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2010-11-23 China-Japan-Koreas
North Korea Fires Rockets at Island
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Posted by tipper 2010-11-23 02:17|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [11127 views ]  Top

#1 More details from Reuters:
A witness said residents of the island of Yeonpyeong, off the west coast of the peninsula near a disputed maritime border, had been evacuated.

Yonhap news agency said four South Korean soldiers had been wounded in the shelling, the biggest attack in years.

YTN television quoted a witness as saying 60 to 70 houses were on fire after the shelling and TV footage showed plumes of smoke coming from the island. It said a South Korean fighter jet had been deployed to the west coast after the shelling.

"Houses and mountains are on fire and people are evacuating. You can't see very well because of plumes of smoke," a witness on the island told YTN.

"People are frightened to death and shelling continues as we speak," the witness said.

News of the exchange of fire sent the won tumbling in offshore markets with the 1-month won down in NDF trading.

The impact was felt internationally, with U.S. 10-year Treasury futures rising and the Japanese yen falling.

South Korea's military confirmed the exchange of firing, without providing more details.
Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2010-11-23 02:23||   2010-11-23 02:23|| Front Page Top

#2 The revelation of the secret enrichment facility, and Japan's harsh reaction, could well have convinced the new North Korean leadership that patience with their stalling and evasion is about to run out, conciliatory words from the US not withstanding.
Posted by Atomic Conspiracy 2010-11-23 02:34||   2010-11-23 02:34|| Front Page Top

#3 This will continue until Junior (or someone else) has a firm hold on power.
Posted by gorb 2010-11-23 02:34||   2010-11-23 02:34|| Front Page Top

#4 IMHO this looks more serious than the usual two-year-old temper tantrum from the Norks - especially coming on the heels of their arrogant unveiling of their nuclear capabilities.

This smacks of Chinese proxy war to me

The middle kingdom is pretty cranky about pressure to float Yuan, improve human rights.

i bet it suspects the US is behind the Nobel Peace prize being given to that Chinese dissident too

that is a loss of face issue for the Yellow Peril. Asians don't like that - it goes with the shame-honour culture.

North Korea cannot eat without China. Cannot breathe without China. Cannot build nuke facilities without China. It is the beating stick of China.

they would not be so arrogant if not given the green light from Beijing.

Beijing might want to show the US just who is boss in the pacific now that the US is broke and its military stretched over Af-Pak // Iraq

If China is pushed too much in a direction it doesn't want to go, it might let NK set off a suitcase nuke in the West, just to get its point across

or let them start a war with SK so the US military would be stretched again to a third theatre of war

Posted by anon1 2010-11-23 07:21||   2010-11-23 07:21|| Front Page Top

#5 What anon1 says sounds about right to me.
Posted by Glenmore 2010-11-23 07:48||   2010-11-23 07:48|| Front Page Top

#6 Yes anon, I agree that this is part indirect retaliation from the PRC and also it is intended to show Chinese and Nork contempt for Obama and Hillery.

The suitcase nuke is, however, not a strong possibility. The technology required is pretty high.

A dirty bomb is more likely.
Posted by lord garth 2010-11-23 07:52||   2010-11-23 07:52|| Front Page Top

#7 If China is pushed too much in a direction it doesn't want to go, it might let NK set off a suitcase nuke in the West, just to get its point across

Obama or not, that would be total war, and I don't see China risking total war over floating the yuan. They view the 21st century as their century as long as they don't screw it up.
Posted by Steve White 2010-11-23 07:54||   2010-11-23 07:54|| Front Page Top

#8 to the brink of a nuke war to establish your manhood, Kim? Pussy
Posted by Frank G 2010-11-23 08:15||   2010-11-23 08:15|| Front Page Top

#9 What the Chinese are blind to, as well the our own Beltway, is that the American people can act. The influence of the Tea Party in two short years provides a warning that a populists boycott could hammer a lot of planning by all the big players just as economics are at the edge.
Posted by Procopius2k 2010-11-23 08:30||   2010-11-23 08:30|| Front Page Top

#10 Chinese opinion is just like American opinion, all over the map. Ultimately the US and EUrope are the goose that has laid the golden egg of two decades of Chinese prosperity and entry to the highest levels of world power. Are they about to kill the goose that laid that golden egg? For what? The Chinese are not totally ignorant of 20th century history. China in a major war would not end well for anyone.

gorb has this right. But the SORKs should play tit for tat hardball. This BS gets out of hand fast. They under reacted to the sub attack and they should not make the same mistake twice.
Posted by Nimble Spemble 2010-11-23 08:44||   2010-11-23 08:44|| Front Page Top

#11 I agree with Steve White. The Chinese prefer a long term strategy,

My bet is on an internal power struggle in NK
Posted by European Conservative 2010-11-23 09:07||   2010-11-23 09:07|| Front Page Top

#12 If China is involved, then rather in the sense of "Look how important we are in keeping the region quiet."

NK will back down soon and I guess South Korea is smart enough to avoid escalation
Posted by European Conservative 2010-11-23 09:10||   2010-11-23 09:10|| Front Page Top

#13 The Sydney Morning Herald reported:

NORTH KOREA has burnished the leadership credentials of its 26-year-old dictator-in-waiting with a deadly artillery attack on South Korean territory, causing its neighbour to return fire and scramble F-16 fighters.

A North Korea expert at Beijing’s Central Party School, Zhang Liangui, told the Herald that Kim Jong-un was deliberately destabilising the environment in order to mobilise the military and consolidate his power.
Posted by Glenmore 2010-11-23 09:16||   2010-11-23 09:16|| Front Page Top

#14 Hildebeast has done a wonderful job for our Nobel Peace Prize winning President. With the continued assist provided the Chinks by the Democracts (plunging America into debt and selling the debt to China-Obama and the Dem Congress, Mr Hildebeast selling advanced missile technology to the Chinese and equipment), with the new Military and Economic power, China can now do whatever the hell it wants.
Posted by Tarzan Unolumble3922 2010-11-23 09:34||   2010-11-23 09:34|| Front Page Top

#15 As someone said elsewhere, leave a crater that can be seen from space.

After all, Obama just signed NEW START with the Russians, so we suddenly have all these extra nukes that we have to get rid of one way or the other. Just sayin' ...
Posted by Steve White 2010-11-23 09:40||   2010-11-23 09:40|| Front Page Top

#16 The area...

Posted by tu3031 2010-11-23 10:41||   2010-11-23 10:41|| Front Page Top

#17 It might be a good idea for Taiwan to have a practice security drill. Just sayin'. Someplace on the far side of the island. With its forces widely dispersed.
Posted by  Anonymoose 2010-11-23 11:04||   2010-11-23 11:04|| Front Page Top

#18 I spoke with a guy who is from China, and he is of the opinion that China tolerates Korea because the sum of their antics so far has been in China's favor.

So I'm guessing the Norks are probably about two or three bad moves away from getting seriously spanked by the Chinese. Or one really bad move.

The attack on the Cheonan does not really work against China. This artillery attack does not really work against China. People might say that China is behind this, but they can't prove it, and will back down from the bluster in the end.

Sure the nuke thing is working against China a bit, but it works even more against the US. The existance of this nuke program costs us money, effort and reputation.

I wonder if the Chinese feel that the Norks are sure to fail, or if they are factoring in Iran being a partner of the Norks. Maybe they are OK with Iran helping the Norks because Iran is sending China oil, and China figures they will just stomp the Norks flat when the day comes if they don't fail all by themselves before then. It seems that China doesn't care if Iran has nukes.

I won't be fun for China when their useful idiot suddenly shows up with fangs, but they will deal with it.
Posted by gorb 2010-11-23 11:51||   2010-11-23 11:51|| Front Page Top

#19 It's only going to get hotter. The "new normal" with NK pounding SK with artillary, 20 minutes of US Government web traffic being diverted to China, and an "unexplained" ICBM plume rising up out of the ocean 35 miles off the coast of L.A. Heralds a new, deadly "new normal" for America.
Posted by wr 2010-11-23 12:28||   2010-11-23 12:28|| Front Page Top

#20 gorb: Don't underestimate the Cheonan factor. The South is still -1, and a big -1 as far as revenge goes. And the Koreans are big believers in revenge. This attack, even with a response, puts them down to -2.

At this point, the Skor are just looking for an excuse. If the Norks try it on one more time, there is likely going to be some major bloodshed.

Playground rules. When two small in stature boys want to fight, even a big boy can get nailed a good one if he tries to get in the way.
Posted by  Anonymoose 2010-11-23 12:30||   2010-11-23 12:30|| Front Page Top

#21 Yeah, but it would be WW III for both of them if they go at it. Half of Seoul would be gone. All that would be left of Pyongyang would be just a memory. So they will avoid all-out war unless someone makes a mistake.

Psychologically speaking, withholding aid might give the South the needed feeling of revenge.

Thereby prolonging the conflict.

And throwing the ball back in China's court.

Then again, maybe the South would go for the decapitation strike ....
Posted by gorb 2010-11-23 12:39||   2010-11-23 12:39|| Front Page Top

#22 This is the fruit of the policy of appeasement and weakness. Then Norks understand power. That is how you deal with them. Now they are again at the old playbook of causing mischief and threatening doom if you do not give them a handout. Playing catch-up is a pain.
Posted by Alaska Paul 2010-11-23 13:19||   2010-11-23 13:19|| Front Page Top

#23 very interesting. all. It is true NK is China's useful idiot
affording it plausible deniability while being a valued irritant to stick it to the West.

The China gets to ride in to save the day, reigning in their crazed neighbour.

"You need us to help you over Korea, so don't threaten us over our cheating trade policy of a low-ball Yuan, or Taiwan" they can say to the US.

Ignoring NK and cutting off the aid makes them even more dependent on China and inspiring even more of the devil-may-care attitude in this puppet of the Middle Kingdom.

Not that giving them any aid is the answer: no!

This does look like the start of something more serious.... yes maybe internal struggles are the cause but I still think the root cause is the green light from Beijing

Yes I think the suitcase nuke not the avenue

But I do think starting a border war with SK suits both China and the NKs.

With succession issues nothing unifies the population better than an external enemy anyway. The time seems right?

US dollar up, bonds up, flight to safety on international markets.

I suspect the best response would be public and very obvious restraint now from SK but lay the war plans well. Go onto a war footing immediately.

Wait for strike 3 - public and obvious aggression from NK then hit it with Thor's mighty war hammer, such a blow that they never will recover. So quickly that China has no chance to get involved. A 24-hour war that just obliterates all traces of the NK regime.

We would have a different world.
Posted by anon1 2010-11-23 17:33||   2010-11-23 17:33|| Front Page Top

#24 I still think the root cause is the green light from Beijing

The guy I was talking to was of the opinion that the Norks do not consult that much with China before an "event".

So maybe it was more of the lack of a red light.

Maybe the Chinese and the Norks kind of just work this way to give the Chinese another level of deniability?

Personally, I think we could get away with pounding on the Norks a bit without raising many eyebrows. Maybe sink their subs or bomb the crap out of one of any artillery batteries that can hit Yeonpyeong island. The Chinese would pretend they don't like it, but it would be no skin off their nose. It might even push the Norks into line a bit so they consult with the Chinese more.

That said, if this is all about a successful power shift to Junior, I guess what we do could very well have influence on who assumes power after Kimmie dies. Do we want Junior in power? Do we want the military in power? Who else might assume power? Who would be more likely to play nice with the neighbors and not push Japan and the South into nuclearizing?

Is Kimmie the one calling the shots here and giving credit to Junior? Is it Junior? Is this just another incident set off by hypersensitivity, or did the Norks know this exercise was coming up and someone decided to take advantage of it?
Posted by gorb 2010-11-23 23:14||   2010-11-23 23:14|| Front Page Top

23:42 gorb
23:37 gorb
23:36 SteveS
23:33 gorb
23:31 gorb
23:14 KBK
23:14 gorb
22:43 Frank G
22:37 Alaska Paul
22:35 abu do you love
22:25 Redneck Jim
22:21 Frank G
22:16 M. Murcek
22:12 anon1
22:09 Redneck Jim
22:09 Frank G
21:57 anon1
21:54 anon1
21:49 anon1
21:49 KBK
21:46 anon1
21:41 pan
21:34 bigjim-CA
21:23 Frank G
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