Article

2012-11-24 Afghanistan

Taliban seen as unlikely to overrun Afghanistan

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred 2012-11-24 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [11134 views ] Top
File under: Taliban

#1 At the heavily guarded Isaf headquarters in Kabul, Brig Gen Günter Katz, the Isaf spokesperson, drew a picture of improving security across much of Afghanistan.

A military assessment from a German general in a heavily guarded bunker of the capital ?

Posted by Besoeker 2012-11-24 01:07|| 2012-11-24 01:07|| Front Page Top

#2 Besoeker, you owe me for coffee free keyboard.

Posted by g(r)omgoru 2012-11-24 01:12|| 2012-11-24 01:12|| Front Page Top

#3 The Taliban don't have to 'overrun' anything to return to power. Karzai's invitation still stands.

Mullah Omar isn't a member of the Kabul government because he doesn't want to be. That might change after 2014.

Get ready for Afghan foreign minister Mullah Omar's visit to the UN. Protected by the US Secret Service, paid by US danegeld he'll pray in the Ground Zero Mosque and gloat over the actual Ground Zero.

It will be clear then who won and who lost the 9/11 war.

Posted by Elmerert Hupens2660 2012-11-24 03:25|| 2012-11-24 03:25|| Front Page Top

#4 The Afghan populace are like the ultimate battered spouse (and there are many in that neck of the woods). Her screwed-up personality and warped morals mean she won't respect a guy who treats her well. Eventually he'll give up trying to save her from her self-abusive nature and drug habit. He'll move out, and the nastiest PoS around (in this case a neighbour's son) will move straight in, thus restoring the natural order.

Posted by Bulldog 2012-11-24 04:50|| 2012-11-24 04:50|| Front Page Top

#5 Depends on how much money and support Pakistan and Saudi give the Taliban.

Posted by Paul D 2012-11-24 05:11|| 2012-11-24 05:11|| Front Page Top

#6 Depends on how much money and support Pakistan and Saudi give the Taliban.

Depends on how much money Uncle Sam gives the Afghan government. Najibullah's government collapsed because Yeltsin stopped supplying him with oil. While Taliban attacks will continue to be a problem for a decades, I can't see how the Afghan government collapses without the kind of global embargo that was imposed on Najibullah. Any established government has significant advantages vis-a-vis a guerrilla movement. Unless the Pakis sends a large conventional force a la the NVA in 1975, I don't see the Afghan government falling over, any more than the Iraqi government has.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-11-24 08:34|| 2012-11-24 08:34|| Front Page Top

#7 Depends on how much money Uncle Sam gives the Afghan government
Maybe not, ZF.
Afghanistan to back Pakistan if wars with U.S.: Karzai

Posted by tipper 2012-11-24 12:06|| 2012-11-24 12:06|| Front Page Top

#8 In other words, half a year after we're gone.

Posted by Charles 2012-11-24 15:58|| 2012-11-24 15:58|| Front Page Top

#9 Look, America's ruling political clique has decided not to win in Afghanistan, so we should get the hell out. ASAP.

Posted by Mikey Hunt 2012-11-24 16:42|| 2012-11-24 16:42|| Front Page Top

#10 In other words, half a year after we're gone.

If we cut off aid, Karzai will either be in exile or dead 30 seconds after we're gone. The Afghan government will probably muddle along. Short of a Pakistani invasion, I can't see the Taliban winning. The reason the Taliban won in the first place was a combination of an all against all civil war among the mujahideen and Pakistani sponsorship of the Taliban. Unless the Afghan government breaks up into warlord fiefdoms that spend most of their time fighting each other, the Taliban will lose.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-11-24 20:14|| 2012-11-24 20:14|| Front Page Top

#11 I vote for dead. The backstabbing caped drugged crusader should be made to endure the future he's helped create. I'd have rooted for Dostum - no Talib/Pashtun friend

Posted by Frank G 2012-11-24 20:16|| 2012-11-24 20:16|| Front Page Top

#12 Ultimately our presence in Afghanistan is preventing the Afghan government from resorting to the draconian measures of the kind the Sri Lankan government implemented against the rebel Tamilians. While an invasion was necessary to topple the Taliban and mop up al Qaeda and several-year occupation was necessary to stabilize the Afghan government, our continued presence is preventing the population adjustments that need to occur to ensure a lasting peace.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-11-24 20:20|| 2012-11-24 20:20|| Front Page Top

#13 Please, Robert. The government of Sri Lanka was not Tamil, as the Kabul "Regime" is Pashtun

Posted by Frank G 2012-11-24 21:15|| 2012-11-24 21:15|| Front Page Top

#14 The government of Sri Lanka was not Tamil, as the Kabul "Regime" is Pashtun

The Kabul government is composed of non-Pashtuns overlaid with Pashtun figureheads (at American insistence). That is why when US aid is cut off, Karzai and the Pashtun mafia will go into exile or be disappeared.

Posted by Zhang Fei 2012-11-24 21:24|| 2012-11-24 21:24|| Front Page Top

#15 I swear, our guiding principles on handling counter-insurgency should be "What would the Romans do?"

Posted by Silentbrick - Schlumberger Squishy Mud Division 2012-11-24 21:35|| 2012-11-24 21:35|| Front Page Top

#16 "What would the Romans do?"
IIRC, after they soaked up the easy pickings, they taxed & spent themselves to death.
Oh, never mind.

Posted by Anguper Hupomosing9418 2012-11-24 22:44|| 2012-11-24 22:44|| Front Page Top

22:46 MIkey Hunt
22:44 Anguper Hupomosing9418
22:38 JosephMendiola
22:17 rjschwarz
22:15 JosephMendiola
22:07 European Conservatives
22:02 JosephMendiola
21:46 JosephMendiola
21:35 Silentbrick - Schlumberger Squishy Mud Division
21:26 JosephMendiola
21:24 JosephMendiola
21:24 Zhang Fei
21:15 Frank G
21:15 Kevin dubai11
21:14 JosephMendiola
21:07 Nimble Spemble
20:20 Zhang Fei
20:16 Frank G
20:14 Zhang Fei
20:10 Gail Follard dubai11
19:33 Frank G
19:31 KBK
19:25 KBK
19:21 dubai11 daniel schnur
Merry-Go-Blog