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2008-01-23 Israel-Palestine-Jordan

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Posted by phil_b 2008-01-23 13:53|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [1759 views ] Top
File under: Hamas

1 This makes a lot of sense, and is evidence of strategic thinking in Hamas, something I had contemptuously dismissed until now. Vo Nguyen Giap only launched offensives against the French after establishing safe havens in China.

Posted by Rory B. Bellows 2008-01-23 17:00|| 2008-01-23 17:00|| Front Page Top

2 If true, expect that Egypt will respond with significant force. And expect that the world will yawn -- because it's not Israel behaving brutally.

Posted by PlanetDan 2008-01-23 18:17|| 2008-01-23 18:17|| Front Page Top

3 PD, I am not sure how Egypt will respond, maybe a bit wimpy in a short term. But long term, they can't afford to have Hamas dictated from a position of power. It is possible that they are waiting for some plausible casus belli, or it may be in the making.

Posted by Spike Uniter 2008-01-23 18:57|| 2008-01-23 18:57|| Front Page Top

4 Well, I'm not sure if Egypt will respond with force, Planet Dan, for two reasons.

First, there are tight restrictions on the forces Egypt is allowed to deploy in Sinai according to the Camp David accords. There's still a US battalion sitting out there, ostensibly as a monitor. This has created a power vacuum that al Qaeda has taken advantage of in recent years (see the Taba bombings, etc.) Egypt got some souped up police units to monitor the Gaza border, but that was bending the rules as it was. If this as serious as I think, it's going to take armor and artillery to dislodge Hamas. It's a real problem.

Second is political will in Egypt. While autocracies aren't, of course, as sensitive to public opinion as democracies, I don't think it will go over very well on the streets of Cairo if Egyptian troops start cracking down on the Palestinians. It tpobably won't go down so well in the halls of power, either. The Egyptian instinct will be to let it ride for a while -- Hamas isn't an immediate threat to Egypt, and it will serve as a useful opportunity to get more goodies from the Israelis and Americans.

Posted by Rory B. Bellows 2008-01-23 19:16|| 2008-01-23 19:16|| Front Page Top

5 Building on Rory's analysis, National Public Radio reported today there were pro-Palestinian demonstrations in Egypt (presumably Cairo). After half a century of pro-Palestinian/antisemitic propagandizing, the Egyptian govermnment will need a serious casus bellum to go after their pets now while avoiding riots in the streets.

Posted by trailing wife 2008-01-23 21:19|| 2008-01-23 21:19|| Front Page Top

6 just within the past few hours

1. Egypt promised the US it would retake control of the border quickly

2. Egypt promised Hamas they would leave the border open 'as long as there was a humanitarian crises'.

Posted by mhw">mhw 2008-01-23 21:54|| http://hypocrisy-incorporated.blogspot.com/]">[http://hypocrisy-incorporated.blogspot.com/] 2008-01-23 21:54|| Front Page Top

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