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2023-06-24 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
48 Hour Rule - Potential Coup Attempt in Russia Roundup (Part 1)
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Posted by Slenter Panda4300 2023-06-24 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [11133 views ]  Top

#1 Prigozhin says that fighting has taken place with Russian forces when the leadership has given false information. He adds that 60-70 soldiers have joined Wagner and that most "wave their hands cheerfully" when they meet.

It looks like both Wagner forces and Russian troops are in Rostov.
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 00:24||   2023-06-24 00:24|| Front Page Top

#2 The Russian army struck at least two vehicles from the Wagner PMC column in the Voronezh region
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 00:27||   2023-06-24 00:27|| Front Page Top

#3 Interesting times are ahead. If regular Russian soldiers join, it will be bad for Putin. If they don't, Wagner will be crushed.
Posted by DarthVader 2023-06-24 00:29||   2023-06-24 00:29|| Front Page Top

#4 It also depends on what Prigozhin is willing to settle for. SHOIGU!, GARASIMOV!, Defense Minister job or the whole enchilada? He is reported in negotiations with the deputy defense minister.
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 00:50||   2023-06-24 00:50|| Front Page Top

#5 Prigozhin is holding talks at the headquarters of the Southern Front in Rostov.

Quoted:

"PMC Wagner at the headquarters of the Southern Military District in Rostov

In the video, Yevgeny Prigozhin is talking with Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov and First Deputy Chief of the GRU Alekseev."

Not much of a coup if you ask me.

I think ya'll are being played, big time.

Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 01:11||   2023-06-24 01:11|| Front Page Top

#6 This Wagner Group stuff seems to be theater.
Posted by DooDahMan 2023-06-24 01:35||   2023-06-24 01:35|| Front Page Top

#7 All Russia was watching the wrestling:
"Prigozhin and Shoigu are... nestling?!?"
A voice on the phone
From Ukrainian throne:
"Could you queens kindly get back to kesseling?"
Posted by Flolutle Noodleman9058 2023-06-24 04:13||   2023-06-24 04:13|| Front Page Top

#8 After reviewing various reports I’m inclined to believe it’s an elaborate mashkirova. The long lead up establishing the chef as a loose cannon lends credibility to his actions. Yet Wagner is actually run operationally by Russian line officers. This episode will draw Western sympathizers to the surface for identification and neutralization. Meanwhile there’s been a slackening of activity along the line of operations. Most importantly a large number of units can be redeployed to position on different axis, probably without being attacked by Western forces due to the ambiguity of their intent. If Wagner is short on ammo as claimed and is (in fact) dependent on regular army logistics support they aren’t going to get very far on their “March to Moscow.”
Posted by Slenter Panda4300 2023-06-24 07:00||   2023-06-24 07:00|| Front Page Top

#9 Russian TV channels have been hacked replacing replacing programming with images of Prigozhin (AKA "Bald Oktober") and his "inflammatory" rhe·tor·i·cals.
Posted by Slats Snore5077 2023-06-24 07:12||   2023-06-24 07:12|| Front Page Top

#10 Can we please just stay out of this one ?
Posted by Besoeker 2023-06-24 07:31||   2023-06-24 07:31|| Front Page Top

#11 Fight's on. Putin called Prigozhin a traitor. Wagner column passed Voronezh city and oblast and are in Lipetsk oblast. Big Su-34 airbase at Voronezh. Makes a useful prize and airbase is great for logistics and fuel. An-24 type aircraft shot down by Wagner. My guess was An-30 recon bird.

More than halfway to Moscow. Meeting little resistance. Moscally forces bombing oil depots to slow Wagner.

Population of Rostok generally supporting Wagner. Explosion in Rostok near Defense Ministry.
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 07:40||   2023-06-24 07:40|| Front Page Top

#12 #10 - "Let's you and him fight"
Posted by Frank G 2023-06-24 07:51||   2023-06-24 07:51|| Front Page Top

#13 The Russian Defense Ministry's Ka-52 helicopter was very lucky in #Voronezh.

Sounds like the second shot got him.
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 08:02||   2023-06-24 08:02|| Front Page Top

#14 Clash Report:
Kadyrov’s Tik Tok brigade going to Rostov to take on Wagner.

Moscow digging in and mining bridges.

Moscow is preparing for a siege. The city is practically isolated by police and military units. All military equipment, which until now remained in reserve and in the border regions, is being withdrawn to Moscow.

Russian elites heading to St. Petersburg.
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 08:25||   2023-06-24 08:25|| Front Page Top

#15 Putin's plane took off from Moscow and disappeared from radar
#Putin's special Il96-300PU (Point of Control) plane took off from #Moscow toward St. Petersburg at 14:16 Moscow time, FlightRadar data shows. The flight's destination was not specified, and it disappeared from the tracking system near Tver. One of Putin's residences is in the Tver region.

The aircraft is equipped to control the Armed Forces.
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 08:35||   2023-06-24 08:35|| Front Page Top

#16 Are the elites fleeing?

It is reported that Prime Minister Mishustin's plane has left for St. Petersburg.

Several other business jets are also on their way to Russia's northern capital. (and Turkey)

In addition, the richest member of the government, Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, has already left the country.
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 08:39||   2023-06-24 08:39|| Front Page Top

#17 In charge now?

Shoigu.

A coup has taken place.
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 08:43||   2023-06-24 08:43|| Front Page Top

#18 Try the sushi, Vlad
Posted by Frank G 2023-06-24 08:50||   2023-06-24 08:50|| Front Page Top

#19 Putin (or somebody) created a monster with these fellas. It's been an ongoing struggle between the Wags and the Kremlin. If Putin cannot stop them, he is obviously finished.

It could be concluded in days, not weeks.

Posted by Besoeker 2023-06-24 08:51||   2023-06-24 08:51|| Front Page Top

#20 What sources are you reading? The accounts I am reading haven't mentioned/caught up to a Shoigu coup yet.
All articles posted on Rantburg have hotlinks in the headlines and are supposed to have the name of the site in square brackets at the beginning of the text block or in a highlighted comment above exactly to provide the answer to this question. Some few do not yet have the square bracket thingy today because I pooped out last night before the work was finished, as I’m recovering from a short vacation, but I did prioritize those articles relating to this story.

—trailing wife for the moderators at 11:15 a.m. ET

Shoigu in charge may agravate the situation. Reading army formations are defecting to Wagner.
8/ "The defence ministry has lost control over a number of units and formations of the South Eastern Military District, it will not be possible to organise defence by the Rosgvardia [Russian National Guard] and the FSB. Local leaders are extremely careful in their statements".

9/ "Attempts to counter Prigozhin are only going through the FSB and the National Guard. The Ministry of Defence has simply withdrawn, junior officers either refuse to follow orders or directly support Wagner."

11/ "A number of units of the Ministry of Defence that participated in the war are beginning to come under the command of Wagner. Entire corps. Shoigu and Gerasimov's people are being removed."
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 08:53||   2023-06-24 08:53|| Front Page Top

#21 I seem to remember a video a few months ago with Prigozhin on a rant with allegedly dead Russian soldiers lying in the background. Some thought that was just an act...not so sure now.
Posted by DooDahMan 2023-06-24 08:56||   2023-06-24 08:56|| Front Page Top

#22 What sources are you reading? The accounts I am reading haven't mentioned/caught up to a Shoigu coup yet.

Fuck you.
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 09:02||   2023-06-24 09:02|| Front Page Top

#23 You too Buddy.
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 09:05||   2023-06-24 09:05|| Front Page Top

#24 Column of PMC Wagner has reportedly passed Yelets of Lipetsk region
Posted by DarthVader 2023-06-24 09:25||   2023-06-24 09:25|| Front Page Top

#25 Translation from Gulugu.net: "The whole of April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS and captured Javelins. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months"
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 09:28||   2023-06-24 09:28|| Front Page Top

#26 Lukashenka's airplane, reportedly with his family landed in Turkey, 6+ hours ago. The Belarus Brigade fighting for Ukraine now wants to enter Belarus and overthrow Lukashenka, if he is still there.
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 09:31||   2023-06-24 09:31|| Front Page Top

#27 As the cooler heads say, 48 hour rule, but it sure looks like a whole flock of black swans at the moment.
Posted by M. Murcek 2023-06-24 09:34||   2023-06-24 09:34|| Front Page Top

#28 Russian citizens are scouring YouTube for accurate news since Putin did not ban YouTube even though other Western online sites were blocked at the start of the Ukrainian "Special Operation".
Posted by Slats Snore5077 2023-06-24 09:38||   2023-06-24 09:38|| Front Page Top

#29 Love cam of Moscow.


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=R5U037pgp_M&pp=ygUTbW9zY293IGxpdmUgY2FtZXJhIA%3D%3D
Posted by Slats Snore5077 2023-06-24 09:53||   2023-06-24 09:53|| Front Page Top

#30 Love = Live
Posted by Slats Snore5077 2023-06-24 09:53||   2023-06-24 09:53|| Front Page Top

#31 Artur Rehi has a great breakdown on this
Posted by DarthVader 2023-06-24 10:00||   2023-06-24 10:00|| Front Page Top

#32 Rostov prison inmates were asked to Join Wagner and march on Moscow.

A Storm Z unit (MoD recruits from prisons, cannon fodder) made a video to support Wagner.

Fate of Russian units in Ukraine? The Ukrainians have been working hard to cut off logistics from Crimea and the Azov sea ports. Now Rostov and Voronezh supply routes look to be cut off for now. Food, fuel, ammo and replacements will run out soon.
Posted by Enver Slager8035 2023-06-24 10:03||   2023-06-24 10:03|| Front Page Top

#33 All bus routes from occupied parts of Donetsk region of Ukraine towards Rostov region, Moscow and Moscow region will be cancelled
Posted by DarthVader 2023-06-24 10:36||   2023-06-24 10:36|| Front Page Top

#34 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 10:48||   2023-06-24 10:48|| Front Page Top

#35 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 10:50||   2023-06-24 10:50|| Front Page Top

#36 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 10:52||   2023-06-24 10:52|| Front Page Top

#37 The dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed.

I can see that becoming a Rantburg catchphrase.

A number of voices in the West have been advocating for regime change in Russian. I am guessing their genius plans did not include Prigozhin (or better yet Kadyrov) as The Next Guy.
Posted by SteveS 2023-06-24 10:56||   2023-06-24 10:56|| Front Page Top

#38 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 11:04||   2023-06-24 11:04|| Front Page Top

#39 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 11:11||   2023-06-24 11:11|| Front Page Top

#40 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 11:15||   2023-06-24 11:15|| Front Page Top

#41 Based on the reporting, it appears as if the Air Force is sitting this out.
Posted by The Walking Unvaxed 2023-06-24 11:28||   2023-06-24 11:28|| Front Page Top

#42 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 11:36||   2023-06-24 11:36|| Front Page Top

#43 Putin: Let's invade Ukraine to start re-establishing the Soviet Russian Empire.

Law of Unintended Consequences: Sure thing, Tovarisch
Posted by Mercutio 2023-06-24 11:49||   2023-06-24 11:49|| Front Page Top

#44 First Wagner units have reportedly reached Moscow region
Posted by DarthVader 2023-06-24 12:11||   2023-06-24 12:11|| Front Page Top

#45 Several shots fired near HQ of Russian Southern Military District in Rostov
Posted by DarthVader 2023-06-24 12:26||   2023-06-24 12:26|| Front Page Top

#46 Badanov - you're having an entirely too good of time. "Dildo of Consequences" made me *snort*
Posted by Frank G 2023-06-24 12:43||   2023-06-24 12:43|| Front Page Top

#47 Biden, as I recall, wants regime change in Moscow. If he gets Prigozhin, he might learn to be more careful about what he asks for.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2023-06-24 13:15||   2023-06-24 13:15|| Front Page Top

#48 Doooooche bag and wannabe Maverick McCain, Lassie Graham, just needs to keep his gob shut, but it's much too late, I suppose.
Posted by DooDahMan 2023-06-24 13:25||   2023-06-24 13:25|| Front Page Top

#49 

Thoughts?
Posted by NoMoreBS 2023-06-24 13:28||   2023-06-24 13:28|| Front Page Top

#50 So....is this the operation to denazify Russia? Or is the reverse?
Posted by Silentbrick 2023-06-24 13:30||   2023-06-24 13:30|| Front Page Top

#51 Lukashenka had talks with Prigozhin, agreed to halt Wagner PMC advance

Chief of PMC Wagner Prigozhin confirmed he returning his troops to the bases
Posted by DarthVader 2023-06-24 13:37||   2023-06-24 13:37|| Front Page Top

#52 Reporting that Wagner Group is turning around and returning to original bases.

Wagner chief has ordered his mercenaries to halt their march on Moscow to avoid shedding Russian blood - AP

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/with_replies
Posted by NoMoreBS 2023-06-24 13:38||   2023-06-24 13:38|| Front Page Top

#53 Or is the reverse?

Russify nazia?

My head hurts.
Posted by M. Murcek  2023-06-24 13:40||   2023-06-24 13:40|| Front Page Top

#54 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 14:15||   2023-06-24 14:15|| Front Page Top

#55 Seriously, Evgeniy Viktorovich, Volodya already has provided Infinity Ward with 10 years worth of new material.
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 14:22||   2023-06-24 14:22|| Front Page Top

#56 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 14:25||   2023-06-24 14:25|| Front Page Top

#57 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 14:27||   2023-06-24 14:27|| Front Page Top

#58 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 14:27||   2023-06-24 14:27|| Front Page Top

#59 I see Putin finally added the proper amount of 0's to the number. Russians can't even have a proper coup.
Posted by Silentbrick 2023-06-24 14:31||   2023-06-24 14:31|| Front Page Top

#60 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 14:34||   2023-06-24 14:34|| Front Page Top

#61 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 14:36||   2023-06-24 14:36|| Front Page Top

#62 
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 14:40||   2023-06-24 14:40|| Front Page Top

#63 Prigozhin returns to base:

Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 14:46||   2023-06-24 14:46|| Front Page Top

#64 Dude, I'm amazed that at this point ANYONE would think the CIA is competent enough to orchestrate anything like this in Russia. Hell, I don't even believe the CIA is spying on or doing anything in any country but ours.

Mossad? Hell yeah I think they could do it. But it's not them. Just Putin wanting to avoid paying his Wagner PMC bill and finding out happens when you try to stiff your mercenaries of their pay.
Posted by Silentbrick 2023-06-24 15:05||   2023-06-24 15:05|| Front Page Top

#65 The Wagner fold was so sudden, and the lack of real conflict just trigger a question. Was this an elaborate piece of theater to draw out Putin enemies and those who were fence-sitters? Putie KNOWS there is deep-seated resentment and frustration, and this seemed credible enough to draw in world media and major players.
Posted by NoMoreBS 2023-06-24 15:25||   2023-06-24 15:25|| Front Page Top

#66 Interesting observation, Gunny Highway...
Posted by Raj 2023-06-24 15:29||   2023-06-24 15:29|| Front Page Top

#67 My $.02

Prigozhin made his move. Kremlin counted noses and quickly figured out the game was up. Progozhin now runs Russia with Putin retained as figurehead.
Posted by Angstrom 2023-06-24 16:06||   2023-06-24 16:06|| Front Page Top

#68 the rumor now is that Western intel services offered Prigozhin billions in cash for a coup. Prigozhin told Putin, so the show went on. They kept the money.
Posted by badanov 2023-06-24 16:17||   2023-06-24 16:17|| Front Page Top

#69 Prigozhin best stay away from multi-storied buildings and dangling rope.

If you strike at the king, you must kill the king.
Posted by Procopius2k 2023-06-24 16:33||   2023-06-24 16:33|| Front Page Top

#70 /\ Just about any of the above scenarios is possible. Prig may have counted on some of the RU army and air force joining his effort and it didn't happen. Putin may have threatened him with chem or bio weapons. Putin may have made him a deal he couldn't refuse.

I could be wrong, but I doubt the West had anything to do with it. Events unfolded too rapidly. We should learning more in the coming hours and days, not from the Klingons however.


Posted by Besoeker 2023-06-24 16:56||   2023-06-24 16:56|| Front Page Top

#71 Time for a welfare check on Miss Lindsey and the rest of the neo-con "braintrust."
Posted by M. Murcek 2023-06-24 16:58||   2023-06-24 16:58|| Front Page Top

#72 If you strike at the king, you must kill the king.

My belief is that the King and his chef were in cahoots for this 'coup' from the beginning.

Prigozhin saying what Putin can't. Putin acting all angry about Prigozhin's 'treason'. Маскировка

A whole lot of Wagner troops and equipment mobilized in a miraculously short time.

Locals digging up the roads to hamper Wagner progress (probably unexpected).

Lukashenka (??!), another Putin mouthpiece, getting involved in negotiations (possibly because Alexander drools less than Ramzan Kadyrov....and is somewhat understandable when he talks).

Prigozhin getting safe passage to Belarus. No charges for participating Wagner forces.

I wonder if Shoigu and Gerasimov survive this.
Posted by Mullah Richard 2023-06-24 17:29||   2023-06-24 17:29|| Front Page Top

#73  Was this an elaborate piece of theater to draw out Putin enemies and those who were fence-sitters?

Well, it sure got Enver's attention.
Posted by Abu Uluque 2023-06-24 17:30||   2023-06-24 17:30|| Front Page Top

#74 I am absolutely not qualified to comment on events in Russia, so I’ll just keep watching silently from my corner while the rest of you are informative.

But with regard to Mossad? Hell yeah I think they could do it. — it seems to me that Mossad does small, quiet operations, even in biggish countries like Iran, and so would not be useful in staging a coup like this. Emptying out a warehouse storing the entire files of a nuclear program under the noses of the Iranian army? Getting the entire phone book of Hezbollah in Lebanon or the Criss-Cross directory of the Gaza Strip so they can warn precisely the address about to receive a targetted missile that they need to vacate the premises right now? Sure. But those are very different kinds of operations.
Posted by trailing wife 2023-06-24 19:11||   2023-06-24 19:11|| Front Page Top

#75 The missile strikes that killed so many Wagner troops may have been an attempt to stop the coup attempt before it happened. Prigozhin knowing he was in jeopardy launched the coup and began negotiations immediately.
My 2 cents.
Posted by The Walking Unvaxed 2023-06-24 20:37||   2023-06-24 20:37|| Front Page Top

#76 What the hell just happened?
As others upstream have commented, this feels like a clumsy bit of theater. As a coup, it seemed chaotic, poorly planned and unlikely to succeed. My spider sense is tingling.

Now it is over. Apparently. But not a whole lot seems to have changed. Although, as someone pointed out, a big mass of hardened troops have been moved from the south up to the Belgorod region near Kharkiv under the pretext of attacking Moscow.

So lame-ass coup, brilliant military theater or just another day in Mother Russia?
Posted by SteveS 2023-06-24 22:38||   2023-06-24 22:38|| Front Page Top

23:58 Jiggs Jins6580
23:55 Jiggs Jins6580
23:42 Fat Bob Thrart2867
23:37 Fat Bob Thrart2867
22:52 Besoeker
22:38 SteveS
21:57 trailing wife
21:24 trailing wife
21:21 trailing wife
20:37 The Walking Unvaxed
19:53 NoMoreBS
19:52 jpal
19:41 Airandee
19:11 trailing wife
18:48 Anomalous Sources
18:40 DooDahMan
18:05 Frank G
17:46 Dale
17:44 Besoeker
17:30 Abu Uluque
17:29 Mullah Richard
17:14 Besoeker
17:04 Besoeker
16:58 M. Murcek
Merry-Go-Blog










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