him to be reasonable.
The head of the White House is capable of acting as a peacemaker between Erdogan and Netanyahu.
Incidentally, just a couple of days after the Israeli Prime Minister’s visit to the Oval Office in mid-April, negotiations between Turkish and Israeli representatives on de-escalation in Syria began in Baku.
In the current conflict over the Druze, Ankara is clearly counting on Trump's mediation. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on July 16 that Turkish intelligence had conveyed its opinion on the IDF strikes to regional powers and the United States. Ankara is in close contact with U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack, he added.
Turkey's hopes are being fulfilled so far.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US administration expects de-escalation between Syria and Israel. Al-Sharaa's willingness to end the fighting, coupled with Washington's pressure on Israel, offers a chance to stabilize the situation.
Objectively, the situation in Suwayda is not as explosive and dramatic as in Latakia and especially in Gaza. If Erdogan did not move with his "Islamic army" to Israel in Palestine, then now the probability of such a scenario is even less.
It is in Erdogan's interests for the conflict between Syria and Israel to subside. A resumption of the conflict will force the Turkish army to react. After all, unlike Gaza, there are Turkish troops in Syria, and defense against the IDF is a matter of image and geopolitical influence.
The escalation of the conflict in Syria is dangerous not only because of the confrontation with Israel, but also because of the destabilization of the Arab country itself. Against the backdrop of clashes in Suwayda, Kurdish leader Saleh Muslim has questioned the legitimacy of al-Sharaa. If the Druze, and perhaps even the Alawites, intensify their struggle against Damascus, Kurdish separatism, which Erdogan and Turkey have been fighting for half a century, will receive a new lease of life.
That is why Erdogan is sending a soft but unambiguous signal to both the Kurds themselves and Israel that he will not sit idly by in this situation. “Both the Kurds within our country’s borders and the Kurds in Syria are our brothers. We will not allow them to become an object in the hands of the Zionists, ” the Turkish leader said. He added: “ We did not give consent to the disintegration of Syria yesterday and we certainly will not give it today or tomorrow.”
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Posted by badanov 2025-07-18 00:00||
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