Article

2025-11-11 Europe

Projected Muslim Population in European Countries in 2050

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Posted by trailing wife 2025-11-11 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [1813 views ] Top
File under: Moslem Colonists

1 From the comment thread

CTO Larsson
@ctoLarsson
From Grok:

Yes, the map and accompanying percentages in the X post are largely correct. They are based on the Pew Research Center's 2017 report *Europe's Growing Muslim Population*, specifically the "high migration" scenario, which assumes a continuation of elevated refugee inflows from Muslim-majority countries (similar to 2014–2016 levels) through 2050, plus regular migration. This scenario projects the Muslim share of Europe's total population rising to 14% by 2050 (from 4.9% in 2016), with significant variation by country due to differences in current Muslim populations, migration patterns, and demographic trends. The post's figures align closely with Pew's country-level estimates under this scenario (minor rounding differences aside):

These projections remain a common reference point as of late 2025, though real-world migration has fluctuated (e.g., post-2016 restrictions in many EU countries reduced inflows compared to the "high" assumption). More recent analyses, such as those from 2025, still cite Pew's framework without major revisions to these figures.

Yes, the projections explicitly account for differences in the number of children between Muslim and non-Muslim populations. Pew's model incorporates:

- **Higher fertility rates among Muslims**: The total fertility rate (TFR) for Muslim women in Europe was estimated at 2.6 children per woman (2015–2020), compared to 1.6 for non-Muslims—a gap of about one child per woman. This exceeds the replacement level (2.1) for Muslims while falling short for non-Muslims, driving natural population growth for the former even absent migration. The model assumes this gap narrows over time (to 0.7 children by 2045–2050) as second- and third-generation Muslims converge toward host-country norms.
- **Younger age structure amplifying child-bearing**: Muslims in Europe have a median age of 30.4 (vs. 43.8 for non-Muslims), with 27% under age 15 (vs. 15%) and far fewer elderly. This means a larger proportion of Muslims are in prime reproductive years, boosting the impact of higher fertility on overall growth.
- **Integration of these factors**: Projections use cohort-component modeling, tracking births, deaths, and migration by age and religion, with fertility applied differentially by group. New migrants are assumed to adopt the fertility patterns of existing Muslim residents in the destination country.
2:39 AM · Nov 9, 2025

Posted by trailing wife 2025-11-11 00:57|| 2025-11-11 00:57|| Front Page Top

2 You get more of what you subsidize.

Posted by Procopius2k 2025-11-11 06:41|| 2025-11-11 06:41|| Front Page Top

3 We should support more of them killing each other.

Posted by Skidmark 2025-11-11 12:58|| 2025-11-11 12:58|| Front Page Top

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