Archived material Access restricted Article
Rantburg

Today's Front Page   View All of Wed 06/25/2025 View Tue 06/24/2025 View Mon 06/23/2025 View Sun 06/22/2025 View Sat 06/21/2025 View Fri 06/20/2025 View Thu 06/19/2025
1
2025-06-25 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
American strikes only set Iran’s nuclear program back by months to years, depending who you ask
Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.
Posted by trailing wife 2025-06-25 2025-06-25 00:19|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [396 views ]  Top
 File under: Govt of Iran 

#1 
I guess how long of a set-back delay will depend on if Hillary, or an LSD Swamper of hers, can arrange a new Uranium Onedeal for Iran?
Posted by NN2N1 2025-06-25 04:46||   2025-06-25 04:46|| Front Page Top

#2 Iran's nuclear program 'set back by years,' IDF says, as new satellite images show destruction
Posted by Grom the Affective 2025-06-25 05:25||   2025-06-25 05:25|| Front Page Top

#3 As long as we don't ship pallets of billions of dollars to them again.
Posted by Procopius2k 2025-06-25 07:15||   2025-06-25 07:15|| Front Page Top

#4 ...The loons who are insisting that we don't 'know' that Fordow has been destroyed are utterly, utterly clueless about how this sh!t works. At best, the physical plant itself is unusable even if it's more or less intact. The centrifuges require EXTREMELY delicate handling, and you don't just turn them off and haul 'em out the door by calling Two Jihadis And A Truck.

Could they have saved the enriched uranium they had? It would have been remarkably stupid even for the Iranians if they hadn't tried. Could they still build a bomb? Yep. The difference now is that they might get 3-4 bombs out of that, then that's all she wrote. They are going to be big, unwieldy beasts that are unlikely to be aircraft deliverable (IF they had any aircraft left) and they may not have any missiles left that are big enough to haul them from point a to point b. And if they did, then they have an interesting dilemma: they'll have to launch all of them in one go to even have a shot at getting past the Israeli BMD....and we already know they're very, very good.

Mike
Posted by MikeKozlowski 2025-06-25 08:29||   2025-06-25 08:29|| Front Page Top

#5 Interesting. From the Times of Israel:

Trump says Israel sent agents into Iran’s Fordo nuclear site, saw ‘obliteration’

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday suggested that Israel sent agents to Iran’s Fordo nuclear site after US struck it earlier this week, insisting the attack was a success and warning that he was willing to strike again if Iran tried to revive its enrichment program.

“You know they have guys that go in there after the hit, and they said it was total obliteration,” Trump told reporters at the NATO summit in The Hague, speaking about the bombing of Fordo.

“Israel is doing a report on it now, I understand, and I was told that they said it was total obliteration. I believe it was total obliteration, and I believe they didn’t have a chance to get anything out because we acted fast.”

Israeli officials told the Kan public broadcaster Wednesday, responding to Trump’s comments, that they were unaware of any Israeli operation at the Fordo nuclear facility after the strike.

Asked by a reporter Sunday if the US would carry out more attacks if Tehran were to rebuild its uranium enrichment facilities, Trump said: “Sure.”
Posted by trailing wife 2025-06-25 09:42||   2025-06-25 09:42|| Front Page Top

#6 It's become an article of faith for the Democrats that the attack failed.
Posted by Matt 2025-06-25 09:59||   2025-06-25 09:59|| Front Page Top

#7 ^ and prayer
Posted by Frank G 2025-06-25 10:25||   2025-06-25 10:25|| Front Page Top

#8 I'm no structural engineer, but I would be apprehensive, to put it mildly, about working in a tunnel complex that had just had several tons of high explosives dropped on it.
Posted by Matt 2025-06-25 10:40||   2025-06-25 10:40|| Front Page Top

#9 Several appear to be 'working from home.'
Posted by Besoeker 2025-06-25 10:44||   2025-06-25 10:44|| Front Page Top

#10 ^^ Or the other side
Posted by DarthVader 2025-06-25 10:46||   2025-06-25 10:46|| Front Page Top

#11 Consider the tunnels were designed for a certain quality of rock, but probably not shattered rock. I think it fell in, in many places, but if not, I'd be real cautious about going back in there.
Posted by Bobby 2025-06-25 10:54||   2025-06-25 10:54|| Front Page Top

#12 The overpressure from the blasts alone should have made most areas unoccupiable
Posted by Frank G 2025-06-25 10:59||   2025-06-25 10:59|| Front Page Top

#13 ^Well, they can import Gazans to dig new tunnels.
Posted by Grom the Affective 2025-06-25 11:10||   2025-06-25 11:10|| Front Page Top

#14 The classified assessment is at odds with the statements of President Donald Trump

...The tack in the backside of the Democratic Party...

and high-ranking US officials — including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. They have said the weekend strikes, which used a combination of bunker-busting bombs and more conventional weapons, essentially eliminated Iran’s nuclear program.

OK, wait a minute. If it's a classified assessment, how is it that we're hearing about it and why are the sources, who requested anonymity discussing the matter with the media? Is this leak authorized or unauthorized or is it total bullshit?

David Muir on ABC led with this story last night as if to say the US airstrike was totally ineffective and Donald Trump lied. But then, we all know how David Muir feels about Donald Trump.

At any rate, the ayatolla now knows that we can hit him with impunity and, if need be, we'll hit him again and again. And that's a damn sight better than sending him cargo planes loaded with cash.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2025-06-25 11:11||   2025-06-25 11:11|| Front Page Top

#15 /\ And that's a damn sight better than sending him cargo planes loaded with cash.

That was an act of treason.
Posted by Besoeker 2025-06-25 11:14||   2025-06-25 11:14|| Front Page Top

#16 Iran finally reveals what happened to its nuclear programme in strikes as Nato chief fawns over 'daddy' Trump: Live updates
Posted by Skidmark 2025-06-25 11:37||   2025-06-25 11:37|| Front Page Top

#17 Congresscritters are always running off on investigative missions to Tahiti. Let's send AOC and Ihlan Omar to investigate the integrity of the tunnels. If they don't come back, we'll know. It's a win-win.
Posted by Matt 2025-06-25 12:08||   2025-06-25 12:08|| Front Page Top

#18 I commented earlier but it should be said again - the same IC that said Iran was not seeking nukes, is the same IC that is claiming what a success the bombing was.

Thanks TW - I didnt read that. Good to know someone put's eyes on it. I'll wait for the report. Definitely think something like this should get at least the 72 hour rule before coming to any determinations.

Posted by mossomo 2025-06-25 13:21||   2025-06-25 13:21|| Front Page Top

#19 Thanks TW - I didnt read that.

Always welcome, my dear. I should have mentioned that it had just popped up in today’s liveblog, and I shared as soon as I saw it.

OK, wait a minute. If it's a classified assessment, how is it that we're hearing about it and why are the sources, who requested anonymity discussing the matter with the media? Is this leak authorized or unauthorized or is it total bullshit?

Things I’ve read in the past two days, Abu Uluque, plus a blunt statement on the subject from the White House spokeswoman (whose name escapes me at the moment, but she’s blond and quick witted) make it clear the unauthorized leaker in concert with the chosen journalist are trying to shape the narrative by distorting a minority report, ie. Deep State enemy action.

The Related link stacked in the original post above, Pooh-Poohing the Iran Bombing underlines that:

All right, let’s talk about the leaked intel assessment on the bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites. CNN reported one US intelligence assessment concluded that Iran’s nuclear program has only been set back a few months. The New York Times soon followed with a nearly identical piece.

There are no specifics in either piece. We don’t know—and it’s clear the reporters do not know—which sites they are relaying quotes about. And there’s a strange, or maybe not so strange, unwillingness to note that the assessment in question, from the Defense Intelligence Agency, was made with “low confidence”—which is code for “we don’t really know what happened so we’re going to guess, kind of.”
Posted by trailing wife 2025-06-25 13:40||   2025-06-25 13:40|| Front Page Top

#20 PJ Media: Secretary Rubio speaks on the subject of the leaked assessment.
Posted by trailing wife 2025-06-25 13:56||   2025-06-25 13:56|| Front Page Top

#21 This is a comfort:

Speaking alongside Rubio at the NATO Summit, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the FBI is investigating the intelligence leak and how it became public.

Posted by trailing wife 2025-06-25 14:03||   2025-06-25 14:03|| Front Page Top

#22 Posted in CTH today by a reader, the author seems to know his business:
"Complete BDA analysis of Midnight Hammer Strike:

@HaroldWren22

Days ago, we were all looking at the pictures of Al Fordow to ascertain how badly the site was damaged following the B-2 strike using MOPs (gbu-57s).

The strike was clever– first six went went through the air shafts as evidenced by the before and after the ventilation shaft building being obliterated. Why is this important? A lot of the criticism of this strike was people doubting the GBU-57 even with repeated strikes to same impact point could make it through the mountain. Spoiler: it did. But these six made it down the ventilation shaft WITHOUT having to bore through the mountain, directly into the main hall where the centrifuges and other sensitive equipment were.

Now about the other six impacts: the GBU-57 has enough power to go through 300 feet of hardned concrete OR rock. Meaning the first three would have broken apart the mountain and made it unstable, causing the mountain over the facility to be susceptible to collapse. The second three would have punched the rest of the way through these holes and also made it into the mail hall of Al Fordow at the other end. The holes match the schematics and are at either end of the facility.

So, to sum up, nine of the twelve GBU-57 MOPs would have entered the Al Fordow main hall nearly untouched where they detonated with full force. The other three would have been used to smash and disrupt the rock overhead making a collapse likely. The overpressure from the nine would have created the conditions favorable to collapse the site from the inside.

There is subsidance (think land slide and shape changes) to the mountain near the GBU-57 aimpoints suggesting the facility did indeed collapse.

More: there is evidence of extreme fire and its aftermath in the commercial satellite after photos, shown as a grey blue ash all over the mountain coming from the GBU-57 aimpoints, and this matches numerous videos and pictures taken by locals. There is photographic and video evidence that an intense fire inside the facility burned for up to eight hours after the strike shooting fire hundreds of feet in to the air for hours.

So what was it in Al Fordow that burned so intensely? The answer is in the reports. Official word has been released here on X that the Administration and US Military is sure that the Iranian Regime had moved the HEU 60% to Al Fordow for safe keeping as they didnt believe the site could be penetrated. This is likely true, given the facility had been under Intelligence/Surveillance/Reconnaissance watchy by ISR drones 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for months.

So what was it that burned?? The Highly Enriched Uranium. I checked the Material Safety Data Sheet on Uranium 235 **powder** and here is what it says:

Is Uranium 235 Flammable?
Yes, powdered uranium-235 is flammable. Uranium metal powder is autopyrophoric and can burn spontaneously at room temperature in the presence of air, oxygen, and water.4 The adiabatic flame temperature of uranium in air and oxygen are 3773 K and 4843 K, respectively.2 Additionally, uranium is highly flammable, and finely powdered uranium can literally catch fire on contact with air.

Now lets talk about Natanz. Some reports of OSINT accounts, and others like Jenn Griffin are claiming Natanz was also not struck sufficiently. Here’s what we know: Natanz wasnt buried half as deep as Al Fordow. It was well within the capabilities of a single GBU-57 to penetrate and destroy. However we know for sure they used two GBU-57s on that site, and the aimpoint where it entered the underground facility is visible on commercial satellite imagery.

In short, all three facilities are 100% dead. There’s no undoing what was done to them, they are a total loss. And there is strong circumstantial evidence the Highly Enriched Uranium is also gone, having been the fuel that caused the intense fire at Al Fordow.

Another tell: Israel hasnt felt the need to revisit any of those sites with aircraft other than Al Fordow for good measure. NATO is jubilant.

The middle east nations are also happy with the outcome of the strike. The reality is, if those sites survived, even just partially, there’s no way the reaction across the board would be this pleased with the outcome.

The disinformation about the effectiveness of this strike is politically motivated, not supported by the data that is publicly available. Now, think about the ISR data we dont have. The reason the White House and Pentagon are speaking with such certainty is because they ARE certain. Operation Midnight Hammer was a total success."
Posted by NoMoreBS 2025-06-25 15:01||   2025-06-25 15:01|| Front Page Top

#23 /\ Very interesting NoMo. Can you provide a link please ?
Posted by Besoeker 2025-06-25 15:35||   2025-06-25 15:35|| Front Page Top

#24 B> - I posted the commentary in full, it was inside a CTH topic thread with no link cited beyond the author's name "@HaroldWren22":
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/06/25/wednesday-june-25th-open-thread/#comments
Posted by NoMoreBS 2025-06-25 15:57||   2025-06-25 15:57|| Front Page Top

#25 Got it! Thanks much.
Posted by Besoeker 2025-06-25 16:37||   2025-06-25 16:37|| Front Page Top

#26 Per FOX news: IAEA and Klingons now saying "Iran nuclear program set back years."
Posted by Besoeker 2025-06-25 16:46||   2025-06-25 16:46|| Front Page Top

#27 ^#22 is on X
Posted by Bobby 2025-06-25 17:32||   2025-06-25 17:32|| Front Page Top

#28 Uses the pseudonym Harold Finch from the "Person of Interest" TV show, where the character is:"Harold Finch, also known by a series of aliases, is a reclusive billionaire software genius who built a machine that predicts future crimes."

In one of his twitter posts he describes himself as: "As an IT professional, a former DoD IT professional & part of the corner of twitter/x that broke the spygate/FISA abuse story..."
Posted by NoMoreBS 2025-06-25 17:56||   2025-06-25 17:56|| Front Page Top

#29 Thanks for that X link Bobby.
Posted by Besoeker 2025-06-25 18:33||   2025-06-25 18:33|| Front Page Top

#30 It is fun watching this story metamorphose.
So far, we have:
Impregnable underground facilty -- Everybody
"We done blowed it all to hell!" -- Donald Trump
Doubt on the overall damage -- Deep State leakers
Previously unseen damage -- BBC

Eventually we will get back to done blowed it all to hell. Ash from burning uranium is a hint!

Lots of nice pix at the BBC if you are into BDA.

Good discussion! One of the great things about Rantburg U is that there is always someone who knows something. Or knows a guy who knows a guy...
Posted by SteveS 2025-06-25 21:54||   2025-06-25 21:54|| Front Page Top

23:02 Lord Garth
22:43 Jefe101
22:31 trailing wife
22:08 SteveS
21:54 SteveS
21:15 trailing wife
21:15 SteveS
21:11 trailing wife
21:11 SteveS
19:45 Lord Garth
19:26 Cured Romantic
18:50 Mercutio
18:33 Besoeker
17:56 NoMoreBS
17:42 Punkissimo di destra
17:32 Bobby
16:46 Besoeker
16:43 swksvolFF
16:37 Besoeker
15:57 NoMoreBS
15:35 Besoeker
15:30 NoMoreBS
15:29 swksvolFF
15:23 NoMoreBS
Merry-Go-Blog










Paypal:
Google
Search WWW Search rantburg.com