Article

2008-03-30 Iraq

Shiite Militias Cling to Swaths of Basra and Stage Raids

Archived material is restricted to Rantburg regulars and members. If you need access email fred.pruitt=at=gmail.com with your nick to be added to the members list. There is no charge to join Rantburg as a member.

Posted by Fred 2008-03-30 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [1742 views ] Top
File under: Mahdi Army

1 Well, this sucks. Iraqi government getting their asses kicked by Tater and his tots. So much for the idea that they can hold their own.

Posted by gromky 2008-03-30 02:00|| 2008-03-30 02:00|| Front Page Top

2 Looks like the Iraq gov't has become too much of a US-style democracy if they already have their own fifth column at work with MSM support.

Give the IA a chance. They'll probably need air support if they choose to fight in front of the women and children instead of from behind them.

Posted by gorb 2008-03-30 03:27|| 2008-03-30 03:27|| Front Page Top

3 click the link. Its the NYSLIMES

The distortions about desertions etc. I attribute to the first precepts of MSM Orthodoxy. sic; Gloom, Doom and always twist the facts while praying for America's defeat.

Posted by RD">RD 2008-03-30 03:57|| 2008-03-30 03:57|| Front Page Top

4 By Bill Roggio

Mahdi Army taking significant casualties in Baghdad, South

With the fifth day of fighting in Baghdad, Basrah and the South completed, the Mahdi Army has suffered major losses over the past 36 hours. The Mahdi Army has not faired well over the past five days of fighting, losing an estimated two percent of its combat power, using the best case estimate for the size of the militia.

A look at the open source press reports from the US and Iraqi military and the established newspapers indicates 145 Mahdi Army fighters were killed, 81 were wounded, 98 were captured, and 30 surrendered during the past 36 hours.

Since the fighting began on Tuesday 358 Mahdi Army fighters were killed, 531 were wounded, 343 were captured, and 30 surrendered. The US and Iraqi security forces have killed 125 Mahdi Army fighters in Baghdad alone, while Iraqi security forces have killed 140 Mahdi fighters in Basra.

While the size of the Mahdi Army is a constant source of debate, media accounts often put the Mahdi Army at anywhere from 40,000 to 60,000 fighters. With an estimated 1,000 Mahdi fighters killed, captured, wounded and surrendered, the Mahdi Army has taken an attrition rate of 1.5 to 2.5 percent over the past five days.

The political front

The major political parties in the ruling Coalition remain united in supporting the offensive against the Mahdi Army and the Iranian-backed Special Groups cells. President Jalal Talabani and Massoud Barazani, the president of the Kurdish Regional Government reiterated their support for the operation on Friday, while Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki ratcheted up the rhetoric against the Shia terror groups.

Maliki called the Shia terrorists "worse than al Qaeda" and vowed to remain in Basrah until the operation is completed. "Our determination is strong ... those who break the law are punished, and those who draw their weapons in the face of the state are punished," Maliki said on Iraqi state television.

Muqtada al Sadr, the leader of the Iranian-backed Mahdi Army currently sheltering in Iran, has called on his militia to keep their weapons in defiance to Maliki's order, and but still calls for negotiated settlement to the fighting as well as civil disobedience. "Muqtada al Sadr asks his followers not to deliver weapons to the government," said Hassan Zargan, a Sadr aide. "Weapons should be turned over only to a government which can expel the (US) occupiers."

The Sadrist movement claimed numerous Iraqi policemen and soldiers are defecting. "Groups of Iraqi troops came to us to lay down their arms," said Sheikh Salam al Afraiji, the leader of the Sadrist movement in eastern Baghdad.

But the spokesman of Baghdad Operations Command denied Iraqi security forces are defecting en masse. "The registered number that we have [defecting to the Sadrists] is that 15 soldiers were able to escape," said Major General Qassim Atta in a briefing today in Baghdad. Atta stressed that there are over 50,000 Iraqi security forces operating in Baghdad, and some level of defections should be expected. Atta also said Maliki has "ordered [the military] to prosecute those soldiers according to the Military Punishments Law."

Fighting in Baghdad remains intense

Some of the heaviest fighting in Iraq is occurring in the Mahdi Army-dominated Shia neighborhoods in Baghdad. The government has extended the around the clock curfew indefinitely in Baghdad until the security situation improves.

The intensity in fighting is reflected in the number of press releases issued by Multinational Forces Iraq over the past 24 hours. The US military has issued six separate press releases on fighting in Baghdad over the past 36 hours, and an additional release from Suwayrah, just south of Baghdad.

Seventy Mahdi Army and Special Groups fighters were killed in a series of clashes with US and Iraqi security forces. The fighting included engagements in and around Sadr City as well as a strike against a Mahdi Army rocket and mortar team in eastern Baghdad.

Basrah

The fighting in Basrah continues as Iraqi forces attempt to dislodge the Mahdi Army from their strongholds in the city. Forty-four Mahdi Army fighters have been killed during fighting in Basrah over the past 24 hours.

McClatchy newspapers reports 39 bodies were taken to the morgue on Saturday. Twenty Mahdi Army fighters were reported killed and another 22 wounded during separate engagements with US and Iraqi forces. Another 22 Mahdi Army fighters were killed by Iraqi Special Operations Forces operating with US Special Forces advisers.

US and British warplanes have begun to conduct strikes against Mahdi Army positions inside Basrah, while the British forces have conducted counter-battery fire against Mahdi Army mortar teams. The Three British battlegroups at the Basrah airport, consisting of 650 men each, are said to be preparing to enter Basrah to support the Iraqi Army and police.

Nasiriyah, Diwaniyah appear to be back under government control

The strategic city of Nasiriyah, which sits at the crossroads of southern Iraq, appears to be back under government control after an unconfirmed report on March 28 that indicated the Mahdi Army was occupying the center of the city. "Security forces controlled the situation in the city's districts and neighborhoods after limited confrontations with the gunmen," said Radi al Rekabi, the media spokesman for the provincial police.

The 24 hour casualty total in Nasiriyah from March 27-28 was 30 killed, including 10 Mahdi Army fighters, four police and 16 civilians killed. Nineteen policemen, 26 civilians and 7 Mahdi fighters were wounded, while another 13 Mahdi fighters were captured.

While there has been few press reports from Diwaniyah, several hundred residents felt the security situation was good enough to hold a rally in the center of the city. More than 200 demonstrators marched in support for Maliki's operation to uproot the Mahdi Army in Basra. Police and tribal militias were also seen patrolling the streets.

Networks disrupted in Babil, Karbala

Iraqi security forces appear to have uprooted two large Mahdi Army networks in the city of Karbala and in Babil province. Iraqi police launched a major operation in Karbala on Friday night. Twelve Mahdi Army fighters were killed, 50 were wounded, and another 30 surrendered, Major General Raed Shakir Jawdat, the operations commander for Karbala told Voices of Iraq. Police also seized 25 missile launchers, 60 rifles, five mortars and a large amount of ammunition, Raed said.

Police have been active in Babil province since the operation in Basrah kicked off on March 25. Eighty-five Mahdi Fighters have been captured and "a large number of gunmen were killed," an unnamed source told Voices of Iraq. The Hillah Special Weapons and Tactics police teams killed 14 Special Groups fighters and wounded 20 on March 28.

Posted by RD">RD 2008-03-30 04:01|| 2008-03-30 04:01|| Front Page Top

5 The reality.
The media perception.
It's like Tet all over again.

Posted by Zebulon Unomolet6509 2008-03-30 05:34|| 2008-03-30 05:34|| Front Page Top

6 How much attrition do these idiots typically need to suffer before they fold? Will they hang around and fight until it is decided or is the IA capable of containing them and forcing them to hang around until they suffer enough to give up? Will they truly capitulate or just turn in their arms and wait for Iranian replacement arms and fight again another day?

I know nothing about these things, but I figure if the IA can contain them, they'll cave when they get to about 20% attrition. Is this reasonable? Will any lessons that they manage to learn stick? The reason I ask is that I don't think the motivation to fight here is religious so much as it is a hybrid of religion and politics, with the majority part being political power disguised as religion.

And I would think the bad guys would start crumbling exponentially at about 20% attrition, about at which point the IA should know most of the useful stuff about the terrain as the locals do, and have neutralized any of their effective use of tunnels, etc..

How would they deal with the remaining 80%? Fingerprint and photograph and watch for repeat offenses?

Posted by gorb 2008-03-30 05:46|| 2008-03-30 05:46|| Front Page Top

7 The question I have is what is will factions of the Iranian army do when their Sadrist proxies get cut to ribbons in Iraq?

Posted by Zebulon Unomolet6509 2008-03-30 05:55|| 2008-03-30 05:55|| Front Page Top

8 You are so right, RD.

From Mike McNally -

Since the surge of US forces began to produce undeniable results last year, the Times, along with the other usual suspects in the anti-war media, has been frantically trying to change the narrative, and identify new metrics by which to measure American failure, both in Iraq and in the wider war on terror.

Among other things weve had the lack of political progress, Blackwater, waterboarding, and now the investigations over CIA interrogation tapes. And all the time the good news from Iraq has been going largely unreported, as the media loses interest in events on the ground.

The media appears to be failing to get its message of doom and gloom by other means through to the American people, however, with one recent poll showing Americans are increasingly optimistic about the outcome in Iraq - an optimism thats matched by the Iraqi people.

But now the media once again has tangible bad news to report. As has often been the case in Iraq over the past five years, the situation in Basra and other militant Shia strongholds is likely to get worse before it gets better. If Sadr decides to fully join the fray, rather than cheering from the sidelines, US forces will finally have to confront him, and if they do its likely that hell suffer the same fate as Al Qaeda has in the Sunni provinces.

Theres no reason why the Iraqis and their US allies shouldnt defeat this latest threat to the countrys future. If would be nice if the New York Times could see its way fit to supporting them for once, or at least refrain from greeting every new setback with barely-concealed glee.

http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/ny-times-shares-a-12-year-olds-view-of-basra/

Posted by doc 2008-03-30 09:51|| 2008-03-30 09:51|| Front Page Top

9 How much attrition do these idiots typically need to suffer before they fold?

My gut feeling says not much. Madhi Army is more criminal than religious. The realization will hit that the days of easy money and women are over and its better to fade away and enjoy the loot and four wives than get killed.

The US and gov forces should concentrate on killing middle and upper leadership targets that control the money and hold the organization together.

Posted by ed 2008-03-30 10:49|| 2008-03-30 10:49|| Front Page Top