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2022-06-23 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

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Posted by badanov 2022-06-23 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [11125 views ] Top

#1 Just saw video from The Sun taken during the past 24-48 hours of Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk successfully engaging Russian troops that completely contradicts this Russian article.

Posted by Black Charlie Slairt1430 2022-06-23 03:47|| 2022-06-23 03:47|| Front Page Top

#2 I'm not going to rely on just the Ukrainian version of events.

Posted by badanov 2022-06-23 08:22|| 2022-06-23 08:22|| Front Page Top

#3 The situation for Ukraine and NATO is far worse than is being reported. It's not just Ukraine that is "outgunned"; as Alexander Vershinin of the Royal United Service few Institute makes clear, the Russians have an extraordinary military-industrial advantage over NATO in production of ammunition, artillery shells and missiles.

Vershinin's conclusion, published June 9, 2022 in his article, "The Return of Industrial Warfare":

"The war in Ukraine demonstrates that war between peer or near-peer adversaries demands the existence of a technically advanced, mass scale, industrial-age production capability. The Russian onslaught consumes ammunition at rates that massively exceed US forecasts and ammunition production."

Vershinin points out that the Russian military-industrial base outproduces that of the US by an order of magnitude -- and this lead is increasing -- in those basic categories that will determine the outcome of this or any conventional conflict with Russia in Europe:

"The Capacity of the West’s Industrial Base

The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.

Presently, the US is decreasing its artillery ammunition stockpiles. In 2020, artillery ammunition purchases decreased by 36% to $425 million. In 2022, the plan is to reduce expenditure on 155mm artillery rounds to $174 million. This is equivalent to 75,357 M795 basic ‘dumb’ rounds for regular artillery, 1,400 XM1113 rounds for the M777, and 1,046 XM1113 rounds for Extended Round Artillery Cannons. Finally, there are $75 million dedicated for Excalibur precision-guided munitions that costs $176K per round, thus totaling 426 rounds.

In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.

The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 19:18|| 2022-06-23 19:18|| Front Page Top

#4 The deficit goes far beyond ammunition to include Javelins, Stingers and longer-range missiles.

A crucial "flawed assumption," in Vershinin's telling, was the notion that precision-guided munitions would render large stockpiles of missiles unnecessary. The Ukraine war has belied this.

Flawed Assumptions

"The first key assumption about future of combat is that precision-guided weapons will reduce overall ammunition consumption by requiring only one round to destroy the target. The war in Ukraine is challenging this assumption. Many ‘dumb’ indirect fire systems are achieving a great deal of precision without precision guidance, and still the overall ammunition consumption is massive. Part of the issue is that the digitisation of global maps, combined with a massive proliferation of drones, allows geolocation and targeting with increased precision, with video evidence demonstrating the ability to score first strike hits by indirect fires....

"Unfortunately, this is not only the case with artillery. Anti-tank Javelins and air-defence Stingers are in the same boat. The US shipped 7,000 Javelin missiles to Ukraine – roughly one-third of its stockpile – with more shipments to come. Lockheed Martin produces about 2,100 missiles a year, though this number might ramp up to 4,000 in a few years. Ukraine claims to use 500 Javelin missiles every day.

The expenditure of cruise missiles and theatre ballistic missiles is just as massive. The Russians have fired between 1,100 and 2,100 missiles. The US currently purchases 110 PRISM, 500 JASSM and 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles annually, meaning that in three months of combat, Russia has burned through four times the US annual missile production.

The Russian rate of production can only be estimated. Russia started missile production in 2015 in limited initial runs, and even in 2016 the production runs were estimated at 47 missiles. This means that it had only five to six years of full-scale production. If competition between autocracies and democracies has really entered a military phase, then the arsenal of democracy must radically improve its approach to the production of materiel in wartime

The initial stockpile in February 2022 is unknown, but considering expenditures and the requirement to hold substantial stockpiles back in case of war with NATO, it is unlikely that the Russians are worried. In fact, they seem to have enough to expend operational-level cruise missiles on tactical targets. The assumption that there are 4,000 cruise and ballistic missiles in the Russian inventory is not unreasonable. This production will probably increase despite Western sanctions. In April, ODK Saturn, which makes Kalibr missile motors, announced an additional 500 job openings. This suggests that even in this field, the West only has parity with Russia..."

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 19:29|| 2022-06-23 19:29|| Front Page Top

#5 Late day, Comrade. However - your manager will not be pleased your propaganda didn't hit prime reading time. Sad.

Posted by Frank G 2022-06-23 19:38|| 2022-06-23 19:38|| Front Page Top

#6 The above analysis comports with what another commenter was saying here the other day about the extraordinary decline in US military-industrial spending.

It is clear that the US and UK are rapidly depleting their supplies and are in no position to fight a war with China or Russia (or both).

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 20:13|| 2022-06-23 20:13|| Front Page Top

#7 This in particular is shocking:

"Finally, there is an assumption about overall ammunition consumption rates. The US government has always lowballed this number. From the Vietnam era to today, small arms plants have shrunk from five to just one.

This was glaring at the height of the Iraq war, when the US started to run low on small arms ammunition, causing the US government to buy British and Israeli ammunition during the initial stage of the war. At one point, the US had to dip into Vietnam and even Second World War-era ammo stockpiles of .50 calibre ammunition to feed the war effort.

This was largely the result of incorrect assumptions about how effective US troops would be. Indeed, the Government Accountability Office estimated that it took 250,000 rounds to kill one insurgent. Luckily for the US, its gun culture ensured that small arms ammunition industry has a civilian component in the US. This is not the case with other types of ammunition, as shown earlier with Javelin and Stinger missiles.

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 20:15|| 2022-06-23 20:15|| Front Page Top

#8 Profile of the author:

Lt Col (Retd) Alex Vershinin has 10 years of frontline experience in Korea, Iraq and Afghanistan. For the last decade before his retirement, he worked as a modelling and simulations officer in concept development and experimentation for NATO and the US Army.

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 20:17|| 2022-06-23 20:17|| Front Page Top

#9 I'm sorry, your AgitProp is too late to qualify for today's billing. Please don't add these to any billings for tomorrow or future date, Respectfully.

Posted by Frank G 2022-06-23 21:17|| 2022-06-23 21:17|| Front Page Top

#10 Now I recall the commenter's name: "ZhangFei." He made excellent points, which Lt. Col. Vershinin underscores, about the paucity of funding for the contemporary US military-industrial base.

Vershinin of the Royal United Service Institute also notes the enormous problems created by other aspects of the cure t military-industrial system, such as America's heavy reliance upon just in time manufacturing as well as dependence upon its greatest rival,China, for certain rare earth metals and other crucial inputs.

Vershinin has done an outstanding job. It's a fascinating article, one that serious and intelligent people such as "ZhangFei" would dual to read and ponder.

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 21:47|| 2022-06-23 21:47|| Front Page Top

#11 * aspects of the current US military-industrial system

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 21:48|| 2022-06-23 21:48|| Front Page Top

#12 Thank you for this. Yes it's fascinating and appalling.
Can someone verify whether this is this really true?

...at the height of the Iraq war, when the US started to run low on small arms ammunition, causing the US government to buy British and Israeli ammunition during the initial stage of the war. At one point, the US had to dip into Vietnam and even Second World War-era ammo stockpiles of .50 calibre ammunition to feed the war effort.

This was largely the result of incorrect assumptions about how effective US troops would be. Indeed, the Government Accountability Office estimated that it took 250,000 rounds to kill one insurgent.

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-23 21:54|| 2022-06-23 21:54|| Front Page Top

#13 ^ Yep.

If You Miss the First Time, Try Firing Another 300,000 Rounds

Posted by Pheaque Jitle3185 2022-06-23 22:02|| 2022-06-23 22:02|| Front Page Top

#14 So odd! New anon nyms backing new anon nyms. It's as if...nahhh that would be cynical

Posted by Frank G 2022-06-23 22:12|| 2022-06-23 22:12|| Front Page Top

#15 Great trolls have little trolls upon their backs to quote 'em,
And little trolls have lesser trolls, and so ad infinotum.

Posted by SteveS 2022-06-23 22:31|| 2022-06-23 22:31|| Front Page Top

#16 LOL Steve.

Oil Derek has assured us that he doesn't care who wins in Ukraine, as long as we recognize our stupidity in sanctioning Russia. So imagine my surprise to see him here. It's a real discontinuity.

Posted by Matt 2022-06-23 22:37|| 2022-06-23 22:37|| Front Page Top

#17 What's your problem, Frank?

Posted by Pheaque Jitle3185 2022-06-23 22:38|| 2022-06-23 22:38|| Front Page Top

#18 hedoesn't care who wins in Ukraine

Lots of people don't care who wins over there.
What's your problem?

Posted by Pheaque Jitle3185 2022-06-23 22:40|| 2022-06-23 22:40|| Front Page Top

#19 Their problem is with complexity. They don't understand the concept of unintended consequences. A persistent failing of American foreign policy for over half a century.

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 22:46|| 2022-06-23 22:46|| Front Page Top

#20 ad infinotum.

Have I mentioned recently that I adore you, SteveS? Your sins are so very interesting. ;-)

After years and years of exposure, Frank G has become cynical, Pheaque Jitle3185.

Posted by trailing wife 2022-06-23 22:51|| 2022-06-23 22:51|| Front Page Top

#21 Oil Derek has assured us that he doesn't care who wins in Ukraine, as long as we recognize our stupidity in sanctioning Russia.

If Ukraine could win without destroying our economy, sure Is be glad to support that. But that ain't what's happening. Biden's war is a package deal. The sanctions are a bad joke. Wyle E Coyote and his Acme rocket stuff.

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-23 22:51|| 2022-06-23 22:51|| Front Page Top

#22 And Putin fully understood the consequences of invading Ukraine, Jean Paul?

Posted by Matt 2022-06-23 22:58|| 2022-06-23 22:58|| Front Page Top

#23 Biden's war is a package deal. The sanctions are a bad joke. Wyle E Coyote and his Acme rocket stuff.

LOL. Biden is incapable of thinking even one step ahead. Whatever one thinks of Putin, he and his finance team obviously anticipated (even more) sanctions and were well prepared for them. They've been managing the sanctions fallout for 8 years.

Even Trump increased the sanctions pressure on Russia. It is impossible for anyone sentient to argue that US sanctions were not anticipated by Putin.

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 23:06|| 2022-06-23 23:06|| Front Page Top

#24 In fact one could argue that Putin and his finance ministers probably saw a big opportunity to screw the West and blunt any sanctions last summer, when the new American administration signaled it wanted to strangle the US oil industry.

Remember that one of the damaging blows suffered by the USSR in the mid-1980s was the collapse in the oil price.

Oil prices higher than $90/barrel give Russian leaders many more foreign policy options than they have when the oil price is below $50.

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 23:12|| 2022-06-23 23:12|| Front Page Top

#25 Has anything happened in Ukraine that Putin did not correctly anticipate?

Posted by Matt 2022-06-23 23:20|| 2022-06-23 23:20|| Front Page Top

#26 What kind of question is that?

It's as if someone here kept nagging you to say one thing good about the Biden Administration. How would you respond to such foolishness?

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 23:23|| 2022-06-23 23:23|| Front Page Top

#27 Oil prices higher than $90/barrel give Russian leaders many more foreign policy options than they have when the oil price is below $50.

Gulf oil nations, including Iran, too.

Posted by trailing wife 2022-06-23 23:25|| 2022-06-23 23:25|| Front Page Top

#28 Not exactly. The Saudis are the world's major swing producer. A price maker rather than a price taker. They can move prices up or down as it suits them. Russia is developing into a price maker as well.

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-23 23:29|| 2022-06-23 23:29|| Front Page Top

#29 ^ ... which is why Biden is flying off to Riyadh to lick MBS's ass

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-23 23:31|| 2022-06-23 23:31|| Front Page Top

#30 #26 It's the kind of question that you can't answer without getting in trouble. I can say anything I want to about Biden, good or bad. Go ahead, say one bad thing about Putin. Maybe you didn't like the tie he wore to the May Day Parade?

Posted by Matt 2022-06-23 23:32|| 2022-06-23 23:32|| Front Page Top

#31 "Putin like most of the world's leaders lies and steals and is unkind to his rivals."

Now that's enough. Either respond to the substance of the discussion or find another thread.

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 23:35|| 2022-06-23 23:35|| Front Page Top

#32 respond to the substance of the discussion

Back on topic, it's well known that we're badly depleting our weapons stocks. We are extremely vulnerable now. More so than any time I can remember. The Brits are in an even worse position

Posted by Pheaque Jitle3185 2022-06-23 23:39|| 2022-06-23 23:39|| Front Page Top

#33 don't feed the troll, J-P

Posted by Oil Derek 2022-06-23 23:42|| 2022-06-23 23:42|| Front Page Top

#34 c'est un bon conseil!

Posted by Jean-Paul 2022-06-23 23:46|| 2022-06-23 23:46|| Front Page Top

23:46 Jean-Paul
23:42 Oil Derek
23:39 Pheaque Jitle3185
23:35 Jean-Paul
23:32 Matt
23:31 Oil Derek
23:29 Oil Derek
23:25 trailing wife
23:23 Jean-Paul
23:20 Matt
23:18 Anomalous Sources
23:12 Jean-Paul
23:06 Jean-Paul
23:05 swksvolFF
23:04 trailing wife
22:58 Matt
22:51 Oil Derek
22:51 trailing wife
22:46 Jean-Paul
22:40 Pheaque Jitle3185
22:38 trailing wife
22:38 Pheaque Jitle3185
22:37 Matt
22:31 SteveS
Merry-Go-Blog